Chilling down back then apparently didn't go over too well.

Russia’s Potential Drawdown from Kyiv Fractures Pro-War Voices at Home
— James Beardsworth; The Moscow Times; Mar 30, 2022

I myself was in a state of panic yesterday. Today I feel better. The night was accompanied by heavy bombardment of Ukrainian targets throughout the country, from Lviv to Donetsk. — Alexander Prokhanov

We will not make concessions, Medinsky made a mistake, what he did was not right. — Ramzan Kadyrov

The submission (if not genocidal) tendencies aren't just Patrushev, Putin, and those folk.
This article was bad enough to get its own Wikipedia entry:

• What Russia Should Do with Ukraine (Wikipedia)
• What should Russia do with Ukraine? (RIA Novosti; Apr 3, 2022) ^{english via google translate}

What's wrong with these people?

, fortunately, Ukrainian food went out since April. Close call recently that the Black Sea Fleet would block them again, but I think it's OK now.

On the other hand, just think about if all war efforts throughout were transformed into supporting those 8 million children... (Some might even regain faith in mankind.) :smile: "And that's why :point: you should vote @jorndoe in the next election." :grin:

Are Iran and North Korea now in a proxy war against Ukraine? Well, effectively against Ukraine, though intended against Ukraine's supporters, I guess?

• Do Putin and Kim have an 'arms for horses' deal? Russia sends North Korea 30 thoroughbred horses by train after Pyongyang shipped Moscow artillery shells in bid to bolster its bungled Ukraine invasion (Daily Mail; Nov 5, 2022)

• Foreign fighters in Ukraine speak out on their willingness to serve: 'I had to go': (ABC News; Nov 6, 2022)

, Putin's Russia sure regressed. :/ Not all Russians (I'd say), but the autocrat circle is in control.

Russia has legitimate security concerns about NATO setting up shop on the other side of its 1,000-mile-plus border with Ukraine. — It’s Time to Bring Russia and Ukraine to the Negotiating Table · Charles A Kupchan · Nov 2, 2022

Sure they do, sure.

Putin frames this "concern" in dire terms (just like Patrushev), employing it as a justification for war. Been trying to figure out exactly what existential threat NATO was/is to Russia, but came up short, for the most part anyway — here.

Ironically, Putin's Russia has proven an actual present existential threat to Ukraine instead (to which the Ukrainians + support are responding). And, until they've taken over all of Ukraine, the supposed NATO threat remains. With Finland + Sweden it may now grow? Yet, if they were to take over all of Ukraine, then they'd become an increased substantial threat to others by the same thinking (Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia come to mind at first) — not that they weren't before, including nuclear-wise (2018). Putin's activities have all by themselves put Russia/ns at greater risk. See where this is going?

I suppose Putin and Patrushev might come to terms with the fact that any trust there may have been is lost, Poles, Romanians, many others. Simply telling Ukrainians that they're Russian doesn't seem the way to rectify. Let the warring shamming propaganda slide?

it appears to be that the US wants to prolong this war to "weaken Russia". — _db

Maybe that's become a factor? Maybe most want Putin to leave the Ukrainians alone, and quit it already?

• U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia (The Washington Post; Nov 5, 2022)

(Public talks have a chance of exposing bullshit, though.)

Much like Putin's statements, some "ideological" backgrounds, plans, and such were set out by Nikolai Patrushev:

• Patrushev: West has created an empire of lies, involving the destruction of Russia (Rossiyskaya Gazeta; Apr 26, 2022) ^{english via google translate}

A couple or so continents are out to get Russia, they're more or less fascist- or Nazism-bound. The victim, Putin's Russia, will set it right. [Have nukes, by the way.]

Egbert Fortuin offers an analysis of some of the topics:

Ultimately, the Russian propaganda is part of the concept Russkij Mir ‘Russian World’, where Russian language and culture are a means to restore Putin’s Russian sphere of influence from Soviet times or earlier. This culminated in the war that started in 2022. The war in Ukraine is not about language, but the status of Russian in Ukraine has been abused as a weapon, one of the factors leading up to the actual war crimes by the Russians against Ukrainians, both Ukrainian speaking and Russian speaking, that can be witnessed today. Whether these war crimes should be classed as genocide or not has still to be investigated. However, it is clear that the dehumanization of Ukrainians in the Russian propaganda, including the use of the terms “Nazi”, “fascist” and “genocide” by the Russians, has contributed to the atrocities that the Russians have committed and are still committing in Ukraine. — Ukraine commits genocide on Russians: the term “genocide” in Russian propaganda • Egbert Fortuin • Sep 7, 2022

• As one of Vladimir Putin’s closest advisers on Ukraine, Nicolai Patrushev spreads disinformation and outlandish conspiracy theories (The Conversation; Jun 7, 2022)

Talks negotiations diplomacy would be great. :up: (suggestion: a neutral intact, otherwise free sovereign, Ukraine)

• China's Xi meets Germany's Scholz, urges Ukraine peace talks (CTV News; Nov 4, 2022)
• The Biden administration is encouraging Ukraine to support peace talks with Russia nearly 9 months after invasion began, WaPo reports (Business Insider; Nov 6, 2022)

What do you say to someone like Patrushev, though?

, say, propaganda is around for a reason, lots of words are intended to or can influence, yes? Enculturation/indoctrination could be examples. Otherwise language would be kind of useless. :) I suppose, between words and subsequent actions, we might assign credit or blame, in whatever ways. If that's your drift?

I'd still like to know exactly what threat NATO was/is to Russia.

^{Some Putin quotes: Dec 23, 2021, Feb 24, 2022, ≈ Oct 26, 2022, Oct 27, 2022
Some earlier comments: Oct 16, 2022, Oct 18, 2022, Oct 28, 2022}

So, not nuclear really.

But maybe foreign troops close to Russia's borders. Maybe just foreign (NATO) troops in the host country? Albeit stationed for defense, they could be seen as threatening.

@Tzeentch seems to suggest that Putin's geo-objectives require control of Crimea. (Then in case of war with Ukraine, Sevastopol or a base alone wouldn't do?) Maybe or maybe not to the extent of non-control being an existential threat? A bit up in the air. Doesn't depend on NATO specifically, though. Rather, NATO would instead have gotten in the way of Russia grabbing Crimea, and the following invasion.

^{• Putin Admits Annexation of Crimea Put in Motion Weeks Before Referendum (Haaretz; Mar 9, 2015)
• Putin reveals secrets of Russia's Crimea takeover plot (BBC; Mar 9, 2015)
• With Trump on his side, Putin admits Russia staged the ‘referendum’ to annex Crimea (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group; Jul 17, 2018)
• From 'Not Us' To 'Why Hide It?': How Russia Denied Its Crimea Invasion, Then Admitted It (RFE/RL; Feb 26, 2019)
• Putin Admits He’s Worried NATO Could Help Ukraine Get Crimea Back (The Daily Beast; Feb 1, 2022)
• Putin admits Ukraine invasion is an imperial war to “return” Russian land (Atlantic Council; Jun 10, 2022)}

What else, though?

As a primary justification for war, this stuff seems to matter, yes?

^{On the strategic (chess game, objectives) side, SophistiCat posted something; not much else lately.}

If Putin is to be replaced, then preferably not by Medvedev or Volodin (or worse).

^{• ‘I hate them’: Dmitry Medvedev’s journey from liberal to anti-western hawk (The Guardian; Aug 1, 2022)
• Ex-president deletes post claiming Vladimir Putin will invade Georgia and Kazakhstan (Mirror; Aug 2, 2022)
• War in Ukraine Has Sparked a New Race to Succeed Putin (Carnegie; Aug 4, 2022)
• “Whoever resists will be destroyed” State Duma’s Volodin threatens Ukraine with “tougher response to terrorist attacks” (Euro Weekly; Oct 13, 2022)
• Russian lawmakers vet new bill against LGBTQ 'propaganda' (ABC; Oct 27, 2022)}

What to expect?

^{(Will they be sending homosexuals to "conversion therapy/camps"? Jail? ...?)}

, hasn't verbal fire mostly been directed at Russian politics and Putin + team? Rather than all Russians I mean?

, you think a chaotic Russian "Viva la revolución" is likely here? (☢ Kinzhal better not fall into the wrong hands)

Might not ethnic Russians in Donbas want to become part of Russia to help — Isaac

Don't know. You really think that's realistic (or a game-changer)? There hasn't been much indication that the autocrat circle is going away. (Hmm I kind of like the other potential development, the Russian justice system pulling weight, it could work wonders for trust too.) But it's all conjecture and idle speculation.

the Ukrainian government have banned opposition parties, censored opposition press — Isaac

For the time being, I'm guessing (conjecture on my part) that it's a (perhaps panicky) response to old news

Putin's Empire The Russian Federation has rolled their submission-machine out

All the bombing killing destroying shamming re-culturating

Since 2014, Donetsk + Luhansk (≈ Donbas) have been an organized Russian staging area, and Crimea was grabbed

After all, Ukraine is facing a real, present threat, analogous to the more hypothetical threat where Putin victimizes his Russia ...

And for our country, this is ultimately a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people. And this is not an exaggeration: it is true. This is a real threat not just to our interests, but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty. — Putin · Feb 24, 2022

And in the end, if nothing at all can be done, the aim is the same: to destroy them, to wipe them off the political map.
[...]
Russia is simply upholding its right to exist and to develop freely. — Putin · Oct 27, 2022

And that real, present threat is at Putin's hands, at that. Anyway, Ukraine + supporters have now become a bigger problem for Russia(ns). By the way, Russo-hate has grown in Ukraine, around here we don't particularly hate Russians.

, don't know, except, in principle, no. And "inexorable"? Hope not.

In principle at least, if everyone would just oust the autocrat circle, then new paths would open up. Not likely, could turn wickedly chaotic too.

Better if the Russian justice system was to weigh in for real — here's more conjecture on my part — and charge them with fraud, abuse of power, corruption, (attempted) murder, threats (cause fear of harm), obstruction, shamming, covering things up, illegal money/other acquirements/handling, whatever, for all to see, giving leeway to moderate voices and a process of real and transparent democracy, then things would look up. Could that happen? Well, in principle, yes. How likely...?

But this is speculation, the earlier comment was more like observation.

Putin's Russia went regressive, downhill.
Not really the best; all those nukes and Kinzhal don't help either, and at the fingertips of a creepy autocrat?
Having gone down that trajectory matters — we take it into consideration when making assessments, important people use it when making decisions.
All the bombing killing destroying shamming re-culturating really doesn't help.
I guess some don't want to get dragged along downhill, and some don't want to implicitly or explicitly assent to (reinforce/encourage/support) the regress.
Why would anyone jump onto a degenerative path/trend (toward an unknown future)?

, not sure how to thoroughly verify the numbers; admittedly I tend to take Reuters seriously (among the links).
Another factor could be the pandemic, though it didn't really take off until early 2020.
(Our neck of the woods, typically rather laid back, even had pandemic-related political incidents.)

FYI, one motivation for this post was Musk taking over Twitter, promising no censorship, trying to figure out where (if anywhere) free speech ends or should end.
Free speech can be "self-destructive" if you will, because it allows speech against itself, and, more directly, might incite harm or violence — then it becomes real.
As of typing, there are places where such freedom is stomped out to a wretched degree, and other places where it's abused ("weaponized" dis/mal/misinformation, whatever).
Middle grounds?

Just in time for Halloween:

The high-resolution image is quite something:

Pillars of Creation (MIRI Image)

If Russian warships are attacked in the present war, then Ukrainian food bound for various places will be blocked or worse, with food shortages to follow.

U.S. accuses Russia of "weaponizing food" after halting Ukraine grain exports (Axios; Oct 30, 2022)

The logic seems clear enough, yes? Putin values the warships being intact (untouchable) more than he values those people getting food. To me, that doesn't seem approachable as such, though he should be (regularly). What's next? Hold food hostage for Kyiv (London, Tampa Bay)?

Came across some earlier nuclear rattling ...

Putin used a graphic of Florida getting nuked to show off new Russian weapons (Orlando Weekly; Mar 1, 2018)


^{Putin shows video of nuclear attack on US (Newsy; Mar 1, 2018; 42s youtube)}

With the new system, there is no range limitation. As you can see from this video, it can attack any target through the North Pole or the South Pole. No missile-defense system will be able to withstand it. But even this is not the end. We have developed a new strategic weapon that does not use ballistic trajectory at all, which means that missile defense will be useless against it. This is what I am going to tell you about now, this new kind of weapon, a promising weapon that Russia has developed using new, unique technology designed by our engineers. One of those systems is a small, super-powerful, nuclear energy system that can be deployed in a cruise missile-like. Its range will be 10 times higher, which means there is basically no limit. — Clip Of Russian President Vladimir Putin State of the Nation Address (C-SPAN · Mar 2, 2018)

What to make of it?

No juicy selfies? :D

Liz Truss's phone hacked by Putin's spies in search for 'embarrassing' secret information (Express; Oct 30, 2022)

Finland Will Allow NATO to Place Nuclear Weapons on Border With Russia (Oct 26, 2022)

Finland and Poland could potentially end up hosting nuclear weapons.
Seems sort of unlikely that it will happen (to me at least); Finland would then become a Russian neighbor (border-sharing) with nuclear arms, of which there aren't a whole lot contrary to what Putin suggested.
But, unless Russia simmers down perhaps, it could become reality, more or less following Putin's moves.
I can't help but wonder, though, if a more conflict-prone or tense world is what Putin wants.
(Chaos levels the playing field, in chaos all are equal, until someone can use order to take control — a strategy alongside divide and conquer.)
Has non-proliferation taken a backseat? :meh:

Drones are all over the place these days.

Russian navy ‘repels’ drone attack on Crimea’s Sevastopol (Oct 29, 2022)

Ukraine war: 'Massive' Crimea drone attack, Russia suspends grain export deal, clocks controversy (Oct 29, 2022)

(Made me think of Star Wars for a moment.)

But you didn't, . It's a broader assessment. Take another look, here (quotes, here).

Similarly ...

Are we deploying missiles near the US border? No, we are not. It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep. Is it going too far to demand that no strike systems be placed near our home? — Putin · Dec 23, 2021

By the way, it seems clear enough that various parties were naïve or not paying attention. Putin's gunmen waltzed right in and grabbed Crimea. :smile: Something, according to your story, Putin apparently would do with or without Ukrainian NATO membership, for control. Back to the threat assessment.

, that's a bit ironic, because the question here was ...

I'd like to know what existential threat NATO was/is to Russia.
A fair assessment can (ought to) take place without going by any one particular person's story (Putin, Biden, Mearsheimer, Stoltenberg, Zelenskyy, and Winnie-the-Pooh came to mind while typing). — jorndoe

But you just keep repeating your story instead. :brow:

By the way, I already mentioned the Uyghur situation and the old Canadian Indian residential school system because of the uncanny parallels with the annexations — re-culturation. You might notice some of Putin's statements about "The West", NATO, whatever, bear resemblance to extremist manifestos (going as far as rambling against democracy). We've seen the type of rhetoric before. But that's not an argument, just an observation.

, so that's what Putin meant by ...

And for our country, this is ultimately a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people. And this is not an exaggeration: it is true. This is a real threat not just to our interests, but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty. — Putin · Feb 24, 2022

And in the end, if nothing at all can be done, the aim is the same: to destroy them, to wipe them off the political map.
[...]
Russia is simply upholding its right to exist and to develop freely. — Putin · Oct 27, 2022

↑ a couple of dire statements from this year not using «The term "existential threat"» verbatim, instilling that sense of urgency ("hyperbolic" or perhaps "fear-mongering" better than "dire"?)

Novorossiysk (Black Sea) and Rostov-on-Don (Sea of Azov) are more or less on a stretch of Russian coastal real estate from Veselo-Voznesenka to Adler (close to the Sochi Olympic Park). Rumors will have it that Putin spent a bit to develop Taman (just east of Kerch) since 2008, also on that stretch.

Maybe Putin should have used resources to further develop Novorossiysk and Taman for example, instead of spending them on (starting) a costly war ... bombing killing destroying shamming re-culturating. :up: But when you're the top dog Russian autocrat that's not enough apparently, and so an old-fashioned land grab it is. :down: There'd instead be less destructive jobs, perhaps praise instead of people fleeing, lost tanks, bodies, a Ukraine with increasing Russo-haters, heavy international sanctions, real threats.

As long as Turkey is a NATO member (has been since 1952, supports Ukrainian territorial integrity), Russia's further southbound sea access remains «at the mercy of NATO», if that means much here, it's any supposed NATO threat that's to be assessed here in the first place. NATO would instead limit Kremlin's free military actions; maybe that's what he meant by "develop freely".

, I don't think it's that unclear. Say, it could be the end of any of these, at least in any way that matters: Russia (country, nation); Russians (people); Russian (identity, culture, language); Russians doing Russian in Russia. Something along those lines.

, , anyone, I'd like to know what existential threat NATO was/is to Russia.
A fair assessment can (ought to) take place without going by any one particular person's story (Putin, Biden, Mearsheimer, Stoltenberg, Zelenskyy, and Winnie-the-Pooh came to mind while typing).
Whatever that may be (if any) would be put in context with the observed bombing killing destroying shamming threats re-culturation efforts.
Or, maybe, if sufficiently unclear, this could be a topic to clarify?

Hindustan Times' summary of Putin's Valdai ra...speech:

https://content.jwplatform.com/previews/rHtgB1YE

^{Putin rules out use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine amid war; ‘Dangerous’ (Oct 28, 2022)}

Turkey has tried with little success, though they seem in a fair position to do so; maybe they could do another round, inviting China to apply pressure against the destruction. :up:

Chances aren't looking great. :/

, why "more than a little distasteful"? Happens all the time, just check periodical condemnation of Israel. I can see why you might think so if you reject nations altogether; we're not quite there, though.

Admittedly, I haven't seen much here on the Uyghur situation. Maybe most just agree more on that, don't know. (I've only come across one person arguing in favor of the Chinese government, and that's a good while back.)

Say, the old Canadian Indian residential school system has received fair attention, albeit not so much here on the forums. That's historical, though.

These two ↑ came to mind because of the uncanny parallels with the annexations.

The requisite quote spam ...

^{"The penalty good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men."
— paraphrasing Plato (-429 — -347) *
"A peace may be so wretched as not to be ill exchanged for war."
— Tacitus (56 — 120)
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."
— paraphrasing Edmund Burke (1729 — 1797) *
"Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing."
— John Stuart Mill (1806 — 1873)
"First they came for the Jews and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for the Communists and I did not speak out because I was not a Communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for me and there was no one left to speak out for me."
— Martin Niemöller (1892 — 1984), 1946
"People cannot be free unless they are willing to sacrifice some of their interests to guarantee the freedom of others."
— Saul Alinsky (1909 — 1972), 1971 via archive, openculture, influencewatch, also check Article IV here (1789)
"Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented."
— Elie Wiesel (1928 — 2016)}

Nationalism is bullshit. — Isaac

Yeah. :/
That's the language of both attacker and defender though, and most others.
Maybe some day...

Putin has more or less consistently spoken in terms of larger conflict (almost like implicitly wanting international escalation), while his Russia is the victim, and, meanwhile, generously flattening :fire: Ukraine.
As noted, when Ukrainian territorial integrity is brought up (victims), the Kremlin turns the headset off (and continues the bombing), which makes negotiations harder. :/
Turkey has tried with little success, though they seem in a fair position to do so; maybe they could do another round, inviting China to apply pressure against the destruction. :up:

, but I thought the thread established that everyone's bad long ago? Everyone has a rap sheet.
This isn't particularly about East West North South, at least my comment wasn't.
Kyiv wouldn't be checked much to join the international drug trade, yet it remains that

Ukraine would be subject to transparency and standards to join the EU, for example

And joining Putin's Russia has come up as well. :D (They're in the process of being joined.)
The Ukrainians chose.

^{The President took part in the final plenary session of the 19th meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club (Oct 27, 2022) • Full text of Putin speech and answers at Valdai Discussion Club (Oct 28, 2022) • Hear Putin warn the world faces 'most dangerous' decade since WWII (Oct 28, 2022)}

Good grief.

So, anyway, what avenues remain possible?

The Turkish Daily Sabah wrote:
‘Ukraine, Russia have moved away from diplomacy, peace process’ (Oct 11, 2022)
The Turkish government has made some attempts.

, the US ain't the center of the world; this, on the other hand, is in need of being addressed by Kyiv (assuming they'll be alive to do so); Ukraine would be subject to transparency and standards to join the EU, for example.

Anyway, I'm wondering how many (varying) avenues for diplomacy are possible.
The UN, US, EU, China, London, ..., try to initiate/establish something?
Something more direct between Moscow/Putin and Kyiv/Zelenskyy?
A different way to go about it?

Earlier in the thread, some folks argued against the US and London being involved; there are still other possibilities, though.
(Maybe one of us should call up Moscow/Kyiv? :smile:)
Talks/negotiations are kind of needed, at the very least desirable, yes?

Anders Åslund's suggestion came up earlier, others have been aired, it just seems like that ship has sailed long ago; the Kremlin (and Putin) appears to be on a wretched warpath.

, if Russia was to explode like that, then a good deal of conflict would ensue, at least in the current environment. :/
Don't know if China or NATO would do something, but I imagine so.
Preferably, Putin's Russia would simmer down on the warring, and focus on building instead, in my opinion anyway.

This article has a bit of details:

The flimsiness of the claims led some diplomats and experts to suspect it was not intended to convince anyone but to send a message, but it is unclear what that message may be.
[...]
The Kyiv government has asked the IAEA to verify that no radioactive materials in Ukraine have gone missing, and the UN nuclear watchdog said it was preparing to send inspectors to two unidentified Ukrainian sites, both already subject to frequent inspections.
[...]
Perhaps significantly, the Russian allegation has prompted rare communication with the west, with Moscow’s armed forces chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, speaking on Monday to his US counterpart, Mark Milley, for the first time since May. — Russia steps up Ukraine ‘dirty bomb’ claim in letter delivered to UN · The Guardian · Oct 25, 2022

Nuclear materials are identifiable.

Russia Calling for ‘Desatanization’ of Ukraine (Truth or Fiction? Oct 25, 2022)

Apparently so, however weird. By government officials, first deNazification, then deMilitarization, now deSatanization. :D What's up in Moscow anyway?

At this rate we can soon hear from Russian screens that it was USA and NATO that attacked Ukraine, not Russia. — Anton Gerashchenko (Oct 26, 2022)

Meanwhile, real life on the ground, translations via Katya Soldak, Polina Raskazova, google:

Ivan Fedorov / Melitopol / Mayor
The occupiers continue to hold the population of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk regions hostage.
Yesterday, the Russians released a total of 94 people from the occupied parts of 4 regions of Ukraine to Zaporizhzhia. 33 of them are residents of Melitopol and the district.
At the same time, the weather conditions are getting worse every day.
The dirt road in the "gray" zone near the village of Kamianske, which is the next settlement after the enemy checkpoint in Vasylivka, is being washed away by the rains.
If people are not released now, it will be much more difficult for them to leave later. Rashisti understand this, but continue to release dozens instead of thousands.
#EvacuationfromOccupation — Telegram (Oct 26, 2022)

They'd have to flee a good way though, can't just get on West Jet to Lviv.

Battlefield reports from whatever sources that scrolled by ...

Putin's Su-30 'Flanker' jet detects & shoots down Ukraine military aircraft | Max payload: 8,000 KG
^{— Hindustan Times; Oct 24, 2022}
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia’s Ka-52 Attack Helicopter Fleet Has Been Massacred
^{— The Drive; Oct 25, 2022}
Russian Assault Repelled as Repeated Attacks in Donetsk Fail: ISW
^{— Newsweek; Oct 26, 2022}
Russia dealt setbacks in Ukraine's Kherson, Bakhmut, and Luhansk, Kyiv and pro-Kremlin bloggers say
^{— The Week; Oct 26, 2022}
Russian Losses In Ukraine Soared To 480 In Just One Day, According To Kyiv
^{— HuffPost; Oct 26, 2022}

Difficult to verify, but seems coherent across.


^{↑ Source: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25 (Critical Threats; Oct 25, 2022)}

Lines aren't moving much at the moment despite the destruction.
The Ukrainians are expected to make a further move on Kherson.
The Russians are expected to...well, bomb away.

Exactly what threat is NATO to Russia?
(And, what threat is Putin's Russia to Ukraine?)
To warrant the destruction?

Five Signs That Russia Is Preparing for All-Out War (Newsweek; Oct 26, 2022)

<sup>1. Economy on 'War Footing'
2. Bomb Shelters
3. Signage
4. Moscow Police
5. Emergency Evacuation Drills</sup>

Part of this, I'm sure, is rather to instill a sense of urgency in the population. No one is marching on Moscow, or has suggested so; it's the Ukrainians that are bomb targets here. Putin is trained as a spy (military, assassin, all that), which, I guess, is reflected in some of his moves.

, weird, I was just using Firefox as well, version 106.0.2 (64-bit), tweet is fine on my end.

, fyi, direct link:

‘Accountability gap’: Nobel peace prize winner warns Russian war crimes going unpunished (Oct 26, 2022)

, the tweet shows fine in my browser.

I think Krasovsky took a bit of heat for that one, and Zakharova was a bit too trigger-happy with a "template" response. :)

In a since-deleted post, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova denounced what she called a “targeted information attack” against Krasovsky, calling the RT host a “fantastically talented” commentator of “obvious and truthful” information. — RT Host Suspended for Calls to ‘Drown, Burn’ Ukrainian Children (Oct 24, 2022)

"Close call m'am, ya' could'a gone down with'im." Makes you wonder how frequent bullshit responses are (from government officials at that).

Russian TV presenter says sorry but faces probe for call to drown Ukrainian children (Oct 24, 2022)

Side-effects of the war ...

2 intensifying border wars show Putin is losing sway in his neighborhood while Russia struggles in Ukraine (businessinsider; Oct 24, 2022) ... via yahoo, msn

More bombing isn't really the best. Forget Ukraine, it's markedly more costly than keeping those various borders from erupting. :)

Russian leaders, including Vladimir Putin, inherited this colonialist mindset, seeing Central Asia (and Ukraine) as part of the Russia sphere. The former Soviet states of Central Asia were also accustomed to Moscow being the big stick in the region. — Michael Peck

Ups and downs in support for Ukraine ...

since the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations have all, to some degree, delayed or balked at sending lethal aid to Ukraine — Mark Gollom · CBC News · Mar 5, 2022

The 2022 invasion changed things.

Great, Russia kicks off a nuclear exercise Oct 26 ("Grom"), and NATO is currently running one, Oct 17-30 ("Steadfast Noon").

Russia has notified the U.S. its annual nuclear exercise has begun, U.S. officials say (CBS News; Oct 25, 2022)

A bit of coinciding war + ☢ games + ☢ rattling.

According to Reuters, the US and Spain are looking into sending HAWK defense systems to Ukraine — reuters direct (Oct 25, 2022), via msn. Can save lives. :up: Resources/infrastructure, too.

When experts on Russia are a little confused by his statements and actions — frank

Over time, you can probably find a few conflicting statements from Putin + team. (And a lot of bullshit.) Not generally reliable as such. Expect more if Putin is sticking around for another 14 years (aljazeera, usatoday).