Foreign interference in Ukraine’s election
— Jakub Kalenský, Laura Galante, Maksym Eristavi, John E Herbst, Geysha González · The Ukraine Election Task Force · May 15, 2019
Elmar Brok made some statements in
2016, that remain pertinent.
Regarding straightforward
threats to Russia (topics
emphasized):
▸ As far as I can tell,
democratization (transparency, freedom, human rights, independent election monitors,
bona fide indicators, the usual) would
not pose a threat to the common Russian, though it could pose a threat to certain others (not many) in Russian society. Overall, I'm guessing this would bring prosperity (and safety/security) to more Russians over time and would go some way to increase trust.
▸ Also as far as I can tell,
in general, there's
no particular threat to the common Russian, except perhaps from the Kremlin, which is internal to Russia. There's a chance that some Russians abroad have faced discrimination/threats, which is unreasonable for merely being Russian.
▸ Sanctions/embargoes pose a threat. Surely the likes of free (but legal) trade would be quite beneficial to Russian society, whereas more isolation (or imposed economic starvation) is more deleterious. Presumably then, not doing what caused the sanctions, is perceived as bad/worse (or threats in plural) by the sanctioned. So, we have to ask what caused the sanctions, and what consequences there might be of not doing what caused them, which involves sifting through whatever material.
•
International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
•
International sanctions during the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022-
•
Sanctions against Russia
▸ If Russia were to accrue
significant debt, then that could be a threat of sorts. Maybe not a high threat as such, might depend on creditors.
▸ An
invasion of Russia pose a straightforward, head-on threat. We then have to ask if anyone is lined up to invade Russia, or has threatened credibly to invade. Say, is anyone
in a position to grab Russian land, and interested in trying to do so? Somewhat similarly, anyone motivated and geared up to outright level Russia (not setting foot therein), without much danger to themselves, could pose a threat.
▸ Internal
strife in Russia possibly pose a
threat, depending. If the strifers wanted something similar to what the Ukrainians wanted/want (
Euromaidan +
Dignity), then it's possible that a threat would only be to some or few Russians (internally). External parties could have an interest in trying to sow
division within Russia; surely
Ukraine is motivated to try undermining the present Kremlin's power (as a countermeasure to the invasion).
▸ Imposed, concerted (effective,
Russophobic) anti-Russification/other-fication efforts in Russia, would be a
cultural/identity genocide, though the
largest country in the world already has a few ethnocultural groups. So there's a threat. This is the type of threat the Kremlin has enacted on occupied Ukraine (and some other places). As of typing, there's no indication/evidence that Russia is struggling with such a threat.
Homosexuality isn't that, despite the Kremlin's efforts and legislation.
I'm sure I've missed some. Please feel free to fill in the blanks. For a more complete round-up, factors or possible moves in the other direction, to benefit Russian society should be added/compared.
FYI, in terms of population numbers, here are some comparisons (increasing order):
Germany + Poland < Russia < Germany + France < Russia + Belarus < Germany + France + Finland < Germany + Poland + Ukraine