Thanks for the very interesting response.
1. I understand your 'balkanise the globe' projection but I don't agree with your bracketed ('even when AGI comes on-line.') I think AI progress, will help us very significantly, with climate change and I am also boosted by two others 'impressions,' I have. Global youth seems more aware of the threats that our historical and current stewardship of the Earth has caused, and seem more determined (compared to earlier generations) to organise themselves, to reverse those effects. Even many members of the traditionally nefarious rich and powerful, are beginning to realise that they cannot feed as well, from a dead or even balkanised global population. I do also accept that there is nonetheless, a dangerous global apathy and substantial 'fake news force,' to contend with.
I agree with your 'post-scarcity' epoch and hope it ends global hunger and vastly improves peoples lives BUT, it will then result in an increased need for better population control (at least on Earth).
2. Yes, I think 'stepping stone' space habitats, stations etc will become very necessary, before eventual extraplanetary 'large,' probably initially domed settlements, until 'terraforming' can make any kind of impact.
3.
:up:
4.
Assuming that "the human identity" is a manifestation of the human condition. Thus, I imagine as technosciences, extraterresrial habitation & AGI —> ASI accelerate the disappearance of the current human condition, "human identity" also will disappear — 180 Proof
I think the human 'first stage (fully natural, organic) life' will change yes, but not in a way that humans alive today would not recognise. I think we will fight hard to make our first, up to around 200 years of existence to be much as it is today. I think the current experiences we have that forms 'who we are' and 'who we might become,' are very much revered by a great number of us.
"human identity" also will disappear. (Re: posthumanity (e.g. body-mods & brain-augments for living in space; AI-mediated-hiveminds; orga-mecha mergers, etc) — 180 Proof
From your link:
Today, we examine the possibility that the reason for the Great Silence is that all the aliens have evolved beyond the need to explore!
Your suggestion that any 'changes' in 'humanity,' especially what I would consider human stage 2 life need not become a disappearance of 'human identity' but an 'updating' of it. I know you think I am arguing semantics here but I think it's a valid semantic debate.
The Universe today article you cited was a fun read and it's main proposals were dramatised
somewhat in the guise of 'the first ones' in Babylon 5:
But remember the first ones, all went to explore beyond the rim and became 'intergalactic.' The universe is so much bigger and unknown that any AGI or ASI will be able to 'comprehend,' in my 'humble' but still very very very atheist opinion. I don't find the posit of 'beyond the need to explore,' very likely.
5. I like that prediction, I hope it happens that way, I certainly would not advocate for any discovered microbial sized or any sized, biological structures being destroyed to make way for any colony from Earth.
6. Well, there are comments like this, from such as the physics stack exchange:
Gamma rays can be stopped by the few inches of lead shielding nuclear reactors, the Trillions of yotta grams that make up the sun will be absolutely fine for the job.
You also don't need to worry about venus losing it's atmosphere, the worry with a GRB is that it destroys the ozone layer not that it flat out strips away our atmosphere.
The shortest GRB's can be two seconds long so earth could definitely be behind the sun for the entire duration of one.
All I am suggesting is that there seems to have always been many existential threats to the Earth and its 'life' based contents. Despite these, life on Earth endures. The threats you cite are very real and very valid. We will have to pay attention and make very serious, united, global efforts in the future to protect our future selves and our home planet. I think that we are left with nothing stronger at the moment than our individual hope that we will survive, in some form or another. I know that in some posts you have suggested that you are not a big fan of the notion of human 'hopes.'