Your picture seems to be saying we are being coerced by evolutionary forces. — Andrew4Handel
sado-masochists — Andrew4Handel
If one weighs whether one wants to act in a certain way in specific circumstances, and, if the reasons add up so that they mostly want to act that way, then that act would best satisfy their preferences with respect to how they want to act in those specific circumstances. Is this correct? — Aleph Numbers
As I said, I do not use numbers that aren't counts or measurements to describe reality. So, I would not use subjective "probability." It is only a mathematical disguise for prejudice.
What are the odds of the flipped coin landing on edge? — Dfpolis
Pyramids — Yozhura
Money — Yozhura
Circuit board — Yozhura
Clock of life — Yozhura
Thanks, this is what I was trying to articulate. — debd
I got one! Say society turns into a supremacist dystopia where the physically (and I suppose for this example mentally, either of) superior are allowed to live in some "super city" where everything is perfect and the rest of us average folk have to scrounge on the outskirts of barely maintained living complexes. This super city the elite live in is walled off and can be sealed off in an airtight fashion just in case. Now say, in their attempts at security and longevity their defenses end up failing or malfunctioning during an outbreak or major weapons malfunction or a nuclear meltdown, trapping everyone inside and resulting in there being no survivors. Stuff like that could happen. — Outlander
Hope. It is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength, and your greatest weakness. — The Architect (The Matrix)
This is peculiar. Because the probability of reality of O is a subjective probability, therefore the mathematician has to consider the reality probability independent probability from each other.
Let me illustrate. Given a coin of heads and tails on the sides. Given that the coin is tossed, the probability of heads or tails in one toss are equal, at 50% each.
Now. X, Y, and Z each toss the coin once. You say that the probabily of tail is 12.5%, and the probability of heads is also 12.5% of any given ONE toss. That is simply absurd. The probability that the coin will land on heads (or else tails) in each one of the three times of the tosses, is 50% times three tosses, and averaged over three tosses.
If the observation decided to be true is 50-50 by each of X, Y, and Z, then the observation's probability is (50%+50%+50%)/3, just like in the coin toss. — god must be atheist
That is a totally different question than asking if the meter reading was real. The question of reality is ontological, that of what suffices for publication is methodological. — Dfpolis
No, it does not have priority. The presumption is that unless you have a medical history of hallucinations, what you see is really there. Priority goes to relevant questions, not to vague and unsupported possibilities. In the first quotation above, you posed the standard of publication in a peer reviewed journal. No such journal has ever asked me to submit medical records showing I have no history of hallucination or mental illness. — Dfpolis
We are morally certain that our careful observations are correct. Moral certitude means that we can rely on a proposition in good conscience. It does not mean that our belief in it is infallible.
I assign no numerical values to what cannot be counted or measured, because, strictly speaking, it is meaningless to do so. Of course, people do assign probability numbers to their beliefs. One might interpret such probabilities in terms of the odds of a fair bet, but such numbers are not a measure of the probability of a proposition being true, because there is no such probability. If the proposition is meaningful, by which I mean that it asserts some determinable fact, then it is either true or false relative to a determined context. — Dfpolis
It depends on what you mean by "being real." Still, the existence of a third option is irrelevant to what I said.
Your claim is that "X is either y or not y" justifies assigning equal probabilities to y and not y. Since a flipped coin will either land balanced on its edge or not, then (by your logic) there is a 50% chance that it will end on edge. I do not see how you can escape this conclusion. — Dfpolis
We come to understand logical truths, like the principle of non-contradiction, by abstracting from various experiences — Dusty of Sky
contradictions — Dusty of Sky
Ex falso quodlibet is Latin for “from falsehood, anything”. It is also called the principle of explosion. In logic it refers to the principle that when a contradiction can be derived in a system, then any proposition follows. In type theory it is the elimination rule of the empty type. — Google
A lot of species reproduce without the aid of pleasure. Sexual pleasure is most pronounced in humans but not necessary in things like plants and fish. Sexual pleasure has lead to a huge proliferation of pornography which in itself does not lead to reproduction. Pleasure seeking seems somewhat divorced from survival in this sense. — Andrew4Handel
But morality, which is most pronounced in humans seems to be most concerned with welfare/pleasure — Andrew4Handel
Utilitarianism which talks of "the greatest good" seems pleasure based also. — Andrew4Handel
I feel like we need to transcend pleasure as a source of motivation or as an end goal. I am not sure why exactly. But facts don't seem to have any relation to pleasure. The evolutionary picture has been seen at odds with facts. Are our beliefs motivated by survival and success or unemotional reason? — Andrew4Handel
Personally I don't know what to pursue. Should I pursue pleasure or some other kind of state of enlightenment? — Andrew4Handel
For example, your reaction to this. Pride in one's work can be excellent for the creation of anything from a vaccine to a great work of art. It is an emotional assessment and most highly skilled people will have pride. Of course there is problematic pride, but in your response it is as if these emotions are necessarily metaphorically the equivalent of a car crash. Disgust is something we evolved to protect us from, for example, disease and also to enforce social norms. It creates societal cohesion. Obviously if one differs with others about what is disgusting (and what is moral) one can consider their disgust wrong. But likely we accept our own. It is part of being a culture/group. Jealousy is, just on my gut (emotional:razz: ) reaction, the trickiest. Now as I hone in more with my analytical mind I still think it is the most likely to be problematic, however it is a natural byproduct of the strong feelings of attraction/love we feel for certain people. In a philosophy forum, I can't really see it being helpful — Coben
No; there is clearly something being weighed here, the observation is "real".
However, the proposition that I have N kilograms of gold needs further investigation to confirm.
Is the difference clear now? — Mijin
The probability will depend on the specifics of what's being measured and how. It's something calculated, not something known apriori from the number of alternatives. — Mijin
No it's not calculated like that. Can you respond to the argument I just made, refuting this (with the cookie example) — Mijin
If there are cookie crumbs on your shirt, I'm 80% confident you did it. If your fingerprints are on the cookie jar, 50%. But if I see both things, then by your logic, it's somehow less likely than either individual piece. — Mijin
Descartes: I think, therefore I am
Lichtenburg: Thinking is occurring.
George suggested that Rene went 'too far' with the Cogito and that he presupposed that the 'I' exists. Who is right? — Tom343
What wouldn't be on the checklist is the words "real" or "not real". — Mijin
The question for me is whether you're interested in understanding this, or if the whole thread is just for you to proselytize. Numerous examples have been given as to why the number of alternatives has nothing to do with their probability. Ergo there is no reason to assign a probability of 50%. — Mijin
It's not as simple as one operation; the actual calculation of a P value depends on the specifics of how much data is being collected, what the noise range is for that data and so on. But yes, as we gather more data our confidence in a proposition goes up.
Multiplying this number, as you've done, comes up with obviously absurd results. Imagine I am trying to figure out if you ate my cookie. If there are cookie crumbs on your shirt, I'm 80% confident you did it. If your fingerprints are on the cookie jar, 50%. But if I see both things, then by your logic, it's somehow less likely than either individual piece.
(and note, even if you quibble with the actual numbers, the point is, as long as they are less than 100% this will always be the case; multiplying them will decrease our confidence, by your logic. — Mijin
A devastating choice either way, but I would choose emotion. I'd rather be a rather poor primate than someone with no emotions. To no longer love my wife, nature, my kids. To no longer care about myself, kindness, connecting to others. To not have motivation for anything even to reason. To be a think, a calculator and one with no reason even to calculate since I have no motivations anymore. No goals that I care about. — Coben
Emotions and reasoning are not neatly separated in the brain. Further you need non-rational - as opposed to irrational - processes when reasoning. Intuition and feelings of correctness, completion, having checked carefully enough, feelings that something is missing
surround and support the process of reasoning. Reasoning in human brains is not like programming. Small bits of feelings are present throughout the process and necessary for that process.
A person without emotions is severely handicapped as a thinker. — Coben
God on the sixth day [the last day] of Creation created all the living creatures and, “in his own image,” man both “male and female.” — Britannica
I can't — Outlander
Basically, we've yet to hear your definition of strength and whether or not it is primarily physical or mental. — Outlander
1. Not everyone has picked up on it, but the "real" and "not real" thing is a bad framing right away. As Mww correctly pointed out, we know the observation is real, the question is just whether it points to some new phenomenon or just, say, noise in a cable or something. — Mijin
2. The idea that if we have two options then those two options must have 50% probability is a logical fallacy. I can't seem to find the name of the fallacy right now, but it is a known, named fallacy. Probability does not work like that.
3. Multiplying the "50% chance of being real" is also wrong. The whole point of repeating the experiment is to raise our confidence level that it wasn't just experimental error. To the extent these numbers make any sense at all, the 50% needs to be updated after each positive result.
Not by my definition of "real." If your meter read 17, for whatever reason, you really observed 17. — Dfpolis
Of course you do. Unless you have a sensory, neural or cognitive disorder, all the clues point to the fact that what you observed what was really there. As I said earlier, your use of "real" is non-standard. — Dfpolis
Your subjective certainty is more likely to reflect your childhood experience than your observation. If you are only 50% sure that what you saw is real, that says your self-confidence has been harmed -- not that there is any question involving reality. — Dfpolis
So the odds of a coin landing on edge is 50%. — Dfpolis
And its interpretation. Perhaps you observed x because your electronics failed, not because of what you believed was the experimental arrangement. Perhaps your sample was contaminated or unrepresentative. I can think of many possible scenarios, none of which call your experience or veracity into question, only the adequacy of its description — Dfpolis
Every observation of the same supposed type is a different token. None is exactly the same. You report, "I did x, and observed y." Someone else does x, but does not observe y. Does that mean that you lied? Or that y was a miracle? Or does it mean that factors not included in x lead to the observation of y? All are possible, but statistically, the last is most common. — Dfpolis
On what basis are you calculating the probabilities? — Dfpolis
Well if that's all that matters. More quickly yet more brutal eh? That's.. an interesting conclusion. Are we still defining strength as physical or mental or a toss up? Again, you'd be surprised what a few inventions can do.. — Outlander
You asked what common sense was. I explained it. That's the point. "Common sense" in the quote by Wittgenstein is nothing but a bad translation that alters the effective meaning of his point — god must be atheist
Obviously I can't speak for Wittgenstein, but substitute intuitive sense for common sense and the whole paragraph makes intuitive sense.
Common sense does not mean in German what it means in English. In English, it means the sense that is common to all. Which is in itself an impossible proposition in most cases. In German (and in Hungarian, coincidentally, as in most other European languages) common sense is expressed as "reine Vernunft", or tiszta esz, in Hungarian, or Nyezhdravanskoye Nyiho in Russian: pure reason, pure brain, pure thinking. A sober mind. That sorta thing, nothing to do with consensus. Thus, Wittgenstein's uncommon sense is dictated by his personal intuitive thought, which is different from mine or yours; but the slavish stupid fucking asshole translators are incapable of bridging some differences in lingual constructs. — god must be atheist
It is the absolute nothingness which results through death that makes it an equaliser and neither the manner of the death nor the circumstances have any bearing on this effect. — Judaka
Maybe in death we experience eternal calm without the annoyances of life. Would it matter a million years from now if ten years ago someone had more fun than you? Anyway, I think everyone's experience of life is very similar. Envy is not so much sinful as illogical — Gregory
You're not a very patient person. — Outlander
Oh you better not. Some of the weakest people you can imagine are some of the strongest physically or in terms of social power. They never had to do anything for themselves or go through what someone who has to struggle to do what others have the inate and unearned ability to do. True weakness seeks power, be it physically or by position of authority. Anything to be the bigger man and lord over others without ever actually having to sacrifice, risk, or otherwise "do" anything difficult.
While the scales were forever tipped in the battle of brain versus brawn in the favor of the former the first time a tree fell atop a boulder creating the first lever, with each subsequent innovation an obscenely overwhelming victory for the former, strength is only half physical. At most.
In regards to the previous sentence, you're not incorrect. If something ever happens to the favorable circumstance or physical endowments one decides to build not only their entire identity and sense of self on but meaning of life on as well, it'd be like watching the training wheels fall off of a bike ridden by a toddler. At best you'd be left with an angry, confused child- at worst something not even Jane Goodall would recognize as human. If they keep themselves alive that is. Which is a toss up.
Not everyones like this. Any sensible person would want to keep themselves healthy. Of course. One who chooses either brain or brawn over the other will never know either. — Outlander
They won't die? You can't have weakness without strength and vice versa. There's always going to be someone on top and another beneath. Someone has to pay the piper. The difference is one will never have to face their weaknesses while the other will never be able to hide behind circumstance or "an easy life" and call themselves strong — Outlander
Sometimes the word "valuable" seems synonymous with creating pleasure
For example I value music because it gives me pleasure and I value charity because it increases well being.
But does pleasure have a value in itself?
I am using this definition of value "the regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of something." A situation I am thinking of is enjoying food.
Is the mere fact that you are in a state of pleasure valuable outside of any other context. Or is pleasure only of value when it is attached to a meaningful or ethical outcome. Definitions are tricky here because valuable, meaningful, pleasurable and ethical may have multiple meaning but also may rely on each other for part of their meaning.
Is there a value higher than pleasure? Does pleasure equal hedonism and act more like an insatiable addiction? — Andrew4Handel
You have hit the nail in the head. This is a serious problem.
Have you read "The Black Swan"? It's a notorious no-BS book regarding this exact subject. — dussias
Ah! Well, if we're talking about control and consciousness then I'd agree that not all instances have had someone steering the wheel. Makes me think about Hitler and Gandhi, though. — dussias
(By no means I'm saying that only emotions have been in control of the wheel, I'm just commenting that they have had their chance)
However, a hypnotist is trained to perceive the world as 90% irrational and 10% rational. What do you think of this?
Agreed. We haven't even gotten to the point of taking about if the only personality playing is the part of me that knows how to play chess and that all the other composite parts of my psyche are just spectating one personality play chess, where the spectators have already voted on who will win while the chess player is confined to playing out the game in response to a vote to either win or lose, based on the colour he is moving, black or white. — MSC
Do I love some reasonable arguments! But it's funny, emotions many times provide so much more information about the world. Pride, jealousy, disgust; these have steered humanity since its beginning. The problem is that, to obtain information from emotions, we need to open different channels, those more fit to noise and sights rather than words and meanings. — dussias
First, if I observe x, that is presumptive evidence that x happened. There is no a priori reason to suppose that x did not happen. — Dfpolis
Second, the purpose of repeatability in science is not to confirm or dispute what you observed, but to see if you have correctly identified the factors causing x. Perhaps x was caused by some extraneous factor you have not identified. If I can set up my experiment using all the factors you identified, and observe x, that is good evidence that you have correctly identified the relevant factors. — Dfpolis
Third, there is no rational basis for assigning numbers to things we cannot count or measure. Among these innumerables is the "probability" subjectively assigned to beliefs, and the "utility" of acts and decisions. Bayesian probability is simply transvestite prejudice -- prejudice in mathematical garb. Putting lipstick on it does not make it rational. — Dfpolis