, well, crazy is easy enough to come by. :)

• Gypsy curse- my friend might be cursed by a rock? (Yahoo, ≈ 2009) (other archive)

• Nigeria police hold 'robber' goat (BBC, 2009)

Yeah, watch out for those evil rocks. And goats.

Felshtinsky speculates:

Putin's days numbered as FSB in process of choosing next Russian president
^{— Joel Day · Daily Express · Aug 30, 2023}

The FSB controls and rules Russia. The entire process of the Russian Presidential election and the election computer which calculates the vote is by law controlled by the FSB.
In 2021, Russia passed a law allowing remote voting. It might be good in most countries but not for Russia: it will lead to a situation where the FSB will have the ability to add votes of the people who didn't come to vote in order to choose their favourite candidate.
My point is that it will be the FSB who choose the next president of Russia.
They did it with Putin in 1999. When [Boris] Yeltsin resigned, by law, the Prime Minister became President of Russia. He has technically been in that position ever since.
If we see suddenly that the Prime Minister is changed to somebody else, let's say Nikolai Patrushev (the secretary of the Security Council of Russia), this will be an indication that they're making Patrushev the President.
I think they may try and create this tradition of using these FSB officials. They did it in 2000 with Putin and have held power for 23 years, and I believe they will try to keep it for as long as possible — they will try to keep it forever. — Yuri Felshtinsky

Whatever the case, I doubt Putin is out for the time being. Looking for a successor is plausible enough, though. Ough Patrushev.

(all subject to change, incomplete, ...)

Being
• a being often refers to a (possibly supposed) sentient lifeform
• being in general can more or less be synonymous with existence, whatever is, real or imaginary/fictional alike, known or unknown alike, has no complement

Awareness
• self-awareness is included in awareness, meta-cognition, awareness of something
• usage overlaps with consciousness

Consciousness
• self-conscious and self-aware differ in usage, the former is about how one thinks others perceive oneself
• part of some minds, sometimes (I think it might be a necessary part, in some uses anyway)

Thinking
• mulling things over, contemplating, reasoning, peripherally or concentrating, recalling something
• part of some minds, sometimes (rarely in certain cases :grin:)

Time
• Time and such (Nov 11, 2017), might need an update

Mind
Body

↑ known cases, exemplifiable

Perception
• "if anything significant differentiates dreams hallucinations etc, and perception, then it's the perceived"
• the self part of interaction with the perceived
• part of some minds, sometimes
• also related to phenomenology

(...)

The Western world needs Trump to be saved:

Hungary’s Orbán urges US to ‘call back Trump’ to end Ukraine war in Tucker Carlson interview
^{— Bela Szandelszky · AP · Aug 30, 2023}

Call back Trump. … Trump is the man who can save the Western world. — Viktor Orbán

So there. :wink:

You know who put the Taliban in charge? I'm sure you do. — Tzeentch

But that didn't answer the query. You just took an opportunity to point fingers at your favorite enemy instead. :shrug: (How about you ask a sizeable percentage of the Afghan population?)

[...] the US [...] — Tzeentch

You know, that's why I asked @yebiga (on a few occasions) to fire up a fresh thread on that:

↪yebiga, did you ever get to whipping up a fresh thread on that stuff?
(I didn't notice if you did anyway. But please keep the p0m0 at a tolerable level. :smile:)
May 18, 2023, May 24, 2023, May 26, 2023 — Jun 21, 2023

Too bad they never did. What about you? After all, there's so much to say (as you've shown), so much discussion-worthy, yes? (you won't have to look over your shoulders, be interesting :up: like an exposition)

Fvcksakes, it's 2023.

Saudi man receives death penalty for posts online, latest case in wide-ranging crackdown on dissent
^{— Jon Gambrell · AP · Aug 30, 2023}

Ironically enough, some air has been breathed into NATO with the moves against Ukraine.

Same old in Moscow:

'I stand by my opinion': Russian on trial for critical Ukraine interview
^{— AFP and RFE/RL · Aug 30, 2023}

I stand by my opinion. Nothing has changed. — Yuri Kokhovets (37)

I did not like it so I contacted the Investigative Committee. — Radik Gabitov

But the following month, charges against him were requalified into "spreading fakes against the army" under a law adopted shortly after the Kremlin launched the offensive. The case against Kokhovets comes as thousands of Russians have been detained while troops battle in Ukraine. According to OVD-Info, some 20,000 people across the country have been detained since February 2022 for protesting the offensive. Almost all Russian opposition figures have fled the country since the start of the offensive. Most of those who stayed are in prison. This week alone, Russian courts are examining 59 political cases, the monitor said.

Obviously not, both for the Afgani's sake and [...] — Tzeentch

What Afghans? The Taliban you mean? Check this Aug 27, 2023 comment. (Hmm Might be better to move any further comments on this to the/some other thread.)

The US is [...] — Tzeentch

In all honesty, I tend to be more concerned about an "authoritarian empire" than a "democratic empire" :D (also see "Same old in Moscow" above and, well, more comments in this thread than I care to dig out).

:D Well, it's been a while since the US grabbed land. (I'm wondering if they should have stayed in Afghanistan, what do you think?) By the way, some 3% of the US' annual defense budget has been spent on helping Ukraine against the Krempire. Oddly enough, the Ukrainians have strongly gone with the US "empire" and the EU, rejecting the Kremlinian "non-empire". What gives?

Can you define a word without just using more words...?
You can find "stampede" and "elephant" in a dictionary, which, in turn, uses more words.
Yet, there are no stampeding elephants in the dictionary.
Dictionaries (and their definitions) have circularities.
Board games on the other hand... :)

Are those organized hackers Russian these days?

FBI and European partners seize major malware network in blow to global cybercrime
^{— Frank Bajak, Stefanie Dazio · AP · Aug 29, 2023}

Cybersecurity researchers say they are believed to be in Russia and/or other former Soviet states

the far-flung mostly Russian-speaking criminals

Who are Anonymous Sudan? Hacker group behind behind Twitter outage mocks Elon Musk’s rebrand
^{— Saqib Shah · Evening Standard · Aug 29, 2023}

cybersecurity experts have traced its roots to a murky ecosystem of Russian cybercriminals

the experts said the group appeared to belong to a coterie of Russian hacktivist collectives with names such as KillNet and UserSec

Well, the Anonymous hacker group has attacked Russia and taken credit.

What would we ever do without a good conspiracy theory :)

Body-Double? Wagner Group Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin May Not Have Been on Plane That Crashed, Says Aviation Expert
^{— Joshua Wilburn · Knewz · Aug 23, 2023}
Yevgeny Prigozhin is alive and plotting his revenge on Putin after body double was killed in plane assassination plot, Russian analyst claims
^{— Will Stewart · Daily Mail · Aug 29, 2023}
Wagner Boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is Still Alive and Plotting His Revenge on Vladimir Putin, Russian Analyst Claims
^{— Connor Surmonte · RadarOnline · Aug 29, 2023}

As an aside, the Ukrainian counteroffensive have been propped up considerably by the press (and others), resulting in expectations (timewise in particular), and perhaps pressure, without consulting involved tacticians on the ground, relevant facts, etc. It's not entertainment; it's people fighting to free themselves from crap that's come up in the thread, struggling to go EU, whatever it all is. In some ways, the propping-up might work against the defense efforts. I suppose we might ask what a general (deaf to that press) would do in the current situation, with our limited facts.

, yeah, high cost of being friends with Prigozhin (or sharing some of his ideas), including for the Kremlin, but it seems they took Surovikin off the board.

, 28 times the country size and 4 times the population are reliable; 4 times the troops in Ukraine is rather doubtful. Also, Wagner loss. Russia has (surely had) a comprehensive stock of artillery and rockets (GlobalFirepower). They've used (some of) it generously. Lots of rockets and drones downed. Ukraine is getting some help. ← hardly hopium

, I was commenting on these, mostly the former (emphasis mine by the way):

The Russian forces now outnumber the Ukrainians significantly. That should tell you enough about the current balance of power. — Tzeentch

vastly larger manpower pool — Tzeentch

How many Russian and Ukrainian troops do you think there are in Ukraine at the moment?

There's that vastly again, though about firepower this time:

the Russians have vastly more firepower than the Ukrainians — Tzeentch

The Russian forces now outnumber the Ukrainians significantly. That should tell you enough about the current balance of power. — Tzeentch

vastly larger manpower pool — Tzeentch

Well, some more numbers... Russia (largest country in the world) is about 28 times the size of Ukraine, GDP is about a factor 15 (not per capita), population is about 4 times larger. Ukraine has been and is receiving a good deal of help: civil, arms. It's unclear exactly what, but, likely, Russia has been / is receiving some stuff from China, Iran, North Korea, maybe others. In terms of home production, unlike Russia, Ukraine hasn't really had that much (though they've been inventive with drones and such, including old stuff), but are reportedly working with Rheinmetall, Baykar, and others to set up Ukrainian production. Sanctions has some effects on Russia's arms production.

Anyway, I haven't seen indications that there are significantly more Russian than Ukrainian fighters in Ukraine at the moment. But the Kremlin has spent a significant amount of shells and rockets (and troops) in 17 or 18 months of warring. Reports suggest much more unity among Ukrainians (and hate towards the invaders).

↑ I think most of this stuff is repetition

The media you keep linking — Tzeentch

FMI, do you mean GlobalFirepower? ISW? FOCUS online? Another one?

Some rough estimates of troop sizes ...

Russia
Pre-invasion at border: 169,000 - 190,000 ^{military + paramilitary + 34,000 separatist militias, 4, 5}
Pre-invasion total: 900,000 military ⁶, 554,000 paramilitary ⁶
In February 2023: + 200,000 newly mobilised soldiers ⁷
In May 2023: 300,000+ active personnel in Ukraine ⁸

Ukraine
Pre-invasion total: 196,600 military ⁹, 102,000 paramilitary ⁹
July 2022 total: up to 700,000 ¹⁰

, if you have access to Wikipedia, you can check False or misleading statements by Donald Trump. It's one angle anyway.

Axe writes:

As Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Gains Momentum, Russia Is Deploying Some Of Its Last Good Reserves
^{— David Axe · Forbes · Aug 27, 2023}

There was some chatter among Russian military bloggers echoing Axe, but who knows what's going on. There have also been rumors of TOS-1A MLRS deployments and of Russian command abandoning troops around Dnipro. I guess time will (or might) tell.

Russian Neo-Nazi Paramilitary Group Issues Putin an Ultimatum: ISW ^{(also ↑ Aug 26, 2023)
— Andrew Stanton · Newsweek · Aug 27, 2023}
Rusich Group
^{— Wikipedia}

The spiraling cost of war means growing economic pain for Russia
^{— Clare Sebastian, Hanna Ziady, Anna Cooban, Tim Lister, Olesya Dmitracova · CNN · Aug 28, 2023}

Hard to tell what's going on with Capo dei capi.

In follow-up to this Aug 23, 2023 comment:

The Ukraine war, propaganda-style, is coming to Russian movie screens. Will people watch?
^{— Dasha Litvinova, Jake Coyle · AP · Aug 28, 2023}

On cue.

FYI, GlobalFirepower has various military metrics giving some indications of relative strengths/weaknesses for different countries.

Russia ranks high (worldwide) on tanks, self-propelled artillery, towed artillery, rocket projectors, and also aircraft fleet, attack aircraft, attack helicopter fleet, which is, apart from population size, pretty much what Ukraine is fighting (with help from others). However, Ukraine's helpers could probably establish air superiority relatively easily ^{(also Jul 27, 2023; Jul 24, 2023; Jul 5, 2023)}.

2023 Military Strength Ranking is an overall assessment based on 60 factors.

How do we know there is a behind us? — Darkneos

:D Might just turn around and take a look. Has this ever failed you? (Would you expect something more than that?)

Frontlines move here then there.

Ukrainian forces now appear within striking distance of the next series of prepared Russian defensive positions, which may be weaker than the previous set of Russian defenses but still pose a significant challenge. (ISW · Aug 26, 2023)

Jetzt kämpft sich die Ukraine durch den schwierigsten Teil der Front (via google translate)
^{— FOCUS online · Aug 27, 2023}

Not all of the something-industrial complex are purely evil. ;)

Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?
^{— Andrew Moseman, Sergey Paltsev · MIT Climate Portal · Oct 13, 2022}

Yes: although electric cars' batteries make them more carbon-intensive to manufacture than gas cars, they more than make up for it by driving much cleaner under nearly any conditions.

BMW To Construct $108 Million Battery Logistics Facility
^{— Andrew Lambrecht · InsideEVs · Aug 27, 2023}

BMW says that by 2026, a third of its vehicles sold will be fully electric.

:up:

, yeah, it's crazy. :/
The Euromaidan protests started in Nov 2013, just prior to Russia grabbing Crimea.

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations,[ 91 ] and the influence of oligarchs.[ 92 ]

In Feb 2014, the Russo-Ukrainian war started, and Russia grabbed Crimea.
Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in Jul 2014.
Almost a decade of warring as of typing.
(In this context, I might use "Putin's Russia" rather than just "Russia", but that may just be me.)

What's up with that? Is he just plain lying or something?

Donald Trump’s ‘round of 67’ at Bedminster Club Championship has fans rolling on the floor laughing (Aug 27, 2023)

They'd likely have preferred US (and whatever) presence staying in Afghanistan:

Female Afghan students stopped by Taliban on way to Dubai
^{— Camilla Alcini, Somayeh Malekian · ABC · Aug 24, 2023}

:/

A bit of mass hysteria, too:

Taliban Suspend Swedish Activities in Afghanistan Over Quran
^{— Ayaz Gul · VOA · Jul 11, 2023}

In a radio interview, Danilov opines:

Russia's fragmentation has begun. In the near future, a lot of interesting things will happen there. Let's wait and see. You shouldn't touch something when it's that hot. We should wait until it cools down a bit. Then we'll understand all the events that took place. Prigozhin wasn't crazy. The people who gave him the order to march on Moscow finally stopped him. — Oleksiy Danilov (Aug 26, 2023)

I'm not convinced that someone else in particular ordered Prigozhin to initiate their "march of justice". If enough of his people complained repeatedly (and/or died), then that might have given him a nudge in that direction.

Wagner boss Prigozhin says his soldiers won’t sign contracts with Russian army
^{— Wilhelmine Preussen · POLITICO · Jun 11, 2023}
Wagner fighters are furious and vowing vengeance after their leader Prigozhin's presumed death in a plane crash
^{— Thibault Spirlet · Business Insider · Aug 24, 2023}

The first time was when I phoned him and negotiations (were taking) place while they were marching on Moscow. I told him: ‘Yevgeny, do you understand that you will doom your people and will perish yourself?’ He had just come back from the front. On an impulse he said: ‘I will die then, damn it![’] — Alexander Lukashenko (Aug 26, 2023)

The Belarusian leader said that during second time he spoke with Prigozhin he warned him “in no uncertain terms to watch it.” — Alex Stambaugh, Katharina Krebs, Heather Chen · CNN · Aug 26, 2023

I said: ‘If you are afraid of something, I will talk to President (Vladimir) Putin and we will extract you to Belarus. We guarantee full security to you in Belarus.’ And credit where credit is due, Yevgeny Prigozhin has never asked me to separately pay attention to security matters. — Alexander Lukashenko (Aug 26, 2023)

Says he "cannot imagine that Putin did it, that he is to blame" but suggests someone did, is to blame, though.

Putin orders Wagner fighters to sign oath of allegiance
^{— Andrew Osborn, Guy Faulconbridge, Kirsten Donovan · Reuters · Aug 26, 2023}

Putin's introduction of a mandatory oath for employees of Wagner and other private military contractors was a clear move to bring such groups under tighter state control. The decree, published on the Kremlin website, obliges anyone carrying out work on behalf of the military or supporting what Moscow calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine to swear a formal oath of allegiance to Russia. Described in the decree as a step to forge the spiritual and moral foundations of the defence of Russia, the wording of the oath includes a line in which those who take it promise to strictly follow the orders of commanders and senior leaders.
[...]
Russia's Baza news outlet, which has good sources among law enforcement agencies, has reported that investigators are focusing on a theory that one or two bombs may have been planted on board the plane.

Prigozhin and Utkin (+ 8 more) down, Surovikin out of commission, Zhidko gone by the way — actors in a gangsterdom writ large.

WATCH: People lay flowers for Wagner founder Prigozhin outside HQ in St Petersburg
^{— Euronews · Aug 24, 2023 · 1m}



Prigozhin plane crash: What's next after Wagner Group leader's apparent demise?
^{— Shannon K Crawford · ABC · Aug 25, 2023}

Maybe Putin will try to install a trusted ruthless gangster somehow. As long as they can get fighting and money going.

*hah* I have a feeling this will p¡ss off the Kremlin, and I haven't seen the trailer. :D
"CIA Propaganda!" "Hollywood Lies!"
Then the crew might be sanctioned, it'll be banned anywhere within Putin's reach (except he'll watch it), and he'll tell the FSB to look for someone to create a "counter-movie".

Sean Penn's Ukraine documentary 'Superpower' premieres at Berlin International Film Festival
^{— Mark Armstrong, AP · Euronews · Feb 18, 2023}
Sean Penn's 'Immersive' Ukraine War Documentary Previewed in New Trailer
^{— Kimberlee Speakman · People · Aug 23, 2023}
Superpower (2023)
^{— IMDb}

, these two sentences have a kind of...similarity to them... :)

• Prigozhin died in plane crash
• Putin had Prigozhin killed

Destroy this, destroy that:

This night alone, the export capacity of the port of Izmail was reduced by 15%. Russia is systematically hitting grain silos and warehouses to stop agricultural exports. In total, 270,000 tonnes of grain have been destroyed in a month of attacks on ports. — Oleksandr Kubrakov · Reuters · Aug 23, 2023

Four educational workers were killed and four other people were hurt in a Russian attack on a school in the city of Romny in northeastern Ukraine on Wednesday, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.
“The school building was destroyed, and this is just before the school year, which unfortunately will never start for some,” Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Telegram. — Reuters via Al Arabiya · Aug 23, 2023

Yet, the same old self-victimizing crud:

Russia wants to end war unleashed by West in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin at BRICS
^{— Sahil Sinha · India Today · Aug 23, 2023}

↑ Script got old some time ago. Give it up already.

Opinion: Russia’s neighbors have a message for Putin
^{— Frida Ghitis · CNN · Aug 23, 2023}

Latvia’s bravado is made possible by the safety of belonging to NATO. [...] As in Estonia, Russia’s 21^st century assault on Ukraine brought echoes of Russia’s 20^th century subjugation of Latvia. [...] When I asked her [Galina Domenikovska (53)] about former President Donald Trump, she winced, and told me she is afraid he will come back to office.

Some share Domenikovska's concern. :)

Poland’s leader says Russia’s moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, shifting regional security
^{— AP · Aug 22, 2023}

Russia said it would maintain control over those it sends to Belarus.

More or less Russian forward bases in Belarus. As someone has noted, the Kremlin is confident that Lukashenko will maintain power/grip for the foreseeable future. (*psst* now is a cool time for Belarus to swiftly oust Lukashenko :wink:)

Would the Kremlin be capable of handling a free Belarus while warring on Ukraine?

If the Belarusians were determined, I have some doubts they could maintain "two fronts", but they'd surely try/intervene and their confidence suggests they're deeply embedded in Belarusian power structures already.

‘Silence is killing me:’ A firefighter on Ukraine’s frontlines yearns to be back at work
^{— Kostyantin Gak, Nick Paton Walsh, Brice Laine · CNN · Aug 22, 2023}

I agree there are normal adequate people anywhere, on each side. But I will hate them until the end of my life. — Dima

More of that hate :/

, that's roughly the story of John Chau in 2018, just not Africa but the Sentinelese. So, not hypothetical.

I suppose you can't doubt that something exists.
Not exactly informative, though, hardly a fantastic epistemic discovery/development or grand philosophical innovation.

Can you doubt that this is English?
Not really, which is a bit more informative.
I suppose, however unlikely, that an alien could happen to find it a description of a comet they're in the vicinity of, not knowing English in the first place.

This: Thoughts therefore exist. (← A more accurate version of cogito ergo sum.)

Would it not be a matter of who voters vote for?
That's assuming voters are most of "the people".
Of course voters can be poorly or well informed or be invested in some way, and candidates have varying resources for campaigning, and resourceful haters can launch smearing campaigns, etc, which can muddle things up.
Yet, suppose a majority decides to vote for Jane Doe 'cuz she cool (like the best of Jefferson, Lincoln, JFK, Carter), or something.
Jane Doe is among "the people" and voters, not somehow apart or isolated therefrom.
Barring something odd, Jane Doe would then become president, and could push those cool things, because the voters picked her and employed her to make it so.
In principle at least, voters decide, so that's where such powers lie, and where efforts could be directed?
Government leadership (like Jane Doe) has the responsibility of doing the (cool) things they said they'd do, right?

Increasing wildfires are likely partially + cumulatively caused by climate change, and are bound to have a climatic effect in turn.

As the wildfires in Canada continue to shroud much of the midwest in a thick haze of smoke, New Yorkers are preparing yet again for the smoke to make its way further east. — The Guardian · Jun 27, 2023

Based on data from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, there are 480 active fires in Canada: 252 are out of control, 77 are being held in place, and 151 are under control. — GPS World · Jun 28, 2023

Smoke from Canadian wildfires has reached Europe — Euronews · Jun 28, 2023

Data also shows that Canada has experienced 11,598 fires during the first seven months of this year alone. This is a 705% increase compared to fires detected over the same period of the previous six years. Canada is currently battling the country’s worst wildfire season on record, with more than 10 million ha of land burned, which is said to increase in the coming weeks. — GPS World · Aug 4, 2023

Lots of :fire: this year. Will this become a new norm of sorts?

Copernicus EFFIS (interactive)
NASA FIRMS (interactive)

In continuation from an Aug 17, 2023 comment...

Bulgarian minister: 'We cannot rule out' clash between NATO, Russia in Black Sea
^{— Martin Fornusek · The Kyiv Independent · Aug 18, 2023}

We cannot rule out such an option. We are working to prevent it. Russia constantly provokes NATO. — Todor Tagarev

... Sea, ground (e.g. Wagner), air, public statements.

:/

Just another day in Ukraine.

Seven dead including six-year-old girl as Russian missile hits center of Ukraine’s Chernihiv city
^{— Maria Kostenko, Sarah Dean, Sophie Tanno · CNN · Aug 19, 2023}

A Russian missile hit right in the center of the city, in our Chernihiv. A square, the polytechnic university, a theater. — Zelenskyy

Ukrainian air force reportedly shot down 15 of 17 Iranian-made Shahed drones overnight. ("sitting ducks with some repellent")

Not military target.
Plain intimidation (however deadly)? Spite?
One target-picking method has been reported before: Jun 28, 2023.


(nah, don't expect insurance to cover the damaged cars :grin:)

@NOS4A2

Some have suggested going more or less in the opposite direction than what you suggest.
That's assuming you suggest no state, government, taxes, all that, which I might have misunderstood.
For example, in order to deal with climate change, pollution, environmental concerns, etc, worldwide cooperation (or policing) of some sort might be needed.
Then again, I'm not quite sure what your idea is (apart from some things you seemingly detest).

By the way, individuals may live, say, 100 years (optimistically); outside of that, it's not really meaningful to speak of them (me) reaping the fruit of their (my) labor, or ownership of anything.
Subsequent generations may however "reap the fruit" of climate change, pollution, etc.
Would such concerns be irrelevant in the name of radical individualism (anarchy of sorts)?

2,001 respondents throughout non-occupied Ukraine aged 18 or older took part in the survey

Analytical report based on the results of WAR, PEACE, VICTORY, AND FUTURE SURVEY
^{— OPORA · Jul 27, 2023}

78% of Ukrainians share the idea that all Russians are accountable for the aggression against Ukraine :/ (bad, and differs from how Zelenskyy has pointed at Putin + team explicitly — growing hate)

70% of Ukrainians consider it crucial for all the territories to be liberated from the enemy to call it a victory in the war

57% of Ukrainians want to punish everyone who was directly involved in planning, approving, arranging, and committing the war crimes

68% of Ukrainians think that the prosecution and punishment of the criminals should be subject to the national and international laws

95% of Ukrainians expect that the state will insist on Russia compensating for the losses caused during the war

40% of Ukrainians believe that reparations will actually be paid (that seems optimistic, yet many Ukrainians are optimistic in other questions as well)

Drennan opines:

Only one thing will bring Putin to ceasefire: Crimea
^{— Patrick Drennan · The Hill · Aug 17, 2023}

At least a fairly straightforward account of what's been going on.
Worth adding that Stalin (in office 1922-1952) paved the way rather effectively by replacing locals with Russians in Crimea (called ethnic genocide/cleansing by some). ^{1, 2, 3, 4}
Incidentally, Mearsheimer and Drennan agree that Crimea is important to Putin.