The use of nukes against Ukraine is still incredibly unlikely to lead to a strategic nuclear exchange with NATO. — boethius
A tactical nuke would however put them in a position where they have nothing left in terms of diplomacy with the west. Russia would solidify its existence as a criminal nation and they would probably not be able to heal any diplomatic ties for a very very long time. It's basically the nail in the coffin for Russia as a nation, slowly disintegrating down into a nation that's falling behind on any front. In 20 years, the world will have moved past them in every way, probably putting up defensive systems around the nation to block any attempts of nukes going out of it while the technological advancements outside of Russia will make them look like the stone age.
Many here argue for each nation to be responsible for their own development, that it's each and every independent nation's right to develop however they want. That also means that actions stretching outside of a nation can have consequences; that becoming an isolated nation is part of the internal development each independent nation is responsible for. No one is to blame for Russia's failures and how they're now treated. The rest of the world can choose however they want to interact with Russia and if they don't want to interact with them, then Russia has no right to demand anything.
However the outcome of this conflict may be, there will be no way for Russia to "heal" even if the war ends as long as the top people, including Putin stays in power. As long as they are there, Russia will be isolated. The only way back for Russia would be to conduct a total reform of government, to show the world that they're not the crazy asswipes they are now. They brought this on themselves.
However, if Ukrainians do "win" and push the Russians back to their borders then certainly everyone would agree that's failure, and nukes would be the only thing left at that point. — boethius
Ukraine might continue to fight as long as there's material support from the west. They had massive morale going into defending their country and being able to push back the big bear Russia this much would seriously have boosted their morale even further, combined with the anger of the war crimes.
I don't think Ukraine will settle easily, they want justice for Russia's crimes and they might fight until every single Russian in Ukraine is killed, captured, or sent home.
Untrue.
Lot's of conventional military options still available.
The use of nukes against Ukraine is still incredibly unlikely to lead to a strategic nuclear exchange with NATO. — boethius
Tactical nukes won't be the same as regular nuclear weapons.
But the problem is that their regular efforts have been pathetically bad so far. Even when all the experts said that the battle for the eastern region would be more conventional mechanical warfare in open areas and that Russia has the advantage, we haven't even seen that yet.
They continue to fail because they're stupid. Only stupid armies dig trenches in the Red forest. This kind of stupidity is obviously more widespread than just those soldiers and leaders in Chornobyl. And they can't use air superiority because of their inability to use high-tech GPS missiles, so the pilots need to drop down under 5000 meters in order to strike at visible range, which is dangerous because of ground troop MANPADS.
So all they have is maybe bunker busters and large long-range missiles that do massive damage. But that could lead to such devastation that Ukraine needs to retaliate in order to stop it, meaning firing at a much larger scale into Russian territory, especially to take out those launch sites.
The thing is that the conventional military options from Russia should have been seen by now, but they aren't, because it would risk diluting the entire Russian army to the point where the nation is seriously undefended. The Russian army is stupid, low on morale have worn out old tech (some drones found were fueled by a DIY water bottle because they didn't have the actual tanks), they are pretty pathetic and there's little for them to do but just brute force try with what they have.
The only thing that is a large risk is that they blow Kyiv up with a nuke right before May 9th to spin some bullshit story that they "had to". But if they do, the rest of the world will do everything in their power to destroy Russia, and rightfully so (not talking about nukes, but about other means, including extreme isolated economical means).
They may not see it that way, nor care. US used Nukes against Japan and Russia could use the exact same reasoning of needing nukes to save the lives of their soldiers. — boethius
The consequences of the nukes in Japan should not be understated. It wasn't trivial, it was world-defining and there weren't any political or existential consequences imagined before the bombings as there were after the bombings. Historical context is very important here.
If anyone in the world were to nuke a city today, that nation would be in such serious trouble that they might as well nuke themselves in the process. Russia won't care, of course, but it would solidify their isolation to the point where I think not even China would feel comfortable dealing with them. Russia would become persona non grata everywhere and that's all fine and good in their opinion... until it isn't.
People forget that the reason such consequences didn't happen for the US was that there were no protocols, no modern international law or any such things in place as we have them today. The world changed for the better after world war II to prevent such acts to happen again with the US very much at the helm of such preventative acts. The reason they still have nukes is for the same reason anyone has them, as a deterrent.
Russia on the other hand doesn't talk about nukes in the same way, they have them as actual military options. So it's an ocean between how Russia handles nukes and how the US handles nukes, regardless of the US being the only nation who previously used them before. The argument that "because they used them before, everyone else is innocent and the US is always the guilty one", in this context, is a ridiculous logic that has nothing to do with Russia's actions right now.
The use of nukes post the use in Hiroshima/Nagasaki is an extremely different matter than in a world that had never seen those consequences. The disregard of such historical context makes it impossible to discuss these things in a modern context and it becomes a ridiculous circle jerk of changing perspectives based on a "pick and choose" historical reference rhetoric. The fact is that no one in their right mind would use nukes today, the US would never use nukes as an offensive measure because the consequences would be so extreme that even if it doesn't lead to nuclear war, the political fallout would be suicide for the US if they did and they absolutely know it. Russia however, does not have the same mindset as they have nuclear arms as actual military options, not just as a deterrent, its part of their war machine in another way.
Russia's reasoning doesn't matter, only their actions do. And if they use nukes, they can sit there and think that they're on top of the world, but their nation will become an isolated cesspool of decades-old technology in a nation just living through survival of national food supply and rusting cars with no actual progress.
The Russian people will care when their nation is in the gutter, at least the people will care when they realize what they could have had if not for the fat and rich elite in the Kremlin fucking their nation up so hard. This is how revolutions happen and if things go down this route, there will be civil war in Russia.
Unclear. As has been discussed at length, only the West is angry with Russia and no one else seems to care about it. If anything the large majority of the world feels satisfactory schadenfreude that the reckless and cynical warring ways of the West is coming home to roost (regardless of "who started it"). — boethius
But this isn't true, the majority is against Russia's invasion, as seen through UN's votes.
141 of the 193 member states voted for the resolution, 35 abstained and five voted against
The way you describe what "the rest of the world" feels are your own feelings not reflected in the real world. And the risks to Europe is there because we live next door to Russia so it's fully reasonable that a nation on the other side of the world won't care, but so far the global condemning of Russia's actions are very consistent anyway.
And if they use nukes they're done. There will be harsh diplomatic consequences for nations who support Russia if they nuked a major city. Even if they just use tactical nukes on military objectives, it would be a diplomatic nightmare for nations turning to Russia.
And who would want to? They have nothing but oil really, look at their export variety. When the world moves on from oil dependency, what would Russia really have? I mean, we're talking about decades of economical progress, it took this long for Russia to get on their feet after the soviet union fell and the sanctions and economic collapse they see now has thrown them back 30 years. If the sanctions keep in place and no one wants to work there as a career choice, and people in Russia rather move out of the country if they want to work in anything other than farming, then the coming 30 years won't see an economic heal that we've seen previously since the early 90s. That will also happen during 30 years of progress in the west.
Russia will be a shithole if things stay in place and any nuke from them would be the nail in the coffin. If they aren't aware of this, that's their stupid hubris talking, the same hubris that put them in the embarrassing position they're in right now.