Coronavirus "Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them..."
Because he has a crystal ball and knows we won't get a vaccine in time? — Baden
It seems like one of the basic ideas of the lockdown program is that it will both flatten the curve, and push severe cases into the not distant future. Pushing some cases into the future allows the always limited health care system to handle the flattened curve now. As the resources of the health care system are expanded, more future cases -- severe and not so bad -- can be managed. There's no guarantee that this will work indefinitely, but it seems to be working in many states. Yes, the number of cases is growing; yes the number of hospitalizations is growing; yes the number of cases in ICU is growing. It's all growing, but it remains manageable within the constraints of always-limited resources. So far.
Lockdown logic didn't work so well in New York City, where there are about 175,000 cases, about 44,000 hospitalized, 14,000 confirmed Covid-19 deaths, and an additional 5,400 deaths presumed to be from Covid-19. (I rounded off the numbers) Moreover, a very high proportion of the cases in the rest of the country appear to have resulted from the New York City ground zero (using genetic similarities in the virus found elsewhere). A few people from Indiana went to New York City and picked up the virus and brought it back to Indianapolis--early on.
NYC instituted its lockdown on March 20--waaaay too late. It isn't that they didn't care. I suspect that the virus was present in NYC--and lots of other places--before March and February. Probably it arrived in January, or maybe even December. While it is highly contagious, we know that few people promptly drop dead from Covid 19--or even get very sick. That feature allows the virus to spread, undetected.
By the time the cases started showing up, the virus had already built up a good sized base of cases.
My personal guess (based on various casting of auspices like analyzing the guts of freshly slaughtered lambs), looking into my crystal balls (I use 105, averaging the results) and utilizing the Cover-19 Tarot deck, is that the virus won't be going away anytime soon, that the people will suffer for quite time from infections and a very bad economic situation, and that Donald Trump will be dumped in November. I want Donald to take many more risks with infection -- whatever he can manage, like licking the White House door knobs, visiting Covid-19 ICU wards and inhaling deeply every time one of the poor folk coughs, and whatever else he can do.