In my view, Europeans should not focus on which clown is driving the clown car, nor on anything the clowns are saying.
The only thing that matters is Washington's
actions, and what we can reasonably glean to be Washington's interests in order to predict their future actions.
These are some things that in my view should drive European foreign policy:
1. The US
must pivot to Asia sooner or later.
2. Due to waves of right-wing populism, the pivot to Asia will constitute a loss of control over Europe, at which point Europe becomes a potential rival to the US.
3. The reason the US hasn't pivoted yet, is because it is busy shaping the political landscape in Europe in a way that will benefit the US when it departs.
4. Both Europe and Russia will have a big role to play in keeping the Chinese economy going when conflict breaks out in the Pacific.
5. Additionally, both Europe and Russia stand to benefit as 'the laughing thirds' from large-scale conflict on the other side of the globe when the two superpowers beat each other to a bloody pulp.
6. Adding 2 + 2 together, the US will do everything it can to
A. prevent Europe from becoming a laughing third as the result of a US-China war, and
B. prevent Europe from keeping China's economy afloat during a US-China war.
In other words, the US is a major threat to Europe no matter which clown runs the White House, because US strategic interests no longer align with European strategic interests.
For Russia, virtually all the same things are true - it too stands to be the laughing third as the result of a US-China war and play an important role as a market for China.
So, what should Europe do?
First of all, it needs to understand that its strategic interests align more with Russia than they do with the US. Europe and Russia, if they act rationally, should both seek to avoid conflict between themselves and put themselves in position to benefit from a US-China war.
On the other hand, there is nothing that would suit the US agenda more than long-term conflict between Europe and Russia.
European leaders should:
1. Encourage the US (and Britain - but that's another topic) to leave NATO as soon as possible, preferably while keeping NATO itself intact as a European security structure.
2. Steer towards a return to the pre-2014 status quo between Europe and Russia. Open diplomatic talks vis-á-vis Ukraine, normalize relations, trade etc.
3. Dust off their militaries in a non-antagonistic way.
4. Completely reform the EU so that it's an actual functional basis for an independent European state instead of a dysfunctional, compliant US vassal.
In other words, should Trump become president and start threatening to leave NATO, don't stop them. At the same time realize that this is going to mark a fundamental and inevitable change in US-European relations that we are woefully underprepared for and ignorant of. In fact, we should really be acting as though this has already happened, because the US has been preparing for this since at least 2008.