Thank you for the history lesson complete with pictures. It was really tragic what happened with Rabin.
For the sake of our discussion, I've mostly been referring to Iran. I think we both know that Iran is no push over militarily speaking. In regard to the nuclear threat, a good way to measure risk is to take into account both the odds of X happening as well as the amount of damage caused by X. In the case of nuclear war the odds of a nuclear strike by Iran are small (I think we both agree that it's small, but we probably disagree on how small. 1% and .00001% are both small but very, very different figures.) The amount of damage would of course be unfathomable. I'd be interested to see if you'd be willing to throw out a % here within the next 50-100 years that either Iran or a nuclear weapon from Iran is used against Israel.
There the truth is that for Iran opposing Israel is an ideological issue, not an existential issue,
I would question this; members of the Iranian government or groups close to and funded by Iran have repeatedly supported the destruction of Israel. The destruction of a Jewish state and its replacement by an Islamic one would be a HUGE win on a religious front for nearly the entire Islamic world including Iran. Here's a few examples:
Khamenei: “This barbaric, wolflike & infanticidal regime of Israel which spares no crime has no cure but to be annihilated.” (2014)
Hossein Salami, the deputy head of the Revolutionary Guard: "We will chase you [Israelis] house to house and will take revenge for every drop of blood of our martyrs in Palestine, and this is the beginning point of Islamic nations awakening for your defeat." (2014)
Salami: "Today we are aware of how the Zionist regime is slowly being erased from the world, and indeed, soon, there will be no such thing as the Zionist regime on Planet Earth." (2014)
Hossein Sheikholeslam, the secretary-general of the Committee for Support for the Palestinian Intifada: "The issue of Israel's destruction is important, no matter the method. We will obviously implement the strategy of the Imam Khomeini and the Leader [Khamenei] on the issue of destroying the Zionists. The region will not be quiet so long as Israel exists in it ..." (2014)
Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard: "The Revolutionary Guards will fight to the end of the Zionist regime ... We will not rest easy until this epitome of vice is totally deleted from the region's geopolitics." (2015)
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/03/Iranian-View-of-Israel/387085/
Make no mistake about it; Zionism is inseparable from the existence of Israel as a Jewish state. If Zionism falls Israel falls.
Iran doesn't recognize Israel and funds Hamas and Hezbollah. Both of these groups carry out intentional attacks on civilians and the Hamas isn't remotely shy about wanting Israel wiped from the map. How about the risk of Iran proliferating the nuclear weapons to one of these groups?
At the end of the day, I want to stay optimistic. I have no qualms towards the people of Iran, only the leadership. Neither of us have the inside scoop about their actual intentions, but based on rhetoric and ideology there is cause for concern. Do not underestimate the force of religious ideology. Mutually assured destruction might be insane by western standards, but radical Islam has a strong record of self-sacrifice for the greater cause.