A Probabilistic Answer To The Fundamental Question Of Metaphysics Lawrence Krauss wrote a book on this idea, Universe from Nothing. It was discussed up-thread — TheMadFool
I read the review on the book.
Seems like quantum fluctuation is one of the key idea of how universe come into existence from nothing.
Though in my understanding quantum fluctuation is just something 'semi-real' in which particle and antiparticle come in and out of existence and only the effects can be observed. Still, this theory in a way support my argument because that means nothing have a tendency to keep being nothing. No something has really come out from that quantum fluctuation as the particle-antiparticle keep collapsing back to nothingness. If scientist found evidence of 'real' particle created (or observed) out of that nothing without immediately collapsing again, then my argument really fall apart. Something really can come out of nothing.
Anyway after thinking some more on your original thesis, I think there's some hidden assumption there. Your conclusion of P(S) > P(N) assume that the probability of each S is the same as the probability of N.
But, what if the probability of N is 0.99 and the probability of each S is just 0.00001? Maybe the universe is more like a weighted dice, in which the probability of one side of the dice 'face' (for example 3) is a lot higher because there's a weight put inside on the opposite side. For example 3 has 0.8 chance of being on top, and the other number only has 0.04 chance of being on top because of the weight.
Maybe the probability of nothing is a lot higher than the probability of something, even though that something numbered more than one. Or maybe the probability of 'nothing keep being nothing' is enormously high, likewise the probability of 'something keep being something' is also enormously high. Anyway that's quite a huge assumption to make about the nature of matter and until it's cleared I don't think the conclusion holds.