You are in fact subjective about this and want logic and probability to fit how you think should be.
You say that "Santa Claus could be time travelling or quantum jumping or whatever". It doesn't matter if he is, there is still basic claim that he is flying through air, entering one home after another and leaving presents. Those claims can be measured physically. There is no claim that Santa Clause is doing all these things in some parallel space and time, invisible to us, including leaving presents which cannot actually be seen but are there. If we are only to measure Santa Clause claim by scientifically confirming or denying testimonies about presents inexplicably being left in living rooms during Christmas for children throughout the world, that would be enough to conclude that Santa Clause doesn't exist.
You say that in your opinion "there is a law of nature that no conscious entity could have created the universe, because there is 0 observational evidence for anything like that."
You confirm that it's your opinion, making it subjective, but your core statement is flawed. Because, there is also 0 observational evidence for what you claim - that no conscious entity created the universe, while something unconscious did.
You don't have any means to make any observational evidence, positive or negative against a claim, about source of creation of the universe. It is one thing to measure if there is magnesium in water, for example, and conclude that there is none, and another to be able to measure source of creation of the universe. In first case you really end up with 0 observational evidence for claim that there was magnesium in water, but in second case you don't have means to make any observational evidence.
Because you can't make any observational evidence against a claim, neither positive nor negative, you can't make a deduction about it.
You also say "if you accept that there can be a conscious entity capable of creating the universe you also have to accept that this entity can be a rabbit."
Claim in OP is defining conscious entity that created the universe as one that includes consciousness at or above human level, so what you say is not related to OP claim which means that it doesn't follow that if OP claim is true then yours is true too.
But furthermore, if you want to make a claim about a rabbit, I have already explained it. We have rabbits at our disposal, other species too, and we can do many measurements and observations about them all. You cannot discard all those measurements and observations and continue to proclaim 50% chance.