This is another version of the "no reason" comment. The Russians clearly believed and told us otherwise, and the idea that a great power goes to war for "no reason" is just not a serious argument. — Tzeentch
It's quite easy to see from the Russian point of view what was changing in Ukraine: Ukraine was in the process of being trained and armed by NATO to a point where Russia's standing army would no longer be able to intervene. During the initial invasion Ukrainian forces outnumbered the Russians (est. 200,000+ vs. 100,000 - 190,000 respectively).
Coupled with NATO rhetoric of incorporating Ukraine, it was clear from their point of view they were expecting NATO to create a fait accompli. — Tzeentch
Insisting that there was "no reason" and that Putin is some mad man is not a serious argument. — Tzeentch
It doesn't. Ukraine and especially Crimea are of great geopolitical and historical importance to Russia and always has been. They've fought several wars over them. — Tzeentch
No realist should have been surprised that the Russians after over a decade of warnings chose to use force to secure what they believed to be their vital strategic interests. — Tzeentch
In fact, Mearsheimer predicted it almost ten years in advance — Tzeentch
Ukraine is more important to Russia than maintaining the status quo. That's exactly what they told us over the course of some fifteen years.
Striking such a sarcistic tone while losing sight of the most basic elements to this conflict is why I can't take you seriously. — Tzeentch
The solution is extremely simple: combine the creation of a deterrent with de-escalating rhetoric and with dialogue with Russia. — Tzeentch
Yet, we now know that the Europeans were acting in bad faith as far back as the Minsk Accords. — Tzeentch
These are geopolitical realities - forces of nature, almost - that they cannot ignore (though admittedly, Europe has been a king at ignoring geopolitical realities). — Tzeentch
It was anathema to neoliberalism, so anti-establishment. I think we're just quibbling over who the establishment actually is? — frank
Sure. Let me know when that happens. — Tzeentch
These people have been making accurate predictions about where this war would lead since Day 1. — Tzeentch
In other words, there is no reason Europe should treat Russia as the big threat. The only point Russia becomes a threat is if we A. constantly play our cards wrong, and B. let mercurial powers like the US whisper into our ears. — Tzeentch
Sure. But it needs to do so without pointlessly antagonizing Russia, otherwise rearmament is going to lead to mutual tensions and militarization (which we are already in the process of), which will not achieve security, but the exact opposite: war — Tzeentch
They rigged their primary to get him nominated. They've been running a scam for three years. It blew up. But he is the legitimately nominated candidate. The insiders threatened him with God knows what, and he gave in. That's a coup. — fishfry
So we don't actually have a president, just a figurehead run by an invisible cabal? We all knew that was true, but isn't it significant that this has now been demonstrated in public? — fishfry
And in a crisis, is there or isn't there an executive decision maker? And who, exactly, is that right now? — fishfry
It's half a coup. There's no president. This is very unseemly and there are great risks to this country right now. The Dems have arguably committed treason. They didn't lawfully 25A him. They did something unlawful. You want to defend that, knock yourself out. — fishfry
Supposedly we were going to feed Ukraine weapons to hurt the Russian military so they couldn't pull another stunt like Ukraine, yet it's the European militaries which are completely stripped and the Russians who now have an army several times the size of their peace-time standing army. — Tzeentch
One good thing if Trump wins: he’ll probably stop funding the war that the US provoked. That’ll save many Ukrainian lives. — Mikie
If you listened to his speeches in 2016, the message was: we're going back to the 1960s and 70s in terms of job security. That was the positive vision he outlined. Obama commented on how his vision was impossible because the industrial infrastructure of America is already gone. I take it you missed that aspect of his first campaign. — frank
Basically unthinkable. It would be political suicide if something like that became public. — Tzeentch
A lot more are calling it a coup than are claiming the earth is flat. What would you call it? — fishfry
The Dems lied for three years to hid Biden's infirmity, then stabbed him in the back. When Nancy Pelosi comes to you and says, "We can do this the easy way or the hard way," and a letter is put out that you clearly didn't write, that's a coup. — fishfry
Still no idea who is running the country. — fishfry
Germany was a diseased society during Weimar with prostitution of all ages and shemale bars. Hitler campaigned exactly against that. How can someone who campaigns against a disease embody the pathologies? It can't, even if Hitler later came to embody different diseases. — Lionino
Ironically, everything that the "grotesque, marginal" Göbbels said about Burgerland 100 years ago still applies today, and the entire planet would agree: — Lionino
i agree. I'm just more focused on what it means that there was so much popular support for him. He was telling people what they wanted to hear. Let's focus again on what that was: what did they want to hear? — frank
So if you think of Trump vs Harris in terms of the social forces involved, how do you read it? — frank
Obviously, presidents or politicians who have some rapport with the Russians are useful. But once the US starts backing coups in Ukraine, it's over. — Tzeentch
I guess you could call Trump elite, but I wouldn't say he's part of the establishment, which is those who set foreign and domestic policies. His power came from public support that was so strong that establishment Republicans dared not antagonize him. In that way he's anti-establishment. The only reason he's not a revolutionary is that he couldn't pull it off. No? — frank
Opening any kind of dialogue with the Russians would have been a sensible start. — Tzeentch
When the former hegemon gets involved, I see little point in ascribing much agency to Ukraine. The United States has a track record of leading countries down the path of their own destruction. Ukraine is no exception. — Tzeentch
The move to change Ukraine's neutral status predates Russian military actions by some 6 years at least. — Tzeentch
Was changing Ukraine's neutral status a part of that deterrence? — Tzeentch
Some are calling it a coup. — fishfry
Certainly if you saw this plot play out in some corrupt foreign country you'd call it what it is. — fishfry
The last thing he said was that he is in the race to win it. Then we saw him creaking slowly up a flight of airplane stairs, and then someone posts his resignation letter on his X account, which is known to be run by staffers and not personally used by Joe. An image is flying around social media of his signature on his four recent executive actions, which do not match the signature on his letter. The letter does not bear the presidential seal. No photograph or video exists of him signing it. Then he disappeared totally for five days, officially recovering from covid. — fishfry
If Biden is too impaired, even temporarily, to perform the duties of his office, the public has a right to know. And if he's not impaired, why haven't we even seen a still photograph of him in five days, let alone live video. — fishfry
But what did happen to Biden? — fishfry
This is the guy who got fourteen million votes in the Democratic primaries, and allegedly eighty one million in the 2020 general election. — fishfry
I don't want to hear anyone telling me that Donald Trump is a threat to Democracy again. — fishfry
The back-room party honchos decide what they want, and screw their own voters. — fishfry
I can see your point. But I still think that incumbency is very powerful. And if Joe is in as bad shape as he appears to be, it would be better for the country and certainly better for Kamala to just 25A the guy and be done with it. — fishfry
The political discourse "there" is right as usual. Hillary got millions of votes for being a woman, Obama for being black. Odds are that, if Hillary were Hilbert and Barack Obama were Barry O'Bryan, they wouldn't have won. — Lionino
Thoughts about Kamala Harris? — Shawn
I do not think she will be a strong candidate though. I think she would be a significantly stronger candidate if she hadn't been VP, because Biden's administration is not particularly popular. — Count Timothy von Icarus
I think the only way she isn't the nominee is if she pulls herself out. — Count Timothy von Icarus
They're actually making lists of loyalists to plop into critical spots. I think they're serious. This isn't the old Republican party. — frank
Exactly. The Democrats stand for the status quo. The parties switched roles (again). — frank
I don't think that's true. The political pendulum swings and the establishment is a dragging reflection of that. — frank
Which is weird considering the economy is booming. — frank
People are still using right/left terminology, though. It's just that they've redefined it. — frank
The new American right is skeptical of liberal democracy, which would have been a blasphemous position previously. They're populist and anti-establishment. They basically want to fire everyone in the US government who isn't loyal to their cause. They've already talked about how to defy the SCOTUS if they resist this transition. I don't know who the significant elites are in this situation, but it looks like the existing establishment has nothing to gain from this and quite a bit to lose. — frank
I think that's because the present establishment is very centrist, isn't it? The rising movement is rightist. That's a big switch from the old days. Everything used to be pretty moderate. — frank
For the American right, this is specifically about jobs. They want to stop immigration and force out all the illegal aliens presently here. That would up-end the economy, so it's bizarre that they're actually thinking about doing that. — frank
NATO used militarization and fanatical anti-Russian elements in Ukraine to create a fait accompli with regards to its NATO membership. The Russians are looking for guarantees that that won't happen again. — Tzeentch
The key to understanding how this is happening is to see the similarities between young Democrats and young Republicans. If you listen closely, you'll notice that they're saying the same thing: get out of Ukraine, get out of the Middle East, and focus on Main St. The people who are trying to say no to that are mainstream Democrats: Bill Clinton's people with their NAFTA and reduced support for the poor. — frank
It may be more of a matter of not having yet coordinated a effective response than of not being able to, but that is not a prediction. — Fooloso4
It's still uncertain since Biden could very well stay in or drop out at this point but what more do you think could be done here? — Mr Bee
Of course if you're talking about their inability to foresee Biden's age problems after RBG and even Feinstein months before he started running again, then yeah it is entirely a failure of leadership though that ship has already sailed. Complacency and arrogance from the ones at the top are what gave us Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2024. — Mr Bee
Then ask yourself: is now the Republican party really intent on wrecking democracy? All of them? — ssu
He already won the primary election, meaning he has already been chosen to be the candidate. That simply cannot be erased because he is not winning in the general. — NOS4A2
His party is telling him to step aside because he’s doing bad in the polls, and for no other reason. — NOS4A2
So in America, criminality is more acceptable than aging? — L'éléphant
I don't think he deserves to die. Like many, I just wish someone would assassinate him. I never claimed to be a saint. — frank