ah, but have they told the EU?

I know, but in the eyes of this group of Tory's it's the fear of a Corbyn government alongside their own haemorrhaging of support to the Brexit party which drives their push for a no deal.

So you have a perfect storm in the minds of these people

I would happily vote for the the Lib Dems or Labour, (I am a Green Party supporter) as the economy needs repairing and I have confidence that Corbyn would start the work to repair the country.

Yes, I am sure the EU will grant an extension if a general election is called. They realise that there is a crisis in the UK which requires time and patience to resolve and they don't want to be perceived as responsible for a no deal Brexit.

Which seems to me to mean that the UK is going to *have* to cancel Article 50, or face the economic consequences of crashing out, which will almost certainly provoke a severe economic downturn.

Yes and I would hope the government would revoke, but as I said earlier it is much deeper than this. The government has lurched to the right and is now expressing the demands of a group of Tory's who are fighting to save the Conservative party. This is far more important to them than what happens in the Brexit crisis. They would revoke today if it saved their party, but the only hope in their eyes is to leave without a deal and hope that support for the Brexit party would begin to wane and die as people realised that the Brexit party had no purpose any more.

They really are rabid, because not only are they fighting for the soul of their party, but they see looming on the horizon a Corbyn government, which in their eyes would be a living hell just as bad as a worst excesses of a no deal Brexit. Precisely because at least in that no deal Brexit they, the Conservative party would still be there to help clear up the mess. If Corbyn is there and the conservatives have died, their whole world falls apart and the soul of the country is lost.

yes, if an extension isn't granted article 50 ends and the UK ceases to be a member. It's all in the gift of the EU.

Sorry I was still typing on my last message while you posted.

Yes, but if this law is passed, Johnson will not be able to leave with no agreement. It’s all bluff and bluster.

He can, leaving without a deal is the default position at the moment, it requires action to prevent it.The fact that it is illegal in the UK for the government in the UK to "leave without a deal" is irrelevant to this.

For example Johnson could go to the EU summit in October claiming he is going to request an extension and abide within the law and disappear on route ( get in a car and drive to a secret location and hide until after 31st October). The extension would not have been requested and we would leave without a deal. The Queen could request the extension in his place, but she may decide not to interfere in politics and let it happen rather than get embroiled in political chaos.

One might say well that's ok, we can just go back to the EU and say sorry about Boris, he acted illegally can we forget it ever happened and have that extension anyway. But the chances are they would not be able to grant this, or they would not want to. Or they might say only if you revoke, or yes ,but you loose your special privileges( which are considerable).

In these circumstances the chaos and division would be ramped up far higher than it is at the moment and we would be on the street and edging closer and closer to a civil war.

Still can’t get Brexit through even 3 years later. Remainers like to pay lip-service to democracy while opposing the will of the people at all costs. Let’s see how long they can disguise their authoritarianism beneath their glittering generalities.

Its the breath taking incompetence of Theresa May and the ERG which has left us in this mess. The opposition was happy to work out a cross party Brexit deal and would have voted it through ten months ago.

That's the worry when it's a test of virility. Perhaps Rees Mogg will have to step into the breach with his Mogg spreading

Yes, it sounds like the opposition has a similar view. I heard someone remarking on Johnson's phrase "do or die", saying that if we don't grant him an election, then its die rather than do.

Yes its all very promising and the parliamentary process of resting control from the bexiters. But the problem is far deeper, you will need to step up a gear, the government is in the control of an ideological cult. They will do anything to push us over the cliff, including breaking the law, fake news, Trumpism. They are rabid and the opposition has to prepair for the worst of these tactics because it is not worth the risk. This is why I said in my last message we could well find ourselves on the streets.

I'm hoping that if things break down to far, or Johnson does something tragic to avoid requesting an extension from the EU that the EU will grant an extension by some other means dealing directly with parliament.

I woke up in the night spitting cartoons of Johnson's head on a spike and coughing up voodoo dolls of Boris (I am a satirical cartoonist in my spare time). But then the thought that I should keep my head down or some right wing radical might seek me out, came over me, followed by the thought that we may soon be on the streets if this madness continues.

Apparently Johnson is going to demand an election today, which he overwhelmingly doesn't want. Goading Corbyn to agree to one on 15th of October. Corbyn appears to be teetering on the edge of granting it, while the vast majority of his Labour colleagues are trying to pull him back from it and wait until the extension has actually been granted. This is clearly the right strategy, because if they don't agree to an election until then, Johnson is powerless and sooner or later his sham of a government would be exposed and he would probably break the law.
Whereas if he grants an election on the 15th, parliament is immediately dissolved, parliament is silent and powerless while the Johnson is let loose to rampage across Whitehall, change the date of the election do whatever he wants.

The fate of our country rests in Corbyn hands over the next few days, give him strength to hold his nerve.

I've just heard Johnson's first PM questions, a rip roaring performance of bluff and bluster. In which he managed to insult nearly everyone and both claimed to want an election and not want one in the same breath. Apparently Johnson is the best of friends and partners with all the European leaders, while Corbyn is a friend of all the worlds despots, and emulates Venezuela, indeed he is Carackers. Oh and also the only chlorinated chicken in the house.

Corbyn asked repeatedly for him to publish the revised operation yellow hammer report which was to be published today by Gove, but which was pulled due to being too alarming for the public. He didn't answer and waffled on like some drunken outdated bar prop.

There are always too many servants, except when there are not enough.

Well said.

Yes, most will suffer economically from leaving the EU, and the influx of immigrants will continue because there is a need for them in the market. The only difference that there may be, is that they might not all come from the EU.

Most of the leavers I meet as a poll clerk can take the hit, they are mostly retired and asset rich.

I agree that the Polish are being unfairly targeted. There is an issue with the numbers of EU citizens who have moved into areas like East Anglia. I have recently visited many of the regional towns in Norfolk and Lincolnshire. While walking around the streets about 90% of the people I pass, or hear are polish, or are speaking polish. As many as half the shops are polish, or aimed primarily at polish customers. I don't have a problem with this, although it does seem a bit strange, when I remember how those streets used to be. But I do sympathise with the indigenous British residents who feel they have been taken over by foreigners and I can understand why such areas voted so strongly to leave the EU.

This situation is purely demographic, however I don't see it as a membership of the EU problem specifically. There are other ways to address the imbalance in such places and leaving the EU may not stop the flow of foreigners. It is fuelled primarily by market forces, which are not going away if we leave the EU.

It seems to me that no matter how bad or stupid a politician or idea is, the BBC can be trusted to normalize and promote it in the name of journalistic objectivity.

Yes, for example the way they legitimise Farage. If you want to get a deeper insight I would recommend James Obrian on LBC. 10.00 -1.00 weekdays. He's not on today, but tomorrow's show should be a good one.

Great, I watched Johnson's statement, it was pathetic, very Trumpian. He's going down.

Yes, I know, but I'm in south Norfolk, in 2017 the Tory's got approx 35,000 votes, Labour 15,000 and the two other candidates less than 1,000. Most of East Anglia is a Tory stronghold.

I am a poll clerk in a rural area and am used to the elderly farmers banging on about polish immigrants and their Tory credentials.

Brexit per se. I mean, it's not a matter of voting for one side that supports Brexit, and another side that opposes it

Yes, Johnson wants to give the electorate a choice between a hard Brexit with the Tory's and a disastrous Corbyn government (economically) which will also keep us in the EU, or half in half out. This sneaks a hard Brexit through under the fear of Marxist Labour policies. Also it drains support from the Brexit party, pushing the Tory's over the line.

Labour won't agree to an election until a further extension is agreed with the EU (until 1st Jan'), they realise that if Johnson calls for an election this week and they don't support it , Johnson is left helpless with no way to turn, the emperor has no clothes.

I am in a safe Tory seat unfortunately and will vote for the remain alliance, which ever party represents this.

Agreed, Rebecca Long Bailey has just said that the position of the Labour Party is that stopping a no deal Brexit comes before any priority for a general election. They do know about the elephant trap and that Johnson will thrash about for any means of preventing parliament acting. This might include fooling the opposition into helping him call a general election( he needs a two thirds majority in the house to call the election) which would be held before 31st of October and then changing the date to after that date further down the line. Or any number of distractions to delay it until beyond that date. Ensuring a no deal Brexit with no debate, or consent from parliament.

It looks as though Johnson is already grasping at straws and sinking into chaos.

Remember Remember the 1st of November.

It is putting party before country all the way, down. The problem is the hard brexiters within the Tory party see no other way out. If we don't leave without a deal they will implode with a viscous fight within thelmselves and electoral oblivion, it will buoy up the Brexit party if this happens, but only temporarily and then they will hang around on the margins for a generation or so, being a one issue party, on an issue which has been decided. We will gradually all get back to normal and restore the "good chap", method of government.

The biggest travesty is that the Queen was drawn into the deceit, had she not agreed to prorogue, she would have entered the fray and the Tory's would have savaged her. The distinguished historian Peter Henesey said on Friday, "on the 27th of August in the library of Balmoral, the good chap theory of government broke apart at the feet of the Queen." This is the treason and I will be taking it up with the headmaster of Eton college.

Sickening, they just lined up and said what their aids had decided the Tory base wants, while airing their dirty Landry in public. We saw Johnson's true colour's there, he didn't answer a single question, just waffled and tried to shout down the interviewer on the ITV debate, launched a pathetic attack on Hunt in reference to the UK ambassador to the US. While ignoring any of the pressing political and government issues. His stance on Brexit faced both ways at the same time, in a vain attempt to draw the two sides of his Party together.

Literally a pantomime, great for the image of the Tory party, which is sinking like the Titanic.

I think Jo Swindon is grand standing to get some media exposure. She claimed Corbyn had made it a precondition that he would be the caretaker PM before the coalition bring the no confidence vote. I see no evidence of this, but rather Corbyn proposing that it should be him as he is the leader of the opposition. She is going to talk with him, so I think they will work something out, and she only has a few MPs, although they are growing at the moment and I expect they would split if it came to the crunch.

It was hilarious watching Grant Shapps last night saying we can't have Corbyn leading a caretaker government because he would wreck the economy etc, when it is well known that the caretaker government would explicitly be for the one purpose of stopping no deal and calling an immediate general election. This is the standard of Tory rhetoric these days, a laughingstock.

Yes, Corbyn is a true socialist and a long way left of the current administration, or perhaps what might be desirable. However I think the state of the nation is so unbalanced, so skewed against any social equality, so rampant exploitation of people who are vulnerable through a lack of resources. The welfare state is so under resourced, squeezed and on its knees, that the only way to restore any balance and equality, to bring us back from the brink of some sort of social/cultural breakdown would be to move radically towards the left and bring some relief for those who are struggling and being exploited.

I expect you are aware of how inflated property prices discriminate against the under resourced. In the UK the housing crisis is fuelling a rapid increase in the gap between the rich and the poor. Leaving anyone who is not a property owner exploited by those who do and the redistribution of the poor into sink towns and estates and the well off gentrifying idillic villages and desirable areas. These forces are exploited through contemporary forms of capitalism and corporate interests. This alongside the way in which the wealthy and corporations syphon of wealth and profits offshore, is bleeding the society dry.

We really do need this state of affairs rectifying , rather than being fuelled by a trade deal with the US.

I would prefer Corbyn to Johnson, because we would have some welcome policies enacted. His lack of leadership as it comes across in the media is preferable than the buffoonery irrespective of the policies. Actually as a government I would expect the Labour Party to do well and work diligently towards repairing an ailing economy following 10 years of Tory austerity.

I would point out that the way Corbyn is depicted in the British media Including on the BBC is over critical and biased in favour of an accepted view amongst the intelligentsia/establishment that he is bad news, an extreme socialist, Marxist( in the most negative sense)* and that his government would pretty much bankrupt the country, drown us in debt, be chaotic and disorganised and bring back overbearing unions etc etc. Such views, although often watered down, are widely accepted as fact in the UK amongst large swathes of the population. This bias has persisted from the 1970's and is rarely challenged in the media and many left wing commentators are largely disregarded as lefties.

In reality it would begin to bring back some sorely needed balance in the running of the country, which has become unequal, exploitative etc, with public services in a state of bankruptcy. It left us over exposed in the financial crisis, with most of the population just about managing, teetering on the edge of defaulting on their mortgages, or loans( so you can see how sorely we need a no deal Brexit).

*I didn't even mention the slurs about a Corbyn foreign policy. Which are in the realms of he is dangerous( wear as Johnson is not), is probably in the pocket of Putin and could not be trusted to push the nuclear button if the country was under attack.

The reason they elected Johnson was to save the Tory party. That is even more important than Brexit, although most Tory's think Brexit is essential to achieve it and that not leaving in short order will destroy the party anyway.

The way he will(apparently) do it is by beating Corbyn decisively in an election and delivering Brexit, hence rendering the Brexit party meaningless. There's no other way of saving them and Johnson has the popularity amongst the electorate ( supposedly) to do it.

The're doomed in the long run, as their support is mainly old middle class white and almost non existent in the young, and what there is is dropping off a cliff at the moment.

Yes, but this was always about what the British people want. The EU have repeatedly asked what we want and they will accommodate that, what ever it is, in a way which maintains the integrity of their single market and the 4 freedoms etc.

I've thought of a new mantra, harking back to the gunpowder plot. Following which the population was taught to recite the saying "Remember Remember the 5th of November", as a warning against plotters to overthrow parliament. Now, we must start saying;

Remember Remember the 1st of November.

(Johnson is considering calling an election to be held on the 1st of November.)

I don't see May's deal as a compromise because the country is to polarised now. It is either total no deal exit, or revoke. Neither side would accept May's deal.

Even if May's deal is accepted, it is only a transition, the new relationship has not been worked out yet and the same issues of Northern Ireland, single market, customs union etc will still have to be solved.

I think Labour will have to campaign for remain in the general election, because otherwise a coalition of remain party's will decimate their vote. It might be to late already because a lot of voters have written Corbyn off as unreliable, because he is at heart anti EU, whilst also showing few leadership skills and a hopeless leader of the opposition.

I expect the Lib Dems will win the popular vote, but I don't know how that adds up in numbers of constituencies to win a general election. I expect that about two thirds of the people who will vote will vote for remain party's now, because it is such an unholy mess with the only sensible way out being to revoke article 50.

Yeah, pretty sure May’s agreement is the compromise. What the government want is for the EU to give us more without us giving anything back.

It would be interesting to know what the "more" is, I bet the EU negotiators would like to know that too.
The trouble is if there is a no deal exit then the brexiters will have to work out what the "more" is. Because when the shit hits the fan, they'll have to sit down with the EU again and go right back to square one with the same issues to deal with, while having lost all leverage, integrity and face.

Perhaps they will find that to unpalatable and say to hell with the EU, we'll go and find other friends. Only to find no one else will want to make friends with us until they know what our relationship with the EU will be. So again they will have to go back and sit down with the EU, with even less credibility.

I can't see any hope for the Conservative party, the're dooomed. At least then we will get someone more moderate, or left wing in for a while and begin to put the country back together again after 40 years of being ravaged by Tory's.

I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I would bet that this won't be true, that's his leadership and/or government is going to fall before that date.

I'd agree, from the commentary yesterday it looks like he won't get that far and parliament will seize power during September.

So the no confidence vote will be at the beginning of September, parliament will then have 14 days to find a leader who can command a majority in the house. Johnson is powerless to prevent this and can't advise the Queen(as he doesn't have the confidence of the house). If this fails parliament can command Johnson to request a further extension from the EU for a general election. Which he must do or the Queen would be likely to sack him and form another government against his will.

Thank God for the Queen, I wonder who is giving her advice at this time? I'm not sure the Privy council can be relied upon to be untainted at this point?

But Johnson will be PM until 10/31. And then there's an election? I don't get it.
7 hours ago Options

There isn't a working government during an election campaign. Also the election hasn't been called as yet.

We have an interesting twist developing at the moment. At a meeting of representatives of the EU 27 yesterday, it was stated that there is currently no basis for any talks with the UK and that the EU is working on the assumption that there will now be no deal.

While back at home Boris appears to have boxed himself in. He cannot negotiate with the EU, because they will not agree to what he wants, I don't think he knows what he wants and he hasn't announced it. He would come back from the EU with egg on his face and be judged weak by his party, which would resume the implosion of the party, which he's only just managing to hold together.

He can't adopt no deal as the official policy of the government because Parliament would bring the government down. Which would also resume the implosion of the party and could bring in a party of national unity before 31st October. So he just blusters on claiming that he wants a deal, while not meeting or approaching the EU, or the leaders of our European neighbours. Something which is, by the way, highly disrespectful to neighbourly relations.

He has to string us along as far as possible so that he can instigate a general election less that 5 weeks before 31st October( a general election takes a minimum of 5 weeks). As an alternative to pirogueing parliament(which he can't do now, as Dominic Grieve would take him to court at that point). So that there is no government on 31st October and we leave the EU by default.

Oh and of course, the EU would be to blame with their "undemocratic backstop".

This is how he saves the Conservative party from oblivion, because there would then be no need for the Brexit party.

Are there any leavers out there who want to point out how this is not putting party before country and a perversion of democracy?

Question to the UK members: was the prospect of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, and the consequent risk of a return of the Troubles, highlighted in the referendum campaign as a likely consequence of leaving?

If not, surely that alone is sufficient reason to have a second vote, as it would be reasonable to assume that many people were not aware of that very significant consequence when they cast their first vote.

Sorry I missed this. In my recollection this was not mentioned at all during the campaign. And I agree with Michael, that the risk of the Good Friday agreement failing is sufficient reason to revoke article 50 and return to the decision to leave after a public debate.

Thanks for your thoughts, its interesting to hear insight from someone outside the UK. I sympathise with your concerns. Where I differ in my analysis is that I don't see the EU becoming a corporate entity, in the short term at least. I see how this is an issue in the US and I can see how corporate interests would move in on the touted trade deal with the US. Also I realised that the Ttip negotiations hinged around corporate access into the EU from the US. In my view the EU has quite good social democrat values and processes and it cannot be overstated that the Union was an important remedy to thousands of years of conflict between different regions within Europe.

The issue of "ever closer union" is a different matter and is at the heart of the crisis in the UK. I should stress that I see a deep existential crisis within the UK. This was a surprise to the EU and has been realised and spoken about by Michel Barnier, the EU chief negotiator. Leading to them bending over backwards to accommodate the UK and their flexibility in granting extensions, while the Conservatives fight amongst themselves.

As I see it the issue in this crisis is the love hate relationship between the UK and other parts of Europe which has been ongoing for thousands of years. The dichotomy between the concept of us being in Europe, or out of Europe is a conundrum occupying the thoughts of British people repeatedly over this period, without a resolution. So periodically we are revisited with crises hinging on this point.

On this ocassion it appears to have manifested inside the Conservative party, which is tearing itself apart and may soon implode, while visiting considerable flack on the population at large.

But then the nearby hinterlands could be converted to banana plantations to take advantage of the change in the climate.

A banana republic, lol

Well said. I have been surprised for years now how polarised the US electorate is. While I thought politics was more fluid in the UK. Now we are equally, if not more so, polarised and it is quite a surprise. I realise that the split had been developing beneath the surface for years, but I thought the EU scepticism was in a minority amongst the hard right and a little amongst the hard left. What surprised many was a large group of traditionally working class labour voters in the north who voted leave and a strong leave vote in agricultural areas ( who will suffer most from leaving).

Unfortunately this has resulted in the hard right seizing power, so we're in for a rollercoaster ride now.