The whole goddam battle for Kiyv wasn't even going on!!! — ssu
The plan was to take Kiev, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Odessa, possibly Dnipro. If it suceeded, there would be little to no resistance, as the entire government structure would collapse (with Lviv being the only remaining bigger center). Ukrainians would have no choice but to accept peace on very unfavorable terms, most likely with puppet Russian government installed. How exactly does that 'dismiss the entire western narrative of the Ukraine war'? — Jabberwock
The Russian army went into Ukraine with at the very most a 190,000 troops. There is absolutely no way the Russian army, comprised of a 190,000 troops, could conquer all of Ukraine. — John J. Mearsheimer
Present Russia is a prime example of a country where it's leaders are so seduced about it's imagined greatness they will ruin everything absolutely everything. — ssu
For once in America's recent history, it's realpolitik goals and the morality of the situation happen to intersect: helping the Ukrainians is the right thing to do. — RogueAI
Having said all that, if I was the Russians I would be very very nervous because, in the immortal words from the opening scene in Patton : "Americans are winners, we hate to lose and love to win" And in this instance winning is going to require something from left field. — yebiga
The UN voted a few times prior, but the suggestion of peacekeepers and votes could depart some from that, or at least perhaps bring more of what the parties want out in the open.
Worthwhile? Try? Waste of time? Futile? — jorndoe
I'm sitting across the table from a self-identifying incel of the virulent online kind I've earlier described. Let's call him a friend of a friend I have just met. He brazenly begins to expound on his misogynistic world view. What do I do? Is silence complicit? Is compassion complicit? Is polite debate legitimizing? Is opprobrium counter-productive? I'm reminded of Nietzsche's advice that to spare someone shame is the greatest charity but this someone is so immersed in shame and so apparently in love with it, it seems that neither further shaming nor compassion can work. What can work? We don't want them leaving the table thinking talking this way has no consequences but we can't batter them into submission either. — Baden
Uhh, actually no.
It's not so simple, actually. — ssu
The real issue is fire discipline and the ability for the radar operator to know when to shut his radar off. The survival of a SAM unit isn't in it's ability to shoot down missiles, it's simply to understand when to not use the radar, when not to engage when to engage. Move and conceal your SAM's and use them only when the situation favors you. — ssu
Obviously you need both, but once you have the air force capable of winning air superiority, then you don't need so much GBAD. — ssu
Ok, first an S-300 or S-400 system is quite useless without it's radars working. — ssu
Old iron bombs were used in Vietnam, so even that can work (if one is very careful). — ssu
A great example is Israeli attack on Syria GBAD in the Bekaa Valley during "Peace for Galilee" operation named Operation Mole Cricket 19. The Syrian systems weren't so old in the early 1980's. — ssu
No, it is true. Just look at history: if you have a capable air force that can gain air superiority, then most of the kills will be done in air-to-air combat. Air superiority is the single most important factor in
deciding the outcome of a modern conventional war. And when either side cannot gain air superiority, well, you have a war that likely will go on for a long time. Hence for the Ukrainian air force as it is smaller than the Russian air force, it's first objective is simply just to exist. — ssu
Exactly. And not having any combat aircraft is a huge disadvantage: even having a small contingent of aircraft that are sheltered and not used are basically a fleet-in-being. As long as they exist, it limits the actions of the other side.
First of all, GBAD cannot gain air superiority above enemy territory. Hence aircraft are crucial in winning an air war. An effective GBAD will result in what basically has happened in Ukraine: the other side simply won't fly in the area where there is the effective GBAD. That's what GBAD can do. But it won't destroy the enemy air force if the enemy doesn't fly. In this war both sides have opted just to use artillery, fire missiles at each other from their own airspace protected by their own GBAD. — ssu
But you simply can have early warning system and get the jets into the air to intercept them. — ssu
My country's own air force has dealt with this from it's birth and has never assumed to gain air superiority. For some reason, you never saw them flying high during the Cold War, but dashing on treetop level when flying from one place to another. — ssu
Even if the S-400 has a great range, again basic physics comes to play as you remarked to Boethius. The Earth is round and also Ukraine a big country. Hence you can do the math just how this effects target acquisition of radars and their ability to track low flying aircraft. — ssu
Your argument was that the weapon system was old. — ssu
Fighters are an integral and important part of air defense. Naturally you need GBAD starting from securing the airfields of the fighters, but the fact remains that you can fight against enemy aircraft with your own aircraft. — ssu
You think fighters are (or would be) kept 24/7 in air? How about having them up when you have enemy aircraft up in the air. — ssu
It's quite rare to have fighter aircraft on CAP 24/7. — ssu
Are they now? AGM-88E came into service in the 2010s. AGM-88G is coming to service only now. — ssu
However, a small number of expensive planes can't be risked to conduct air strikes. — boethius
For, the Russians can't risk much their expensive planes either, so as long as Ukraine has planes with missiles that can get into the air and shoot missiles then this is a big risk to Russian fighters. — boethius
The F16's are better than having no planes at all, but everything you explain just emphasises they cannot get near Russian forces and their use is severely limited. — boethius
Since WW1, it has been obvious that ground based air defence GBAD has a more effective alternative, namely fighter defence, other aircraft. And this is why GBAD has usually played the second fiddle in wars. The machine guns fitted to biplanes then were as potent or actually statistically more potent to shoot down enemy aircraft than artillery pieces on the ground. Nothing has changed since then as this is a matter of simple physics. A missile shot from an aircraft has already speed, doesn't need to climb as high and obviously the pilot with his speedy weapons platform can change places far more quicker than a land based one to get the optimum firing solution. — ssu
Hence if Ukraine wants cut off the land bridge to Crimea or some other do outstanding stuff, it is extemely difficult and perhaps impossible without denting the Russian GBAD. The are only few MiG-29s now capable of firing HARM missiles with the Ukraine Air Force. — ssu
Because of pacification of the held areas, Russia isn't advancing? — ssu
How about the simple fact that neither side has the capability for large-scale maneuver warfare [...] — ssu
How did that Russian winter offensive go? Ah, they got Bakhmut! — ssu
It will take time for Russia to transform into a wartime economy, [...] — ssu
And as those Ukrainian air defence systems have been mainly from Cold War stocks and the factories for additional missiles lie in Russia, Ukraine is urging for fighters and seems that the US obviously has noticed this problem and will start to give those fighters. — ssu
I don't want to be an apologist for their behaviours either. — ChatteringMonkey
The incels represent a resistance to the liberation of women, but this is its self-image, its ideology, a manifestation of an underlying problem--and, I would say, a self-consciously countercultural reaching back to a patriarchal worldview that they have not in fact developed naturally from their communities. — Jamal
Why do they choose to be miserable? — Vera Mont
They shouldn't be expected to do it all on their own. What happened to their support network? The adult mentors and community organizers, coaches, teachers, scout-masters, den-mothers, big sisters and brothers, and church-ladies? — Vera Mont
In essence what it does is widen the community to which one must conform to he seen or heard. Thus expectations are much higher across such a broad sphere than they ever would have been in a small close knit circle of friends.
Being aware of global society from our phones, we are aware of greater heights of beauty, greater depths of skill - from extreme sports to cooking to all sorts. We see the best of the best in every discipline going viral. — Benj96
What used to be genuine popularity for your authentic self has become being a brand, self promoting, being all things to all people, and if you can't, fake it till you make it/edit the shit out of yourself, and this just isn't a true social relationship like the ones that evolved for millenia. — Benj96
Maybe they should get off their cellphones and go out to the baseball park or volunteer to pick up roadside garbage or join go a voter recruitment drive. You won't develop intimate relationships without meeting actual people in the actual world. — Vera Mont
Have we corrupted the beauty ideal as a society? How do we ensure every child grows up feeling attractive/ with good self esteem? — Benj96