Comments

  • Aristotle's Metaphysics
    However, says Hotschild, what this doesn't see is that there is not a 1:1 relationship between 'forms' and their manifestations:

    "among all the kinds of forms which can be signified by terms, according to Aquinas, there is no one uniform way in which they exist. The existence of the form “sight,” by which the eye sees, may be some positive presence in the nature of things..."
    Wayfarer

    You're re-quoting what I had just criticized as verbiage and muddled thinking.

    Doesn't that bolded statement seem strange to you?

    It should. It's unnatural language. It asserts the existence of a mysterious entity that has causal powers. And it doesn't explain anything. How does the eye see? By a "sight" form?!

    I think we can do better. How about:

    The eye is a round organ that is used for seeing.

    That's an intelligible sentence describing the eye's functional shape (form) and what the eye is for (final cause).

    The point is that the author doesn't need to write paragraphs elaborating on Aquinas' strategies for mitigating the problems that Occam identified. He just needs to apply Occam's Razor and start over, preferably by trying to understand the natural distinctions Aristotle was making, rather than trying to recover whatever the Scholastics were doing. Aristotle was not positing Platonic existents, he was investigating the form and function of observable things.

    Philosophy since Galileo has tended to through Aristotle out with the bathwater of geocentrism. I think the reason Aristotle is making a comeback, is because the notion of formal and final cause is indispensable to any mature philosophy.Wayfarer

    I agree.
  • Aristotle's Metaphysics
    for Aristotle, the wheel is circular independent of human thought or language.
    — Andrew M

    key point. It is real independently of any particular mind, but can only be grasped by a rational intellect. See Augustine on Intelligible Objects (foot of page).
    Wayfarer

    It takes a human being to understand that a wheel is circular. OK. It implies that the world is intelligible, which Aristotle held. It doesn't imply a prior and separate Platonic realm.

    This essay contains a deep analysis of Ockham's criticism of scholastic realism and its momentous consequences for Western thought.Wayfarer

    The author spends a lot of time referencing Aquinas and other Scholastics, and none referencing Aristotle. Consider the author's take on formal cause:

    "The existence of the form 'sight' by which the eye sees" and "fire warms by informing objects with its heat."

    That is the kind of verbiage and muddled thinking that Occam was right to reject.

    I agree with you that Nominalism is mistaken. But in this case I think it's necessary to clear the ground and take a fresh look at the original Aristotle.
  • Aristotle's Metaphysics
    As I understand it, the essence or universal of circularity is in the circular object, because for Aristotle, concrete objects demonstrate mathematical properties (weight, volume, extension, etc.) The essence of circularity is not floating around in a Platonic heaven somewhere.DS1517

    Yes, Plato conceived of Forms in a separate and prior realm. Whereas Aristotle conceived of form in the world itself (per hylomorphism), neither prior to nor separate from it.

    Occam took exception to the Scholastic tendency (partly influenced by Neoplatonism) to multiply and reify forms (hence Occam's Razor). Whereas for Aristotle, a wheel is circular, but that circularity is not a separate entity. It is instead a characteristic of the wheel that can be abstracted and considered separately, even though it is not actually separate. Which then leads to your question below...

    I think it is correct to say that Aristotle believed we could understand mathematics in a more abstract sense, as mathematics and logic are derived from being and particular objects. He also mentions in the Posterior Analytics that the mind is so constituted that we can apprehend and understand these more abstract principles. The above quote from Aristotle's Metaphysics seems to indicate that he didn't think mathematics exists in the same way other things exist (which I think is intuitively correct). However, does that make Aristotle a conceptualist or nominalist? (I know conceptualism and nominalism are later philosophical phenomena. However, I had a professor tell me that Aristotle laid the intellectual foundation for nominalism and I'm trying to figure out for myself if that is really true.)DS1517

    The difference is that Occam conceived of form as not in the world but in the mind, as concepts or as names for perceived similarities. But for Aristotle, the wheel is circular independent of human thought or language.

    The difference between each of these philosophical positions is the relation between matter and form.
  • Sending People Through Double Slits
    What if you shrunk people down to the size of an electron and used them in the famous "double slit experiment"? Would you get the same results? What would the experiences of the people be?RogueAI

    Each person would see that they pass through either the left slit or the right slit. As long as you couldn't obtain which-way information from the people or apparatus (e.g., their memory was erased after passing through the slit), then you would observe interference, otherwise not.

    It's similar to the Wigner's friend thought experiment.
  • Aristotle's Metaphysics
    Another thought ... Perhaps a Platonic objection but I was wondering what you thought. From an Aristotelian perspective, if I could destroy all the circular objects in the world, would I have successfully destroyed the essence of circularity? What might an Aristotelian response be? (I've read Aristotle but I can't remember if he addresses this question.)DS1517

    I think demonstrating the potential for circular objects is sufficient to ground mathematical circles. And since mathematical circles can be considered in separation from circular objects anyway (see the earlier Aristotle quote), the contingency of circular objects has no effect on mathematical practice.

    Absent a demonstrable grounding, circles might be regarded as mysterious or dubious, just as negative numbers and complex numbers have been in the past before constructive visualizations were found for them.
  • Aristotle's Metaphysics
    I think that is correct. Aristotle believed that mathematical properties are immanent within concrete objects. I'm wondering how he would account for the laws of logic and the principles of mathematics that make geometry and math possible in the first place? I'm guessing they are just abstractions of concrete objects or fundamental principles of being?DS1517

    To take the law of non-contradiction as an example, Aristotle regards it as a fundamental principle of being ("It is not possible for the same thing at the same time both to belong and not belong to the same thing in the same respect" - Met. 1005b19-20). That distinguishes his view (immanent realism) from both Platonism (that the LNC exists in separation from being) and Nominalism (that the LNC is just a law of thought).
  • Visual math
    Could you guys share your philosophy of math with me?frank

    Aristotelian realism. The world has a mathematical structure (form) that we can investigate.

    The essay that @Wayfarer highlighted in the Aristotle thread is a good summary. It even mentions visualization:

    Our developed human intellectual abilities add two things to those simple perceptions. The first is visualisation, which allows us to understand necessary relations between mathematical facts. Try this easy mental exercise: imagine six crosses arranged in two rows of three crosses each, one row directly above the other. I can equally imagine the same six crosses as three columns of two each. Therefore 2 × 3 = 3 × 2. I not only notice that 2 × 3 is in fact equal to 3 × 2, I understand why 2 × 3 must equal 3 × 2.The mathematical world - James Franklin
  • Coronavirus
    Based on recent studies on herd immunity, about 7% of people in the Stockholm region have antibodies to Coronavirus. So Sweden's cases and deaths may increase tenfold before reaching herd immunity.

    An alternative strategy is to eliminate the virus. Almost 50 countries (and 7 US states) have less than 20 cases daily. Some such as NZ may already have eliminated it (the protests there will be a test of that).
  • Coronavirus
    Norway regrets lock down.Chester

    Solberg says at the end of the article, "I think it was the right to do at the time," she said. "Based on the information we had, we took a precautionary strategy."

    Adopting a precautionary strategy is the correct approach when the risk is uncertain and potentially devastating.

    Norway is in a good position as a result of their lockdown (they are averaging 15 cases a day compared to Sweden's 500 cases a day). So they shouldn't need to lock down again - other effective and less costly options are available to them.
  • Aristotle's Metaphysics
    I've read some of Aristotle but I'm no expert. I am wondering what an Aristotelian response might be to abstract objects such as the principles and axioms of mathematics? Are those pure abstractions to an Aristotelian?DS1517

    As you may know, Aristotle was an immanent realist, not a Platonic realist. He regarded mathematical objects as an aspect of the world that could be investigated (albeit in a more abstract sense), not as existing apart from it (in the sense of Plato's Forms which he rejected).

    The best way to conduct an investigation in every case is to take that which does not exist in separation and consider it separately; which is just what the arithmetician or the geometrician does. — Aristot. Met. 13.1078a
  • Visual math
    Wow! So an idea can interfere with visualization? Change your ideas and new doors open for visualization?frank

    In the case of complex numbers, the idea was sound but there was initially no visualization. It was just a technique that allowed mathematicians to solve special types of cubic equations but seemed otherwise mysterious.

    Whereas the geometric interpretation provides insight. For example, Euler's identity



    can be visualized by subtracting 1 from both sides. Then -1 is equivalent to starting with 1 and growing laterally at a rate of pi.
  • Visual math
    The 3,4,5 probably came from a technique for building structures that have 90 degree angles.frank

    The Pythagorean Theorem is also useful for visualizing relativistic spacetime.

    Consider the twin paradox. Suppose Alice stays at home in lockdown for a year while Bob evades lockdown and travels a round-trip distance of 0.6 light years (6 trillion kilometers). How much older is Bob when he returns (at the end of Alice's year in lockdown)?

    Both Alice and Bob travel over the same length of spacetime. However Bob trades off some time for the space that he has traveled. This trade-off is visually represented by a right-angled triangle, like so:
    "
                            /|
    Alice's elapsed time = / | Bob's elapsed time?
      1 year              /  |   √(1^2 - 0.6^2) =
                         /   |   0.8 years (9.6 months)
                        ------
                 Bob's travel distance =
                   0.6 light years (in Alice's reference frame)
    "
    

    But which came first: the idea or the visualization?frank

    Sometimes the visualization comes later than the idea. For example, the rotational picture for complex numbers came later:

    That this subject [imaginary numbers] has hitherto been surrounded by mysterious obscurity, is to be attributed largely to an ill adapted notation. If, for example, +1, -1, and the square root of -1 had been called direct, inverse and lateral units, instead of positive, negative and imaginary (or even impossible), such an obscurity would have been out of the question. — Carl Friedrich Gauss
  • Coronavirus
    The test method is close to fool proof. Nevertheless about 1 to 8% false positives occur with these type of tests due to laboratory conditions. Human error unfortunately. Depends a lot on which country it even which testing facility you're talking about.Benkei

    Do you have a reference for the 1-8% false positives? I'm curious how those numbers could be arrived at even granting human error or poor lab protocols.

    As I understand it, a lab has to initially test samples from a reference lab to demonstrate that they are doing their tests correctly. Secondly, they would normally run controls to rule out issues such as cross-contamination.

    Now suppose a sample was contaminated and tests positive. How would anyone know it was a false positive? It seems to me that either they wouldn't know or, if they did (per their controls), they would discard the sample.
  • Coronavirus
    I don't believe that's the case.Benkei

    See the earlier discussion and papers referenced here and here. If you still disagree, do you have a reference?

    Note: Clarified comment you responded to in case that was the issue
  • Coronavirus
    A real question. There's been much talk about false negatives in covid testing, saying it's up to 30%. I've read false positives are very rare.

    How do you know you have a false negative or false positive? If symptomatology is the gold standard, why have testing?
    Hanover

    False negatives will occur with RT-PCR tests if there isn't enough virus in the sample to be detected. While there's no certainty that a person doesn't have the virus with a negative test, the likelihood can be improved by testing on different days or with different tests.

    The good news, as frank notes, is that positive RT-PCR tests are 100% accurate. That is, they only test positive if a unique virus signature is detected.

    Whereas false positives are a big issue with serological/antibody tests since the detected antibodies may have been caused by a different infection (including other coronaviruses).

    Edit: Clarification about positive RT-PCR tests
  • Coronavirus
    Ebola wasn't eradicated though, it is endemic and is certain to reemerge from time to time (in fact there were confirmed cases in April).SophistiCat

    Yes, to clarify, the paper just describes outbreaks that were stopped in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

    It took three months, till mid December, for the same approach to be transferred to Sierra Leone, and the same thing happened — the number of cases declined rapidly. By March 2015, these interventions brought the number of active Ebola cases to zero in Liberia [20]. A few small outbreaks occurred later but they were stopped quickly. In the spring, the WHO stated in its reports that ‘community engagement’ was key to stopping the disease [21], and included the importance of community actions as a theme in their lessons learned [22,23].Yaneer Bar-Yam, How community response stopped Ebola, New England Complex Systems Institute (July 11, 2016).
  • Coronavirus
    The main problem in the idea that a certain country or area can "eradicate" the virus simply isn't reasonable NOW as the global pandemic is still going strong. Some countries, as you know, are unable to make a genuine effort on the federal level and opt to leave the states to invent their own policies. EU has been totally unable to coordinate anything as member states have chosen their own path to fight the virus. This is the biggest obstacle to the idea that just one country/area can with itself eradicate the virus and then live normally after.ssu

    Yes, it doesn't help if actors at the federal level actively promote the opposite of what needs to be done or are otherwise inept.

    Nonetheless if some communities (and countries) are successful in eradicating the virus, they will become a model for other regions to follow.

    So for the US and the EU, what I'm suggesting is a bottom-up approach (region by region) as opposed to a top-down approach.

    Yet I have to say that it is good marketing and a policy that can instill trust in the public that the officials are really prioritizing fighting the pandemic. Just like a leader of country at war will rally the people assuring victory for them and a defeat to the enemy. It wouldn't sound good to the people and the soldiers fighting to say: "Well, will continue to fight this war because we are confident we bleed them far more than we ourselves suffer losses and hence we'll get a better deal during the peace talks." The quite Clausewitzian approach doesn't sound so good and doesn't motivate anyone.ssu

    Yes. But I think the motivation here can come from the successes that have already been observed, and from the realization that better or worse outcomes really are, in some sense, up to us. They are not inevitably determined by invisible forces, in this case a virus.
  • Coronavirus
    I'd be grateful for any links.Isaac

    The best technical source I'm aware of on the eradication strategy is the New England Complex Systems Institute (Stopping the Coronavirus Pandemic).

    For example, see Pandemic Math, which explains how to change the virus transmission from a growing to a shrinking exponential.

    As mentioned earlier, this strategy was successful with the Ebola epidemic in 2014.
  • Coronavirus
    Especially Ebola is totally different: it is so deadly that it basically kills itself. With this virus it's quite the opposite with many people carrying and spreading the virus without any symptoms.ssu

    Local governments can close their borders and comprehensively test. That will either detect asymptomatics or, at least, isolate them within a geographical area until the virus is eradicated there. In Italy and Spain, some towns and regions did this voluntarily. For example:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/europe/zahara-de-la-sierra-coronavirus-intl/index.html

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048

    Eradicating the virus is a matter of collective will. The issue is only over whether communities do that now, or wait some number of months until the death rate and economic toll becomes unbearable before taking effective action. From the earlier paper:

    While early on there was a strong resistance to quarantines, by the following summer with the Ebola epidemic still a problem in Guinea, news reports were talking about how communities welcomed quarantine to finally get rid of the disease [25].Yaneer Bar-Yam, How community response stopped Ebola, New England Complex Systems Institute (July 11, 2016)

    The thing with eradication is problematic: what if the disease becomes like influenza, a disease the is now called "the common flu"? Will you have a quarantine procedures for rest of our lives? Will Iceland and New Zealand basically abolish tourism? I don't think so.ssu

    It depends on what the alternative looks like. If the alternative is potentially large numbers of people dying with no end in sight, then I'm sure they would abolish tourism. But realistically, they won't need to. They can simply partner with other regions that are also virus-free.
  • Coronavirus
    36,000+ NEEDLESS DEATHS.180 Proof

    :100:


    Unfortunately that interview is a mixed bag for me. While Osterholm correctly describes the problems the US are having, he seems to dismiss suppression/eradication as a strategy and apparently endorses a "slow burn" mitigation/herd immunity strategy instead.

    He mentions that apparently successful countries have had setbacks, as if that's the end of the story. The fact is that eradication of COVID-19 is a very real possibility for some countries, and there have been precedents of that with Ebola and SARS in the past.

    In the US, a few states are doing very well, such as Montana and Vermont. The key for them is to keep their borders closed to states that can't or won't control the virus and begin opening up with states that have controlled or, better, eradicated it. Once the actual infections are at zero, the virus can't emerge again unless it's re-introduced from another state.

    I don't think this needs to be as difficult as it's commonly assumed to be.

    For example, see the paper below showing how community monitoring and neighborhood quarantining was effective at stopping Ebola.

    The results were dramatic. The epidemic that was exponentially growing, fell exponentially [17] (see Fig. 5). To the confusion of some international observers, the expected number of sick people weren’t showing up at the special Ebola care facilities constructed in Liberia. Even two months later, reports in the news were saying that they didn’t know where bodies were, that they must be being hidden [18,19].

    ...

    The same principles of community-based intervention can be applied to a wide variety of potential diseases. Understanding the lessons of Ebola’s containment will allow for these policies to be implemented more effectively in the future, reducing the death toll of future epidemics and limiting the possibility of a larger pandemics.
    Yaneer Bar-Yam, How community response stopped Ebola, New England Complex Systems Institute (July 11, 2016)
  • Signaling Virtue with a mask,
    ↪Hanover Pantless people properly place protection on their publicly presented penises. I live in Lutheran Lockdown Land so there are no pantless persons, alas.Bitter Crank

    This presents a problem in Philadelphia which is why they had to issue a public health warning about it...


    https://twitter.com/PHLPublicHealth/status/1255941752164401153
  • Signaling Virtue with a mask,
    How much does an effective mask cost? Forty dollars? Sorry, we're not all rich.neonspectraltoast

    You can make your own. Even home-made masks provide some level of protection.
  • Signaling Virtue with a mask,
    There is no such scientific consensus. The evidence is mixed, but the consensus, if anything, is that masks are somewhat effective, some more than others. Don't fall victim to all-or-nothing thinking: even a 20% reduction of the probability of transmission is better than nothing.SophistiCat

    And if everyone wore masks then that would mean there would be a double barrier between people.

    Also a 20% reduction in the reproduction number (R) can mean a disproportionately large reduction in infections and deaths after a number of infection rounds.

    For example, suppose R is 2 (i.e., a single person infects 2 others who each then go on to infect 2 others and so on). On the 10th infection round, 1024 people would be infected (2^10), for a total of 2047. If universal mask-wearing reduces R by 20% to 1.6 then, on the 10th infection round, only 110 people would be infected (1.6^10) for a total of 292. That's almost a 90% reduction in infections - a massive benefit.

    Masks are really a no-brainer if everyone does it. A low cost/inconvenience with a massive potential upside.
  • Coronavirus
    Regions move to lockdown because of the potential downside consequences of not doing so. The consequences of not locking down need to be factored in as well.

    It's like a fire is tearing through your neighborhood and someone produces a study saying that leaving your home means your garden won't be watered or the floors vacuumed.
  • Coronavirus
    I just think the unintended consequences could be far greater with the lockdown approach, for instance they are predicting an extra 1.5 million TB deaths due to lockdown (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-lockdown-could-lead-nearly-15-million-extra-tb-deaths/), and famines of “ biblical proportions.NOS4A2

    It isn't the lockdowns that are causing disruptions to treatment programmes and food production, it's the virus. It's not legitimate to just compare how things are affected by a lockdown to an idealized normal time absent the virus.

    To make the point, consider how these programmes and other aspects of normal life would have fared during the 1918 flu epidemic.

    Avoiding lockdowns during a pandemic doesn't imply "business as usual".
  • Coronavirus
    Per the https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries reference that Banno linked and I also discussed here.

    Not a good reference actually.

    First of all, it's far too early to say that. This hasn't ended yet...at all.
    ssu

    See it as "currently winning" as opposed to "have won". The point of the reference is to show that some countries are dramatically bending their curves and gaining control over the virus, even from a large base of cases. That's important information.

    Secondly, when you really look at those countries it seems that what is only thing that has been looked at is the graph without any reference to the actual number. Is it REALLY so that Singapore has done worse than Iran and should take example from the Islamic Republic??? I don't think so, with 3/million deaths compared to 77/million, the obvious Trumpesque response of the mullahs plus totally unreliable stats I wouldn't say that Singapore has done it bad and Iran has made better response. What that site (perhaps unintentionally) paints as the picture is that the pandemic has been beaten. Several of those "covid-19 beating" countries are scaling back their quarantine measures, so that will have implications.ssu

    It's of course good that countries like Singapore have a comparatively low base of cases and deaths. But due to the outbreak there, it has to work to regain control.

    You can set aside Iran - it doesn't change the picture at all. The fact is that there are many countries that have the virus currently under control due to their effective action. As long as they continue to test and maintain strict border controls, they should be able to stay that way.

    The linked page also lists what actions countries should be taking: act quickly (even with many cases, it's not too late), isolate infected individuals, strict travel restrictions, massive testing, face masks, social distancing, and don't reopen too early.

    In my view, all the US states should be doing these things - the virus needs to be properly contained over the coming weeks before normality can return. Here are similar graphs for the US states:

    https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states

    Note that New York, from a large base of cases and a late lockdown, is now in a much better position. It's better late than never. As opposed to most other states, many of which imagine it's fine to be reopening even though the virus is still out of control there.
  • Coronavirus
    Anyway, what is totally lacking is a genuine strategy, a long term plan and a road map how to tackle the pandemic when vaccines are way in the distant future. And that is truly a political decision which simply cannot be just be given to medical officials and epidemiologists to decide as it has quite a lot of moving parts than washing hands and social distancing. This is the problem that all countries are now facing, but unfortunately with the US, this planning is now totally absent with Trump.

    There simply is no coherent strategy now, just states doing their own thing.
    ssu

    That's not fair. Trump has a clear plan.

    Phase 1: Send people back to work
    Phase 2: ???
    Phase 3: Profit!!!
  • Coronavirus
    Guess what? It worked. Just like we kept telling you it would. Early lockdown = less time needed on lockdown = less deaths + less economic disruption + shitloads more options to keep things as they are. Everybody wins.Baden

    :up:

    I think it's useful in this thread to see the stages that various countries are at. The daily case graphs (10-day average) of other countries that have the virus under control (such as Australia, Austria and Norway) can be seen at https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries.

    Harder-hit countries such as Italy, France, Spain and Germany are almost there.

    Based on those countries' experiences, I don't see any reason in principle why the US can't also contain the virus. States just need to apply strong enough measures such that new cases are reduced and can be individually tracked. The stronger the measures, the sooner they will get there and be able to relax those measures (i.e., in weeks, not months).

    Daily confirmed deaths and cases graphs for Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Australia, Austria, Norway and the US below.

    Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, rolling 3-day average
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average?country=ESP+ITA+DEU+FRA+AUS+AUT+NOR+USA

    Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, rolling 3-day average
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average?country=ESP+ITA+FRA+DEU+AUS+AUT+NOR+USA

    Note that based on those graphs, it may look like the US is heading in the right direction overall. But as this article shows, that appearance is mainly due to the decreasing cases in the New York City region. Cases are, on average, increasing for the rest of the US. So the rest of the US needs to keep applying the hammer for now (as NYC has been doing), not relax measures.
  • Coronavirus
    So what's the deal with Sweden? By all accounts, the shit should've hit the fan by now, but that doesn't seem to be happening. In terms of overall infection and death rate, they are doing worse than some (their immediate neighbors), much better than others (Italy, Spain, France, NY), and about as well as Ireland, which has been praised for its active measures to suppress the epidemic, while Sweden has done almost nothing. Its elderly have been hit hard, but that is also happening elsewhere. On the other hand its health system hasn't been overwhelmed.SophistiCat

    My take is that since outbreaks started later in Sweden and other Scandinavian countries than in the rest of Europe and the US, they have had time to learn from those experiences and modify their behavior. So plausibly the Swedes were doing more voluntary social distancing and other measures than they would have otherwise done in the early stages of the outbreak.

    Lockdown would have been more effective still based on a comparison with their Scandinavian neighbors. But, of course, they are only aiming at mitigation, not suppression/eradication.

    It's also interesting that other places of concern such as India, South Africa, and Florida haven't had their health systems collapse (so far, at least). Plausibly again, the knowledge gained from other regions' experiences makes a difference to voluntary behavior early in a region's epidemic (and to lockdown timing as well).

    Also, I don't think Sweden has done as well as Ireland. Ireland has had half the number of deaths over the same period (March 12 - May 2). They have about the same confirmed cases count but that's because Ireland have done more testing than Sweden.

    Confirmed deaths and cases graphs for Sweden, Ireland, Denmark, Finland and Norway below.

    Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths:
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?time=2020-03-12..2020-05-02&country=DNK+FIN+IRL+NOR+SWE

    Total confirmed COVID-19 cases:
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-cases-covid-19?time=2020-01-30..2020-05-02&country=DNK+FIN+IRL+NOR+SWE
  • Coronavirus
    Whether they get to zero or not, what Australia and New Zealand have already accomplished is a remarkable cause for hope. Scott Morrison of Australia, a conservative Christian, and Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s darling of the left, are both succeeding with throwback democracy — in which partisanship recedes, experts lead, and quiet coordination matters more than firing up the base.NYT - Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way

    Three cheers for throwback democracy. The experts said to apply the hammer. The politicians listened.

    Ms. Ardern and Mr. Morrison have already discussed reopening travel between the two countries, and some scientists wonder if eliminating the virus with good management might rebuild some faith not just in democracy, but also in the value of expertise.

    “It does feel like we’re pulling together and pulling in the same direction at the moment,” said Dr. Mackay, the immunologist at the University of Queensland. “I hope we can maintain that.”

    “Maybe we’ll see the return of science,” Dr. Mackay added. “I doubt it, but who knows.”
  • Coronavirus
    In otherwords, this expert does not support your position but has made an ambiguous easily misunderstood statement about a lack of knowledge.boethius

    Spiegelhalter clarifies his statements (as a result of their misunderstanding) on twitter:

    "I fully admit the graph doesn’t tell the story: it just shows that short-term Covid risks are numerically similar to annual risks (on average). So getting Covid might roughly double the risk of dying this year. That’s it. Some would have died anyway, but that’s not the main point"

    https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1248971466357555205?s=20

    https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1248966611400364032?s=20
  • Coronavirus
    My understanding of the social distancing concept is that it is to level out the curve of infections so as to be sure there is adequate healthcare (especially with regard to there being sufficient ventilators) to treat the curable.Hanover

    That's one goal, but not the only one...

    Social distancing obviously will slow the spread of the disease, but I really don't think we can expect it to reduce the overall occurrence given sufficient time unless you're committed to removing the most vulnerable from the population long enough to find a vaccine (a year?).Hanover

    With the suppression (or hammer) strategy, the goal is to get the epidemic under control as quickly as possible. That is, for the number of new cases to be reduced to close to zero and for comprehensive testing and contact tracing to be in place to isolate those cases. Then people can essentially return to life as normal with just some measures retained such as border control checks and limits on large gatherings. See, for example, China and South Korea (albeit tentatively - we'll see how it goes). Australia and New Zealand, among other countries, may soon be there as well.

    Consider an analogy with forest fires. As long as there are proper safeguards and monitoring in place for small local fires, large uncontrolled fires need not break out. Of course if they do break out, then suppression is needed again.
  • Coronavirus
    It's official, the state is deceiving the public to fuel the hysteria. It's a definite conspiracy...now is the time to begin panicking.Merkwurdichliebe

    But that's just what they want! They're a step ahead of you!
  • Coronavirus
    Nowhere else in the US is like that, thus we're all locked down way too early for a storm that probably won't get here for another couple of weeks. But how could we have known?frank

    That's good news. An earlier reaction means less lives will be lost and less damage to the local economy. They have a chance of getting test-and-trace programs in place and perhaps avoiding a storm altogether.

    States with relatively few confirmed cases, unlike hot spots including New York, Louisiana and Michigan, still have an opportunity to avert widespread transmission, Centers for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield said in an interview.U.S. States Prepare Test-and-Trace Programs to Reopen Their Economies
  • Coronavirus
    Lack of evidence is evidence of lack?frank

    It's not.

    So I'm happy to start over. The LA Times' claim that there is a new cluster of cases in Wuhan is unsubstantiated.
  • Coronavirus
    All you needed to do was point out the LA Times' lack of justification, but you didn't do that. Instead, you made an unsubstantiated claim when you said, "It hasn't".frank

    I pointed out the LA Time's lack of justification - I said the author's reference didn't mention Wuhan. And I made my claim after doing a lengthy search and finding no other reports of a new cluster of cases in Wuhan.
  • Coronavirus
    No, I'm not there. I see that the author has made an unsubstantiated claim. Doesn't that bother you?
  • Coronavirus
    Wuhan develops new cluster of cases.[LA Times]frank

    It hasn't. As far as I can tell, the author of that piece just made that up. He links to another LA Times article that doesn't even mention Wuhan.
  • Coronavirus
    Of course it’s true that not going outside will reduce the “paths of transmission”. I would argue that you’re not so much reducing a path of transmission as you are storing it for later, but the point is taken.

    I’ve been following the case of Sweden intently due to its different approach. The chief epidemiologist, Anders Wallensten said people will eventually ignore stay-at-home orders if they are too stringent, so it's better to adopt measures that can be sustained over a long period of time. Another epidemiologist who earlier criticized the UK’s lockdown approach, Anders Tegnell, said that they are only pushing the problem ahead of them, merely kicking the can down the road so to speak. He also said that mass unemployment and a ruined economy brings with it its own public health problems.

    Do you disagree with them?
    NOS4A2

    I disagree with their priorities - they are missing the forest for the trees. If there's a tiger roaming the streets, you get your family inside first. Then you have time to figure out what to do about it.

    In the same way, countries are not prepared for the virus and so suppressing it buys valuable time to get prepared and act more effectively. Time to discover more about the virus, to comprehensively test-and-trace, to build up capacity such as masks, ventilators and medicines, to discover new treatments or cures, to train additional health workers, to educate the public, to address the issues you raise. Time is what China and South Korea now have and every week helps.

    Conversely, there is large potential downside risk to just winging it. An overwhelmed health system, more deaths sooner, virus mutations resulting in re-infections, possible health problems for those that recover from the virus such as lung, heart or brain damage. And mass unemployment, a ruined economy, and public health problems anyway.

    The options are to buy time now and prepare properly, or to fly blind and hope for the best.