Much speculation; bombing proceeds. :/

I'll just note that the more complex (or "chained") the speculation, the less accurate it's likely to be.


Anders Åslund, Ukraine’s six key conditions for peace talks with Putin’s Russia (Aug 24, 2022):

1. recovery of occupied Ukrainian territory
2. credible security guarantees
3. Russia to pay up for rebuilding what's been destroyed
4. Russian Black Sea Fleet to leave base in Sevastopol, and don't come back
5. Ukrainians to be permitted to leave Russia; children taken to Russia must be returned
6. prosecution of Russians who have committed serious war crimes at The Hague

Still fair, still unrealistic. Let's see 5 though, can also serve as a goodwill gesture.
Peace talks could aim at a neutral Ukraine (no NATO), which would address one of Putin's arguments.

@Isaac, here's one for your consideration.

The Battle of Culiacán:

Back in 2019, the Mexican government arrested a son of crime boss El Chapo, who, in turn, worked for crime boss El Mayo. In response, El Mayo had 100s of gunmen attack civilians and government targets. Eventually, the Mexican President released the arrested son to prevent further killing and violence. (Government forces and cartel gunmen shook hands.) Some said that El Mayo had become government, or whatever along those lines.

But, this is just an example of ... power ... ethics ... "don't negotiate with terrorists" (Chatham House) ... collateral damage ... who protects who (from)? ... democracy, roles of electees ...

Tensions:

• saving lives (perhaps minimize suffering / maximize well-being)
• giving in versus standing up to attackers (perhaps courage versus cowardice)
• dis/allowing offenders/thugs to continue/escalate offending (compromise, future)
• doing the right thing

I (personally) don't think there's a one-size-fits-all, though maybe standing on principles can sometimes deter malefactors from going there, or make them reconsider.

Anyway, in the present case (different from the example above), millions of Ukrainians have fled, and many are fighting, apparently with notable unity/cohesion/direction. Can we easily say what the right thing to do is?

This poetry performance by Russian-installed Kherson official Kirill Stremousov is truly one of the most bizarre things I have ever seen — Francis Scarr (Oct 18, 2022)

Maybe their Pr department is out manning the artillery?

Jason Jay Smart reported (Oct 15, 2022):

Is Russia bullying Ukraine ... or has NATO been trying to bully Russia these past decades?
Is Ukraine standing up to Russia ... or is Russia standing up to NATO? — boethius

Putin frames it in terms of threats, danger, fear. So, we could try to examine that.

First, though... Broken promise or not? This seemed to me a recurring claim — and justification — by Putin + team, and some others.

^{• Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says “No” (Brookings; Nov 6, 2014)
• Did The West Promise Moscow That NATO Would Not Expand? Well, It's Complicated. (RFE/RL; May 19, 2021)
• Ukraine: the history behind Russia’s claim that Nato promised not to expand to the east (The Conversation; Feb 14, 2022)
• “NATO (under direction from the United States) is violating previous agreements and expanding eastward.” (PolitiFact; Feb 22, 2022)}

Hmm ... Not quite so clear (earlier on, I thought it was more clear). More of a "he-said-she-said" thing apparently. Either way, the violence/bombing/shamming can't hang on this. (Ukraine is the obvious victim here.)

The threats (via earlier comment instead of repeating): Nuclear? More or less everyone's threatened. Only some flaunt. Troops then? NATO has more of them, is larger. Russia's flanked. Large country. (Well, bases and troop concentrations are susceptible to tactical nuclear weapons I guess.) Cultural threats? Humbug. Are we talking "claustrophobia" versus limiting free Kremlin movements/actions?

Non-hypotheticals: At the moment, Russia is a direct/present tangible threat to Ukraine (and perhaps some neighbors), more so than NATO is to Russia, except Putin's moves have put Russians in danger. There are casualties and losses, by far most in Ukraine, not Russia, not in NATO countries. The invasion. Conversely, sanctions are threatening Russia, albeit not so much a NATO thing.

The geo-strategic interests mentioned by @Tzeentch suggests a plain old land grab, which is a rationale, just not the one out of the anti-NATO rhetoric (≈ distraction). What threat is NATO to Russia that's different from protecting the members? No one has threatened with invading Russia. The threats to Russia aren't looking like what they're made out to be. Which suggests other aims, in part at least.

3 ways of looking at Putin’s barbaric escalation against Ukrainian civilians (Vox; Oct 17, 2022)
The international level, The domestic level, The psychological level

Much speculation; bombing proceeds. :/

When it comes to opinion of the Russian president, right-wing populist supporters are, in many cases, again more likely than those who do not support these parties to have confidence in Putin. — Among European right-wing populists, favorable views of Russia and Putin are down sharply · Pew Research Center · Sep 23, 2022

On Dec 14, 2016, Will Jordan noted ...

, these scrolled by a while back (your mileage may vary) ...

Why white evangelical Christians are Putin's biggest American fan base (MSNBC; Mar 2, 2022)

Putin’s Propaganda Machine Is What America’s Far-Right Wants (Defense One; Mar 11, 2022)

Whatever is going on, it doesn't look pretty.

Dear Russian people! [...]
— Alexandr Dugin — Paine

And that snippet is more subtly echoed by Putin, Matviyenko, and probably a few I forgot (including in the US). A call for nationalism in a category that history has seen before. Such like has been noted a few times recently (UN, 2019), not that anyone listens/cares.

, in case no one else welcomed you: welcome to. :)

Yes, you'll find grumpy old folks and angry young folks here, but more importantly smart and knowledgeable folks, too. :up:

Re the (existential) threats ...

Apart from Turkey, NATO members close to Russia don't host nuclear weapons (Canada not shown here):



↑ Source: What countries have nuclear weapons, and where are they? (The Conversation; Apr 1, 2022)

Something similar can't be said for Russia. Though, I don't know of anyone in Norway Finland Estonia Ukraine Canada that has detected ☢ with a hand-held Geiger counter. :)

• 352. Missile Defenses in Eastern Europe: Who Threatens Whom? (Wilson Center)

^{By the way, Bulgaria (pdf), for example, turned their armament down a bit before becoming a NATO member.}

Putin's NATO-phobia can't quite be due to nuclear weaponry on their doorstep, though they have aired complaints about radar and such defensive systems. Conversely, any Russo-phobia could be due to the nuclear weaponry; flauntery by autocrats doesn't help. Concerns over resources falling into the wrong hands is another factor.

• Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe (Reuters; Dec 13, 2021)

NATO troop allocations could be a reason for Putin's NATO-phobia. Reported some months after the Crimean grab:



↑ Source: THE EUROPEAN CHESSBOARD: Here's A Map Of The Russia-NATO Confrontation (Business Insider; Sep 29, 2014)

• The map that shows how many Nato troops are deployed along Russia’s border (The Independent; Feb 5, 2017)
• Factbox: Where NATO forces are deployed (Reuters; Jan 24, 2022)
• Here's where Alliance forces are deployed across Eastern Europe (CNN; Feb 10, 2022)
• Number of military personnel in NATO countries in 2021 (Statista; Aug 5, 2022)

Putin's moves have resulted in NATO (and other) moves, which seems warranted enough. (Troop presence gives a kind of claustrophobia versus limiting free Kremlin movements/actions?) Mobilization (and perhaps transport) could suggest resource shortage, escalation intent, or some such.

Then there's a supposed cultural threat to Russia (has also come up prior in the thread).
Rhetoric, hot air.

Perhaps a mutually forthcoming/accommodating attitude, reconciliatory gestures, bona fides signs, would go some way towards peace? Not easy when shams have been presented as legit, yet one step at a time? How about asking China to put pressure on Putin, however unlikely?

No one's marching on Moscow, has expressed wanting to, threatened with.
This part is about Ukraine, sovereignty, self-determination, self-power.

Ukraine member of NATO ...
• Russia less of a threat to Ukraine (limit Kremlin's free movements/actions)
• NATO more of a threat to Russia, cf Putin's speeches
In Ukraine's own interest, now proven, not hypothetical.
In Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia's interests.

Ukraine not member of NATO ...
• Russia more of a threat to Ukraine (proven, non-hypothetical)
• NATO less of a threat to Russia
In Russia's interest. (More Kremlin freedom.)

Ukraine neutral ...
• free to pursue EU/whatever affiliation/memberships
• not thoroughly demilitarized in light of present crisis

The Ukrainians have nonetheless changed stance on occasion, entertained options in public, shown willingness to hear others, and it's their homes and lives.
I'm guessing they don't have much patience left for those saying that NATO is an existential threat to Russia and calling it a day.

, equivocation aside, the Russian autocrats can say and do whatever, and that's what they do — with or without others.
Should others then stand idle by, if they propagandize (their population) into justifying/eliciting a world war, nuclear war, a(nother) catastrophe?
Letting them run their course isn't an answer, standing up is.
Fortunately, the current crisis isn't there, but some are standing up (on the high ground).

(Hmm perhaps a public ceremony isn't so far out after all... :smile:)

A separate idea, while babbling anyway: How about a different sort of talks and negotiations, one that's more direct, persistent, ongoing? Central/involved leaders have a direct line and are expected to talk with the rest frequently, promoting negotiations, perhaps compromises, and initiating putting guarantees on paper (formalized). They'd be recorded or something, so the world could figure out what's on their minds. This would sort of force participants to think about and address things, not just listen to their own generals.

As an aside, the borderless world is a neat idea, sort of. ^{(726952, 746063)}
John Lennon, 1971.
It's just far from the current world, whether by traditions, cultures, whatever, and doesn't seem feasible, at least not for a good while.

I think the Ukrainian government should arrange a large formal ceremony, to officially declare the Russian referendums not worth the papers they're written on.
They could invite foreigners, like government officials, UN representatives, reporters from all over, etc.
There would be lots of suits, a speech or two, paper signing, handshaking, shoulder padding, all the usual, with a bit of fanfare.
Importantly, the ceremony would be broadcast in great detail, whether live or not, but preferably available to Russians.
Could be held in Kyiv, Warsaw, some such, perhaps with some large outdoor screens for onlookers, Poland has lots of Ukrainian refugees.
Depending on any onlookers showing up, some of them could be interviewed as well, rounding things up neatly.

What say you?

, you tell me?

The referendums don't really mean anything, as per the UN and most others (is my guess). Those regions aren't part of Russia, regardless of what some Russians think, contrary to what Ukrainians think. I suppose Putin could always arrange/allow for a real vote. They had to invade first and what-not, though, which is kind of telling from the get-go. No particular change, militarily or otherwise, is a consequence of the referendums. The show rolls on.

Anyway, you tell me?

Russia stretches just about all the way to Japan, to Alaska, out to the Pacific.

So you admit that Ukraine could not possibly successfully invade Russia? — Isaac

As far as I know (correct me if wrong), they've never expressed wanting to, threatened with, or the like. Not their interest. Why would anyone anyway? The only reason that comes to mind as such, is as a defensive measure. I guess, technically at least, it's possible that this could change. Until then, there's not much threat to Russia (like there is to Ukraine).

Not a whole lot of countries could occupy Russia, if that was the aim of an invasion.

, the existential thing is quoting Putin. Strategic interests are other matters. Then there's the context, further elaborating interests. Besides, going by strategic interests points at a plain land grab, however shrouded in rhetoric.

As an aside, suggested by Zaporizhzhia:

He would see this country burn if he could be King of the ashes — Lord Varys

Territorial integrity of Ukraine: defending the principles of the Charter of the United Nations (Oct 7, 2022)

^{• illegal so-called referendums
• unlawful actions of the Russian Federation
• have no validity under international law and do not form the basis for any alteration of the status of these regions of Ukraine
• not to recognise any alteration by the Russian Federation of the status of any or all of the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk or Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine
• immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine
• a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine}

Votes:

78% of UN tells Putin to go home. 5% tells him to go ahead.
Would it be strange if Russia had voted for? :)

A bit of the here-and-there regarding culture Mar-May:

^{• Putin lashes out at Russians with Western mentality (CNN; Mar 17, 2022)
• Putin Lashes Out at 'National Traitors' with Pro-Western Views (The Moscow Times; Mar 18, 2022)
• Putin lashes out at West ‘cancelling’ Russian culture, says it reeks of Hitler’s Germany (TASS; Mar 25, 2022)
• We should all be concerned that Putin is trying to destroy Ukrainian culture (The Conversation; Mar 22, 2022)
• A Kremlin paper justifies erasing the Ukrainian identity, as Russia is accused of war crimes (CBC; Apr 5, 2022)
• Why is Ukraine trying to cancel Russian culture? (Al Jazeera; May 6, 2022)}

Not pretty. Control, domination, self-power. Bears peripheral resemblance to:

^{• Canadian Indian residential school system (Wikipedia)
• Uyghur genocide (Wikipedia)}

:/

Some things mentioned earlier in the thread, apologies for the repeat...

• Putin's Russia goes (increasingly) autocratic non-democratic authoritarian oppressive
• the Donbas has been an organized staging area for some time
• grabs Crimea
• flaunts nuclear weaponry and delivery systems
• rolls out the submission-machine, bombing killing ruining shamming
• annexes four more Ukrainian regions (anti-NATO rhetoric still applicable)

Putin's (supposed) NATO-phobia thing has run low on hot air.

• the Ukrainians look elsewhere than Putin's Russia, Putin's actions might be creating a lot of Ukrainian Russo-haters (bad, and almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy)
• there's already a strip free of nuclear weapons in the north, Canada and the Nordic countries (as far as we know at least, and Putin apparently believes so)
• NATO would instead limit Kremlin's free movements/actions (with or without nuclear weapons in Ukraine pointing at Moscow)
• in retrospect, Ukraine seeking NATO membership has proved understandable, defense alone

Net result as of typing: by fire and sham, Putin has declared a fifth of Ukraine part of Russia.
, there you have some "strategic interests", happily married to domination, control, nationalism.

Things changed after in 2008 NATO stated they wanted to incorporate Ukraine — Tzeentch

The Russians have been saying that the matter of Ukraine is an existential threat to them since at least 2008, and it has been a hot topic way before — Tzeentch

Or perhaps Putin's aggressive tendencies reached a threshold in 2004 when his guy lost (to be ousted in 2014).
Putin has elaborated on his ambition for Ukraine to be Russian, standard procedures in progress.
What do you think could get in the way of Putin's "make Russia great again" mission?

Anyway, nothing new here, for which I apologize.

Funny how this has all of a sudden become a rallying cry. — Isaac

Does that disturb you? ;) Not much of a rallying cry, though, and hardly sudden. Besides, becoming a member isn't (just) their choice, seeking membership is. And Putin needed no more than that, by a logic to make things go south. :/

, you replaced my words with your own characterization — a characterization that would fit, what, half the nations on Earth? More?

Trying to remember what nations have threatened Putin's Russia with invasion/takeover, or a downright existential threat, but coming up short. There were some distressing mutual assured destruction situations during the cold war. Gay rights or democracy (or McDonald's) or whatever isn't an invasion. Yet, Putin's Russia is the victim here? That's the ultimate conclusion?

I don't (personally) agree with this statement by the Lithuanian minister, I'll just observe that it only takes one party to start/make war, no manner of votes or words can change that, call it "free will" if you like: "Nobody wants a World War, but dictators can only be stopped with weapons."

I'll just sneak a "missing" bit in. :)

"helping" the Ukrainians get slaughtered [by Putin's orders] — Manuel

By the way, they say there's been a surprising amount of unity/direction among the Ukrainians.
ROC style (in english)?

You see, if NATO would collapse (like SEATO and CENTO) and EU would become disorganized, Russia could approach every European country on a bilateral basis. And on a one-on-one basis Russia is strong and quite dominant towards every West European country. And that is the objective. It is the objective of an imperialist great power: it won't attack everybody, but sure wants to dominate all the relationships. It's not going to invade every country it can, hence it's not the Mongol Horde you are talking about. So the idea that Russia would try to invade all of Europe is quite naive. Yet without an EU and Atlanticism, Russia is the top dog in Europe. — ssu

:up: It's just the old divide and conquer strategy. (As an aside, Putin's cyber-henchmen have employed similar methods on the information highways to sow division/distrust.)

Let me play the threat-game for a moment ...

We, Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia, can't have weapons of mass destruction pointed our way sitting on our doorstep. Should actions toward that come to pass, we'd have to take counter-measures. And in case of threats from non-democratic regimes, more decisive measures.

That's Putin's logic applied if Ukraine was "enrolled" into Russia, and is equally applicable to Ukraine until then.

^{(Moldova is not a NATO member, the others are. Poland since 1999, Romania 2004, Hungary 1999, Slovakia 2004. Finland and Sweden are expected to become members.)}

EDIT: grammar

Things have taken some U-turns.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for his country, while he also said he is open to "compromise" on the status of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region — Peter Suciu · National Interest · Mar 11, 2022

President Volodymyr Zelensky has hit back at Russia's annexation moves by seeking accelerated membership of Nato.
That is a marked change from the start of the war, when he announced he would stop pushing for membership of the 30-strong Western defensive alliance because of Nato's concern about confrontation with Russia. He knows, however, that he will have to persuade every member state to agree, and Turkey for one is unlikely to. — Paul Kirby · BBC · Sep 30, 2022

Unless Ukraine is assimilated by Russia, this might continue, it's the Ukrainians' choice to make.

Recognition of Donbas, no. Recognition of Crimea -- maybe. — Xtrix

I'm guessing a neutral but independent Crimea would be unacceptable to Putin. Any chance of that?

For that matter, there has been past resentment/animosity between Poland and Ukraine, yet Poles have been quite helpful to Ukrainians in the present crisis. Things change. (Also, I'm sure Poles have little patience with Nazism.) What might the reasons be?

Sounds like a value judgement to me, which aren't very useful when trying to understand a political situation. What does it matter what you and I want? It has no impact on what is happening and why it is happening. — Tzeentch

It's not a hermetically sealed evaluation, you'll have to keep the rest in mind alongside.

As an example, if Putin had gone towards real democracy, transparency, non-authoritarianism, free press, less use of polonium-210, whatever (quite a bit has been posted right here in the thread already), then lots of people would be looking in this direction, be more enthusiastic. The autocratic non-democratic non-transparent authoritarian oppressive kleptocratic leadership/regime is a killer.

, returning to your comment and my followup, did you then confirm/deny any of this...?

no love lost if Putin's Russia was to remain more of a regional power than a superpower (e.g. without annexations) — jorndoe

straightforward that any number of nations (not just the US) are distrusting Putin's autocratic non-democratic non-transparent authoritarian oppressive leadership — here "distrusting" might be too mild a word — from what we've heard/seen, Putin is forcing it, little reconciliatory gestures, bona fides signs lacking

And for our country, this is ultimately a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people. And this is not an exaggeration: it is true. This is a real threat not just to our interests, but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty. — Putin · Feb 24, 2022

↑ Fear-mongering an alleged existential threat, that instead proved an existential threat to Ukraine, then, depending on the Ukrainian situation, subsequently Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia — jorndoe

[NATO] limiting their [Kremlin's] free movements/actions

After all, context, perspective, all that, right?

Is it any wonder that Ukraine wanted to join NATO?

(like Sweden and Finland since)

Ukraine has received a fair amount of help, adding to the story.

, doesn't look like Putin is going anywhere.

What do you think of a neutral Ukraine?

, your comment has that faint whiff of nefarious conspiracy theory.

Sure, it's not that difficult to find something that's consistent with the theory (like most conspiracy theories), and, for that matter, there's no love lost if Putin's Russia was to remain more of a regional power than a superpower (e.g. without annexations).

From there on, to declare your comment more or less factual is rather questionable.

For example, it's more straightforward that any number of nations (not just the US) are distrusting Putin's autocratic non-democratic non-transparent authoritarian oppressive leadership — here "distrusting" might be too mild a word — from what we've heard/seen, Putin is forcing it, little reconciliatory gestures, bona fides signs lacking.

And for our country, this is ultimately a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people. And this is not an exaggeration: it is true. This is a real threat not just to our interests, but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty. — Putin · Feb 24, 2022

↑ Fear-mongering an alleged existential threat, that instead proved an existential threat to Ukraine, then, depending on the Ukrainian situation, subsequently Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia (and, by extension, Europe).

Is it any wonder that Ukraine wanted to join NATO?

NATO and whatever/whoever are apparently in the way of Putin's Kremlin's ambitions, limiting their free movements/actions (also consistent with observations), and hence NATO and whatever/whoever are the evil ones here. Ironically perhaps, Putin's war has put Russia at risk.

A neutral Ukraine, again? What happened to that?

what Russia is doing is criminal — Manuel

It's not really the entirety of Russia, I'd say the autocratic Russian leadership. Of course some would blame the population at large for not ousting the leadership, I just don't think it's that easy/simple. As far as I can tell (conjecture on my part), Putin's agenda is one of domination, national pride, and it seems the end justifies the means. Then a real-life chess game.

, I need a memory upgrade. Curiosity will get the best of me.

do you write all of these links out yourself, or are these somehow copy-and-paste jobs? — Xtrix

By and large, they're docs that scroll by elsewhere (notifiers, friends, family, feeds, facebook, twitter, the evening news, etc), then I scan through some for broader context, do a bit of searching/checking, and keep some in text files. Yep, occasionally I reuse/post stuff from those text files, and yep I do type the darn forum code in myself. :) I suppose it is a bit of work, though it has become a habit to do fairly quickly. (Some of these forum posts of mine were typed into a text file first, including this one.)

FYI (not that it matters here), elsewhere I started a pandemic tracker mid-2020 or so, which has grown to a tediously long list of docs/links/events/whatever. Over time it became littered with anti-vaxxer stuff and such, probably as many as scientific studies.

(if that answers your question)

Talks could start by Putin calling Zelenskyy, or Zelenskyy calling Putin. That'd be fantastic. :up:

Meanwhile, Putin rolled out the submission-machine months ago, which has been offloading artillery fire and missiles since. A fairly impressive amount at that, occasionally unleashing the mercs during Vodka breaks.

• Stop attacks on health care in Ukraine (Mar 13, 2022)
• Ukraine sees room for compromise, as 20,000 escape Mariupol (Mar 16, 2022)
• Ukraine: Deadly Attacks Kill, Injure Civilians, Destroy Homes (Mar 18, 2022)
• Bucha massacre (Mar 31, 2022)

The daily killing of civilians, the torture, disappearances and other violations must stop. If the hostilities will not stop, then the absolute minimum required is to fully respect international humanitarian and human rights law and commit to protecting every civilian woman, man and child and those hors de combat. — Matilda Bogner commenting on findings Feb 24 - May 15 2022

• Ongoing shelling has led to homes being destroyed with many living in bomb shelters without access to basic services. (Jun 22, 2022)
• Russia’s War in Ukraine — The Devastation of Health and Human Rights (Jul 14, 2022)
• at its disposal is the scorched earth tactic, based on artillery superiority (Jul 17, 2022)
• Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia kill at least 12, Ukrainian officials say (Oct 9, 2022) | Missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia leaves at least 12 dead, dozens injured (Oct 9, 2022; 2m:27s youtube)
• Dozens of Russian missiles hit multiple Ukrainian cities (Oct 10, 2022)

^{↑ Image source: Russian Missile Blitz Signals Escalation (Oct 10, 2022)}
• Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO
(anyway, reports continue on)

We're not just talking some skirmishes between combatants out Donbas way. The kind of madness here calls for guarantees, more than just he-said-she-said. I can see why Ukraine sought NATO membership, like Finland and Sweden since did.

Commitments to questionable future predictions aren't that easy to come by here, especially not in the case of handing over self-power. Loss of any trust there may have been doesn't help, either.

Diplomacy difficult, even if welcomed. :/ The destruction bombing onslaught shams is what there is to deal with.

If you want to just lay down and let them do whatever they like because you're so powerless, that's your bag, don't expect everyone else to be so weakly compliant. — Isaac

Spoken like a Ukrainian fighter? ;)

Another aspect of the situation and thread could be a purely military strategic tactical discussion. Might not have enough (real) information, would have to make assumptions along the way.

Frustration with Ukraine war spills out on Russian state TV (Oct 3, 2022)

Critique of Putin, use of the word "war", and speaking of leaving Ukrainian land is punishable or dangerous, though. No can do.

Belarus's Lukashenko warns Ukraine, deploys troops with Russia (Oct 10, 2022)

Military analysts saw this coming I think. Putin made a phone call or two, and Lukashenko sees the boogeyman to the south. Does it say something about the situation? (Is Putin in need of help, cannon fodder, distraction, getting scared, or something?)

What might happen if Belarus declares war with Ukraine?

You get that from a summary? — Isaac

Well, no, lots have been posted already.

all seeing this like we're choosing wallpaper — Isaac

But there are no neat solutions at the moment. :/ And so, comments keep going in circles. (Not that the world will listen to us anyway.) Commitments to questionable future predictions aren't that easy to come by here, especially not in the case of handing over self-power. Loss of any trust there may have been doesn't help, either. The attackers want to assimilate, the defenders want them to leave. Maybe China could put pressure on the attackers? Worth a shot for someone to promote? Hmm don't really see that happening, at least not in a way that really matters.

The only problem with Russia is the nukes but should we really worry about that when it's time to kick ass? :fire: — Baden

Sure hope it won't come to that. Kelsey Piper is pessimistic, in the long term anyway:

How to stop rolling the dice on the destruction of human civilization (Sep 22, 2022)

Meanwhile in Moscow ...

(crazies are everywhere)

Russia's Ukraine Offensive 'Absolutely Senseless': Ex-Military Leader (Newsweek; Oct 9, 2022)

I notice the implicit admission of Russian insurgency, an organized, controlled staging area, in Donbas. I guess it's no secret. Does undermine some Kremlin statements, though; the pretense that it's all uninfluenced natives by themselves wanting to look to Russia. I guess that's not new, either. Sorry if I repeated.

, well, now you have the two statements side by side, with the party that wants to take over being the worse of the two (which matters). Perhaps more importantly is the trajectory, the moves, the apparent intents, willing commitments, that stuff. Informative indicators.

Would this be a good time for Moldova to "covertly" take bac...over Transnistria, with the help of unnamed external parties? :D
Or perhaps bounce Russia from Transnistria, all sort of "unofficially" of course? *sshhh*
Could have an "election" guaranteed to have Transnistria join Moldova or Ukraine?
After all, there are nuclear threats on the horizon, and they're close with Romania, right?

I’m interested in finding out what I can do to stop the war — Xtrix

Very little it seems. :/

, citing AI's Ukraine report here makes a comparison with their Russia-report pertinent (corroborated by HRW's report by the way).

The Covid-19 pandemic continued to exacerbate the dire state of healthcare services. The rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly were routinely violated. Public assemblies organized by the political opposition were almost completely prohibited. Legislation on “foreign agents” and “undesirable organizations”, together with prosecutions on trumped-up charges and other forms of pressure, were widely used to suppress dissent. Threats and attacks against journalists, human rights defenders and other activists were perpetrated with impunity. Persecution of Jehovah’s Witnesses intensified. Torture and other ill-treatment in places of detention remained endemic and prosecutions of perpetrators rare. Enforced disappearances were reported in Chechnya. The authorities failed to address domestic violence. LGBTI people continued to face discrimination. Arbitrary deportations of refugees and asylum seekers persisted. — AI: Russian Federation 2021

Joining the EU comes with some prerequisites that Ukraine would be subject to. Seeking membership is indicative of intent to improve in areas deemed to fall short, and sufficient transparency for others to evaluate. Conversely, there are indicators that Putin's Russia has been going in the opposite direction (maybe gay rights are the most visible, don't know). And they've been lashing out at (or been paranoid of) "The West" for a bit, while calling for nationalism and such. ^{(Nov 28, 2007, Feb 8, 2008, Sep 20, 2013, Feb 11, 2021, Mar 3, 2022, Mar 16, 2022, Jun 10, 2022)} It's not a contest, yet here Ukraine "wins" over Putin's Russia.

the destroyed/damaged/captured tanks — ssu

There have been other reports.

Haven't read of any booby traps. Maybe the Russians will add that to their arsenal, however wasteful it seems. :)

Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia kill at least 12, Ukrainian officials say (Oct 9, 2022)

That kid there was/is scheduled to speak Russian only, by the way:



Not the first missile attack in the past week or so.
(Isn't this supposed to be a region that voted to join Russia anyway?)
Not seeing much genuinity or reconciliation here.