It's pretty normal to use behaviour and words as evidence of intention, as we don't have mind-reading machines. — bert1

Yes also breathing air as we are not breathless machines, I guess.

The facts of what has happened is evidence of intention. Words are evidence of intention. — bert1

Right, why do we even have an ICC if we have bert1 to teach us what counts as evidence in the violation of the Geneva convention?

Let's go back to: I'm sorry for you if you think this needs quantifying.

The Martens clause leads interpretation.

Until a more complete code of the laws of war is issued, the High Contracting Parties think it right to declare that in cases not included in the Regulations adopted by them, populations and belligerents remain under the protection and empire of the principles of international law, as they result from the usages established between civilized nations, from the laws of humanity and the requirements of the public conscience.


The Geneva Conventions exclude breaking its rules even if the other party does (unless specifically stated otherwise) right there in article 1 and 3 of the convention. So Israel has a right to (counter)attack but not a right to breach the conventions. The disproportionality is apparent in the means chosen, collective punishment and deliberate targetting of civilians, which are all prohibited under the various conventions. Put in other words, excessive violence when acting in alleged self-defence, even if we accept a case of self-defence, is still illegal under international law and therefore disproportional.

More on reciprocity in humanitarian law: https://international-review.icrc.org/sites/default/files/S0020860400022178a.pdf — Benkei

Thanks for the quote and the link, Holy Benkei. I can understand that proportionality is matter of interpretation.
The problem is still who is interpreting the application of the convention, though. Because, as long as you want to talk laws, it’s not just a self-entitled anonymous nobody over the internet that must interpret violations of the Geneva Convention, but rather an authoritative (to the extant the balance of power allows it) if not recognised tribunal, yes?
Besides it isn’t that easy to prove the intentionality of such violations like “collective punishment and deliberate targetting of civilians” and pin it down on specific political leaders, or is it? Maybe that’s because the problem of implementing justice in the international arena can not be disentangled that easily from power balance and conflict of interests?

However, the real problem here is that you need laws to tell you what is ethically abundantly clear to anyone with a conscience (that's how it ended up as law, because people with a conscience realised it had to be written down). — Benkei

Yes it’s a problem indeed, Holy Benkei. But still the same problem, if I do not have a conscience how can I grow one as you preach? You must certainly have the answer, yes? That’s why your immense wisdom is so precious to me. Teach me the holy way to fix the world horrors from your armchair. While you are at it, why do you think Geneva Conventions are too often violated as some say (https://onu.delegfrance.org/The-Geneva-Conventions-are-too-often-violated) and so hard to prosecute as others say (https://www.axios.com/2022/03/22/russia-putin-war-crimes-icc-ukraine)? Is it possible that there are enough people and, especially powerful people, which do not seem to comply to what is “ethically abundantly clear to anyone with a conscience” EVEN IF international laws is telling them to do so? And if they do not comply and yet their action is so terrifyingly impactful, how else can they grow a conscience? Do you think if all anonymous nobodies in this forum will keep calling them “morderous iditios” long enough, would this grow conscience in them and everywhere in the universe and this will finally help fix the world horrors, Holy Benkei? Is that your gospel which will free us from the Evil?

So this is my last reply to you as I don't want to engage with murderous idiots here or in real life. — Benkei

But then how can murderous idiots grow a conscience if you refuse to share your immense wisdom with them, Holy Benkei?

neomac
No. And you haven't read those conventions or you would already have the answer. But nice try hiding your ignorance behind sarcasm. — Benkei

Yep you really gave me a lesson, Holy Benkei. I tried so hard to hide my immense ignorance. But you, in your immense wisdom, showed to the world how immense your wisdom is, didn't you? But what if I claimed I read them and the answer is NO, THERE IS NO EQUATION NOR FORMULA TO ASSESS REASONABLE PROPORTIONALITY OR PUBLIC CONSCIENCE IN THOSE CONVENTIONS! Prove to the world that I'm a liar, Holy Benkei.

Read the Geneva and the Hague conventions if you have problems wrapping your head around which principles are involved. Or alternatively grow a conscience. — Benkei

Even if I read those conventions, you may question my understanding of them. So, in your immense wisdom, point me where exactly the Geneva and the Hague conventions specify the reasonable proportionality formula or equation. Or where "public conscience" to establish "reasonable proportionality" is specified for proper assessment.

Or alternatively grow a conscience. — Benkei

Help me grow it with your immense wisdom, Holy Benkei. If it was enough your injunction "grow a conscience" to make grow one in somebody, we would be living in a moral paradise already, wouldn't we?

public conscience — Benkei

"Public conscience" of which country? Should there be a referendum to establish it? Or a phone survey is enough? How large is the sample?

Maybe find a moral compass before asking moral questions. — Benkei

Maybe in your immense wisdom you can try to explain to me what that even means. What is the moral compass one needs BEFORE asking moral questions. Show me yours.

they have no basis to condemn Hamas' actions because it is simply fighting according to the rules by which such a war is fought. — Tzeentch

And the rules are? Give me two of them as precisely as you can.

But Israel clearly escalated beyond any reasonable proportionality. — Benkei

And the reasonable proportionality formula is? In your immense wisdom, do you have an equation to show us?

MR. KIRBY: Yes, we — we have issued the last drawdown package that — that we had funding to support. And that’s why it’s — it’s critical that — that Congress move on that national security supplemental request and we get more funding.

The — the assistance that we provided has now ground to a halt. The attacks that the Russians are conducting are only increasing. And now, as I talked about earlier this week, they’re using North Korean ballistic missiles to do their dirty work.

So, the — the need is acute right now, particularly in these winter months.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/01/11/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-nsc-coordinator-for-strategic-communications-john-kirby-and-national-economic-council-director-lael-brainard/

If the US leaves NATO, NATO might turn into a European military alliance or just end (if there is no shared understanding and willingness of what is the common enemy/enemies).
The problem is that we would still have a war in Ukraine and the risk that Russia will see the American retreat from Europe as an opportunity to become more aggressive, starting with the Baltic States. Also the Balcan area, plenty of territorial disputes, may become hotter. Go figure what will happen if Trump will try to RECONCILE with Russia over Ukraine in order to weaken the Russian pact with China.
Besides the cost of boosting the defence industry (BTW what will happen about the European nuclear deterrence which only few European states possess? Should the other start a nuclear program? What will happen to the defence of the commercial routs around the world? Should all Europeans boost investment into the Navy too?) or maybe reintroducing the military service, the economic crisis due to the economic competition of the Americans (which may even become more hawkish after the end of their NATO partnership e.g. consider the market of microchips and technologies) and the problem of commodity supply under the control of more assertive and competitive geopolitical agents (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, China and the US), the difficulty of coordinating this effort among Europeans may have repercussions on the stability of the EU and resurgence of populist movements (with its unresolved anti-elitism and unresolved identitarian issues with immigration and Muslim community). European tensions inside European countries and between European countries will still be fueled by hostile or competing powers (including the US), which in turn may even more polarize and paralyze European democracies in their capacity to pursue their strategic interests unless they turn into authoritarian regimes and/or search protection from foreign powers (if not the US, which one?). Also the EU is in danger. And the demographic decline won't help either for the next decades.

Glory to the age of the multipolar world:
https://nltimes.nl/2023/04/08/dutch-journalist-writes-critically-china-targeted-bizarre-intimidation-scheme
https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/incident/chinese-embassy-in-stockholm-threatens-swedish-journalist/
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/journalist-03252019114547.html
https://www.asiapacific.ca/fr/asia-watch/czech-prime-minister-wants-chinese-ambassador-out

You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you," Breton quoted Trump as saying during the Davos meeting.
https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/

BTW here some quotes from a year ago about security guarantees:

But the idea that guarantees are needed to enter into an international agreement is just a high school level and completely ignorant understanding of international relations. There is never any guarantees. — boethius


My impression is that you have no clue what you are talking about:

- International relations include a legal framework based on voluntary acceptance by acknowledged independent nations. Within this legal framework one can implement “security guarantees” (https://www.academia.edu/16541504/Legal_Notion_of_the_Terms_Security_Assurances_Security_Guarantees_and_Reassurances_in_International_Security_Law).
- The primary involved parties in the Ukrainian war are clearly interested in such “security guarantees”: Putin urges West to act quickly to offer security guarantees. (https://www.npr.org/2021/12/23/1067188698/putin-urges-west-to-act-quickly-to-offer-security-guarantees). And Ukraine showed interest in having one, given the consequences of the Budapest Memorandum about “security assurances” (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/stvorennya-mehanizmu-bezpekovih-garantij-dlya-ukrayini-stane-76129).
- To the extent there is an international law and rational agents engage in it, there must be some reasonable application for it, independently from any arbitrarily high standard of reliability and compatibly with power balance/struggle concerns. The reason to me is obvious: the international legal framework increases transparency and trust, given the coordinated and codified procedures/roadmap to monitor and measure commitment and implied costs. — neomac

Dude, what you actually claimed is the following:

The peace deal was all but finished when Boris Johnson flew in to announce Ukraine would not be signing any deals with the Russians. — Tzeentch

"

To such rhetoric manipulation of yours and your sidekicks I commented:

Russia and Ukraine can agree on whatever ceasefire proposal, but if this proposal requires security guarantees from foreign guarantors, and foreign guarantors are not willing to provide them, then there won’t be a deal. — neomac

Concerning the Istanbul Communiqué, two points remain predictably uneasy to settle: the territorial claims over Donbas and Crimea, the security guarantees. Concerning the security guarantees, either they exclude Russia so they become a version of NATO which Russia couldn’t possibly like if that’s Putin’s issue, or they include Russia (the aggressor) which can at the very least sabotage any effort of Ukrainian Westernisation (as much as it happens with resolutions that go against Russian interest in the UN) while being spared economic and diplomatic sanctions. — neomac

So Chalyi's article confirms more what I argued than what you argued. You are dishonestly framing everything as to stress the MORAL responsibility of the West without even considering the reasons of the West. Even though you believe that states have no moral responsibility (since they are not moral agents) only legal and yet:

I think every insurgency fought against a foreign occupation can be justified. That doesn't mean the insurgents are the 'good guys', but a foreign occupier has no right to be there in the first place and are by definition in the wrong. — Tzeentch

The US sought an excuse to invade Libya for reasons that had nothing to do with the humanitarian situation. Shame on the international community for going along with it, and in essence proving my point. — Tzeentch

Does "shame" express a moral, colloquial, legal, or strategic claim?

The sheer disgust you feel towards some of the clowns that inhabit the spheres of international politics is not enlightening but clouding your mind. Taking denouncing self-interest of a hegemonic country, like the US, and deconstructing propaganda hiding it as the best expression of a rational and intellectually honest task, EVEN WHEN ACCURATE, is still a myopic and populist prejudice. That is what is wasting your time on this thread in this philosophy forum.

Yes, because America is a pig, more powerful than the Third Reich ever dreamt of being, and the world is tired of America's abuse. America and Europe still have a colonial mentality, and America is rat shit crazy to dominate. Today is wakeup time, the world is changing. — boagie

Dude, you ain't gonna impress nobody with your foul mouth.

Why are not these nations of the East ever so grateful? — boagie

Because BRICS countries may have their own hegemonic ambitions, particularly China and Russia.

America is so caring, they just want everyone to be free, don't they? — boagie

America is caring for its own national interest, of course, and I find it rather naive and myopic to blame the US for it. Other countries' concern for freedom, civil rights, economic wealth, and democracy is instrumental to preserve the US hegemony, of course. If China and Russia invested the wealth accumulated with the globalization to support health, education, economic well being and civil rights for their own people, instead of investing in their coercive system to oppress their own people and support military projection overseas, they would have less military means and will to violently pursue hegemonic ambitions abroad. Germany and Japan after WW2 are successful examples of this strategy.

So the best sources are an eMail allegedly by Clinton and a supposed russian article reported by hearsay twice removed. — Echarmion

Clinton's email wasn't about Gaddafi's "ambitions to create a gold-backed alternative to the dollar"
This gold was accumulated prior to the current rebellion and was intended to be used to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar. This plan was designed to provide, the Francophone African Countries with an alternative to the French franc (CFA).
https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/12659

The world is moving to a multipolar world, removing the America boot from their necks, soon it well become obvious to you as well. — boagie

I have no idea why you are so excited about it. "Multipolar world" means that the world is gonna be more peaceful, more equitable, more democratic?

Think about it, all the while the States has been subjugating if not destroying other countries' economies with their economic and military might, — boagie

Exactly the opposite is true. China and Russia economies could grow the way they did after the cold war thanks to the American-led globalization. This wealth boosted their military expenditures as much as their economic-military projection abroad.

Let's assume you are right whatever point you are trying to make, still “it would be more interesting if you told us where the Russian propaganda about the genesis and the purpose of this war may be wrong”. Do you have anything to say about this? It's the third time I'm asking.

My prediction is that if Trump wins the elections, for sure Ukraine will have outlived its usefulness. — boethius

Meaning? What will happen then?

Really, typical? It seems to me boagie is literally the first participant in this discussion to present things as BRICS are good and America is bad. — boethius

The problem is that he didn’t make any arguments that you/Tzeench/Isaac wouldn’t make yourselves. So one may wonder why the different conclusion? BTW your/Tzeench/Isaac’s conclusion doesn't seem that different either. [1]


[1]

That’s what I asked you because that is what Tzeench claimed “the western world under US leadership has been the most destructive force on Earth since WWII” and that is how you interpreted it: “The one that causes most death and misery”. — neomac


@Tzeentch's claim here is pretty easy to support.

We are literally in a 6th mass extinction event heading towards civilisational collapse that is entirely due to US policy and acquiescence of their fellow Western acolytes, not to mention pollution of various other forms as well as neo-colonialism and US imperialism (however "soft" you want to call it -- being smothered by a pillow can have the exact same end result as being stabbed in the chest). — boethius

Again, you didn’t say anything that I didn’t already hear a thousand times in this thread and outside of it. That’s why I indirectly asked you: “it would be more interesting if you told us where the Russian propaganda about the genesis and the purpose of this war may be wrong”. Still waiting for an answer.

Well, do you know what lead up to the invasion of the Ukraine. If not don't waste my time. — boagie

It's been a long thread. You didn't say anything we didn't hear already a thousand times.
Being you pro-Russian, it would be more interesting if you told us where the Russian propaganda about the genesis and the purpose of this war may be wrong.

The goal is to drip feed arms to Ukraine enough to prop it up in order to damage Russia (which may not even be happening), super charge arms profiteering both directly to Ukraine as well as indirectly by creating a new Cold War, protect the USD from the Euro by having the Europeans destroy their competitiveness and fully prostrate themselves as meaningless vassals on the world stage. — boethius

What will be the goal (in Ukraine) if Trump wins the elections? Can you predict that too?

I don’t want to share that yet because it is too premature. — Bob Ross

Unfair enough.

It could be the case that no one is morally justified in sacrificing that child and that the child would have, if they were the sole survivor, no feasible living arrangement afterwards.

Perhaps this factors into your moral reasoning though: to you, does that reason count in favor of potentially sacrificing the child? I don’t believe so. — Bob Ross

It would factor in my moral reasoning. Not sure that would be enough to reach my conclusion though, I’ll come back to this later.

That child nor I can use other people as a means to and end, even if that end is saving other people. I cannot throw you into a moving car to stop it from running over my child. — Bob Ross

People as a means to an end? We find it permissible to hire people as a means to an end which is making our own living as much as they make their own living by doing business with us, and some may find morally permissible even to do business over currently illegal jobs like prostitution, selling organs, dealing drugs.
How about living creatures, animals? Can you torture and kill animals as a means to people’s end? One might obviously argue that we already do this, we eat animals after all, and the food industry from start to end is a torturing experience for animals. So what makes human beings so special?

if we must choose, would it be permissible to have child X to be safe at the expense of the rest of the human species to be immediately annihilated?

My answer would also be no. — Bob Ross

You have the choice to refrain from actively violating someone’s rights in both scenarios: what you don’t have control over is the predestined stipulations of the thought-experiment. You can say no and simply not be morally blameworthy for the annihilation of the human species (by my lights). — Bob Ross

But if the premises of your thought experiment are:
- your choice determines the fate of humanity
- the moral rule is something like “do not sacrifice any life to save another for whatever reason in all possible scenarios” (so it is neither permissible to sacrifice the remaining human species to save a child, nor to sacrifice a child to save the remaining human species)
Why am I not blameworthy for the annihilation of the remaining human species, exactly? My choice to sacrifice the remaining human species as a means to save a child would still break the rule “do not sacrifice any life to save another for whatever reason in all possible scenarios”.
There is no room for distinguishing choice abstention from choosing to sacrifice (not to mention that even abstentions are often perceived as morally blameworthy).

what lesson do you wish to draw from this hypothetical predicament?


Is consequentialist normative ethical theories valid in any scenario? That’s the question. — Bob Ross

I’m reluctant to accept the distinction between consequentialism and deontology because I’m not sure to find it intelligible. Sometimes we reason in terms of rules as it happens with non-moral rules, like when playing games according to conventional rules. Sometimes we reason in terms of consequences or instrumentally given certain goals. Other times we reason in terms of basic social norms: e.g. those related to human rights. But even basic social norms don’t need to be intrinsically and unconditionally compelling. How would I identify such “basic” norms? In hierarchical terms, if I see other social norms based on them. And/or in temporary terms, if I see social norms that vary, while these are preserved. And/or in psychological terms, how they have been internalised: as default behaviour/habit or degree of readiness to willingly sacrifice at least one’s or beloved ones’ comfort and life for the sake of it. Your deontological position seems to me focusing on cases testing such internalisation/commitment in some form toward other people as people. What I would find more interesting is to explicit the reasons for such internalisation/commitment and to what extent they are taken/expected to be universal.

you cannot violate that child’s rights, period. Doesn’t make baby hitler right in doing atrocities later in life, but we cannot violate peoples rights period; especially over ‘forseeable’ consequences of their existence (which I find really unreliable, but that’s irrelevant to my main point). — Bob Ross

OK, take a more real life case: abortion.
- Scenario 1: We may save either mother or baby during a difficult delivery, but not both. Yet we know the kid has developed a torturing and deadly disease which will make it die any time soon after birth, should we let the mother die so we are not blameworthy to kill the baby?
- Scenario 2: We may save either mother or kid, but not both, and if we do not intervene they both will die. Killing a mother/baby even to save the other is immoral, so we let both die but we wouldn’t be blameworthy for it?

Metaethically, I would say there aren’t any moral facts. With respect to normative ethics, I would say we must treat persons with respect as objects of intrinsic respect. Admittedly, I am still working out the details. — Bob Ross

You can at least draft arguments for why people must follow what you claim to be “moral rules”, can’t you?

I merely created a thought experiment taking this to its extreme: what if, right now, we had to perpetually torture a child (and I will let you use your imagination on what exactly is done to them) to prevent the immediate annihilation of the entire human species — Bob Ross

I am puzzled by your thought experiment. As it is formulated, it seems that the two scenarios are, respectively, one in which a single child X is annihilated and/or tortured while the rest of the human species is not immediately annihilated. The other scenario is one in which the entire human species (including millions of other children), including child X, is immediately annihilated. In other words, in both scenarios that child won’t be safe anyways. Even if you meant that in at least one scenario the child would be safe, one may wonder: how would a child even live and evolve as a psychologically and biologically sound human being if the rest of humanity would be immediately annihilated?

Even if we want to put aside our suspension of disbelief (but why exactly?), I would also wonder: if we must choose, would it be permissible to have child X to be safe at the expense of the rest of the human species to be immediately annihilated? Because if neither killing/torturing a child is permissible even when the rest of humanity would be safe, nor having the rest of humanity safe at the expense of killing/torturing a child, and we must choose anyways (why exactly?), what lesson do you wish to draw from this hypothetical predicament? If your thought experiment was designed to lead to a moral choice paralysis, I do wonder: what’s even the point of moral reasoning over thought experiments designed to fail in guiding choice and action exactly?

BTW, since we put aside our suspension of disbelief, we can be more fancy in elaborating the original thought experiment: let’s imagine that that child X whom nobody is permitted to sacrifice, is somebody who will soon develop a torturing mortal disease for natural causes and die atrociously even if the rest of the human species was immediately annihilated to save the child, or that the child is a psychopath who enjoys torturing living creatures before killing them for the rest of his life or a Hitler on steroids which will torture and exterminate the entire human species anyways and repeatedly if he only had the chance. What would be morally legitimate to do? What if the lesson we draw from the thought experiment varies remarkably depending on how the thought experiment is construed?

The problem is not much that there is a moral rule (where?!) that says “do not torture or kill any child ever for whatever reason” but more why would we be committed to such rule exactly? Saying because it is moral, it would shift the problem: how did this rule get the label “moral” in the first place? What is there in claiming “morality” that would me make me feel (?!) or taken (?!) to be committed to it or compelled BY DEFAULT and without consulting me first? And if it is not that what is implied, what else is exactly?

At this point the West has its own persisting issues with NATO which the enlargement didn't fix:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/12/15/i-haven-t-changed-my-number-macron-still-open-to-peace-dialogue-with-putin_6347805_4.html

Putin insists that his objectives are/were denazification, demilitarization, and neutral status of Ukraine.

So no Putin's intentions weren't just annexing Donbas, Crimea and a land bridge.

↪neomac
This isn't primarily a philosophical discussion.

If you want to have a philosophical discussion, at least be so forthright as to clearly indicate what question or topic you want to discuss, rather than throwing up semantic smokescreens. What you're doing now smells of deflection and sophistry. — Tzeentch

What I take to be a philosophical exercise is “to investigate very basic (mostly implicit) assumptions of somebody’s beliefs. ” Among such assumptions there is our basic (mostly implicit) conceptual framework. So addressing such conceptual framework and how it applies to concrete situations (like the war in Ukraine) is part of the philosophical investigation I’m engaging in. The fact that you take as “semantic smokescreens”, “deflection”, “sophistry” what I find legitimate to philosophically question in this forum proves at best how self-evident you take your conceptual framework to be. So much so that you don’t feel the need to clarify better any of your claims even when expressly and repeatedly solicited. As far as I’m concerned, you expressed beliefs about:
- When this conflict “started”
- What “primarily caused” this war
- What Europe or Ukraine “should do”
- The distinction between “colloquial” evil and “moral” evil
- The distinction between “moral” claims and “strategic” claims
- The nature of States as “abstractions and not moral actors”
- The “right to self-defence” as grounded on “international law and not morality”
- Who is to blame
Your clarifications about such claims in our recent exchange were rather poor to me: labeling your normative claims as non-moral without clarifying on what grounds you discriminate between moral and non-moral is not that helpful. Nor is it helpful to clarify it by means of other ideas that I expressly find questionable (like “primary cause”, “strategy”). Besides you continue applying them in a way that I find rather confusing if not confused, like “Europe should not make itself complicit in such a senseless waste of life”, as I argued. And I wasn’t even trying to put all the burden of the clarification on your shoulder, see my comments on your idea of the “primary cause” of this war , or your idea of when the conflict started, or your idea about normative claims about strategy, or your idea about what is “senseless waste of life”, etc.
Notice also that I don’t find your accusation of “semantic smokescreens”, “deflection”, “sophistry” self-evident either, so I can legitimately challenge you to clarify such ideas as well. But I’m fine to discuss the points of my previous post, for now. This is also to say, that I wasn’t deflecting (from what exactly?), I was doing what I think it’s most certainly appropriate to do in this forum, even when talking about the war in Ukraine. But you do not need to take my word for it, because my comments and questions remain philosophically legitimate EVEN IF I was deflecting. So the point is not really about my intentions in trying to play the philosophical game (as I understand it), but if you are interested or not to play it independently from my intentions.

↪neomac
You think playing coy is a way to be taken seriously on this forum?

Ask me three honest and straightforward questions, and I'll answer them for you. I have no patience for whatever game you're trying to play. — Tzeentch

Dude, as far as I’m concerned, that’s a philosophy forum, not a political forum, not a military forum, not a Tzeench-certified forum. So I have no idea what philosophy is to you, but to me it is at least to investigate very basic (mostly implicit) assumptions of somebody’s beliefs. That’s the game I’m trying to play with you and others for my own personal intellectual entertainment, as I repeatedly stated in this thread. And that’s the game I expect others to try to play here, especially if they want me to take them seriously. So I addressed many “honest and straightforward questions” about your assumptions to you in my last post according to the game I’m trying to play. I don’t expect you to try to answer all of them at once. But if you really have no patience to the game I’m trying to play here then my “honest and straightforward question” to you is: Why should I (colloquially, morally, strategically, legally, or politically) give a shit about it exactly?

“Evil” in a moral sense? — neomac


No, 'evil' in a colloquial sense… — Tzeentch

“Colloquial”? Not sure to understand. Is, for example, covid evil in a colloquial sense?
How about examples of colloquially “necessary evil”? Vaccins are necessary evil for unnecessary evil covid?

...so why do you think “neocon foreign policy” deserves the title of “primary” cause of this war? — neomac


Because this conflict started when the United States (led by the neocon foreign policy establishment) expressed its desire to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, and they never over the course of some 15 years took Russia's objections seriously. — Tzeentch

That’s a very problematic claim for several reasons:
1 - the United States expressed their desire also in 2008, but grievances about the US involvement in Ukraine and the Soviet Union’s ex-sphere of influence started well before 2008 and before Putin. On the other hand, in 2008 it turned out that Western countries were reluctant to let Ukraine join NATO no matter what the American desire was. Besides the conflict with Russia didn’t turn into a “real” conflict until 2014, while the Westerners were still against Ukraine joining NATO (Russia’s could enjoy the support of France, Germany, Hungary, Turkey to veto this). Not to mention that we had Trump antagonising the West more than Russia. So there seem to be many starts here, and many conflicts involving the US’s desire to expand its sphere of influence in Ukraine which anyway weren’t sufficient to let Ukraine join NATO (and that also proves that the West took Russia’s security concerns seriously to the point of refusing Ukraine within NATO). BTW why did it take Russia so long to invade Ukraine if the provocation was so obvious and intolerable for 15 years?
2 - The idea that the conflict started with the US expressing “its desire to incorporate Ukraine into NATO” makes likely sense in Russian strategic perspective, not in the Ukrainian, American or Western perspective, because the West and Ukraine do not share Russia's strategic perspective as much as they don’t share the Russian national interest. For Ukraine, Russia may have likely started the conflict by protesting over its sovereignty and territorial integrity. For the US, the conflict may have likely started when Russia protested against the Western-led world order since the fall of Soviet Union. You can blame it on the neocon agenda as much as I can blame it on Russian imperialism which is much older than neocon agenda. And Russia couldn’t possibly expect that the US as the hegemon would refrain from “expressing DESIRES” because Russia demanded it, especially when Russia wasn’t still that scary. ESPECIALLY if the US wasn’t hostile toward Russia, because it offered globalization in return which empowered Russia (and made it scary as it is now) way more than the threat of Ukraine joining NATO weakened Russia economically and militarily. Am I right? Russia too didn't perceive NATO as significantly hostile since there NATO there were conjoint exercises with the Russians against Islamic terrorism (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_103663.htm) as the greatest security threat for the West and Russia. Right?
3 - We have repeatedly been told that Russians’ grievances started with the broken promise over NATO expansion, so by the same logic should we expect Russia will invade the ex-Warsaw pact states and ex-Soviet Union republics? Or should we just roll back NATO as requested by Putin in his diplomatic negotiations with the West to respect Russia’s strategic concerns seriously (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/)?
4 - I still don’t see the reason why you keep talking about “primary cause”. A possible alternative could be “primary reason“ instead of “primary cause”, couldn’t it? It would make sense to talk about primary reason if we take incorporating Ukraine into NATO as the primary security concern to Russia under certain assumptions (among which we must include Russia’s “hegemonic ambitions”). So I do wonder why you keep talking about “primary cause” instead of “primary reason”. Also a rapist “primary cause” for rape may be the raped teenager was dressed sexy. If somebody said "the teenager started her rapist’s aggression", would make this claim sense to you? What would be the point of making such claim exactly?

So states do not enjoy moral rights but they enjoy legal rights like right to self-defence? How so? — neomac


States are not moral actors, so they have no moral rights. Individuals have moral rights.

And states obviously have legal rights because virtually all states on the world have signed the UN charter and thus recognize the legitimacy of international law, which includes a right to national self-defense. — Tzeentch

I’m not sure you understood my question: “How come that the abstractness of the notion of ‘state’ allows a state to enjoy legal rights but not moral rights?”
Given your input, I can reformulate it as follows: states as abstract entities (which I charitably understand as “legal institutions”, am I wrong?) can’t possibly sign UN charters nor recognise the legitimacy of international law by themselves, while individual agents as state representatives can and do. Who signs is a concrete individual human being or a bunch of concrete individual human beings, not an abstract legal entity, right? But individuals as state representatives can still be morally and legally accountable, even if that involves an “abstract” institutional entity, right? If so, state representatives (like Putin, Biden, Zelensky) are morally and legally accountable based on acknowledged state rights.

Besides if you acknowledge that Ukraine has a legal right to self-defence and the West is not violating international laws by military supporting Ukraine, what should we do with the “provocation” accusation from Putin which doesn’t look neither moral nor legal, in your views? — neomac


I'm not sure what 'provocation accusation' you're talking about, — Tzeentch

I'm talking about this:

As you probably know, my view is that the Russians were provoked into invading Ukraine. — Tzeentch

It's clear to me that this war was purposefully provoked. — Tzeentch

but what Europe should do is pull the plug on military support for Ukraine. Helping another nation exercise their right to self-defense is only rational if it has a chance of succeeding. There is no such chance in the case of the Ukraine war, and thus Europe should not contribute to the illusion that Ukraine can win this war. Stopping the support will hopefully will bring Ukraine to stop sacrificing its people in vain sooner rather than later — Tzeentch

.

I still don’t get how come you keep talking about what Europe should do, so in normative terms, over legal institutions in other terms than legal. Apparently there are “strategic” normative claims besides “moral” and “legal” (and "colloquial"?), yet it’s not clear how you assess strategic normative claims. To me strategic normative claims in politics of national states should be processed by taking into account national states’ priorities in the long term: for example, Ukraine’s priority is to preserve sovereignty and territorial integrity even at the expense of Russia’s hegemonic ambitions, for Russia is to pursue hegemonic ambitions at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty and the US’s hegemony, for the US is to pursue hegemonic ambitions at the expense of its competitors (including Russia). Concerning Europe, AFAIU, the priority is to preserve political stability under American protection (which is why Europeans can sacrifice trade relations with Russia and China).
Besides I don’t know how you assess the chance for success in strategy (especially if military goals must be distinguished from political goals). Does Hamas have any chance of military/political success in fighting Israel’s occupation of Gaza? Is it rational for Palestinians to support Hamas? Why do many foreign states (including Western state) politically, economically and/or military support Palestinians if they have no chance of succeeding? Should Europeans stop financing Palestinians and stop acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state?

If Ukraine wants to continue throwing its people's lives away, then that's their right. However, Europe should not make itself complicit in such a senseless waste of life. — Tzeentch

How can Europe be “complicit” if European states and EU are just legal entities and Europe is not violating international laws by supporting Ukraine? Are you talking in moral terms?
If it makes sense to them, why do you call it “senseless waste of life”?
Given your military analysis, I understand why you reached your conclusion. Yet I don’t think military analysis suffices to determine political choices. I suspect that it is the other way around. For the good and for the bad. In any case, it is hard to prove that costly choices in the present would repay well in the future. This is the Russian bet anyways and the challenge to the West.

Is Putin’s aggression of Ukraine pure “evil” or just “necessary evil”? — neomac


The war in Ukraine is completely pointless and a shining example of the unnecessary evil of states - all states involved, including the state of Ukraine itself. — Tzeentch

Is this still a strategic claim? Or a “colloquial” claim? Or a “moral” claim? Or a “legal” claim?

Why not in the same way? What is the difference? — neomac

The difference is that Russia tried to find a diplomatic solution, but was snubbed by the Americans on every occasion.
Israel on the other hand did everything it could to prevent a diplomatic solution. — Tzeentch

Is this some colloquial/moral/strategic/legal normative claim or a factual claim? Because if it is a factual claim, it is questionable (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process). Besides we do not know if diplomatic efforts would work with Russia, since Russia repeatedly threatened and violated Ukrainian’s sovereignty despite all past agreements. Agreements will give Russia the chance to stabilise its conquests and keep destabilising Ukraine.
Besides this shows another difference relevant for diplomatic solutions: Russia is threatening/violating Ukrainian sovereign integrity after repeatedly acknowledging it while Israel didn’t acknowledge Palestine as a sovereign state. The diplomatic solution sought by Russia is grounded on condoning a fundamental international law violation (territorial annexations) which even the Great Satan never dared to commit so far, right?

I'm a classic liberal in the practical sense, and an anarchist in an idealist sense.
For me, states are a 'necessary evil' at their very best, and more often than not just 'evil’. — Tzeentch

“Evil” in a moral sense? But if states are not moral agent, why do you call them “evil” or “necessarily evil”?
Are they evil in the same sense the covid pandemic is?

My arguments vis-á-vis Ukraine are not moral in nature, and the idea that this war is primarily caused by neocon foreign policy is not moral either.

Sometimes the sheer disgust I feel towards some of the clowns that inhabit the spheres of international politics shines through. Sue me. — Tzeentch

Those aren't moral 'shoulds' though, and attributing blame isn't necessarily moral in nature either. These are questions of cause & effect, strategy, etc. — Tzeentch

You mean the same disgust you would certainly feel toward the corona virus that has killed almost 7 million deaths (since Jan ’22) according to some estimates?
As far as I’m concerned, I find causal links very misleading in attributing responsibilities if we do not assume moral agency.
Indeed, how can you even determine that the war was primarily caused by neocon foreign policy instead of being primarily cause by what caused neocon foreign policy ? Or by what caused the cause of neocon foreign policy? O by what caused the cause of the cause of the neocon foreign policy?
In a pool of concurrent causes for this war haw do you determine what is primary and what is non-primary?
Wars are a very common pattern in the entire human history and most certainly well prior than the diffusion of “neocon foreign policy”, and we can find reasons for war across a wide range of incompatible regime driving ideologies, so why do you think “neocon foreign policy” deserves the title of “primary” cause of this war?

States are abstractions and not moral actors, so they have no moral rights.

As I said, morality is simply not a useful lens through which to evaluate the behavior of states.

Note that in the case of the Israel discussion, Israel has no legal right to self-defense, which is why the discussion shifted to the question of whether it had a moral right.

And no, of course my belief is not that Putin has a moral right to invade Ukraine.

For the purpose of this discussion I've always supposed Ukraine had a legal right to self-defense and that Russia's invasion is illegal, and never claimed otherwise. The basis for that is international law, and not morality. — Tzeentch

So states do not enjoy moral rights but they enjoy legal rights like right to self-defence? How so?
How come that the abstractness of the notion of “state” allows a state to enjoy legal rights but not moral rights?
Besides if you acknowledge that Ukraine has a legal right to self-defence and the West is not violating international laws by military supporting Ukraine,
what should we do with the “provocation” accusation from Putin which doesn’t look neither moral nor legal, in your views? Is Putin’s aggression of Ukraine pure “evil” or just “necessary evil”?

Let’s do another test, if I claimed: “Russia should stop illegally occupying Ukraine. That's an action that it can and should undertake unilaterally.
They should stop illegally occupying Ukraine, and stop committing human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity. As long as Russia is the occupier and refuses to carry out the relevant UN resolutions, RUSSIA IS THE PROBLEM”.
Would you agree with that? — neomac


No, I don't believe Russia is responsible for the conflict in Ukraine in the same way that Israel is responsible for the war in Gaza.

Russia is part of the problem, and its invasion and occupation are illegal. I can agree to that much. — Tzeentch

Why not in the same way? What is the difference?

The problem is Europeans' free riding can also weaken NATO deterrence power (given Russia, given China, given Trump). In the end, only wars can prove the reliability and efficacy of a military alliance.

Things are looking grim for Europeans. Despite the Western propaganda and the US hegemony, the compelling point of the "Western world order" was/is not much "the Rest of the world must be like us because we are awesome" but more "either the Rest becomes more like us or we will (need to) become more like them". The European populist and nationalist movements are already on the rise.

Is this simply the primacy of economics having become to ingrained, so European leaders have trouble actively shaping a geopolitical policy? — Echarmion

The war in Ukraine was a wake up call for Europeans:
Europe is not prepared for a war with Russia and is in danger of being “washed away” in a conflict, much as the Holy Roman Empire was broken up by Napoleon, Germany’s pre-eminent military historian has warned.

At a high-level defence conference in Berlin, several German generals also suggested that Nato might be unable to win the “first battle” in a defensive war on its eastern flank, because it would struggle to ship sufficient numbers of troops and equipment to the front line quickly enough.

Sönke Neitzel, professor of military history at Potsdam University and the leading academic authority on the modern German armed forces, described the logistics as a “nightmare” and said it could take at least 15 years before Germany was ready for
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/europes-weak-armed-forces-could-be-washed-away-by-russia-bmxbc22gc

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/04/white-house-ukraine-military-aid-warning

Zelensky is under pressure internally:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/4/7431535/
https://www.20min.ch/story/interview-vitali-klitschko-ueber-selenski-sprichwoerter-korruption-und-neid-263819931851

From a moral standpoint I view states as being fundamentally flawed from the outset. — Tzeentch

Meaning?

But my engagement in the discussion about the Ukraine war has never been moral in nature. Morality isn't even a useful lens through which to view the conduct of states, since they are not moral actors — Tzeentch

.

Do you mean that “those were blocked by the US simply to save Washington's ego” and “how many thousands of lives and billions in damages is Washington's ego worth?” do not express moral evaluations? Neither “my perspective presupposes peaceful coexistence is (or "should be") the goal of nations. Sadly, many nations and certainly the U.S. are not driven by that goal”?

How about the conduct of Putin, Zelensky, Biden, Macron, Scholz, Boris Johnson? Can we assess their political choices morally since they are moral actors? How about “These people are unhinged. The Netanyahu regime has got to go. Can we get regime change in Israel, please?” ? Does it express a moral evaluation?

Ukraine has a right to defend itself from a standpoint of international law, which is something I would never deny.

You have to pay attention to what is said, not fill in the blanks with what you would like to believe "I meant". — Tzeentch

If you do not want me to fill in the blanks, as you claim, you should try to be more clear next time. Here is what I got so far, about your beliefs: Ukraine has a right to defend itself from a standpoint of international law. But not right to defend itself from a standpoint of morality because… it is not a moral actor?
Now the question: Putin who is a moral actor (right?) can invade Ukraine and violate its right from a standpoint of international law because from a moral point of view Ukraine has no right to self-defence?

As for the rest, I believe Ukraine will achieve nothing by continuing to fight, except for a worse bargaining position and further destruction of Ukraine.

There's nothing 'pro-Russian' about that, even if it's not what cheerleaders want to hear.

Yes, I believe Russia most-likely achieved its primary objectives. Yes, I believe the Ukrainiain bargaining position has only deteriorated since the negotiations of March/April 2022.

And on the topic of trust; it's Ukraine who stands to lose most in this war, so trust or no trust, refusing negotiations will only deteriorate its position further. — Tzeentch

What you have conveniently removed from this presentation of your views is all your normative claims about what Ukrainian should have done, what the US/Europeans should do, and who is to blame. Besides pro-Russian propaganda could make the same arguments, even if that’s what you do not want to hear. Indeed, you are still arguing based on factual claims that you believe compelling in their accuracy and sufficient to support surrender.
Let’s do another test, if I claimed: “Russia should stop illegally occupying Ukraine. That's an action that it can and should undertake unilaterally.
They should stop illegally occupying Ukraine, and stop committing human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity. As long as Russia is the occupier and refuses to carry out the relevant UN resolutions, RUSSIA IS THE PROBLEM”.
Would you agree with that?

Again easy to retort. You are cheerleading Ukrainian surrender to Russian demands. — neomac


No, I'm not. Quote me if you believe I'm saying that.

Perhaps you take my cynical views of Washington's stake in this war as 'pro-Russian', but that's simply a mischaracterization. — Tzeentch

I don’t believe you said that. I believe you mean that. Indeed, if these are your assumptions:
1. You believe that state do not have the right to fight in self-defence [1]
2. You believe that Russia succeeded in its military goals (faint around Kiev and securing land bridge in the south) and Ukraine failed (it didn’t free the annexed territories)
3. That the US support (followed by weak European leaders) is cynically exploitative. And that “If anything I believe the Europeans should stop backing the war in Ukraine and encourage the Americans to leave as fast as possible.”
4. You keep repeating that in March Ukraine had the best chance to end the war and that Ukraine should negotiate regardless of the broken trust.

The argument you are pushing is something like Ukrainians have no points:
- in fighting in self-defence of their country,
- in pursuing a military victory over Russia because Russia has won on the battlefield and Ukrainian objectives are unattainable
- in relying to the US military support (either because the US is exploitative or because if it wasn’t it should stop supporting Ukraine anyways)
But Ukraine should try to negotiate anyways despite the lack of trust from the Russians, at least at the conditions of March / April 2022 (which equates to a negotiation for surrender if there are no security guarantees from other countries, which ones? The exploitative US won’t give them and it can not be trusted anyways), if Russia accepts it (what if Russia wants more?) [2][3]. So practically without leverage (which was the American military support and willingness to keep fighting), with the priority to spare “many thousands of lives and billions in damages”, and with no territorial concessions nor security guarantees.
If that is not “surrender”, I don’t know what is.

But let’s have a look at how you argue when Russia is not the aggressor [4]. No argument to support the idea that Palestinians have no right to fight to defend their idea of state, that freeing Palestine with a war is unattainable and Israel is winning by grabbing and securing more land, that Iran is exploiting Palestinians (and other hegemonically ambitious players too in the Arab world and outside), and that Palestinians should negotiate with Israel with the peace deal on terms that Israel is willing to accept. It’s all about what Israel should do.



[1]

↪javra
I agree that there is such a thing as self-defense. I just don't think it applies to war in general because what is actually being defended is not a person, but an idea of a state, territory, national pride, etc. — Tzeentch

[2]

Right now it will be very difficult to come to a peace agreement, since trust between Russia and the West has been completely shattered (it should be attempted regardless). — Tzeentch

[3]

When peace talks were started in late March, that should have been the end of the war. — Tzeentch

How far should the situation in Ukraine deterioriate before we can agree the peace accords that were on the table in March / April 2022, scarcely a month into the war, should have been carried out instead of blocked by the US?

Those were blocked by the US simply to save Washington's ego. Flipping Ukraine pro-western has been a decades-long project of the Neocon foreign policy blob, under leadership of chief blob Nuland.

How many thousands of lives and billions in damages is Washington's ego worth? — Tzeentch

[4]

Israel should stop illegally occupying Gaza and the West Bank. That's an action that it can and should undertake unilaterally. — Tzeentch

They should stop illegally occupying Gaza and the West Bank, and stop committing human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity. As long as Israel is the occupier and refuses to carry out the relevant UN resolutions, Israel is the problem. — Tzeentch