Ukraine Crisis For Putin this war is existential. — ssu
Not just for Putin, mind you.
It's quite popular among the mainstream media to repeat the idea that this is 'Putin's war', but
it's been known since prior to the 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit that NATO expansion into Ukraine is a red line for much if not all of the Russian political establishment.
So yes, the Russians are prepared to go far in order for this war to be settled in their favor. That much should be crystal clear by now.
That moment has passed, it's not turning, things have changed. — ssu
True. Things have gotten gravely worse for Ukraine. There's nothing left of the bargaining position they had in March/April 2022. Frontlines are crumbling, nations are starting to talk about withdrawing support, etc.
That's a direct result of choosing the military path, and continuing on the military path will obviously extend this trend probably all the way to Ukraine's total demise.
In Ukraine's defense, there is another dimension to this.
In March/April 2022, the West told the Ukrainians to cease negotiations - even make them impossible as Zelensky made sure to cement in the Ukrainian constitution - and double down on the military path.
Ukraine likely did this because of promises that were made by the West.
Now Ukraine is likely and understandably bitter about the prospect of negotiations in the face of wavering Western support. We basically made them fight on for two years, for nothing.
That's probably why Ukraine will need serious 'nudging' (aka, threatening to cut off support) to force them to change their stance.