Agreed, but even when we establish an objective we can still have no way to discriminate between strategic options. — VagabondSpectre
Yes, in terms of strategy, two plans can be equal, and a coin flip can be a convenient method to decide.
For instance, if you build a chess program to find and play the best move it can, if there are two moves that seem equal (which is common both at the start of the game due to being unable to calculate every variation, but also at the end of the game it is common that there are several ways to checkmate in the same amount of moves), it takes little thought to just add some random way to make the move.
There's not much philosophical controversy about some options being equivalent.
Some take the existence of such choices, whether in chess or the choice between shirt colours, as indication that all choices resolve to preference, but as soon as we remember that there's always third choices like "jumping out a 10 story window" it's fairly clear that the mere existence of equivalent decisions doesn't somehow imply all choices are equal (if we've decided we need a shirt in our plan, this is already a very constrained set of actions compared to everything we are motor-capable of doing; indeed, our whole framework of talking about "choices" and "decisions" already excludes the vast majority of options that are available but have no coherent description).
This is a tangent to your inquiry, but criticism of preferentialism may be of related interest to you.
If your interest is in resolving what seem like equivalent choices, there is plenty of subject matter. Such as to what extent preferences can justify decisions, on what basis to treat two options as equivalent compared to the potential of further analysis uncovering a difference, as well as just decision making in general.
However, since you state your purpose as comparing, or building up some elements for the purposes of comparison, central planning vs free market then it's required to step back a little.
Free market proponents may not have the same goal, and so talking about efficiency can serve to distract people into a debate framework that has no resolution as no objective has been specified. In particular, free market proponents state that it's each individual following their own interest (after a vaguely defined participation in a common interest to maintain institutions that enforce property rights) is what's best for the people with property (they may say "best for society" but this always reduces to "people with property").
Most importantly, (beyond a vague duty to collectively enforce property rights) free market proponents generally deny that society can have any collective objective, that all objectives are personal. So, in a free market framework, the question of "what best for the island society" is not a recognized question (there is no society, only individuals). So, what matters is the objectives of the individuals; if individuals was to help save family and friends with their property that's their prerogative, and if they want to "get out ahead" either alone or in covert cooperation with the other best abled people and leave everyone else to die, that would be their prerogative too. In both cases, free market proponents would try to argue that the outcome was the most efficient, either people freely providing charity to help others or then the weak and pathetic getting purged and the strong have survived. It's just evolution. Of course, everything that happens is part of evolution, so if our founding principle is some sort of evolutionary social darwanism, then everything in retrospection is effecient because it is the result of an evolutionary process because it happened.
Consider a roulette wheel. Your objective is to walk out of the casino with as much money as possible. Do you bet your only dollar on red/black, or do you bet it on a number? They have the same ratio of risk to return, and you only have enough money for one initial bet. Which option do you choose, and why? — VagabondSpectre
Again, you are missing the third choice available which is to bet the minimum required to fulfill your scenario and then walk out, precisely because the expected returns of all betting strategies for roulette are equivalently bad; therefore, if the objective is to walk out with as much money as possible then simply walking in and walking out with the money you came in with is the best option. The only thing that would change this is if you are in some situation where a negative expected return is the best option for extraneous reasons: for instance gangsters will kill you in half an hour with the money you have or no money, and the best option available is to try to double your money at roulette; in which case flipping a coin for red or black and placing all your money down I think would be recommended by most mathematicians (you'll still have 25 minutes to try and run if you lose).
Well yes, but aren't I allowed to have underlying intentions? :)
The final sentences of my OP's paragraph frame the understanding I sought to impart:
"Adherence to socialist or capitalist principles, like choosing a strategy for the survival of you or your tribe, is a gamble (a wager that following X principle will tend to lead to individual or overall success). The best we can do is suppose the statistical likelihood of risks and outcomes, which is always limited by our ability to detect and compute unknown variables, especially given potentially vast circumstantial differences between individual cases (which we seldom have the time or interest to investigate thoroughly). — VagabondSpectre
Yes, this is exactly the mistake I am trying to elucidate. You are assuming market adherents have the objective of the survival of their tribe or humanity as a whole. Free market adherents do not have this goal. If they are cornered and forced to accept scientific evidence that ecosystems are in trouble largely due to market driven consumption, they will retreat to either an assumption that these problems will be solved by the market by future innovations (that there is zero value in any mitigating strategy, not because proper risk-analysis indicated going "all in" with presuming future innovations will solve all problems but because their real goal is maintaining property rights and investor value, in other words the status quo) or they will say future generations don't matter (we need not care about them, they are outside our interests by definition and it's just weak morals to care) or they will say things like "life will survive" (evolution, see below) with an honest belief that proposing we destroy civilization and most complex life is simply a suitable outcome for our endeavors (though really they will simultaneously believe all three, and consider the adoption of three incompatible justifications for the same position is strength in numbers and good thinking).
Their appeals might be loose, but they're damned frequent, especially in the neo-conservative from the camps (absolutely everything would be privatized if they had their way). — VagabondSpectre
By "loose" I am referring to the inconsistency of those appeals. In their propaganda, there is a large stress on personal autonomy, because all the institutions that are needed for their vision of society already exist: police, law, corporations, land and other property rights, integrated transportation networks.
However, if they really believed in devolution and decentralization, they would be for a principle of maximum autonomy of local and municipal government, and would totally fine if a local government banned fracking or any other activity on or crossing their land, and had also the power to appropriate anyone's land for whatever purpose having maximum sovereignty over their purview. Neoconservatives would of course be horrified by such an argument based on devolution of responsibility, and indeed whenever local government do anything that would harm corporate interests (protect small business, protect their environment, etc.) neo-conservatives are the first to propose state or federal laws that ban such local exercise of autonomy.
Knowing this, when discussing with a more sophisticated interlocutor they try to remold their arguments in terms of balance and optimization between these principles. However, they cannot say who they are optimizing for (as they only believe in personal objectives, no social objectives), so their arguments make no sense, but they sounded "intellectual" and so the real objects of their dissertations (people who are unsophisticated enough in their thinking to vote against their own interests) are left non-the-wiser.
However, discuss enough and you will discover their only consistent principle is private property; every other principle they will cast aside as soon as it conflicts with private property. So, the reasonable conclusion is that their objective is to maintain property rights, and, in the pursuit of this objective, it is a good play to claim this will benefit society as a whole always, and if defeated in any of these claims simply fall back to property rights being a moral issue and not a social objective issue (which, again, they can't formulate to begin with because only individuals have goals and they don't know the goals of all individuals, except that everyone supports property rights or at least enough of them and if they don't then they are morally incorrect and whatever their interests are should be ignored).
I think with most things it's a mixture of bottom up and top decision making that produces the most robust results, but depending on the actual circumstances, we may be better off centralizing or decentralizing different aspects of our collective and individual decision-making. — VagabondSpectre
Yes, we agree on the framework, but what I hope I've drawn your attention to is that differences in objectives have very deep consequences.
Intellectuals, who think about the future of humanity, like to assume everyone shares the objective of our collective survival, this is not the case. For instance, you will often hear better defenses of neo-conservative by intellectuals that aren't neo-conservatives due to this erroneous belief that they must truly believe their policy objectives are good for everyone and that if parts make no sense from this point of view it must be an honest or cultural mistake. However, it's easy to verify that this "good for everyone" objective simply isn't there. For instance, when neo-conservatives pass laws privatizing public land, even if it's proven by an economist that it's simply not a good business deal for society, this doesn't change their position in anyway and they will try to avoid any such calculation of what the land is worth to society being made in the first place.
Of course this doesn't cover all libertarians; some like the label, don't see a problem with homosexuals or Hispanics and like weed but don't like pointless wars or taxes and want to support the conservative for this tax reason while being able avoid any questions about de facto supporting all the other conservative positions (and so an ideology that has recast taxes as the devil fulfills this roll of being able to ignore all other implications of voting conservative but still "feeling intellectual" and principled about it).
Libertarians that are intellectually curious and concerned about humanity, in my experience, are generally young men persuaded by "useful idiots" that appear on television and seem intellectually respected (as their television appearances are designed to give this affect), and if they stay libertarian it's for tribal group reasons, but they must make so many exceptions to the TV neo-conservative starting point to deal with all the issues (public institutions cannot be maintained by a system of private greed, people voting for their interests which may conflict with elite property interests, there's no reason to allow costs to be externalized, things like child education and firemen do have a public utility and there's no fundamental reason not to expand such public institutions, market failures, corruption etc.) that making all these exceptions really produces a different theory (social democracy of Scandinavia) but they still don't want "that many taxes" so they stick with libertarianism as at least a slowing force to obvious truths.
And, there are some libertarians trying to be truly intellectually consistent with no exceptions, and they end up in places like "anarcho-capitalism" and "seasteading" and view the state (that cannot exist without taxes) as the devil's master; but, I'm not too interested to debate them as they are politically irrelevant and have no theory of government at all (but it's an easy task when the ocassion arises).