• Brexit
    Yet another nail-biter/deadline/crucial vote/point of no return. They just keep coming.

    Yes, there are likely to be some interesting amendments from the opposition too.

    Interestingly it has emerged that the Letwin amendment on Saturday prevented a circumstance in which if the government had won the meaningful vote, they would have been able to retract the request for an extension from the EU and we would have been heading for a no deal again. So that was the cunning Cummings plan. It would have forced a no confidence vote this week and a divisive election.
  • Brexit
    Anyway, what is the ERG logic for not wanting a trade deal with the EU? I can't see any advantages..

    I will have to take your word for it about a no trade deal, as I have no information on that. I have heard both a full no deal and only a no trade deal on the media, so I don't know about that.

    The ERG logic for a no deal is simple, they simply want to leave the EU in the cleanest way possible. What happens next following a no deal exit is irrelevant, really. Although they each have their vision, or unicorn that they hope for.

    Are you aware of the position that the goal is to leave, fully properly, a clean break. For the people who hold that position that is all that matters, they couldn't believe their luck when the referendum result went that way and now they are desperate to hold onto it and want to secure the no deal for the benefit of all of us, even if to achieve it they have to lie, cheat, break the law. We'll thank them for doing it later, when we arrive in "the sunlit uplands". Perhaps they think that we are deluded or something for wanting to remain linked to the controlling EU, or fill in any anti EU rhetoric coming from the Brexit party.
  • Brexit
    I haven't seen the deal or the bill, but the commentators are saying that the implementation period ends Dec' 2020 and that an extension must be agreed in June 2020. It is suggested that it was by dangling a no deal Brexit at the end of this period if a future deal is not agreed by then, which brought the majority of the ERG on board on Saturday. John Baron stated this explicitly and I think we can assume that Bill Cash and a handful of the hardest brexiters are banking on this. Also ministers have been saying over the weekend that the threat of this no deal at the end of the period is an important bargaining tool in the negotiations for the future agreement.

    So we have the same hardline rhetoric with a cliff edge continuing for another 14 months and considering that the government has been populated with hardline brexiters. This wreckless behaviour is not going to end anytime soon.

    You know the phrase we keep hearing in the media, "people just want to get this done", "we just want to get this done", is so disingenuous. Nothing will be done, we are in for at leat another year and a half of this and many years beyond that.

    Meanwhile it's bye bye Scotland.
  • Brexit
    It looks like Rees Mogg won't be granted a vote on the deal today by the speaker. So he will have to bring forward the withdrawal bill, which will be eroded all week by the opposition, until it has faded so much that it's a dead duck. The first amendment may be a customs union with the EU for the whole of the UK.
  • Brexit
    A new extension is required to throw Johnson out of Downing st, without the risk that parliament finds itself not sitting during the period up to the 1st of November. In which case we leave the EU by default. ( if an election is called, parliament doesn't sit for 5 weeks)

    So we have trench warfare between the government and the opposition. In which Johnson will try to ram through his deal and the opposition will do anything to prevent him without the risk of a no deal by default. The opposition can throw him out now( well it's very close, it might come down to one or two votes), but there is a risk ( of no deal) which is why they are waiting.

    The EU I expect is simply trying not to get involved, drawn into this battle, while also trying not to facilitate a no deal by default, or by accident. In which case they would take the blame for causing it.

    It's in Corbyn's interest to wait because Johnson is powerless and digging a hole for himself, to die in a ditch, "do or die". In the meantime Corbyn can bring amendments to erode Johnson's deal, making it softer and less palatable for the ERG, thus reducing his majority. ( the ERG only came onboard with Johnson's deal because there would be a no deal by default at the end of the implementation period in December 2020, which they are gunning for, if this is taken away, their support will fade).
  • Brexit
    The DUP said they would support another referendum yesterday, it will be close.
  • Brexit
    Takes Johnson’s threat of ‘no deal’ as a bargaining chip, and turns it right back on the Brits
    Nice, it will really hang Johnson out to dry though and play into Corbyn's hands.

    Johnson is a blundering oaf, his chutzpah has no legs, or should I say trousers.
  • Brexit
    I have to agree with your assessment of Johnson getting the deal through or winning an election, although I would erh on the side of only just scraping through. But it's looking now that there is going to be a confirmatory referendum tacked on. Or failing that a confidence vote in the last week of October. An accidental no deal at the end of October is not looking likely now as Oliver Letwin is happy and doesn't think he will be bringing any other amendments, so Corbyn will be lining up for the no confidence vote now.
  • Brexit
    Possible, but I think the EU's political leaders probably have enough political acumen to realize that they'd be playing into Johnson's Hands if they did.

    Yes, but they will not want to be drawn into the internal politics of another country. They will have to tread carefully.

    Already I hear that Johnson sent a photocopy of the letter unsigned, with an accompanying signed letter saying that the first letter is not his words, but those of Parliament and that any delay would be harmful to both Britain and Europe. I wonder if there are threats included. He insisted that he will continue pushing his deal through parliament and will leave by 31st.

    I know that they have the measure of him, but if you have a petulant child, it is difficult to manage them without having to step over any red lines.
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    I am what I am regardless of what I think. And I can't be more than what I am.
    I did not say I can't be more than what I think I am.
    Yes, I was saying that you are more than you think, or are conditioned to think. That there is a kind of enquiry through contemplation of self, as well as philosophical enquiry, or scientific enquiry.

    Is that ok?
  • Brexit
    he just has to send the letter.
    There is a risk, the EU might not grant the extension, or they might say there must be a democratic event, or the meaningful vote must be held first, in which case we might see more chicanery. It's an unknown.
  • Brexit
    Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?
    l can't see a way to avoid it, at least if there is a coalition of the opposition they will enact their plan and the deadlock will be broken by a public vote, a referendum. I put the stalemate down to the inept performance of the government, they should have reached across the isle following the referendum and formed a coalition across the house for a way forwards on such a fundamental change in the future of our country. But they put their own narrow party interest before that of the country.

    I know they couldn't have done that due to the depth of the infighting in their own party, indeed they were so ham strung by their own chaos that they were unable to do anything else but deliver us a deadlock in such a shambles. They should be ashamed of themselves.

    I saw an interview with Ian Duncan Smith on the BBC following the Letwin vote. He was defiant and spitting profanities in indignation and yet he was one of the ERG who through their ideological erotic spasm delivered us this mess, disgraceful.
  • Brexit
    Rees Mogg, the leader of the house has said there will be a meaningful vote on Monday, but the speaker may not allow it.
  • Brexit
    The Letwin amendment has just passed and the government has pulled the meaningful vote, intending to bring it back on Tuesday.
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    I said if there is a God, I did not say if there is a God belief.

    So you are what you think or know yourself to be and that's all?

    How wise indeed (not).
  • Brexit
    There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.
    That's not quite how I see it, I think there is a high likelihood that the Tory's will win the most seats though. But if they don't have a majority, who would they negotiate a confidence and supply arrangement, or a coalition with?
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    if there is a God, you might be more than you think
  • Brexit
    Maybe that's why Farage looked so sad this morning, it was as though he had seen a ghost.

    It won't be getting Brexit done though, unless getting it done is simply crossing the line as it seems is the case for most leavers. Whatever happens after that is of little importance.
  • Brexit
    I would agree with you if the they win the vote tomorrow, although I wouldn't expect such a large majority in the election. However if they lose and it's looking to be by about 10 short at the moment. Then I doubt Johnson will have so much traction during the campaign. He will still have the same problem, if he runs on the deal he's got, or a similar deal he will not drain support from the Brexit party because they think it is not leaving, Farage said as much this morning. Whereas if he runs on a no deal, he loses a sizeable chunk of support who don't want a no deal. So we are back with the infighting in the Conservative side of the argument ( I am regarding the Brexit party as an extreme wing of the Conservative party here).
  • Brexit
    Sam Gyima has pointed out an interesting scenario which supports what I was saying about Johnson's primary aim to be to neutralise the Brexit party and save the Conservative party, which requires a no deal Brexit.

    The opposition is on to this now, so I can see the support from Labour rebels fading away now.

    The scenario is, in this deal NI is safely within the EU backstop, but the rest of the country is not in a backstop as was the case with the May deal. So following the transition period which ends at the end of 2020. If there is not deal agreed for our future relationship with the EU, the default position is a no deal, or world trade rules. And if the we want to extend the transition period for another two years, we have to request it by June 2020, which is 7 months away. So all Johnson needs to do now is offer a have my cake and eat it trade deal and scupper the talks, leading to an irreversible no deal exit at the end of the period. This apparently is why the ERG is happy to back it. The whole time Johnson will be free to smear the EU as trying to control us, or trap us in some way, so the anti EU sentiment will only increase.

    Thus he would make the Brexit party pointless, all their supporters will come back into the fold and he saves his party from oblivion. Brexit, deal or no deal is nothing more than collateral damage. Albeit it would inevitably benefit his wealthy backers.
  • Brexit
    I'm not saying the bankers caused the crisis, but they were heavily involved from our perspective and left the UK very exposed. I don't want to get into the debate about the financial crisis here. I mentioned it as the catalyst for the problems in the Conservative party, which has hit the country hard over the last decade leading to where we now find ourselves.

    Perhaps the words short selling weren't a good choice.
  • Brexit
    I was thinking about what started all this and I put the blame firmly at the door of the Tory heartlands.
    (I am generalising here) I have noticed for over 30 years now the way the privelidged middle class demographic has become money grabbing and cavalier. That it was the bankers who are dominated by patronage from this group which fuelled, or at least capitalised on the short selling which led to the banking crisis. You could see the greed and sharing out of the wealth in their luxury enclaves in the West Country, for example. Following the banking crisis the top heavy Tory party started to nose dive, instigating austerity, a harsh Protestant ethic, which strangled the less privelidged areas of the country draining all their wealth away to pay for the crisis. Of course no bankers went to gaol.

    Immigrants were pushed into poorer areas generating more unrest in these areas, which fuelled the nationalist anti immigration movements in the midlands and the north. Meanwhile the right wing press were drip feeding the Tory heartlands with anti EU poison. The Tory party started to split under the strain and the infighting has led us to this point where the far right have grabbed the reigns of power.

    I wonder if the Power brokers and capitalists had seen this all along, indeed planned it as they saw where the EU was going with sensible social democratic policies and anticipated laws to restrict the offshore tax evasion industry. Which is where the fat cats have been hiding their money. You can certainly see how the owners of the right wing papers have been planning and feeding this division.
  • Brexit
    Yes, its very sad. The people who will lose out are the moderate intelligentsia, including the entire establishment, who were overwhelmingly in favour of remain. Also the young, there are about 2 million younger voters who are now eligible to vote, but who were to young to vote in 2016. There is a majority for remain in this group too and they are the generation who will have to pick up the pieces.

    It really is weird for people who are not in one of the two leave groupings, because it feels like everything was fine and peaceful going along as normal. Then suddenly an upper class twit stood up and said we're going to leave the EU, we need to leave, or we're in trouble. People were thinking what are they talking about, the EU is a great coalition between like minded Europeans, why would you want to put that in jeopardy? Then all these nationalist slogans start appearing and people like Nigel Farage start popping up on TV, with their anti EU rhetoric. Followed by three years of chaos, argument and division.

    When the leave arguments are examined they are vacuous, there was a problem with immigration, but it was within the gift of the government to solve that without leaving. But you get the slogans shouted back at you, with no intelligent argument.

    "We have to leave because we voted to leave, why did you vote to leave? Because we wanted to leave, we have to leave now because we voted to leave!"
  • The Problem of Existence
    I find it comforting. I know that there is something, that's good enough for me and if there's one something, then there must be many others, the world/universe is my oyster.
  • Brexit
    I am not so convinced about the numbers in parliament, the DUP's 10 votes are gone and I doubt there will be more than 5 Labour rebels. This deal is far worse for Labour as it leads to a greater divergence from the EU than May's deal did, leading to a Singapore like destination. I can't see Labour rebels wanting to be blamed for pushing that over the line. Also Tory rebels like David Gauke, or Dominic Grieve are not going to be happy.

    Also there may be some spartans who think it's a betrayal in the other direction. It will be interesting to watch how the support builds, or wanes over the next couple of days.
  • Brexit
    Everyone's a winner then
    Yes, well except for the English, but who cares about them. I'm ok, I will have Scottish citizenship.
  • Brexit
    Nail hit on head.
    Quite a few MP's are saying tonight that cutting off NI permanently like this is the death nail for the Union. There will be no way to stop Scotland following next in line. I expect there are a lot of MP's not happy with this dogs dinner. Whether voters don't care about NI or not, MP's do, as they will be culpable and will have to clear up the mess. Unless of course they are banking on reunification with Ireland soon. Maybe that's the answer, but then it's Scotland next.
    If so, the Tory's are finished as they will be known as the government which brought about the end of the Union as a result of infighting.
  • Brexit
    Not so fast, a lot of the swing votes were waiting to see what the DUP say. Also what they've agreed over NI is a dog's dinner, we will have to see what the swing voters and particularly the Labour rebels think about it. A border pole in Stormont every 4 years, who would agree to that?
  • Brexit
    Yes the DUP have a siege, or bunker mentality, as was pointed out by an Irish political commentator on R4 yesterday. Once the're dug in they hold their ground while the bombs drop around them.
  • Brexit
    Any other players that can replace the lost DUP votes?

    Not easily, there is the ERG( the hard brexiters in the Conservative party) who were following the lead of the DUP, so they will give less support now. There are the Conservative rebels who were expelled from the party a few weeks ago, again their support will drain away now. There are the Labour rebels (brexiters), who will again follow the lead of the DUP, so they will fade away now.

    Apart from these groups who were hanging on the DUP's response, there is no one. Except possibly Sinn Fein, but that's extremely unlikely because they don't sit in the House of Commons as a protest against British rule in NI. So if the DUP don't turn, it's over.
  • Brexit
    Yes, without the DUP they don't have the votes. Johnson has 48hrs to bring them round, but they are the most Stubborn political grouping ever known, so I can't see him succeeding. Even if he showers them with money.
  • Brexit
    Norman Smith (BBC correspondent) has just said that the problem is that the Stormont vote on rolling over the arrangements with the EU or customs, every 4 years. A major concession from the EU agreed over the last couple of days, is not acceptable to the DUP. The problem being that it would require a simple majority in the Northern Ireland assembly (Stormont) in this vote in order to veto the arrangements. This is because the DUP will be in a minority in Northern Ireland, so they have lost their control over the process.

    Not to mention that such a vote would amount to a referendum about the unification of Ireland every 4 years forever. Talk about a recipe for disaster around the border.
  • Brexit
    Surprise surprise, all bets are off.

    Now it's the struggle over the Benn act.
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    The Permanent First Cause has no direction able to be put into it, so it really can't know anything. Its supposed nebluous nature, then, being not anything in particular is a superposition of all possible paths, as like towards a multiverse, which seems to be the cleanest solution, not requiring an intelligence that really shouldn't be there since that violates the fundamental art by having parts in a system.
    This is speculation, I think you are speculating in the right direction, but none of it can be confirmed. Particularly the bit in bold, we really can't say this.
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    Christianity, the biggest and meanest :-) western religion has spiritual texts called the Bible,and the ideology taught in those are God worshirp, and such. I don't know if it is possible to separate god worship and ideology in W religions in to god worship and something else than god worship.

    In eastern religions, you can tell me anything possible, or even impossible, because I don't know them.

    I wasn't referring to Christianity, but even there, there is a large body of spiritual teaching and it's not all about worship.

    In reference to Eastern religions, there is the system of Yoga in Hinduism and meditation on Nirvana in Bhuddism and a vast body of work about spiritual personal development.
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    This is the first time someone called me wise. I am being myself in the world.

    You're babbling at bit here.

    But seriously, are you really yourself in the world? Or are you simply a culturally conditioned persona, believing a collection of pieces of information given you by imperfect people in your environment?
  • Brexit
    it looks as though everyone is hanging on the word of the DUP tonight. If the DUP say yes, the ERG, some Tory rebels, some Labour rebels will follow and the EU may make a final tiny concession to push it over the line. If the DUP say no, then all bets are off. And we all know what they are going to say.
  • Brexit
    Interestingly the deal he is bringing back is essentially the same deal which was about to be agreed in December 2018. When Theresa May told the EU negotiators that she had forgotten to pass it by the DUP and had to rush back and eat humble pie in front of Arlene Foster.

    The DUP are in the driving seat again, which of course means they have no chance of agreeing the deal. The reverend Ian Paisley must be spinning in his grave.
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    I wasn't thinking of faith at all. In my mystical practice there is no faith, belief, or worship. Rather it is a process like yoga of being myself, which involves the body and mind in a developmental process. So the intellect, thinking, is pivotal in this, but not in isolation.

    Or in other words wisdom is not about being really clever and using logic, but being yourself in the world.
  • An Estimate for no ‘God’
    Information is both Subject and Object, both Noun and Verb, both Matter and Energy. Information, according to current physics, is the essence of everything in the world. Or as the link below says : Information is the only thing that exists. So we, subjects and objects, exist within Information.

    I don't disagree with what you are trying to say about information, but I want to make a semantic distinction, as it is conflating two different kinds of "information". You use the word enformation, I would agree with this and will point out that information as subject is a particular conscious knowing in a mind. This is a different thing to your, subjects and objects existing within information.

    The enformation you are referring to is rather a quality of objects, such objects are not carrying information, but qualitative states. They are not carrying information, subjective knowing of things by a mind. The qualitative states they are carrying are not known, at any point, and there are no minds involved.