I think this discussion should be widened out to consider what is going on here, alongside the commentary and discussion of day to day events.

The reason I say this is because I am aware of a phenomena which is not being discussed in the media and by commentators. A denial amongst the chattering classes of the crisis. Also a consideration of the Tory project of the last 40 years and what it has done to our country.

I have noticed a denial of and failure to comprehend the depth of the crisis we have been plunged into. This became particularly acute during the row in the House of Commons the day the commons opened again after the illegal prorogation of parliament. Let me illustrate, Geoffrey Cox and Boris Johnson, both people with great booming voices of a privelidged tone. Stormed the chamber (metaphorically) in a contemptuous aggressive tone, accusing the members of trying anything to prevent the government in its efforts to respect the referendum (an untruth). Then proceeding to say that parliament was broken and could perform its purpose( an untruth). Followed by an attack on a group of parliamentarians who took the action to nullify the prorogation of 5 weeks (contemptuous of the Supreme Court and the constitution). When a few opposition members called them out for disrespectful insightful language and breaking the good chap philosophy of politics established in this country. They were shouted down in the most callous way as humbug and having contempt for parliament and the government(accusing the victims of their attacks as attacking them( the psychology of transference)).

In the media commentary afterwards journalists and MPs followed a line that the tempers and bad language were from all sides, the whole house needed to calm down etc, in reality they were in shock and denial of the abuse of the house that had just taken place by the government. This is when Ian Duncan Smith on behalf of the government, cursed and was spitting out expletives at the contempt of parliament for the government just trying to do its job(showing utter contempt for our politics and constitution).

People involved in this episode (who were not members of this gang of people who had lost touch with reality) were in shock and trying to calm things down and resume normality. This included doing what people do to deflate a bully in our society which is by saying there is heated language on all sides, if we all calm down this would include the bully calming down without lashing out any more.

This is the approach adopted by the people observing the outrage, as is human nature. But it fails to make the bully accountable for the damage they have done, or for them to stop bullying abruptly and behave correctly like everyone else.

Even now people are saying that the dishonest behaviour is from all sides and are failing to hold the bullies to account. While in the meantime the bullies carry on damaging our constitution, our country, our and their integrity and creating more crisis.

It is time for people of integrity to embrace the truth of what is happening here. The Conservative party is not anymore one of our 4 or 5 political party's vying for power in a descent and respectful( for our constitution) way. They have become this bully, they have no respect for, or integrity in, the institutions, the ways of doing things in our political system. The only reason that they are obeying the rules at the moment as we go into this election, is because it serves their purposes and is inline with their plan to hoodwink the population into doing what they want.

This is an abuse and attack on our country by a political party which has lost its way, lost all touch with reason and integrity. Which has been beset with infighting in which the dominant bully has risen to the surface and inflicted this erotic spasm on the country. It is time people call it out for what it is, rather than just thinking its business as usual.

the consensus that we'll all be better off, economically.

Yes, leavers have accepted now that we will take an economic hit, accept a Trump deal and cock a snook at the Europeans. So if Brexit is cancelled we can all feel the glow of economic prosperity friendship with the Europeans and cock a snook at Trump.

The principle of democracy is too important for us of the 'intelligentsia' to overrule the 'ignorant' masses

Don't forget the ignorant Toffs and middle class Tory's, they out numbered those masses and they brought about the flawed referendum to begin with. They should have known better.

So your reservations are with whether the Labour Party will be able to deliver their policies. Perhaps they will have problems here and there, government can be unpredictable and Brexit is a Gordian knot. I can't see much of a problem in their carrying out most of their policies and the reason why their critics can't see how they are going to pay for it is because they are wedded to the ideology of continuous reduction of taxes. It's simple, they will pay for a lot of it by raising taxes. As for Brexit, there is really only one way to resolve it with any kind of valid mandate and that is to have it decided with a referendum on precise choices.

What I am critical of the Tory's for is their contempt for democracy, constitution, parliament, the people, Europe. The fact that they are dishonest, deceptive, divisive. Their claims are nonsense and hollow, for example in Johnson's speech today he said once Brexit is done there will be hundreds of billions of pounds of investment in the country. I could quite easily continue for another page, but I will leave it at that. None of the opposition party's have sold their souls in this way.

Yes I do expect it from Johnson, I do get a bit angry with him though. It is interesting that you suggest Corbyn can't be trusted. Can you suggest what things he can't be trusted on? Also, you imply that he will talk nonsense, or ingage in Tory like tactics. Any example of that?

I agree with what you say about the Greens, but I don't think I can vote for them this time as I will vote tactically.

Johnson's opening campaigning speech today. His privelidged voice sounds irresistible, he has nailed that tone of benevolent optimism, that you hear from the most skilled salesmen. But what he is saying is a word salad of hollow sound bites floundering accusations and slurs about his opponents. Naive inaccuracies about the economic realities of a hard Brexit and the vast investments he is promising for public services. " come with me", as we bring the country back together in a wave of optimism and investment. Or "go with him" (Corbyn) into division, delay, chaos and incompetence.

Interestingly he accused Corbyn of collusion with Putin, while he is refusing to publish the extensive report into Russian collusion in the 2016 referendum and democracy through social media etc.

Its delinquency, this is what the Tory party has become. The decent Tory's have jumped ship and ERG stooges have filled the gap drunk on raw power.

The Tory gaffs are coming thick and fast today.

Works for me!

And for me. Mogg has gone viral now. Stormsy has said politicians actually are aliens. I agree that Mogg, Johnson and Co live on another planet.

Apparently, it's acceptable to call for people like that to be put down. You might imagine death threats are unacceptable, but it seems not.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/tories-back-candidate-francesca-o-brien-benefits-street-remarks-gower

Yes precisely, although when I read your post my first thought was that Mogg was eligible to be put down.

Sorry I must have rushed that post. I meant a meaningful vote on the new deal negotiated by Corbyn and his second referendum.

What I am referring to is that May's deal only required a meaningful vote because Keir Starmer had to demand a vote to secure it. It might not be required for Corbyn's deal, although the legislation will have to pass in the Commons.

Also Corbyn might be able to engineer a second referendum not requiring such parliamentary consent by having binding options on the ballot paper. Which the government would be legally required to implement. I'm no constitutional expert, so this might not be right.

An interesting side issue, which illustrates how out of touch members of the government are. Rees Mogg (mewling pencil), said on LBC yesterday that it was common sense that the people trapped in Grenfell Tower should have ignored the fire brigade and left the building. So in essence blaming the victims and undermining the integrity of the fire service.

But of course a person of such privelidge and high demeanour with a posh voice must be right.

Yes, an important story. The government will have read it and for some reason decided to sit on it. Typical of the ram it through policies of Cummings. The BBC will probably ignore it as it could bring the referendum result into doubt. Let's see if Channel 4, or Sky News pick it up.

As I said in an earlier post. No. Corbyn's renogiated withdrawal deal will include the customs union, single market etc, and for leavers be akin to no Brexit at all, so ref2 will not be viable..

It depends if there is a meaningful vote or what the balance of MPs in the house is after the election. Perhaps the referendum result will be binding. If Corbyn can get it through these hurdles there is no reason to presume that the electorate will choose the leave option. The mood and demographic has changed a lot since 2016.

In respect of Farage, there is a hard core of support who will not vote Tory, because it is not a true Brexit. I can't predict the numbers though. It's going to be unpredictable.

I hear Sinn Fein is doing a pro-remain pact now.

He's miffed, well I can understand that. I was expecting some sort of strategy from him. Even if he gets a pact,the Tory's won't grant him any seats, they'll ask him to stand down his candidates. At the moment he's set to split the vote and let Corbyn in. Perhaps that is a better outcome than having to gift Brexit to Johnson and eat humble pie.

Or is it world domination?

Yes and yes, I think unity and the social crisis is more important for Corbyn than how Brexit is resolved. Which Is evident in his speeches in the house over recent months. He refused to be drawn into the Tory Brexit psycho drama, not because he wasn't tempted, I expect, but because these issues are more important and pressing.

I agree about the super rich seeking to ride out the climate crisis, this may be contributing to the acuteness of neo-Liberalism.

Yes I can see how the cracks might be just on the surface, but as I see it there is an existential crisis in the Conservative party due to two factors. The demographic, they have very little support amongst the young, which runs into the consequences and concerns of a more bleak economic future over the next generation. The turning point as I see it was the financial crisis of 2008, they have been reeling from the fallout since then and the younger generation among their base has financial and social concerns which are outside the traditional remit of the party.

I can see them coalescing around the privelidged classes again once the dust settles, but probably smaller and struggling to get into office, as their base will have shrunk. Also if they have alienated some of their moderate base due to this sojourn to the right, their numbers will shrink more. I think a lot will depend on whether Corbyn gets into office, but I do see a swing to the left due to the state of the country.

Likewise I'm not that bothered about the populist right. I'm more concerned about the Conservative party turning in on itself and defacating on the rest of us. Why don't they go off into a corner and do it there, rather than taking a wrecking ball to our country. It's interesting when I look back to my political development. I started out a Tory, as a teenager, ushering Thatcher in to office, my house was the local conservative Election Day headquarters. I was a Thatcherite through and through, I only saw positive developments. Then from that day forward, we have inexorably drifted apart, until now they are reviled in my eyes. It's a two pronged attack, climate change, I went Green in the 1980's, and the social contract. Two things which don't seem to concern the Tory's, it just gets lip service.

This is not a climate change thread, but I am equally alarmed and feel powerless on this. There is a good Attenborough documentary at the moment, I think he spells it out very well.

I agree, it looks like divide and rule. The degree to which logical argument is meaningless can be evidenced by the outrageous behaviour of Johnson and the group around him and how the supporters jump to justify every action.

I can't work Farage out, he is the Tory's Achilles heal, but why is he gunning so hard? I can only come up with two alternative goals, one he is bluffing while holding a secret pact with the Tory's. Two he would rather be in the EU with Corbyn in power and retain his mantle as Mr Brexit. Rather than help deliver The prize while Johnson takes all the glory.

I can't see either of these as very plausible, so what is he up to?

I'd suggest that the best (and least gratuitousy confrontational) argument for Remain is that it's worth surrendering some sovereignty for frictionless trade with our near neighbours

Yes I agree with this, however I don't find the opportunity arises. The few people I know who voted leave don't discuss it with me and I avoid discussing it with them. We just pretend it's not happening. I suspect this approach is common place, a sign of the division. I find myself discussing it a lot with people I know who voted remain, I suppose we are simply reinforcing memes etc. We are all stuck in these positions relying on the media to mediate. Fortunately the TV media that we all watch is reasonably objective and impartial, with the biased media restricted to print media. I don't know what effect it is having on the constituency which will due to their particular demographic be important in determining the course we take, the swing voters in marginal seats "Workington man". They seem remote to most of us, on both sides, it feels as though we are in a boat without a paddle drifting towards a waterfall. We (99% of us) are powerless to prevent it happening and then we see on the TV Trump talking to Farage over the phone about how great Johnson is. The three stooges, Johnson, Farage and Trump, all duplicitous playing with media, populism and powerful divisive memes. Corbyn the only leader, potential leader who is trying to compromise and bring the country back together being smeared and discounted out of hand by both sides based on outdated prejudice about his policies and what he represents.

Someone in my position is well aware of what these three stooges are doing, what they represent and what motivates them. I don't see much concern for the country there.

Its easier, perhaps I could say the Flying Spaghetti Monster, an old friend of mine. One I have encountered after half a bottle of proseco.

Unicorn is appropriate to illustrate the point. What does the independent UK look like? Perhaps there are many images, some with one horn, some where the grass is greener. I remember Johnson saying something about " the sunlit uplands", " we can have our cake and eat it", I can't remember who said "the exact same benefits".

Yes, I agree. What James is doing is on the phone radio format, so he is discussing the arguments for and against and fending off some attacks from leavers. What I'm doing is looking into the issue with some philosophical objectivity and political enquiry.

I sympathise with your view here, I used the word mistake rather than wrong. I realise that politically the leaver ideology is not in and of itself wrong other than were it is incoherent and/or has no relation to reality. However there are real hard consequences to political choices on the ground, something which we have to bare in mind in our analysis.

As I pointed out yesterday there is a real material consequence for the half of the population who is being forced to leave against their will. At least if Brexit is cancelled, or neutered, that half of the population who wish to leave will not have any material consequences imposed on them. They may feel hard done by, or betrayed, but that is only in terms of their aspiration, not their material circumstances and if they take it hard, that is their intellectual choice, because in reality nothing on the ground would have changed. Perhaps they could say but what about the unicorn I was expecting, look I even provided a stable for it and now you have taken it away from me.

However, in the interests of harmony, Farage shouldn't be demonised. He should be acknowledged as representing the valid views of Eurosceptics. Some of his views are borderline racist, but he and his UKIP party achieved the referendum, which many people clearly wanted. The views of those who want a "clean-break" separation should be taken seriously by remainers. If remaining is achieved, our relationship with the EU must be re negotiated so as to unite the nation.

Do you listen to James O Brian* he is the leading media pundit for remain. He points out that the majority of "leavers", have simply believed a few lies, which like Farages slogans, are easy to believe and propagate. That most of the Brexit party followers, (apart from the working class supporters in the north and east who often have valid concerns) are against immigration, again many of them will have believed lies and untruths about the realities of immigration.

So a proportion of "leavers" are actually mistaken, rather than having well thought through legitimate concerns. Indeed he would go further and point out that there aren't any legitimate concerns about the EU which necessitate leaving the EU. Every concern which has been put to him has been shown to be unwarranted, or more to do with the incompetence of the UK government, than the EU.

I'm not saying that the EU is perfect, or that our membership isn't problematic, but there are no valid reasons to leave which hold up to scrutiny, which to correct would require us to leave the EU. There are a few ideological political views or stances which can make a case for the UK being independent from the EU, but by no means are they a necessity, or required.

* James O Brian, LBC radio, 10.00 am - 1.00pm Monday to Friday.

Farage emerged from an Enoch Powell fascism, apparently he used to goad left wing teachers and lecturers at his college and was described as a loud mouth and good at selling things. I expect he found fertile ground in estuarine right wing organisations in Essex. By the time he managed to become elected as an MEP he had found his ideological ground and as he was being paid to represent the UK in the European Parliament( he tried to be elected to the UK parliament, but failed). He started using the populist techniques he had learnt to good effect there. I dont know exactly why he targeted the EU, but presumably it was free movement that he didn't like, but realised that it would be deemed a racist attitude and so attached the EU for being undemocratic, apparently.

What he has been doing over the last few years is well known. But I don't think he has any other modus operandi. The techniques of populism he has developed is all he has. He is not a politician and now that he finds himself more and more in the political sphere he doesn't know what else to do other than more of the same. So what does he do, he knows that if he stops now he is finished and will be ridiculed and abused by large numbers of people, he has needed body guards for a while now.

So we have what he did last week, he comes out fighting and gunning for the Tory party. Like Trump all he can do is exploit populist memes until he gets to the top. Unfortunately he has come up against his nemesis in Johnson, a carnivorous Tory, with the whole Tory machine behind him, with numerous skilled political operators. It seems as though he has now hit a brick wall, by giving the ultimatum that the Tory party must drop its deal and go for no deal by 14th November.

What is he playing at, world domination?

I'd like to ask the Britons here the following questions?
How are the Lib Dems seen in the UK?

In the UK the Lib Dems are acknowledged as the third of the main party's. In a largely two party system, they are often trapped in the middle, meaning that they often have large swings in their number of seats depending on the mood in the country. Their policies are as centrist as they can be, they are often criticised for being in line with either conservative policies, or Labour, by the other side. But they do have a solid support in the middle ground, the woolly jumper, Saab driving brigade.

All the one nation Tory's are jumping ship now, Matthew Parris has announced his switching to the Lib Dems this morning.

OK, the nation would still be divided. But the decision would be better informed and therefore more acceptable. Maybe.

Yes, which is self evident, dispite all the leavers who keep banging on about the will of the people, saying it would be an affront to democracy, it wouldn't.

There is a big material difference between leaving and remaining which is not acknowledged in the commentary. If we leave half the population will be forced against their will to accept a long lasting and profound material change in circumstances. Whereas if we remain the half of the population who voted to leave will be forced against their will to have no material change in their circumstances.

This exposes the inadequacy of the referendum and that it was ill conceived. For such a large material change it should have required a super majority of 60%, or two thirds majority. Or stated that there would be a confirmatory referendum at the end of the process.

Johnson and Farage are Laurel and Hardy. Hardy says "and this is another fine mess you've got me into". While Laurel whimpering says "sorry", while pouring a bucket of water down Hardy's trousers. On the side of the bucket is a label saying shark infested waters.

but the prevailing view is 'let's get on with it.' Hadn't you noticed the 13% (and rising) Tory lead in the polls?

This may be the case now, but if there is a split in the leave vote, then it's game over and I can hear the cracks spreading.

True, most polls suggest - and have done so for some time - that the balance of opinion might be tilted narrowly in favour of remaining a member of the EU. On average, this is by 53% to 47%.

This might be the state of the polls as of this morning, but it's a long way to polling day and Farage and Johnson have plenty of opportunity to stumble. Indeed in the last 24 hours Farage is flat on his face and trying to bring Johnson down with him and the election campaign hasn't started yet.

Also there are record numbers of young voters registering to vote as we speak and most of them will be voting for remain or Labour party's.

People are speculating that Farage would rather remain in the EU and still be the champion of Brexit. Than allow Johnson to leave and become the hero of Brexit and steal his thunder.

I gather that there might be a of former conservatives that could be disappointed about the whole mess that the conservative party has made itself and how it has dealt with the issue, yet won't ever vote for such a catastrophe as the Labour party.

Yes definitely, there are a lot of former and current Conservatives who are feeling sick watching the shambles. Who will switch to the Lib Dems. Although there is a sliding scale here against how hard they are on Brexit, the harder they are the more likely they are to go to Brexit party.

As I said earlier, a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for Corbyn getting into No 10, because the Conservatives don't have anyone to go into coalition with. Although the Brexit party may win a few seats( they have none now), who they could possibly form an alliance with.

There is a deep split in the Conservative party between hardline, right wing, hard Brexit and moderate, soft Brexit, or remain. Their Achilles heal is the Brexit party, that split will be yawning following the launch of the Brexit party campaign now.

Farage(Brexit party)has opened his campaign, he has come out with a hard line of offering an election pact with the Conservatives. They must ditch their deal and go for no deal( or something equivalent) followed by a Canada style trade agreement by 14th of November, or he will field candidates in every seat and fight them to the death.

He's very critical of Johnson's deal, as a warmed up May deal, which is not really Brexit at all.

It sounds like the death nail of the Conservative party to me.

Quite, the deal which would be negotiated by Labour would be very different to Johnson's deal. Myself as a remainer would be confident in Labour getting a good sensible deal closely aligned to the EU, provided Labour were in power for five years to steer us in the right direction. They might just manage to hold the Union( the UK) together, or if Scotland left, be able to prevent a hard border between England and Scotland.

But if Johnson gets in with a majority we are going to hell in a hand cart. He will ram through his deal with no care for the damage done, because his two main goals are more important than any collateral damage he does in achieving them, firstly to get 5 years in No 10, closely followed and linked hand in glove, with saving the Conservatives from electoral oblivion.

The third goal, making it a heady mix, is to prevent at all cost a socialist party getting into government. Readers outside the UK are probably not aware how profound this would be for the Conservatives and their supporter base. Also what a profound change it would be for the fortunes of our country following forty years of a stranglehold of Tory capitalism, which has brought our country to its knees. If Labour gets into power they will be going after the top 5% of earners and wealth hoarders.

Labour would put it back to the people with binding alternatives. Which would take about 6 months. If Johnson wins and pushes through his deal, he would be snarled up in fractious negotiations for the next stage of talks with the EU, with periodic cliff edges and the continuation of the chaos and division.

The reason that the leaving arrangements with the EU are in such divisive chaos is entirely due to the infighting and rabid Brexit factions in the Conservative party. The party which has been in government for the whole period.

Trump waded in to the election tonight on the Nigel Farage show on LBC.
He said about Johnson,
"He's the exact right guy for the times"
He said about Farage and Johnson,
"if you and him get together you'd be an unstoppable force"
He said about Corbyn,
"Corbyn would be bad for you he'd take you to bad places"

A gift for Corbyn and and an own goal for Farage and Johnson. Corbyn has already tweeted that it's sour grapes from Trump because he won't be able to buy out the NHS with a Corbyn government. Also he's put his foot in it suggesting that Farage and Johnson should team up. A toxic prospect for Johnson.

Cameron sought concessions from the EU. He got some on EU immigration and benefits.

Yes, I thought Cameron did well when he sought concessions and I was surprised at the outcry from the Murdoch press etc, that the concessions were not good enough. It was the first time that I became aware of the extent of the anti EU poison that had been administered by such populist power brokers.

I agree on every point

Another miscalculation which the Conservatives have made, which was illustrated perfectly in an interview with Michael Heseltine on Sky News yesterday. Is that they are are overestimating the the perception in the mind of the voters of how reviled Corbyn is as a socialist.

Hesletine said, the Brexit vote was a protest vote against austerity (austerity is Corbyn's main attack line against the government and his socialist policies will immediately begin to reverse austerity). He then said that in his opinion Brexit is a calamitous mistake and he would vote for a party which will stop Brexit happening. That was all fine, but he then contradicted himself politically by attacking Corbyn as an extreme Marxist who is not fit to be prime minister and would never get into power. The problem being, if he is going to vote for any party which will stop Brexit, he will be voting to put Corbyn into government. He then found himself in an impossible position in which he couldn't say who he would vote for.

This is typical of the knots that the Conservatives have tied themselves into over these issues. Many dyed in the wool Conservatives believe this line that Corbyn is unelectable for these reasons, but they have lost touch with vast swathes of the country who are angry at the extent to which austerity is destroying our public services, fuelling the wealth divide and through universal credit, punishing the poor and causing a big increase in homelessness (this is a long list). Also there is a growing green vote worried about climate change. Such people will vote Green, or Labour.

I don't have any certainty, commentators are saying it is likely to be the most unpredictable election in recent history. Because the smaller party's will win more seats due to the two main party's being divided on the Brexit issue. Also there is a big new issue, which did not figure much before, climate change. The other big problem for the Conservatives, is that their big election policy other then Brexit, is lots of spending on public services and infrastructure. But it is a hollow promise because it is their government which has starved these things of cash for the last 10 years, until they are at breaking point. For example, they are promising 20,000 more police officers, while they have cut officer numbers by 21,000 over the last 10 years. The voters will see through such hollow promises.

Added to this is the problem which has emerged for the Conservatives due to their hardline do or die policies. They don't have any friends, other party's who will go into coalition with them, or a confidence and supply arrangement, because they totally alienated the DUP by putting a border down the Irish Sea. What this means is for them to form a government they must have an outright majority, of between 321-326 (I can't find the exact figure) seats.

What this means for the opposition party's is that any seat won by any other party will reduce the majority which the conservatives can win. And the opposition party's will all cooperate if required in tactical voting, or coalition.

So taking all this into consideration my prediction is for a rainbow coalition of remain party's in coalition with the Labour Party.

I hear the Brexit party is feeling forlorn as the Tory's won't talk with them about a pact. We haven't heard from them yet it will be interesting what line they take. I don't see them backing down as yet, there is a valid fear that in order for Johnson to get his deal through and hold his party together, by pleasing the moderates, if he gets a majority, he will water it down, until it is Brexit in name only.