Yes, it is only the way the Tory's have handled Brexit following the referendum which I am highly critical of. The decision itself I am reconciled with, while continuing to see it as a mistake for the reasons I have laid out in this thread.

The problem, as I have highlighted, now is the wreckless behaviour of the government which will destroy the goodwill between the UK and Europe and looks like it will destroy the UK Union as well.

This destructive aspect is not at all necessary and will damage the country. They are like demented children, mad Conquistadors.

Now that they have been thrust into the midst of a global pandemic in which the solution means destroying your own economy they find themselves in their ultimate nightmare. They are having to follow a course directly oppsing that which they were intending. They are now more socialist than Corbyn, because there is no alternative, while just a few weeks ago they condemned that kind of socialism as dementedly destructive.

Their heads are spinning and in the media today, the media is beginning to turn on Johnson and his government. Especially the rightwing tabloid press who supported him to get into power and secure Brexit.

I was asking about those who do catch Covid, I even put it in bold.

So it looks like you're saying that not many in group 1 die in 2020 because only a small amount of them will become infected?
Unfortunately we don't know how many will become infected by 31st of December.
Also that just as many by percentage of fit and healthy people get it to( perhaps the size of the group 1 by percentage is important here).

Regarding group 2 your wall of text suggests to me that you disagree with my 60% of those infected? Where would you estimate the figure? Or do you think it can't be estimated for the reasons you give?

I was not trying to make a point, I was trying to work out what Boethius's point is.

For me the confusion seems to be in dividing group 1 from group 2. So I phrased it in terms of those who are, or are not destined (absent the Covid epidemic) to die during 2020. Thus confining members of each group to their group, eliminating overlap between the groups.

So when we include Covid the size of each group is unchanged with no overlap. But in this case a percentage of group 2 does die in 2020, solely due to contracting Covid.

The idea being to tease out what Boethius is trying to say.

There are a large number of factors resulting in deaths in this pandemic, so I want to focus on this point you are making about the overlap.

So you are happy with there being a group (1), which is a small group, who are destined to die in 2020 due to another medical condition, comorbidity. With an overlap of 95% or more, who have contracted Covid, dying due to Covid.

You are happy with a group (2), who have an underlying medical condition, comorbidity, but who are not destined to die in 2020, they may die in 1, 2, or 10 years of these conditions. That this is a large group, and that a large proportion of these patients will die in 2020 if they contract Covid. I estimated that 60% of these who contract Covid will die.

You are happy with another group (3) who are destined to die in 2020, but who don't present as very ill when they contract Covid. I accept for now that the overlap here may be smaller say 1-5% who contract Covid will die.

It's important that we don't complicate this with discussing the percentage of the population who has currently been exposed to the virus, because this figure is changing throughout the year and the degree of this change is determined by many factors other than morbidity.


So you are proposing that (1) is very small, so insignificant. That (2) is very large, and presumably (3) is small. Meaning that the majority of the comorbidity deaths are in group 2 amongst people who may have an underlying health condition which is not going to kill them for many years in most cases, but who have a high mortality if they contract Covid.

So your main point is to highlight the large number of deaths in group 2. So how do you conclude that the overall comorbidity overlap is small? ( is (2) a small percentage of the population?).

I've heard from 1/3 to 1/2 exposed show no symptoms. And then others, yes sometimes young with no medical history, come close to death. It's strange.

From what I remember from the article I heard, some people might have a genetic predisposition which causes cells to repell, or become slippy to Covid.

Also I expect (although this is speculation) that some people have a genetic predisposition which makes their immune system somehow vulnerable to, or deadly for Covid.

if we look at a group in the population who are ill with one of the comorbidity diseases who would be destined to die in 2020. Some of those will die prematurely due to a Covid infection. I would find it hard to believe that many of these patients would survive Covid, only to die later in the year, so the overlap will be large, say around 95% ( of those who become infected with Covid)

There is a second group who are ill with the same illnesses, but who are not destined to die in 2020. A proportion of thes patients will die in 2020 after contracting Covid. I would expect the overlap here to remain high, but not as high, say 60%.(of those infected with Covid)

There is a third group who were destined to die of a disease in 2020, but who presented as quite well, but who will die unexpectedly in 2020. Of this group there may, or may not be an overlap, if there is I expect it is quite low, say 10, or 20%.( of those infected with Covid)

Presumably it requires statistical analysis to arrive at an overall overlap across the three groups. I expect we don't have sufficient data to come to anything near accurate.

Some people become infected or colonized by this coronavirus and have no symptoms. Some become ill enough to die. I think there is a hidden factor involved.

Yes, there are some geneticists looking into a genetic disposition. It makes sense to me, but I'm no expert.

I saw the protests against lockdown in the US and Trump announcing premature opening up of lockdowns. Looks like it's going to get fruity over there.

I have to agree with you to a degree here. There is a significant difference between the two kinds of economic failure though. The Covid failure is essentially a state of economic stasis, life support. Whereas the Brexit failure is systemic, with a large proportion of the UK's economic interaction having to be restructured. In ways which are very uncertain and to a large degree dependent on a set of incompetent, protracted and I predict increasingly hostile, negotiations.

For example there are many goods crossing the Channel both ways which will or will not be viable depending on the future tarif and regulatory frameworks. Details which are treated with contempt and indifference on the UK side and of importance on the EU side. So what happens to the UK fishermen, or sheep farmers during this tussle? Or service providers?

The very fact that the UK administration is cavalier in its behaviour is destructive of both politics and livelihoods in a deeply irresponsible way. Not to mention the Union, the United Kingdom.

It never ceases to amaze me the lengths people will go to to maintain their chosen narrative.

I should never have started trying to have a reasonable discussion again.

Please do stick around to discuss this, your contributions are valued. I think you unfortunately chose to dig a little deeper with the wrong interlocutor. Boethius is quite argumentative, he seems to enjoy it. But this might result in a failure to reach consensus.

There are others following this crisis who will be more agreeable.

I apologise for not following your comments, I have limited time for this at the moment. I think you will find that the various folk following the thread have their own position, or take on this crisis, which they have presented, the rest of us can then take what we want from it. I am not sure what your position is?

Mine is that the health consequences are not the primary concern, that we won't have accurate statistical analysis at this point, but there is a substantial overlap, along with a significant number of healthy younger fatalities and a worrying mortality among vulnerable groups. Those who are immunosuppresed for medical reasons, for example, they are a significant constituency. But more importantly there is the economic, political and social consequences, these are the areas of interest for many. Because the consequences may, or may not be profound.

Anyone else actually get the 'rona?

Do you have it? I hope your symptoms are not to bad.

Yes, mission creep. It can take you from agreeing to Brexit on the understanding that it will be economically beneficial and returns the sovereignty lost to the EU. To being ok with an economic recession, a falling out with the EU and only having basic World Trade Organisation trade arrangements with any country in the world and having no better access to Europe than a third country.

It missed out the most important guideline, you mustn't smile, especially outside, although you can laugh in your own home. Lol

You are not allowed to be happy at anytime, only miserable and worried.

Fox is reporting that it was a research project that escaped from a Wuhan lab...

A new Cold War, and the're commies to boot.

How pathetic.

Professor Anthony Costello, former director of the Institute for Global Health, has said today that the UK is on course to have the highest death toll in Europe, in excess of 40,000 in the initial peak. Due to an only partial lockdown, which was implemented to late.

Even now, as pointed out by Evett Cooper in parliamentary select Committee today, that there are even now many thousands of people flying into the UK from all over the world without any checks, tests, or even requests for self isolation.

Now Sweden's death rate is spiking.

From the perspective of the hard Brexiters it is a political master stroke. But they were never in the majority, they relied on a large group of soft Brexiters who were not ideologically motivated, but they thought that leaving was beneficial in terms of immigration, or sovereignty. These people did not sign up to a no trade deal Brexit with the collateral damage it would result in.

Also and the reason I say the proverbial will hit the fan, it will cause a split at the heart of the Conservative party, putting at risk the majority in Parliament.

So present those moderate Brexiters with a no trade deal, an up yours EU strategy with the irresponsibility of continuing on this course during an existential pandemic. I seriously doubt the government could maintain its support.

Remember that the government majority was built on a fear of socialism, rather than a wholehearted support for Brexit. That that threat is now reduced and the government is now inadvertently implementing those very policies, in essence and we are not going to hell in a hand cart, the threat of socialism has lost traction.

I suspect that Johnson will present a moderate tone when he returns to work. His place in history is in serious peril at the moment, he won't want to keep digging.

David Frost the chief UK negotiator has responded to requests to extend the implementation period, which must be requested at the end of June, has said there is no way an extension will be requested and has been legislated for on that timescale. So basically the government is saying the UK will leave the EU agreed trade deal, or no trade deal on 31st December 2020.

Considering the pandemic and subsequent economic depression with no certainty on how it will develop, this is highly irresponsible and will cause an almighty row once it gets into the media.

Now we see the rightwing fundamentalists in No10 in their true light and the people who voted for these snake oil salesmen are going to regret it.

I can't wait for the proverbial to hit the fan.

I'm near Diss, West Anglia isn't talked about, it's called the fens in these parts, I couldn't live there.

Sorry to hear how the authorities treat you in Moscow. Aren't you allowed to go out to exercise? Don't worry about the mess, my house would be messy if my wife didn't make me remind me to tidy up and do the housework regularly.

Good to hear, I live 20 miles south west of Norfolk England. We bought a house where you can buy property with land at a reasonable price, we are surrounded by farmland. But the peace and quiet is worth it. There are a few redneck farms around, I get on ok with them though, a small price to pay.

He meant the cleaning station is the super spreader, not you. This is evidenced by his use of the word "cool", if he were accusing you of that he would not be cool about it.

I like your lamp, I hope you don't get cabin fever in there and get out regularly.

This is where I self isolate,


Perhaps if folk post an image of where they isolate, it would be interesting to see how our experiences differ?

All I can do is to stay home and limit interaction with people outside my household. When I do go out, I wear a mask, gloves and do the best I can to prevent the spread. Washing hands etc on my return. Also urge people I know to do the same.

I have asked some vulnerable people to tell me if there is anything I can do to help, but so far they have all been coping ok.

If we hadn't had the lockdown this situation would have been much worse.

I agree with you thoughts on how things should change politically, but I don't think it will change yet, but rather a slower realisation which will take a generation (about 25 years). Because there are to many people who have benefited from the affluence of the last 40 years still in positions of control, or holding onto the wealth. The young are not in this position and are ready for change, as they begin to take hold of the reigns as the older generations die off, things will change.

It’s the other way about. It appears Trump has become the scapegoat once again, as has been the case from everything to climate change to mistrust of the media.

What are they escaping? This is twisted paranoia. Trump brings it on himself by his inane tweeting and bullshiting press conferences.

So which actions exactly should he be responsible for?

Well there are a few, like threatening the stability of NATO, pulling out of the Paris accord on climate change, withholding funds to the WHO during a pandemic, a lack of credible leadership.

But in reality he doesn't need to do all this blaming, it's a weakness in his vanity, he fears being held accountable, so it's not in reference to anything in particular when he does it. He just doesn't have the attributes of a good President.

Secondly, I think it’s time critics should say what they would have done differently. What would you have done differently?

I would have taken the threat of Covid19 seriously from the beginning of January. Indeed I did, but I am not in a position of power, so there was little I could do. Trumps bans of flights was a good move, but it was to little to late. The whole global airline industry should have been closed down at the beginning of January to contain the virus, all the Western powers where guilty of this one.

This seems to speak volumes about your ideology. Saving Trump's face is worth more than human lives?

Yes, this is what I was pointing out too. NOS will even dance on the graves of these lives rather than save his credibility on the forum, to save face.

But the faces are becoming more and more contorted, sooner or later they will disappear in a puff of smoke.

So we'll withdraw funding during a pandemic, which will surely lead to many more deaths in vulnerable populations? (such a stable genius).

Admit that this is Trump trying to pass blame to anyone he can, rather than take responsibility for his actions.

It can only be a vanity project, by an egomaniac, anyone else would realise that everyone objective will see through it. This is his death nail, he can only be grasping at any semblance at credibility as he falls from grace, to reduce the fallout.

Those hard Brexiters in government must be sh****g themselves, now they are having to deal with something serious, just when they were revelling in getting Brexit done. It's all a world of sh*t now and they are going to have to pull us through.

@Punshhh
At this stage of the pandemic, it is not a simple choice between lives and livelihoods. There is the chaos resulting from what would happen with out lockdown measures. It would not only be a medical crisis and an economic one, but a food and disobedience crisis as well. This was already pointed out at the beginning of the thread, but ought to be considered here.

@NOS4A2

That’s a good point. The line-ups outside the barbershop alone will cause chaos.

Good to see that you are prepared to debate the crisis with the seriousness it deserves. Just like Trump who showered himself with glory lastnight, by withholding funds to the WHO the only international authority trying to help countries around the world save lives. But vanity comes before lives of course.

As countries open up I suspect the lives vs. livelihoods approach will loosen—governments cannot task itself with saving lives forever—and a better balance will be sought.

At this stage of the pandemic, it is not a simple choice between lives and livelihoods. There is the chaos resulting from what would happen without lockdown measures. It would not only be a medical crisis and an economic one, but a food and civil disobedience crisis as well. This was already pointed out at the beginning of the thread, but ought to be considered here.

I don’t agree. The world can act together. The quicker the developed countries get sorted out the sooner they can ship supplies and equipment to help out.

I hope you're right, although even if it does go the way you lay out. It will be to late. The help is needed now and the West is nowhere near coming out the other side of the first peak yet. The help wouldn't start to be sent out for a few months at the earliest and there are to many countries crying out for help now. Just imagine if that Ebola outbreak had been in multiple countries at the same time, it would have been a struggle to get it under control even with our own countries not infected.

There are already news reports appearing about violence and riots around food distribution in undeveloped countries. Countries where many millions of people are at risk of starvation imminently.

Going back to your thoughts, I have sympathy with your sentiment, but as I said before I don't think the developed countries would come to the assistance of these undeveloped countries now due to their own existential crises, even if they had somehow averted the worst effects of the lockdowns and managed to maintain some semblance of normality in their economies. The international community responded in a remarkable way to the last Ebola outbreak. But this was only possible in a normal world, disrupt that and such a response is quickly lost. This crisis is global and catastrophic to our way of life globally, we are struggling to offer assistance to ourselves, let alone anyone else.

Trump showered himself in glory lastnight.

Max Richter, The Consolations of Philosophy

Nice track.

I just wanted to say that I offer you my philosophical and moral support for the work you are doing in this time of existential uncertainty. I think many are thinking of the difficulties being faced now by health workers and how they are now in the front line of a struggle for our world, our way of life. A life which many of us were questioning, before this happened, but which I expect they would take back in a heartbeat, in the newly dawning knowledge of our vulnerabilities. But to then do things differently.

Is this our wake up call?

Drinking at work, working at home, what's the difference?

I think the point is he's working from home.

Doing a collection now for @Hanover's paper bag. Might help his love life. Please give generously.

A bottle of bourbon would be a good start.

A copy of How to win friends and influence people, might be useful.

Hang on in there, the economy should bounce back once the virus is under control.

"Although I suspect that Johnson has had a Damascene conversion following his own infection."
— Punshhh

Any reason for your uncharacteristic optimism?

If you listen to Johnson's speeches after he returned from hospital he sounds different, there could be a decent fellow inside, which has come to the surface while he stared death in the face. He accepts that his life was in the hands of some immigrant nurses and he has seen the good work the NHS does from the inside. I might be wrong, let's see what he does when he returns to the fray. He really should kick out Raab and Patel, who are actively hostile to the NHS ( and a lot else besides). If he goes back to business as usual, he really will cement his reputation for being a hypocrite.

I didn't see the figures you're referencing, but the figure of the number of people infected is not accurate because it is a function of the number of tests being carried out and the policy is that if you have symptoms to stay at home and only contact the health service if you begin to have difficulty breathing while at rest. The assumption is that there are large numbers infected, with no attempt to test them.

That's odd. If they aren't reporting nursing facility COVID-19 deaths, then why is the UK's death total so high? There was this.

Did the UK just decide not to ramp up to meet the demand? That would explain the death total, but, I mean, that would be crazy.

They are only reporting deaths in hospital of patients tested positive for Covid19. There are more accurate figures published by the ONS every two weeks, we will get the updated figures tomorrow. It is generally accepted that the actual death rate is about twice the reported figure.

The UK has ramped up for the surge, they have around 6,000 extra beds available in temporary hospitals set up in exhibition halls. Although they are way short of ventilators.

Also If you've been reading my posts and Unenlightened's comments, you would know that in the UK, there is an unspoken policy of letting Covid19 run through the care homes unhindered, relieving the government of a social care crisis in the future. It's all part of their herd immunity policy.

Although I suspect that Johnson has had a Damascene conversion following his own infection.