Climate change denial There's upper physical limits to how much more energy-efficient you can get in the production and distribution of energy. Sure there is still room for improvement there, but not enough I think for renewables to replace fossil fuels entirely. — ChatteringMonkey
I wasn't suggesting replacing all fossil fuels just being more efficient with them. There isn't any realistic scenario (with known tech) atm that would allow every country to stop using fossil fuels. Food production wastes a lot!
Nuclear power maybe could have gotten us there, but as you said this project should've started decades ago because it takes time. — ChatteringMonkey
Better late than never. If it turns out the estimates made are more in our favour such actions NOW could actually make a big difference.
I used to be more of a techno-optimist, thinking we'll find a way etc... But what I and a lot of people with me didn't and don't really appreciate is how exceptional fossil fuels really were and how much they changed the game. It was literally reserves of stored and compacted solar energy that had been accumulating over millennia, gushing out of the ground... 1 gallon of oil is the energy-equivalent of 5 years of human labor, for a fraction of the price. We were wasteful because we could. — ChatteringMonkey
Well if we don't look to this as a way to deal with it then we may as well roll over and die. No thanks!
There is a lot to be said for taking advantage of fossil fuels. Mistreat a horse and it dies. Mistreat fossil fuels and it doesn't protest.
You often hear it's only a matter of political will to convert fully to renewables etc... but has anyone actually seen a plan something other than these high-level abstract calculations that just gloss of particularities of different sectors and industries like say metallurgy, manufacturing etc... How are we generating enough heat with renewables to make steel to name just one thing? — ChatteringMonkey
I don't think any Western government has the strength to do anything much. China can act instantly due to the political setup whereas Russia appears to be disrupting things as switching to MORE gas is better than using coal - not ideal but 'better'.
I dunno, I think we won't get there in terms of energy production, if not because of strictly theoretical limitations, then because of practical issues with converting to other energy-sources. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but this seems by far the most likely scenario to me, that we will have to reduce our energy-consumption, which ultimately means a lack of economic growth too because those always have gone together. — ChatteringMonkey
My point was more or less that if we only used what we really needed (in terms of strict regulations on industry) then we'd use less and growing countries would then adopt these techniques as they'd effectively save them resources. Such things will buy more time if nothing else. In terms of agriculture it would help a huge amount.
More efficiency would probably not translate into a lack of economic growth. I don't see how it would tbh?
The models are probably pretty accurate in what they do. Problem is that what they do doesn't necessarily tell us a lot about how the real world will evolve. They are basically saying we are just climate scientist, we will bracket/make abstraction of everything other than the physics of climate change... and leave messy and complex things like societal and economic feedbacks to someone else. No way we would have stable societies and growing economies all the way up to some of these projected temperatures. — ChatteringMonkey
No doubt the models are improving. There are blind spots though in our knowledge and model need constant tweaking. The human factor cannot be factored in. There are many other factors that are uncertain too such as the effect of the Gulf Stream.
I believe there is no reason we cannot. It depends on whether you believe we have decent societies today or not. I don't think so in general but things have turned around a lot over the last century or so. We're still very much in a period of social adjustment.
Note: EU and UK is behind on GM foods still. They are only just starting to ease up on the paranoia. Again, better late than never
:)