As far as I've read, they matched Russia's nuclear threat level. But cancelling drills is definitely smart, something Trump or a Republican would likely not do, given how insane the Republicans are.

What I am questioning is the extent of the sanctions. I understand there needs to be a response to aggression, but kicking Russia off all sports and getting most of the banking system of SWIFT - minus energy - is a gamble, I think.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/ukraine-on-edge-as-russia-continues-its-assault-liveblog

US postpones ballistic missile test to avoid escalation: Pentagon

“In an effort to demonstrate that we have no intention in engaging in any actions that can be misunderstood or misconstrued, the decretary of defense has directed that our Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile test launch scheduled for this week to be postponed,” Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.

“We did not take this decision lightly, but instead to demonstrate that we are a responsible nuclear power.”

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Unsure if this is a PR move or not, but it's smart. It shows some glimmer of non-aggression. Not clear if these sanctions are going to end up helping or not.

It's going to be interesting to see what China ends up doing, or if stays as is.

Of course. But then the question would be whether he ought to be allowed to have his way in Ukraine to avoid nuclear war, which would be the end for everyone. I'm not saying he ought to be allowed to have his way, but this seems to be the dilemma.

If all that would be required is a guarantee that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, would that be too great a price to pay to avoid nuclear war? — Janus

Herein lies the dilemma. Some sanctions seem to justified, but having FIFA kick out Russia out of the football team is extremely ugly. There has to be a modicum of reason, you shouldn't punish everything Russia related, it will only add fuel to the fire.

Of course, if the West lets Putin take Ukraine, then it sets a nasty precedent. On the other hand, the end of the world is very, very much a worse option.

It's a delicate balance, but, I'd take it easier with the sanctions by now. If everybody plays the "strong man" politician card, we're fucked.

Should have said, thanks for sharing. Very interesting hearing non-Western perspectives, gives a more accurate picture of the situation.

Of course not. The problem is not giving room for diplomacy as these sanctions begin to cripple Russia.

It's now an issue of how quickly things play out.

I'm not so confident this nuclear threat is a bluff. It better be, but, things look complex no matter what source you look at.

Historical context can help people understand the why, but that in itself is not a justification.

The issue is if the weapons arrive in time before Ukraine is destroyed completely. Arming civilians sounds nice and brave but it sets them up to be massacred.



I've heard about this too and it's highly probable. And troops lost is part of the story, the other part are the sanctions, which are brutal.

They have to measure severity of sanctions vs. putting Russia in a position in which it sees it has no escape other than a massive escalation of this war.

Agreed.

I hope cool heads prevail.

This week might prove crucial, depending on how much more resistance Ukraine has left.

I know it's totally beyond my control - 100%. I don't think I ever been as scared for the world as now.

Maybe I'm being paranoid. But, this is really, really bad.

At this point in the situation yes, the stakes are too high.

When we are facing a situation as horrifying as this, we should try to think for a way out of this mess.

Obviously this means diplomacy. IF that works, then we can argue about history and who is or is not a maniac or who is evil or whatever.

Sure, listen I'm not going to dispute that. I don't know the history in anywhere near the level of detail as you (and others) do.

What I can say, is that the situation now is so tense and difficult, that, for the rest of the world, these facts don't matter. For some Russians, sure, though not all - as seen by the protestors in Moscow.

We are at the brink of something akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis, and while I maintain that this could have easily been avoided if NATO had not been expanding since the collapse of the Soviet Union, from this point on, it's about trying to see if there's any way out of this conflict that could serve in a way to save face for most involved.

Tomorrow Russia's economy will scream. I did not expect such a strong reaction from the West, and probably nor did other Russian elites, Putin included.

The way it looks to someone from the outside is, this one country is willing to bring the whole world down for some piece of land few people care about? And you just won't get enough people caring about the history, even if it helps elucidate why this is happening.

Why should someone in, say, Latin America or India care about this history?

So, I see your angle, but, by at this stage, too much is at stake.

Yeah...

Someone needs to step on the breaks.

Ha.

Maybe I am being paranoid or alarmist or whatever.

But I think this ought to be taken extremely seriously. I can understand why most people believe that these weapons just won't be used, it would be way too costly.

But I'm not as confident.

Now Putin's put nuclear forces on "high alert".

Wtf. This is madness, total lunacy.

Yes, something like that. Obviously many sectors of the Russian elites aren't happy now, but they might be getting some kind of benefits.

No combination of lesser things can create a greater thing without something greater than the greater thing added to the lesser things. — Joe Mello

I haven't read the thread, so if something here is repeated, apologies. Let me take a stab at it.

When speaking of things like "lesser", do you have in mind something like "less complex"? Otherwise I'm left with "inferior", and I don't think it's quite right for us to say that something in the world is superior to another inherently. We add that additional value ourselves, but not the world - the world doesn't care.

Essentially when we get a new phenomena in nature, say, experience or water or something that is quite rare, we must assume that in the stuff out of which experience and water is made of, there is the potential for these more sophisticated developments already found in the "lesser thing".

So it's not so much that something "greater" is added, its that a specific combination ignited, so to speak, what was already there unrealized, as it were.

Damn. Russia might get kicked out of the SWIFT system after all. And with these weapon sales, the stakes have gone up quite a bit.

This could get much uglier. It's the damn accidents that have me on edge and well, I can only image you being next door, being a bit nervous too.

I mean, for sure Ukraine has a right to defense, no doubt. But I don't know if Putin judged the West would go this far.

I suspect China could make some kind of play here. Unlikely, but, they could have a big impact, if they become more active in this domain.

I dunno, it's a little nerve-wracking.

China would be the only "enemy" had that happened, because who else would be left? So you're right about that.

Things were fine with Russia up until the Crimea incident, that's when all the Russia scare started again. I remember Obama mocking Romney back in 2012 about being "stuck in the cold war". In short time, we're back into one, of sorts. But China and Russia would need further integration to consider themselves an alliance, and that would give Russia the position of a junior partner.

I don't know enough about the internal dynamics in Russia to judge on the economy front, this action seems to indicate that they're willing to lose quite a bit. I imagine that a portion of the oligarchs do want the war for some profit motives, so perhaps there is a split in elite opinion.

But I'm speculating here.

There has to be a tension inside Russia between the oligarchs and the politicians behind this war, which can't be Putin alone, other top ranking officials very likely agreed to this in discussion.

We avoided the Cuban crisis by a razor this margins, I have in mind accidents, unforeseen events, more than deliberate choices.



Indeed. I'd guess that it's likely a side-effect of the parliamentary systems we have. Politicians rarely have to think beyond four years, often less.

If they had literal, legally binding obligations for long term goals and aspirations, many of the problems we now face quite severely, could've been mitigated substantially.

Also, if Russia joined NATO, they'd have to deal with a voice that would occasionally dissent from certain actions, so that could complicate certain military operations.



Yeah. I've had this in the back of my mind. I'm no fan of Biden, but if a Republican were in office, heaven forbid the situation now. Better not even consider what would be the case.

To the extent that that's even possible at all, it has its own logic. Now he's going to have to rely on China even more - we have to see how much longer he'll remain in power.

He did ask to join NATO to Clinton back in 2000, but was rejected. That likely didn't help either. Then again, these military alliances should be made on a state by state basis, and not as a monolith, it can be restrictive in certain situations. Europe pays little for NATO protection.

It's nice to have an army when it comes (relatively) cheap.

In any case France has a deterrent if it sees itself in a bleak situation.

On the other hand this Russia isn't the USSR. Russia is punching above its weight class, and this may well have severe consequences for the Russian people, not even mentioning Ukraine right now.

For me, the main issue here, lurking in the background, are the damn nukes. Obviously that would be a super last resort, but it's what complicates everything so much more.

Thanks for the clarification on the aims.

Well, if this is correct, which there seems little reason to doubt, if Kiev continues to resist as they have, we could sadly expect for Kiev to be heavily bombarded in short order.

Hopefully not.

Yes. Similar to Erdogan it seems and perhaps Duterte. Very much a "family values" type.

If they nuke Ukraine, they are killing (at least some of) the people they are saying they want to incorporate into Russia.

But if they do this, it's game over for Russia as a country. That's not happening.

Yeah, military often boils down to brute force.

Thanks.

The money for aid was to be expected.

Leftist take on the issue:

The Putin Regime Is Straining Under Its Own Contradictions

https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/russia-navalny-billionaires-west-democracy-repression

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/25/unsc-to-vote-on-resolution-condemning-russia-invasion-liveblog

US official claims Russian forces frustrated by ‘viable’ Ukrainian resistance

Russian forces are becoming increasingly frustrated by what the United States believes is “viable” Ukrainian resistance, a US defence official has said.

“We know that they have not made the progress that they have wanted to make, particularly in the north. They have been frustrated by what they have seen is a very determined resistance,” the official claimed, without providing evidence. “It has slowed them down.”

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One wonders if this kind of issue could cause the Russian army to become more aggressive. There's still no clear goal set for this war, that I've heard. Some say that they want to overthrow Ukraine's president.

Maybe.

I've thought that the goal here would be to divide Ukraine up, somewhat akin to Yugoslavia, with less nationalities.

This is where fire could meet gasoline.

I understand the move, and makes some strategic sense. But still, scary.

But is this a kind of assault on a sovereign country in terms of diplomacy?



Nuclear war is the biggest factor hear, or the threat of it. Yes, it is quite horrible, many unnecessary suffering and death. Another one to the long lost of current atrocities, but in Europe - again.



Yes, I've heard this, but I'm unaware if when Tooze wrote this, he knew that Putin had been sanctioned too. Though I guess it won't hit him where it hurts too much. That energy need to keep coming in after all...

How relevant are these? Is this more serious than was previously expected (the sanctions), or is it more or less "normal"?

The US imposed sanctions on Putin.

Don't know how much it matters.

China’s Xi speaks to Putin; calls for ‘negotiation’ with Ukraine

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/25/chinas-xi-speaks-to-putin-calls-for-negotiation-with-ukraine

Xi said on the call with Putin that it is important to “abandon the Cold War mentality, attach importance to and respect the reasonable security concerns of all countries, and form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiations”.....

... While most nations in Asia rallied to support Ukraine, China has continued to denounce sanctions against Russia and blamed the United States and its allies for provoking Moscow.

Beijing, worried about US power in Asia, has increasingly aligned its foreign policy with Russia to challenge the West.

“China feels very strongly that the United States is trying to encircle and contain it. Russia feels the same way. The combined pressure on both of them has pushed them together,” Einar Tangen, an analyst at the Taihe Institute, told Al Jazeera.

It's not that straightforward in my eyes. In theory and principle yes, having powers keeping others in check will limit certain actions one state may have taken otherwise.

On the other hand, if this becomes a pissing contest, then the likelihood of a global disaster increases quite a lot.

On a tangent, I don't think Russia's actions here will change the situation in Taiwan for example. And that one is very fragile too.

We'll have to see how this plays out with Russia in the mid-to-long term, when it comes to sanction duration, other consequences, etc. It's not clear what will happen yet.

This is extremely important and brave, given the consequences involved.

Perhaps this may limit the scope and duration of this war. After all, massive sanctions only hurt the general population, not the oligarchs.

This decision seems to be backfiring.

I think there are limits to analyzing all wars in terms of profits alone. Undoubtedly it is a, huge, massive factor, but not always decisive. When it comes to state power and ideology, if certain lines are breached, not even profit will enter into war calculations.

Case in point Cuba and Iran. There are massive profits to be made in both places (particularly in Iran), but no matter how much business may want these countries open, they defied US orders, so they're still sanctioned to this day.

It's not too common, but it happens. Something like this may also arise with Russia in relation to Ukraine. But there's the border issue to take into account as well.

But again, profits will be made regardless of whether a country is invaded or not, it's just that different industries make the money.



This is true, though it is still a major crime, with very serious consequences.

And again, this was predicted to happen ever since the USSR fell, as you know.

That mentality is childish in the extreme.

As of now, there's no easy solution. Perhaps up to a month ago, it could have been done peacefully. But going all patriotic or painting black and white pictures is Disneyfication and dangerous.

It's a mess.

NATO cannot get involved here, they can't. This is not about them not being dependable, it's that if they did, I don't see how a nuclear war could be avoided.

This could have been prevented by listening to Russia previously and not expanding NATO, instead they betrayed what they said, and this happened, as predicted by Jack Matlock and others.

From this point on, though, it is Putin's war and it's in his hands to stop it quickly. Internal reaction in Russia could help, but expanding this is extremely risky, not to mention criminal.

There is no genocide, that's a fabrication.

He may want to split Ukraine into separate countries. This could have been avoided, but now Putin is going pretty nuts, and others must listen.

Not the way to go, it's a horror.

It's good to see people inside Russia oppose this - and makes sense too.

Nevertheless, what is the actual end-goal here? To fracture Ukraine or what?

This may go on for quite some time.

What a mess. This is lunacy...

Sure. If you keep an eye open, you can find some good articles at times though.