You have to have deterrence to keep the peace.
Now creating that deterrence will simply get some people to think that your war-hungry. Well, I'm not. — ssu
Like I said: I agree completely with you on the need for deterrence.
When I say Europe must get its head out of its ass I mean, among other things, that it must spend a minimal amount on maintaining their militaries.
There's no reason Europe shouldn't have a credible deterrent against Russia considering Europe's vastly larger GDP. We actually outspend Russia on defense by something like tenfold.
But, in geopolitics there is something called
the security dilemma - you might be aware of this.
In a nutshell, a nation building their military, even as deterrence, can be seen as a threat to neighboring nations.
This is why I emphasize the foolishness of combining the build up of a deterrent (presumably to avoid war) with economic decoupling, refusal of diplomatic talks and maximalist war rhetoric, etc.
It's a guarantee that in today's context Russia views a European military build-up as a threat, and it will actually bring war closer, instead of deterring it.
That is the fine line Europeans are
completely missing, and the geopolitical amateurism I spoke of.
The solution is extremely simple: combine the creation of a deterrent with
de-escalating rhetoric and with dialogue with Russia.
What I have just laid out is in fact so obvious that I can only conclude that whoever is making these decisions on the side of the West (predominantly the United States) is not pursuing long-term peace and stability. I have made that point several times before, with detailed explanations as to why.
First of all, the globalized World won't profit from something far more devastating than a trade war. — ssu
It would do a number on the world economy of course, but absolute power and wealth matter very little in geopolitics. What matters is
relative power and wealth.
Any great power would happily see global GDP shrink by 10% if it meant they would ascend to a dominant position in the world.
And your forgetting that the US has nothing like NATO in Far East. Don't you remember how SEATO simply collapsed? What are the goddam allies of the US? How close are South Korea and Japan to make some joint effort here? What are US allies there in the Pacific? Australia, and the UK! Not much of an alliance that AUKUS.
This is the peril when you have only nation-to-nation defense agreements, but not a treaty organization with collective defense. What countries would (or could) assist the US, if China went for Taiwan? The Japanese? How much? The South Koreans? They have to deal with North Korea. Likely Japan could give a few destroyers and subs, but likely it would hold it's resources back. And in truth the US is lousy in creating new workable alliances, because it doesn't want to. — ssu
That all of these nations will join in a coalition against China is all but a certainty.
They may not have mutual defense agreements, but their geopolitical goals naturally align in that they all want to contain China. South-Korea, Japan, the entire Anglosphere (the 'Five-Eyes' alliance), perhaps some other nations like Indonesia - they are all nations that exist in the periphery of the world island and therefore share a main strategic challenge. These are far more natural allies to the US than for example Europe is.
Taiwan is essentially the tripwire. If China manages to achieve reunification, it has definitively superceded the US as the dominant global power and every country in the Pacific region realizes the far-reaching consequences of that for themselves.
Look, Putin has all the time wanted to portray Western Europe as a threat Russia. — ssu
Well, haven't the Europeans parroted US-fed rhetoric about wanting to cripple Russia, enact regime change, and break it apart in multiple republics, etc., while simultaneously refusing any dialogue and maintaing a no-compromise position of Ukraine joining NATO?
Honestly, what did the Europeans expect?
It's quite clear from Russia's actions that even after the invasion they had good faith the Europeans would come to their senses and sit down for talks.
Yet, we now know that the Europeans were acting in bad faith as far back as the Minsk Accords.
And I actually agree with the Russians on this. While Europe is on Uncle Sam's leash they're a danger to themselves and others.
A modus vivendi was easily achievable. Even as far forward as March/April 2022 there was still a sensible deal that could have been made. Knowingly or unknowingly, we did everything in our power to make it impossible. Though in the case of the US, it is quite clear they knew exactly what they were doing.
Actually it is guided. Biden was all in favour of the "pivot" to Asia and his administration full of the "pivot people", just like Obama's. But he cannot and couldn't. That's the power of Atlanticism.
For Superpower USA, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is the jewel in it's crown. But if American want to let their hubris go rampant and think their stature in the World doesn't need NATO or any allies (except Israel), I think they are mistaken. If the US really leaves NATO, then Europe will have to reorganize itself. But it's not something where the US wins.
Believe it or not, but I don't think that especially those Americans wanting to "make America great again" don't want the country to be the bigger Canada. Yeah, isolationism sounds great at first, but then when other countries really don't give a fuck, then comes the anger back when people find that isolationism is not a cure-all, just as Brexit wasn't for the Brits.
The simple fact is that the West is stronger together. Something that some people hate. — ssu
The fundamental power struggle of our time is going to take place in the Pacific.
The US cannot maintain its dominant position in both the Pacific and Europe, hence the need to pivot. But the US establishment realizes the consequences for its position in Europe, which is why it is currently trying to "shape the battlefield" and mitigate the damage done to US interests when it is forced to pivot away from Europe.
Europe in terms of its economic, intellectual and human potential is way too big for US to maintain its artificial status as suzerain. which is why Europe will simply break free from the US orbit once the US is forced to divert its attention elsewhere. It will be good for Europe in the long-term, because we will be able to pursue an independent geopolitical strategy that actually benefits us.
What the US or Europe
want is hardly a factor in this. These are geopolitical realities - forces of nature, almost - that they cannot ignore (though admittedly, Europe has been a king at ignoring geopolitical realities).
If the US fails to pivot, it loses the Pacific. Once China breaks out of the island chains, the US no longer holds the trump card of being able to cut off China's sea trade, and it will be curtains for the peripheral nations as two thirds of the world island will be united under a Sino-Russian alliance.