Rutgers University’s Network Contagion Research Institute released a new report on so-called “assassination culture” online, with Anti-Trumpism figuring prominently.
I’ll posted a brief quote below to give a sense of the undercurrent of political violence we’re dealing with — NOS4A2
That’s not party loyalty. The Republican party which existed for decades was destroyed by the MAGA populist movement, and many of its brightest lights either fled to the Democratic party or became independents. It is precisely because loyalty to the old Rebublican party dissolved that a former Democrat like Trump could become the new embodiment of the party. To the extent that a percentage of his voters were not MAGA populists, this was because they thought that when it came to running the economy he would govern like a free market, small government pro-business Republican, which is precisely what he did in his first term.Beyond that, the problem is party loyalty. Only a handful of Republicans could bring themselves to vote against their party's candidate: a morally bankrupt criminal Republican is more acceptable than any Democrat — Relativist
Many wealthy people imagined that Trump II would be like Trump I, mostly a standard right-winger with a bit of a protectionist hobby. They thought he would cut their taxes, eliminate financial and environmental regulations and promote crypto, making them even wealthier. They expected him to back off his tariff obsession if the stock market started to fall. If he ripped up the social safety net, well, they don’t depend on food stamps or Medicaid.
And if Trump II really had been like Trump I, America’s oligarchs would be very happy right now.
They're not paying the tariffs, so is he just fucking stupid in all this believing the money will flow into the nation and not just out of the pockets of its businesses and citizens? — Christoffer
If so, then why don't people do anything about it?
— Christoffer
How, though? He’s been empowered by the popular vote to do what he’s doing. — Wayfarer
↪Punshhh ↪Joshs
The tariffs and the return of "industrial policy" that differed radically from the neo-liberal orthodoxy that had dominated the GOP for decades were discussed throughout the campaign. You can find all sorts of articles on this from before Trump was elected, and he had rhetoric focused on the trade deficit in his speeches on a regular basis.
It's certainly true that when voters pick a candidate they are rarely selecting on a single issue, but it's hardly a move that has come out of left field. Both polling and my person experience living in an area that went hard for Trump suggest that the most common attitude for supporters is that they are willing to "try it out" and suffer some "short term pain for long term gain." — Count Timothy von Icarus
Second, it's perhaps dysfunctional that major policy choices are made wholly by presidents in this way. That's an outgrowth of decades of dysfunction in Congress, which can no longer govern — Count Timothy von Icarus
Seems like you wouldn’t make these cuts if you were interested in revitalizing American industries. — praxis
"Hey tariffs will make things cost more but at least there's less government spending on social security" isn't the win you think it is — Mr Bee
Corporations will go wherever they can get short-term profits, which is why they will also flock back to Russia without state intervention to stop them. — Count Timothy von Icarus
Franklin D. Roosevelt, when he was president in the 1930s, said that you have to try things. And if they don’t work, then you admit it, you abandon that, you go on to something else and you try that until you come across something that does work.
That’s not a bad approach if you are operating within a known system of rules. But if you are the one who’s making the rules, then all the other people have no idea what you’re going to do next. And that is a formula for having people hang on to their money until they figure out what you’re going to do.
And when a lot of people hang on to their money, you can get results such as you got during the Great Depression of the 1930s. So if this is just a set of short-run ploys for various objectives limited in time, fine, maybe.
But if this is going to be the policy for four long years, that you’re going to try this, you’re going to try that, you’re going to try something else, a lot of people are going to wait.
I never claimed that he didn’t win fair and square. Hitler won in a fair and free election, too. That doesn’t mean he didn’t govern by edict rather than rule of law. As to people getting what they voted for, a sizable chunk of those who voted for Trump thought they were getting someone quite different than what he has turned out to be. The ones who put him over the top did not vote for 19th century mercantilist protectionism.Meanwhile, Trump won the most votes in a free and fair election, and his party won both chambers of Congress. People are getting what they voted for. It's not a failure of "too little democracy" (i.e. "too much authority") when a proven incompetent populist demagogue wins power, quite the opposite — Count Timothy von Icarus
There may be a temporary increase in demand, but in the longer term American companies will not be able to compete with foreign companies who re-assemble cheaper supply chains excluding the U.S.
It's probably more likely to be the opposite, provided the tarrifs remain in place. — Count Timothy von Icarus
I'm not predicting rosy days, I'm just saying an emotionally neutral viewpoint is not predicting disaster. Maybe a recession. — frank
Black swan events happen often enough that every company takes risks to expand. But if anything, a lot of American companies should look for an increase in demand resulting from the tariffs. — frank
That said, one expert opinion is that recession probably wouldn't be caused directly by the tariffs, but rather by the fear inspired by them — frank
Some believe the U.S. is strategically positioned to leverage tariff-induced chaos in order to push for a "Mar-a-Lago Accord" that could simultaneously weaken the dollar and preserve its status as the world's reserve currency, ultimately leading to re-industrialization — praxis
↪Joshs
Have you spoken with an expert in economics or geopolitics about these predictions? There are a number of educated opinions on Reddit, although the moderator on AskEconomics just locked the thread because it was getting too rambunctious. — frank
If so, then why don't people do anything about it? Why is everyone just accepting that all of this is going on — Christoffer
↪praxis
I thought you might want to show where no tax for anybody who makes less than $150,000 a year is proposed. I couldn’t find it.
I guess use your imagination then. How would that tax cut benefit the 1% in your view — NOS4A2
In a meeting with Republican congressional leaders in June 2024 Trump said he favored an “all tariff policy” that would allow the United States to abandon the income tax. He said it again in October 2024, first to a bunch of guys in a Bronx barbershop (“When we were a smart country, in the 1890s…. [we] had all tariffs. We didn’t have an income tax”), and then to Joe Rogan. (Rogan: “Were you serious about that?” Trump: “Yeah, sure, why not?”) Trump said it yet again in his inauguration speech (“Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens”). One month later, Trump’s tariff-crazed Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, discussed the idea in some detail:
“His goal is to have external revenue. You know, the way I think about it, we all are so used to paying taxes, we’re so used to it, we have like Stockholm syndrome. You know, “Don’t stop the Internal Revenue Service, God forbid!” … Let [other nations] pay a membership fee. We all understand that model. Let them pay…. I know his goal is: No tax for anybody who makes less than $150,000 a year. That’s his goal. That’s what I’m working for.”
This drew a little more attention than Trump’s remarks. Maybe that was because Lutnick’s scheme was one-quarter less insane. In Lutnick’s formulation, the IRS would still tax people whose income exceeded $150,000. Still, exempting everybody else would cut loose at least three-quarters of all current taxpayers, at a cost to the Treasury of about $1 trillion per year. (The under-$150,000 cohort would still have to pay payroll tax, which for most in this group exceeds what they pay in income tax. But I digress.)
A $1 trillion hole in tax receipts is smaller than the nearly $3 trillion hole left by eliminating the income tax entirely. But $1 trillion is still an insane amount to have to raise in tariffs on $3.3 trillion of imports. Lutnick said later that none of this would happen until the budget was balanced, at which time everybody heaved a sigh of relief, because there’s no chance in hell Trump will ever balance the budget. Trump’s immediate reason to hunt tariff revenue is to try to cover the cost of his tax proposals: extend the 2017 tax cut, restore the deduction for state and local taxes, eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, et cetera. The cost of these approaches a whole ‘nuther $1 trillion per year.
Have you noticed that Trump never gets a number right? He will never acknowledge arithmetic. I don’t feel certain Trump’s even signed on to Lutnick’s compromise idea of eliminating the income tax only on incomes below $150,000. But to pursue any version of this scheme, Trump needs to slap tariffs on everything that moves, while leaving his underlings to supply a rationale. Just about any justificaiton will do.
The left died. This is what's taking its place — frank
Public-opinion polling on Trump’s economic management, which has always been the floor that has held him up in the face of widespread public dislike for his character, has tumbled. This has happened without Americans feeling the full effects of his trade war. Once they start experiencing widespread higher prices and slower growth, the bottom could fall out.
A Fox News host recently lectured the audience that it should accept sacrifice for Trump’s tariffs just as the country would sacrifice to win a war. Hard-core Trump fanatics may subscribe to this reasoning, but the crucial bloc of persuadable voters who approved of Trump because they saw him as a business genius are unlikely to follow along. They don’t see a trade war as necessary. Two decades ago, public opinion was roughly balanced between seeing foreign trade as a threat and an opportunity. Today, more than four-fifths of Americans see foreign trade as an opportunity, against a mere 14 percent who see it, like Trump does, as a threat.
As the political scientists Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way point out, “Authoritarian leaders do the most damage when they enjoy broad public support.” Dictators such as Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chávez have shown that power grabs are easier to pull off when the public is behind your agenda. Trump’s support, however, is already teetering. The more unpopular he becomes, the less his allies and his targets believe he will keep his boot on the opposition’s neck forever, and the less likely they will be to comply with his demands.The Republican Party’s descent into an authoritarian personality cult poses a mortal threat to American democracy. But it is also the thing that might save it.
↪Joshs Americans are in for a real ride now. At least for others, it's just the exports to the US going down the drain... for the US consumers, a bit different. — ssu
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he spoke with Prime Minister Mark Carney about that prospect on Wednesday morning ahead of President Donald Trump’s ominous Liberation Day announcement on sweeping new tariffs.
Ford suggested that Carney told him a zero-tariff situation was possible if Trump agreed to drop all tariffs.
Some hinge propositions are of the form "...counts as...", and as such their role is in setting up the language game. "The piece that only moves diagonally counts as a bishop"; "This counts as a hand"; "'P' counts as true if and only if P". — Banno
, I often "take it as true" that my colour judgements are synonymous with the optical colours, due to learning the colors by ostensive definition; in spite of the fact that the definition of the optical colours makes no mention of my color judgements. — sime
What are the philosophical / epistemological / logical grounds for hinge propositions being exempt from doubt?
— Corvus
I guess you could doubt them, you just exit the language game when you do — frank
For example:
i) That Paris is in France cannot be doubted means that we started with a doubt and then concluded that our doubt was baseless.
ii) That Paris is in France is exempt from doubt means that we are not even allowed to doubt at — RussellA
In the second way of thinking, only the epistemological ‘I know’ represents my conviction (justifiable or not) that what I believe to be the case corresponds to what is actually the case. The hinge ‘ I know’ is not a conviction that what I believe corresponds with the way things actually are. It functions prior to correspondence, and the split between hypothesis and experience. Both what makes hypothesis and any possible experience that could validate or falsify it intelligible are already framed by the hinge conviction. — Joshs
The two language games I'm referring to are seen in one use of 'I know.." as an epistemological use, the other use as an expression of a conviction. Something I believe to be an indubitable truth, which doesn't have a justification like normal propositions. There is no justification; it's a lived conviction shown in our actions — Sam26
I don't understand what "the superordiante concept" might be. This in relation to the yin-yang. Here addressed as though it in fact occurs. — javra
A thing will have masculine and feminine aspects. Take one of the masculine aspects. Does that masculine aspect have feminine meta-aspects? This is a way of saying, that while an object level phenomenon has masculine and feminine aspects, the aspects themselves are dichotomously masculine or feminine. — fdrake
This is clearly part of Trump's Project 2025 program. Did Musk set you up to this? — T Clark
You are conflating two different types of propositions within the language game. There is the hinge proposition and there is the ordinary proposition.
You are right that the ordinary proposition is the product of practical discursive engagement with others, but the hinge proposition is a different thing altogether.
This is why Wittgenstein critiques Moore's "here is one hand". The whole point of Wittgenstein's hinge proposition is that is not the product of practical discursive engagement with others — RussellA
92. However, we can ask: May someone have telling grounds for believing that the earth has only existed for a short time, say since his own birth? - Suppose he had always been told that, - would he have any good reason to doubt it? Men have believed that they could make the rain; why should not a king be brought up in the belief that the world began with him? And if Moore and this king were to meet and discuss, could Moore really prove his belief to be the right one? I do not say that Moore could not convert the king to his view, but it would be a conversion of a special kind; the king would be brought to look at the world in a different way.
95. The propositions describing this world-picture might be part of a kind of mythology. And their role is like that of rules of a game; and the game can be learned purely practically, without learning any explicit rules.
96. It might be imagined that some propositions, of the form of empirical propositions, were hardened and functioned as channels for such empirical propositions as were not hardened but fluid; and that this relation altered with time, in that fluid propositions hardened, and hard ones became
fluid.
97. The mythology may change back into a state of flux, the river-bed of thoughts may shift. But I distinguish between the movement of the waters on the river-bed and the shift of the bed itself; though there is not a sharp division of the one from the other.
98. But if someone were to say "So logic too is an empirical science" he would be wrong. Yet this is right: the same proposition may get treated at one time as something to test by experience, at another as a rule of testing.
What do you see as the ‘rules’ of ‘I have hands’ such that they hold across language games? Would Wittgenstein accept that there is any sort of understanding that holds ACROSS language games?
— Joshs
The first rule might be assumed embodiment, i.e., I act as if I have hands by grabbing and pointing for e.g..
The second rule might be realizing there is a linguistic baseline. It’s a shared certainty that’s voiced. Pass the potatoes assumes hands, doubt this foundation and things stall.
The third rule is immunity to doubt. Doubting here would break the frame or foundation, not allowing further linguistic action. — Sam26
65. Here we come up against the great question that lies behind all these considerations.—For someone might object against me:
"You take the easy way out! You talk about all sorts of language games, but have nowhere said what the essence of a language-game, and hence of language, is: what is common to all these activities, and what makes them into language or parts of language. So you let yourself off the very part of the investigation that once gave you yourself most headache, the part about the general form of propositions and of language."
And this is true.—Instead of producing something common to all that we call language, I am saying that these phenomena have no one thing in common which makes us use the same word for all,— but that they are related to one another in many different ways. And it is because of this relationship, or these relationships, that we call them all "language". (P.I.)
For Wittgenstein, the hinge proposition "here is one hand" is independent of any world. As a hinge proposition, it is the foundation of the language within which it is a part, regardless of its truth, where truth is a correspondence between language and the world — RussellA
“[t]he world is inseparable from the subject, but from a subject who is nothing but a project of the world; and the subject is inseparable from the world, but from a world that it itself projects”
On the other side of the argument, “I have hands holds across contexts and language games. Atheists function without belief in God, but how would they function without the belief we have hands? Moreover, belief in God is doubted by many, and it’s debated in theology and philosophy. Wittgensteinian hinges resist doubt (OC 19 “incapable of doubting”). The belief that God exists invites doubt, even among those who believe. — Sam26
↪Joshs Moore's papers indicate the opposite. — Sam26
hinges are not true or false in the propositional sense but are accepted as true or false as a matter of conviction or for purposes of utility — Sam26
Another guy named G.E. Moore tried to say, “I know I have hands,” as if it was a matter to be justified or a matter of proof. Wittgenstein disagreed, saying that it wasn’t a matter of proof. He said that these beliefs were so basic that a proof wouldn’t make sense — Sam26
Logic itself is objective. Only one universal reasoning could inquire into whether ‘logic is objective or not’, and any conclusion from that inquiry would be built using only logic; basically, you can only use logic to prove whether logic is objective or not, and so you prove ‘you can only use logic to prove’ as an objective experience of things. Some things we experience are universal, and that is an objective truth. — Fire Ologist
“… only "composed" logical notions can be defined without referring to psychological genesis; these notions are mediate and hence insufficient. They are already constituted, and their originary sense escapes us. They suppose elementary concepts like "quality," "intensity," "place," “time," and so on, whose definition cannot, in Husserl's eyes, remain specifically logical. These concepts are correlative to the act of a subject. The concepts of equality, identity, of whole and of part, of plurality and of unity are not understood., in the last analysis, through terms of formal logic. If these concepts were a priori pure ideal forms, they would not lend themselves to any definition; every definition supposes in fact a concrete determination.
This determination cannot be provided except by the act of actual constitution of this formal logic. Thus, we must turn toward concrete psychological life, toward perception, starting from which, abstraction and formalization take place. An already constituted logical form cannot be rigorously defined without unveiling the whole intentional history of its constitution. If such a history is not implied by all the logical concepts, these become unintelligible in themselves and unusable in concrete operations. Thus, Husserl maintains against Frege that one has no right to reproach a mathematician with describing the historical and psychological journey that leads to the concept of number, One cannot “begin" with a logical definition of number. The very act of this definition and its possibility would be inexplicable. (The Problem of Genesis)
I am drawn to the critters of no try realism and anti-realism
— Joshs
I'm dying to know what your software misunderstood here — J
Arthur Fine has prominently advanced a first challenge to all sides of the realist debates in a series of papers advocating the “Natural Ontological Attitude”, by asking what these debates are about. For example, they might be understood as advocating alternative goals for scientific inquiry (truth, empirical adequacy, instrumental reliability, advancing social interests, and the like). Realists and anti-realists attribute such goals to the sciences as an interpretation that “makes better sense” of scientific practices and achievements. Fine offers a trenchant reply:
Science is not needy [for interpretation] in this way. Its history and current practice constitute a rich and meaningful setting. In that setting, questions of goals or aims or purposes occur spontaneously and locally.
Michael Williams makes a similar argument in epistemology more generally, challenging the belief that “there is a general way of bringing together the genuine cases [of knowledge] into a coherent theoretical kind”, such that one can make a general case for realist or anti-realist interpretations of knowledge claims.
Another way to dissolve the realism question highlights a problematic commitment to the independence of meaning and truth. Anti-realists are evidently committed to such independence, because they endorse the possibility of understanding what scientific claims purport to say about the world, while denying the kind of access to what the world is “really” like needed to determine whether those claims are “literally” true. We can supposedly only discern whether claims are empirically adequate, instrumentally reliable, paradigmatically fruitful, rationally warranted, theoretically coherent, or the like. Realists nevertheless agree that understanding theoretical claims and determining whether they are correct are distinct and independent achievements.
For realists, it is a significant achievement to determine, for some scientific theory or hypothesis, that this claim, with its semantic content independently fixed, is true. If the determination of the truth or falsity of a claim were entangled with the interpretation of its content, however, such that what the claim says was not determinable apart from those interactions with the world through which we assess its truth, then realists would be unable to specify the claims (i.e., the contents of those claims) about which they want to be realists. Anti-realists in turn could not pick out their preferred proximate intermediary (perceptual appearances, instrumental reliability, social practices or norms) without invoking the worldly access they deny.
Donald Davidson (1984) developed a classic criticism of this assumption and the realist and anti-realist positions that presuppose it. Davidson argued that the only way to justify an interpretation of what a claim says is to show that this interpretation maximizes the truthfulness and rationality of the entire set of beliefs and desires attributed to a speaker in conjunction with that interpretation. Otherwise, any attribution of false beliefs to the speaker would be justifiably open to a response that attributes the error to the interpretation rather than to the claims interpreted. Only against the background of extensive understanding of what is true can we also understand the objective purport and content of beliefs and utterances. Davidson rightly concluded that “Nothing, no thing, makes our sentences or theories true: not experience, not surface irritations, not the world...”
Nietzsche utilizes the awkwardness of the summation of these ideas in the saying "There are not facts." But fact is, Nietzsche details facts about many things, and utilizes the term fact to point out truths across different eras of time. Nietzsche was a philologists, first and foremost, who studied the evolution of ideas throughout time by examing our language. — DifferentiatingEgg
“…the Aristotelian model appeared to characterize classical philosophy. This model entails that the Will to know ( savoir ) is nothing other than curiosity, that knowledge (connaissance ) is always already marked in the form of sensation, and finally that there was an inherent relation between knowledge and life. The Nietzschean model, on the other hand, claims that the Will to know ( savoir ) refers not to knowledge ( connaissance ) but to something altogether different, that behind the Will to know there is not a sort of preexisting knowledge that is something like sensation, but instinct, struggle, the Will to power. The Nietzschean model, moreover, claims that the Will to know is not originally linked to the Truth: it claims that the Will to know composes illusions, fabricates lies, accumulates errors, and is deployed in a space of fiction where the truth itself is only an effect. It claims, furthermore, that the Will to know is not given in the form of subjectivity and that the subject is only a kind of product of the Will to know, in the double game of the Will to power and to truth. Finally, for Nietzsche, the Will to know does not assume the preexistence of a knowledge already there; truth is not given in advance; it is produced as an event.
This model of a fundamentally interested knowledge, produced as an event of the will and determining the effect of truth through falsification, is undoubtedly at the furthest remove from the postulates of classical metaphysics.
Goodness, as I understand it, certainly does not mean humankindness and responsible conduct! It is just fully allowing the uncontrived condition of the inborn nature and allotment of life to play itself out — Chuang Tzu