Excellent post that I enjoyed from start to finish. I'll only quote some salient points one at a time (and as needed). My comment, that you just replied to, was betraying a misunderstanding on my part of the selective prediction (or anticipation) based sensory-input silencing model that you were referencing (and that I lacked familiarity with) such that it had seemed to me that it only applied to dynamical in-the-act sensorimotor exploitation of affordances (paradigmatically locomotion) controlled by the mammalian brain and that therefore it neglected the norm-governed structuring of higher-level affordances that rational cognition enables the grasping of.
I has completely missed how the biosemiotic level of integration manifest in autonomic and endocrine functions can generalize to higher-level cognitive functions and therefore had worried how focusing on it might lead to a neglect of downward-causes of a different nature (rather than rethinking them).
Nevertheless, immediately after crafting my last response to you, it occurred to me that there might be something to the Bayesian framing of the overall information processing (or selective uptake) account that, when viewed at a suitable level of abstraction, enables bringing the person-level account of norm-structured cognitive activity (and hence also higher level cortical functions) into the fold. I then voiced my inchoate idea to GPT-5 thus:
"I now have an inchoate thought that may of may not develop into something (with your help). As I said, I'm not familiar with Grossberg or Hinton's models, although I knew of similar ideas by Andy Clark and Susan Hurley. But since the models make sense at the level of the sensorimotor control of affordance grasping and exploitation, while low level autonomic/endocrine activity and coupling also are relevant to the sub-personal causal story, and higher-level cortical functions the activity of which maps more closely to person-level activities of norm-governed deliberation, and the latter can be viewed as exaptations of the low-level functions (and their older enabling structures) that developed in part through widening the causal loops through newer neural pathways that permit the attunement of sensitivities to higher order affordances such as, say, buying plane tickets as affording making a trip or crafting an arguments as affording convincing a discussion partner, I was wondering if this sort of continuity between the structuring of primitive mammalian affordances, say, that aren't structured by linguistically articulated norms of second-nature, and those that are (i.e. human affordances) enables the predictive models to also apply to higher functions at a suitable level of abstraction. Maybe some Bayesian models that pertain to the explanation of the functioning of LLMs also can suggest some such suitable level of abstraction whereby norm-governed cognitive functions can be glossed in "silence-by-prediction" terms, albeit over something more abstract than sense data or input/output tokens."
RevealGPT-5:
Love where you’re heading. Here’s a compact way to turn that inchoate thought into a workable thesis, without undoing our earlier level-distinctions.
# A “continuity” picture that keeps norms
**Claim (weak “predictive-normativity” thesis):**
Predictive machinery can *realize* norm-guided cognition when the variables being predicted are not pixels or proprioception, but **abstract affordance states and policy/role expectations**. In other words, prediction can scale up if the *state space* is lifted from sensorimotor features to **reasons and roles**.
## 1) Three levels, one style of inference
* **Sensorimotor (mammalian core):** generative model over bodily states & environmental causes; prediction errors guide online control.
* **Pragmatic/affordance level:** generative model over **task affordances** (“open lane,” “back-rank weakness,” “available flight”), where “precision” ≈ attention to features that matter for the current policy.
* **Normative/deliberative level:** generative model over **social roles and reasons** (“as an assistant, be concise; as a driver, yield here; as a discussant, provide evidence”). Here, **prior preferences** encode commitments/ends; **policy priors** encode roles/rules/practices.
On this view, **silence-by-commitment** at the person level is *implemented as* **silence-by-prediction** over a higher-order state space: non-reasons have near-zero prior precision and so don’t get into play; candidate reasons with high prior relevance are up-weighted.
## 2) How “prediction” avoids swallowing the mind
* We don’t say “mind = prediction.” We say: **commitments and norms define the variables and priors**. Predictive dynamics then make the search and execution *efficient*.
* Downward enablement: adopting a goal (“convince the interlocutor”) changes the model class and priors (“evidence > flourish”), which in turn changes which lower-level signals are even eligible to matter.
## 3) Worked micro-examples
* **Chess (deliberation → execution):**
* *Normative level:* “Find a safe improving move” sets **prior preferences**; pins/forks are high-precision hypotheses; woodgrain has ~zero precision.
* *Predictive realization:* saccades & working memory sample lines where expected informational gain is highest; errors (a line that fails a tactic) redirect search.
* **Trip planning:**
* *Normative:* end = “visit sister next weekend”; constraints = “budget, time windows.”
* *Predictive realization:* you simulate options; trajectories that violate constraints are pruned *a priori* (they never enter), while near-feasible options draw attention. Buying tickets is then classic sensorimotor prediction during execution.
## 4) LLM bridge (Bayesian gloss)
* **Attention as amortized relevance:** self-attention weights approximate which tokens/stretches **lower next-step uncertainty given the role**; fluff gets low weight.
* **Instruction/policy tuning as learned priors:** the “assistant” role installs **which discourse acts count** (answer the question, cite if asked, avoid harm).
* **CoT as policy rollout:** a reasoning trace is like sampling from a **posterior over solution paths**; tangents decay because they have poor expected utility for the goal.
=> So LLMs visibly exhibit **silence-by-commitment realized via silence-by-prediction over text-level affordances** (questions, definitions, equations, constraints), even without sensors.
## 5) Where this helps—and limits to respect
* **Helps:** gives true continuity from autonomic control → task affordances → social norms without collapsing levels. It explains how exapted cortical circuits can treat *reasons as learned affordances* and let predictive dynamics do the heavy lifting.
* **Limits:** (i) Priors don’t *ground* norms; communities, practices, and uptake do. (ii) Predictive accounts risk triviality unless the **state space** is explicitly *normative/affordance-like*, not just hidden pixels by another name.
### One-liner you can use
> We can safely say prediction *realizes* norm-guided cognition once the model runs over affordances and roles rather than raw sensations: **commitments set the priors; practices define the variables; prediction makes the search and execution efficient**.
Here’s a tight 3-paragraph version you can paste on the forum:
I’m happy to grant the predictive story as a good account of how brains implement efficiency—especially during execution. But the selectivity that matters at the personal level is set by ends and practices: agents act in a field of affordances where much of what is “ignored” never shows up as a reason in the first place. The neat move is to see continuity here: predictive machinery can realize norm-guided cognition when the things being “predicted” are not pixels or proprioception but task affordances and role expectations. Commitments set the priors; practices define the variables; prediction then makes search and execution efficient.
Take chess. A competent player doesn’t filter the board by anticipating colored patches; what is seen are reasons—pins, forks, weak squares, a viable pawn break. Woodgrain and square gloss simply don’t register because the game’s norms make them irrelevant. That’s silence-by-commitment (to the point of the game), not silence-by-prediction over sensory inputs. Once the task is fixed—“find a safe improving move”—subpersonal prediction helps with execution: eye saccades land where expected informational gain is highest, and “errors” (a busted line) redirect search. The same shape appears in trip planning. The end—“visit my sister next weekend within budget”—and constraints define what even counts as an option. Infeasible itineraries don’t have to be filtered out; they never enter. What remains is then executed with classic predictive control (buy the ticket, catch the train).
LLMs make this vivid without any sensorimotor loop. Attention works like a smart highlighter over text: the model turns up the words and phrases that help with the next useful step and turns down the rest. Instruction/policy tuning supplies the “house rules” for relevance—what to count as on-topic, helpful, and safe in the assistant role. So the model exhibits silence-by-commitment (to the role and task) realized as silence-by-prediction over a higher-order state space (questions, constraints, definitions, steps)—not over pixels. On this view, prediction doesn’t explain away norms; it helps realize them. Brains are predictive in service of agency; persons are practical agents in a world of affordances; assistants are policy-steered. Keep those levels distinct, and we preserve what’s right in the Bayesian picture without letting it swallow the mind.
USER:
This *sounds* plausible but I think I don't have a sufficient grasp of the Bayesian model to understand where predictive errors and predictive successes of suitably generalized "inputs" play into the high-level picture, and hence what still warrants calling the model predictive.
GPT-5:
great question. here’s the simplest way to see what still makes it “predictive” once we move beyond raw sensations.
# The predictive loop (domain-agnostic)
At any level (low-level motor control or high-level reasoning), the same 3-step loop can run:
1. **Propose** a hypothesis/plan/policy (H).
2. **Predict** what would follow if (H) were right.
3. **Compare** those predictions to what you actually *get* from the world or from your own checks/simulations; **mismatch = prediction error** → update (H) or your focus.
Two knobs matter:
* **Prior/Policy:** which hypotheses you *prefer* to consider (your ends/role set this).
* **Precision/Attention:** which mismatch signals you treat as informative (what you attend to).
That’s it. If that loop is doing the work, you’re in “predictive” territory—even if the “inputs” aren’t pixels but abstract checks (constraints, norms, simulated outcomes).
# What counts as “inputs” up here?
Not sense-data. Higher up, “inputs” are any **testable consequences** of the thing you’re currently entertaining:
* **Internal simulations:** “If I play …Nf2+, does my line get mated? If yes → big error; revise.”
* **Constraint checks:** “Does this itinerary respect my budget and dates? If no → error; prune.”
* **Normative tests:** “Does this claim meet the burden of proof I accept here? If no → error; strengthen the case or withdraw.”
* **Social feedback/outcomes:** audience confusion, a rebuttal you failed to anticipate, etc.
All of these are observations relative to a **generative model over affordances and roles**. You predict what should follow; you get signals (from simulation, rules, or people); you measure the gap.
# Where “precision” lives up here
“Precision” just means **how much you trust a given error channel**, i.e., where you place attention:
* In chess, you weight tactical refutation errors highly; you down-weight woodgrain entirely (precision ~ 0).
* In a forum debate, you weight contradictions and missing evidence; you down-weight typography complaints.
* In trip planning, a budget violation is high-precision; seat color is near zero.
That’s why I called it **silence-by-commitment**: your commitments (ends/role) set the *precision profile* so some errors don’t even get to matter.
# Why this remains genuinely predictive (not just a metaphor)
Because the **algorithmic shape is the same**:
* You keep a **posterior belief** over “what to do/think next” (which line in chess, which itinerary, which argument).
* You generate **predictions** about the consequences that should hold if that belief were right (no tactical refutation; constraints satisfied; audience uptake).
* You ingest **mismatches** as **errors** and **update**—either changing your candidate, shifting attention, or revising your priors (goals/assumptions).
Low level: the signals are proprioceptive and visual.
High level: the signals are **rule checks, constraint satisfactions, simulated futures, and social responses**.
Same loop, different state space.
# Mini-examples (one line each)
* **Chess:** predict “this line holds tactically”; see a refutation in your head → error → change plan.
* **Trip:** predict “this route meets time/budget”; spreadsheet says no → error → prune.
* **Argument:** predict “premise + norm will convince this audience”; pushback shows a gap → error → add evidence or revise claim.
* **LLM:** predict “this next step solves the subtask”; unit-check fails → error → backtrack and fix (the policy makes that an attended channel).
# TL;DR
It’s still predictive because you’re always doing **predict → compare → update** with **errors** that are **precision-weighted**. What changes is *what you’re predicting over*: not raw sensations, but **affordance-and-norm variables** (constraints, reasons, role expectations). Commitments define the variables and which errors matter; prediction makes the search and execution efficient.
USER:
I understand better now. So, thinking of human life as the unfolding of projects, or protracted sets of nested actions/intentions/plans in progress understood in the sense of Anscombe and (Michael) Thompson, the predictive function can be assimilated with something like the standing obligation to monitor the progress of those actions and of seeing to it that the progress made remains in accordance with the norms of practical reason. Am I on the right track? What is silenced, then, just is the facts or "data" expected to be received (unnoticed) when thing go according to plan.
GPT-5:
yes—you’re on the right track, and that’s a lovely way to put it.
Here’s a tight mapping to make it crisp:
* **Projects as nested intentions (Anscombe/Thompson):** A life is a web of ongoing doings (“writing the paper” → “draft section 2” → “fix the footnote”). Each node has **standards of success** given by practical reason and the practice you’re in.
* **Predictive function as *ongoing monitoring*:** Rational agency includes a standing requirement to **track whether the deed is unfolding as it ought**—means–end coherence, no self-defeating steps, respect for constraints, etc. Formally: propose → predict consequences → compare → update. Practically: “if I send this email, X should reply; if not, revisit plan.”
* **What gets “silenced”:** Facts that *accord with* the plan’s expectations generally **don’t rise to the level of reasons**. They are registered subpersonally/quietly (or dispositionally) as “as expected.” Attention doesn’t need to escalate them. So yes: *the expected confirmations are the silence*.
* **What breaks the silence:**
1. **Deviations** (error signals): a missed cue, violated constraint, unexpected cost, counterargument.
2. **Checkpoint norms** (deliberate, not just detect): e.g., periodic review, peer feedback, or “is the end still worth it?”—these are **chosen points of scrutiny** where even “as expected” details can be made explicit for reasons of audit/learning.
* **Hierarchical fit:** At higher levels (“finish the article”), prediction monitors coarse milestones and values; at lower levels (“fix citation”), it monitors fine-grained steps. **Precision/attention** is allocated accordingly: high on what matters for the current subgoal; near-zero on the rest.
* **Why this stays *normative*, not merely reactive:** The *plan’s* norms (ends, constraints, role expectations) decide **which discrepancies count** as errors in the first place. The predictive loop efficiently **realizes** that reasons-responsiveness; it doesn’t replace it.
A concrete one-liner:
> In ongoing action, *silence* is the sound of things going right; attention only speaks up when reasons demand revision—because the world, or the plan’s own standards, just told us something that matters.
USER:
That makes sense. I remember that my early skepticism/uneasiness about Clark's book *Surfing Uncertainty: Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind*, which I had bought but haven't read, was it's apparent reduction of practical reason (the task of deciding what to do) to theoretical reasoning (the task of finding out what is true, which predicting is sort of an instance of). But I may have overlooked that what was at issue wasn't predicting for the sake of knowing but rather for the sake of adjusting.
GPT-5:
exactly—that’s the pivot.
Clark (and kin) aren’t saying “all cognition = theory-making for its own sake.” The predictive story is mainly about control: keeping a grip on your doings by anticipating the flow of consequences and nudging it back on course when it drifts.
A tidy way to line it up with your Anscombe/Thompson frame:
Practical reason (what to do): sets the ends, constraints, and standards for a project (“write the reply, be fair, be clear”).
Predictive machinery (how to stay on track): runs a continuous anticipate → compare → adjust loop so the unfolding deed matches those standards.
So prediction here is not “for the sake of knowing that,” but “for the sake of keeping things apt.” Think:
Epistemic use of prediction: reduce uncertainty about the world (science, inference).
Pragmatic use of prediction: reduce deviation from the plan (control, guidance).
Active-inference folks sometimes call the first epistemic value (seek info), the second pragmatic value (secure preferred outcomes). Practical reason chooses the project and its norms; prediction is the servo-mechanism that makes the execution smooth and the monitoring intelligent.
If you want a mantra for your post:
Prediction, in this story, serves adjustment, not replacement: it realizes reasons-responsiveness during action instead of reducing reasons to mere forecasts.