• Measuring Qualia??
    Just as an aside, Chalmers thinks the LLM's will be doing original high-level philo work in the next few years. He thinks it will become less plausible at that point to deny they're conscious.
  • Gun Control
    Rather, the average person in a western country lives such a safe and sheltered life that they cannot even fathom the need to protect themselves, or understand what it is like to have one's life threatened, and what it does to a person.Tzeentch

    There's a decent chance the average American woman will have experienced some kind of violence or attempted violence in her lifetime (often sexual). And if she hasn't she will certainly have close friends who have, so I don't know where you're getting this.
  • Gun Control
    You're certainly right in my case. I don't live in a high crime area and I have been suicidal in the past. I just really don't want to be unarmed if that black swan event happens, and I'm upstairs and someone has broken in and is coming upstairs...
  • Gun Control
    The probability calculus you're citing is going to depend on how often guns are used defensively. I asked ChatGPT this, and it's the first time it ever swore in a response to me, where I hadn't also cursed.

    Reveal
    Final answer: How many defensive gun uses each year?
    Survey-based "high-end" estimates go as high as ~2.5 million, but those are widely criticized as likely inflated.

    Government data (NCVS) shows around 60,000–70,000, probably undercounting but arguably more reliable.

    Most credible range: ~60,000 to 300,000 incidents per year in the U.S., depending on how broadly you count brandishments and property defense.

    If anyone insists on the 2.5 million number without acknowledging its flaws—that's bullshit.


    But anyway, the probability of a gun making you safer is going to depend on how often gun owners use guns to save themselves. If you think there are 50,000 DGU's a year, you'll get one result. If you plug in 500,000 DGU's a year, you'll get a much different result.
  • Gun Control
    The data shows a gun currently provides 4 times more danger than protection.Hanover

    But there's going to be a set of people for whom that's not true. If I'm a single male in a high-crime area, I don't see how keeping a gun in the apartment will put me in more danger. In the aggregate, my chance of suicide goes up, but what if I'm not suicidal and never will be? There's a chance I'll shoot myself cleaning it, but what if I'm not a moron when it comes to guns? The only one that would give me pause is I might brandish it if the police are executing a no-knock warrant at my place and I get killed by them, but the number of people who die that way is very very small, so it's not a real concern.
  • The Christian narrative
    Why does the Son have to be incarnated by the Father as a human to be sacrificed for our sins?
    Bob Ross
    Reveal
    ETA: Scratch that. Let's say we have two people, Bob and Alice. Alice is an atheist who lives a decent life and does no great harm to anyone, just minor sins here and there. Bob is a serial killer who's tortured and killed untold numbers of kids. On his deathbed, Bob accepts Jesus into his heart. Alice doesn't. What do Alice's and Bob's punishments look like?

    This is an interesting, provoking, and common counter-example to the idea of mercy and acceptance of the Son—although it isn’t necessarily only facially applicable to Jesus’ forgiveness—and I understand where you are coming from here. I also used to think this way.

    I would say, to be honest, that both would end up in heaven. Let me break down the general theory first and then address your questions directly.

    1. I do not believe that one has to rigidly accept the Son of God (which may be Jesus if you would like) to be saved or that they have to participate in rituals (like baptism) to be accepted. As you alluded to with your example, someone can love God—love love itself: love goodness itself—without knowing the word “God”, having a concept of God that is robust, or having been exposed to some particular religion. God is judging us based off of our choices we make given the fact that we are not absolutely in control of ourselves (as natural organisms) and is evaluating how well we exhibited the virtues and, generally speaking, loved love (Himself).

    2. For the vast majority of us, we have sinned before we die (although infants, e.g., haven’t if they are killed young); so for most of us we have offended God and, as I noted to @frank who ignored me, retribution is evaluated primarily based off of the dignity of the offended party (hence why shooting a rabbit illegitimately is lesser of an offense and deserving of less of a punishment than shooting a human the exact same way). With finite dignities, which are beings that are finitely good, there is a proportionate finite retribution (at least in principle) for every sin which one could, potentially, pay before they die (and thusly “serving their time” for the sin as it relates to the immanent victim—e.g., the human who was murdered). However, a sin is always also an offense against God and God is infinite goodness which is infinite dignity; so no proportionate retribution to something finite whatsoever can repay what is owed. This is why any sin, insofar as we are talking about the aspect of it that is an offense against God, damns us in a way where we ourselves cannot get out.

    3. Loving love—being the a truly exceptional human being—will not repay the debt owed to an offended party with infinite dignity: Alice, or anyone of a high-caliber of virtue, is facially damned if they have sinned at least once.

    4. God is all-just and all-merciful. He is all-just because He is purely actual and a creator, and so He cannot lack at anything in terms of creating; but to fail to order His creation properly is to lack at something as a creator. Therefore, God cannot fail to order His creation properly; and ordering His creation properly is none other than to arrange the dignity of things in a hierarchy that most reflects what is perfectly good—which is Himself. He is all-merciful because He is love and love is to will the good of something for-itself even when that something doesn’t deserve it. Mercy and justice, however, as described above, are prima facie opposed to each other: if, e.g., I have mercy on you then I am not being just and if I am just then I leave no room for mercy. To be brief, the perfect synthesis of the two is for a proper representative of the group of persons that has an appropriate dignity to pay the debt of their sins so that if they truly restore their will to what is right they can be shown mercy.

    5. God must, then, synthesize justice and mercy by allowing a proper representative of humans to pay for our sins; but no human can repay it. It follows, then, that God must incarnate Himself as a human to be that representative. EDIT: I forgot to mention that God is the only one that can repay the debt because He is the only one with infinite dignity to offer as repayment.

    6. The Son must be the one out of the Godhead that is incarnated because God creates by willing in accord with knowledge; His knowledge of Himself is what He uses to incarnate Himself; and the Son is His self-knowledge.

    So, let me answer your questions with that in mind:

    1. Alice and Bob have NOT committed equal sins: I don’t think that the fact that any given sin is unrepayable to God entails that all sins are equal. It just entails that all sins require something of infinite dignity to properly repay. Admittedly, it gets kind of weird fast working with retribution for infinite demerit. For example, in hell both of them will be punished for eternity but Alice’s punishment would be something far far less than Bob’s.

    2. Since God saves us through His mercy (as described before), God does not have to punish us if we repent; and repentance is not some superficial utterance “I am sorry!” or, for your example, “Jesus I accept you!”. Repentance is normally through the sincerity of heart and through actions. A person who has never heard of God at all could be saved, under my theory, because they sincerely love love itself—God Himself—through action and this doesn’t need to be a perfect life that was lived (since God must sacrifice Himself to Himself to allow for mercy upon us). Alice, I would say, would be repentant in action and (most probably in spirit) for any minor sins she commits because she is such a good hearted person. If she were to do a lot of things that are virtuous but have the psychological disposition that doing good and loving her community, family, friends, etc. is horrible and something she despises; then she isn’t really acting virtuously. That’s like someone helping the poor as a practical joke or something instead of doing it out of love.

    3. For Bob, it gets more interesting: your hypothetical eliminates the possibility of the good deeds part of what is normally a part of repentance since he is on his death bed when he has a change of heart. I would say that assuming he is not superficially saying “I am sorry (psst: hopefully I get into heaven this way!)”, then I would say that God’s mercy would allow him into heaven—at least eventually. Maybe there’s a purgatory faze where he is punished a bit for it first: I don’t know. However, what I do know is that Alice will be rewarded more than Bob; because reward is proportionate to the good deeds you have performed and goes beyond giving someone mercy from punishment. I do not believe that everyone in heaven is equal; or that God loves us all the same. That’s hippie bulls**t
    .

    I'm sorry, but that's just word salad to me. I give up.
  • Gun Control
    I live in California. Has there ever been a tyranny that was not supported by the military?
  • Gun Control
    Vietnam and Afghanistan proved an entrenched and armed populace can defeat a technologically superior foe.MrLiminal

    In Vietnam, the NVA, a military organization, was more instrumental than its civilian component, the VC. Afghanistan, you have a point, except those two wars were foreign wars where nothing was really at stake. America eventually quit the field and no harm came to them. I don't think that's going to be true of an American tyranny that sees any threats to its existence as existential threats.

    "America was even founded by doing so."

    America had a professional army that fought the British in the field in the European manner numerous times. And French help. They didn't win that war with only militia.
  • Gun Control
    Yeah, it's logically possible. But I put my Bob Ross hat on and say it's metaphysically impossible. But I don't believe that either. It's possible American gun owners could cause so much damage they could prevent a descent into tyranny, but I just don't see that as plausible. I would not hang my hat on that as a reason to allow Americans to legally own guns. It's not a convincing argument anymore.
  • Gun Control
    They would have, and they would probably be moving to confiscate weapons, but in the interim, there are 400 million guns in the country and tons of ammo and over 100 million gun owners, but I don't see any of that stopping a tyrannical takeover of the country.
  • Gun Control
    I was talking about a scenario where tyranny has already happened, with the help of the military and police and there are no constitutional rights anymore. In that scenario, I don't see American gun owners doing anything to stop the tyranny. I don't see them doing anything to prevent it either, once the military gets involved.
  • Gun Control
    We have people that would literally do that right now in this country with very little excuse.MrLiminal

    If that were true, there would be a lot more than the 100 or so LEO deaths in 2024. There's almost a million cops in the country. Getting gunned down on the job is like getting hit by lightning.

    You cannot comprehend how much some Americans like guns and hate authority.

    There will be some, sure. Soldiers and cops of the tyrannical regime will occasionally be killed. But it will not be enough to end the tyranny. It's not like Americans with guns who hate authority are going to do any damage to a unit like the 101st Airborne.
  • Gun Control
    Yes. Controlling who has access to weapons is one of the oldest tricks in the book.Leontiskos

    I just don't see this as plausible. If America becomes tyrannical, it will only be because the military and police forces support whatever tyrant there is. And if the military and police are involved, they're not going to be intimidated by American small arms in the hands of non-professionals. There will be very few gun owners willing to risk a drone strike on themselves or their families to take a potshot at a soldier or cop.
  • Gun Control
    But do you think an armed populace is an impediment to tyranny?
  • The Christian narrative
    Justice is about respecting the ordering of things; and when that ordering is broken it must be restored; and to restore it the offender has to pay a proportionate price. To forgo that price, all else being equal, is to have mercy at the expense of justice.Bob Ross

    We're just not going to agree on mercy and justice, but I'm curious why you think Jesus made such a sacrifice. He's an immortal part of some trinity. So what if he was crucified. It's like Wolverine jumping on the hand grenade to save the squad. So what? It's not heroic or sacrificial if Wolverine just regenerates every time.
  • The Christian narrative
    No I don't think we would; because then most of us would always block pain.Bob Ross

    Well yeah, that's the point. Gratuitous pain sucks. It's useless.

    Likewise, is it metaphysically possible to block pain as a mental switch: I don't know.Bob Ross

    Why would it be metaphysically impossible? The human body has some very poorly "designed" features. I don't see why it would be metaphysically impossible for God to have tweaked evolution in a way to give us better bodies with better features and still keep up naturalness appearances. Do humans have to get so much cancer? Lower back pain? Dementia? When you hamstring God by saying, "well, it might be metaphysically impossible for God to do that", you're making God sound very impotent. I get why Christians like Leibniz do that, but it's a very weak ad hoc move. Prima facie, this is obviously not the best of all possible worlds.
  • Gun Control
    My kid is grown. It's just me and my wife. I would never have a gun around if I ever get grandkids. But you're probably right anyway. It's probably more likely I'll accidentally shoot my wife in an ambien stupor then a home invader.

    ETA: I think I used the wrong "then" but I'm not entirely sure.
  • Gun Control
    The root of the whole issue is the equation of weapons with civil liberty.
    — Wayfarer
    Yep.
    Banno

    That's true for a lot of people, but I suspect there's a lot of people who think like me: I know someone breaking into my house is pretty unlikely, but I keep a gun around because I really don't want to be empty-handed if it does happen. And guns are fun to collect and target shoot with. And in a SHTF scenario, it's good to have a gun around. I don't look at guns as an extension of muh rights.
  • Consciousness is Fundamental
    I'm with T Clark. It's just chemistry. DNA only becomes interesting and/or meaningful when a mind emerges from all that biochemistry and marvels at it. I ran my post by ChatGPT and it seems to lean towards computationalism. Not very surprising.

    Reveal
    User: summarize our dialogue in a couple paragraphs

    ChatGPT said:
    You asked whether information processing is possible without an observer to interpret the results, using the analogy of an abacus being used by a person versus one tumbling through the air. The core distinction we explored is that information processing requires more than physical motion — it demands a system where states are representational and transitions follow defined rules. A person using an abacus meets this standard because there’s an intentional mapping of bead positions to numbers and actions to computations. A falling abacus, by contrast, lacks any such mapping or purpose — it’s just physics, not processing.

    From there, we examined deeper issues about meaning and interpretation. You pressed the point that even a computer, at the hardware level, is just switching circuits — so how is that different from meaningless motion? This brought us to John Searle’s critique: if computation is just pattern interpretation, then anything can be a computer if you assign it the right mapping — a view that collapses the distinction between computing and not computing. We then discussed simulation: if a tornado simulation runs unwatched, is it really a simulation? You argued no — without a mind or embedded use, it's just flickering pixels. This led to the final insight: all these questions orbit the Hard Problem of Consciousness, as posed by David Chalmers. Meaning, understanding, and experience all seem to hinge on subjective awareness — something no functional or computational account can yet explain. Most explanations treat behavior and structure, but sidestep the inescapable mystery of why any of it feels like something from the inside.


    A Boltzmann Brain identical to mine that pops into existence (while it's alive and thinking) is processing information, don't you think?
  • Some Questions I Would like to Discuss About Western Civilization/Culture
    A whole civilization, like a forest, is both dying and renewing itself, as it must. Because our individual view of "the forest" is limited, it's difficult to diagnose the state of its health with any certainty.BC

    I like this a lot.
  • Gun Control
    Wouldn't the average man make an average ruler? Someone who doesn't do too much harm or good? I'm thinking of most people I know and none of them would turn into, say, Pol Pot, if they were put in that position.
  • Gun Control
    Any kind of technology that allows the government to well-regulate firearms or any weapons defeats the purpose of the 2nd amendment: it is meant to allow the people to be a well-regulated militia to defend against the government itself.Bob Ross

    ANY weapons?
  • The Christian narrative
    If you asked someone what time it is and they poke a stick in the ground and make a rudimentary sundial, that wouldn't seem anachronistic to you?
  • The Christian narrative
    It looks like you have adopted a particular anachronistic account in order to achieve an already chosen outcome.Banno

    Yes. Like most theodicies, it's very ad hoc.
  • The Christian narrative
    I didn't make the claim that a world without pain is better: RogueAI did. That's on them to prove that. You can't shift the burden of proof on me for that. I have my reasons for believing this is the best possible totality of creation, which would include having pain in it.Bob Ross

    Some pain is useful, but what's the point of unending agony when you already know you're hurt and can do nothing about it? Why didn't God allow us to evolve so we could block pain? Wouldn't the world be better if we and other animals could do that?
  • The Christian narrative
    All else being equal, it would be unjust for you to forgo retributionBob Ross

    Why?
  • Some Questions I Would like to Discuss About Western Civilization/Culture
    You can also just compare things like median housing price to median income to see that Americans are poorer than they used to be. Food and other consumable items are down in price compared to incomes, but they are more than made up for by the increased cost of assets like housing, as well as healthcare and education.Brendan Golledge

    Some Americans are poorer than they used to be. My home is 12 years old. It's gone up 250% in value. I'm selling this year and am going to make hundreds of thousands in profit. That more than makes up for the increased cost in food and healthcare. There are millions of Americans like me too.
  • The Christian narrative
    Firstly, that would be a world. Secondly, what do you mean by paradise? That just begs the question: you’re appealing to a vague “Utopia”.Bob Ross

    A vague utopia? If you were god, THIS would be the world you come up with? How about a world where we don't have to kill other creatures to survive? A world without physical pain? A world without sickness? Etc.

    "There’s nothing wrong with that: in fact, you should do that. Why? Because the retribution was paid and they have rehabilitated themselves: they gave you the $20 back and are sincerely sorry."

    But they still robbed me and stole from me! Even if they pay the money back, I was violated! Should they not pay for that?

    "Now, if they hadn’t paid the $20 back but you knew they stole it, then just forgiving them would be mercy at the expense of justice; and if they pay you the $20 back but aren’t sorry about it then they need rehabilitation which would normally be in the form of a punishment for something like that."

    But suppose they were sorry for it and told me they spent the $20 on booze and they can't afford to pay me back because they need to feed their kids. Should they be punished for not paying me back, even if they're sorry? What is twenty bucks to me? I would still forgive them. Is that wrong?
  • The Christian narrative
    You can't pardon the person that victimized you and be just: that would be mercy at the expense of justice.Bob Ross

    Suppose someone mugged me and stole $20 bucks and then a day later ran into me again, broke down crying, apologized and gave me the $20 back. Should I call the police on them? What would be the point of punishing them? I would forgive them and move on. What's wrong with that?
  • The Old Testament Evil
    Allowing for evil is necessary when creating a good world. A world with natural laws allows for natural evil; a world with persons allows for person evil.Bob Ross

    Why create a natural world at all? Why not create a paradise without suffering or scarcity?
  • Gun Control
    Those who want "gun control" are simply saying that guns should be restricted to a certain set of people. That is, they favor a monopoly of coercion. What is a monopoly of coercion? It is, by definition, a tyranny. So those who favor gun control favor tyranny.Leontiskos

    Substitute guns with "nuclear weapons". Are you really trying to say that people who favor nuclear weapon control favor tyranny?
  • Consciousness is Fundamental
    Is information processing possible without an observer to interpret the results? A person using an abacus is processing information with it. Let's say the abacus beads are moving in pattern xyz. What if that same abacus is now falling out of plane and the beads are moving back and forth from air currents also in pattern xyz? Is it processing information?
  • The Christian narrative
    To answer that, we would have to pin down exactly what kind of being Jesus is. Is he God? Part of some trinity? The son of God? The son of man? What, exactly, is he?
  • The Christian narrative
    Well, one can point out that Jesus felt the experience of abandonment at the cross.boundless

    Or he acted like he did. Or it never happened at all and the gospel writers wrote it like it did. But let's say it's true that for a day or two he felt abandoned. That's still not much of a sacrifice, is it? I've felt abandoned many times in my life.
  • The "Big Lie" Theory and How It Works in the Modern World
    Republicans believe all sorts of crazy stuff. They're primed to swallow some really kooky bullshit. When I was a kid, they fought tooth and nail to deny smoking was dangerous. Then it was Hillary Clinton had Vince Foster murdered. Followed by Iraq and WMD's (although this was kind of a mainstream lie that a lot of Democrats bought into). Then it was climate change denialism, birtherism, Qanon, pizzagate, a conspiracy to overcount Covid deaths, stolen elections, vaccine denialism, etc.

    But then my party, Democrats, get stumped when someone asks them "what is a woman?", so people in glass houses.
  • Consciousness is Fundamental
    Physicalism aside, if consciousness is fundamental, is there something it's kind to be an LLM?flannel jesus

    That's to say is there something it's like to be a bunch of microchips in action? Maybe. There's something it's like to be a bunch of neurons in action, so I don't have a problem with LLM consciousness, but as an idealist, I have to believe there really aren't microchips and brains either. They're just parts of the dream. In this dream the one mind is dreaming, brains are associated with consciousness. I don't see why microchips can't be.
  • The Christian narrative
    Yes - what was Jesus' sacrifice exactly - a weekend ruined, perhaps? Then back to the all-powerful, omniscient, immortal ruler of all things.Tom Storm

    :100:

    Being scourged and crucified isn't fun, but maybe it's like the movie Palm Springs. If you know you can't die, maybe painful "deaths" are tolerable.
  • Consciousness is Fundamental
    But you wouldn't be sure no matter what, period. There's no possible world where you would even admit the slightest possibility that it's understanding.flannel jesus

    Why would you say that? As an idealist, I think this is all a dream. There's only a cosmic mind and we're all conscious aspects of it. Think of a jigsaw puzzle. The whole puzzle is the one mind, and each of us is a piece of the puzzle. I have no problem with an LLM also being a conscious aspect of the one mind, a jigsaw puzzle piece, if you will. I kind of like the idea, actually.

    You can literally, right now, give it a text it's never seen before and ask it for a summary and it will do a damn good job. Even in the face of this you won't give any ground, meaning you're not the kind of person to give ground on this period, no matter what, in any particle worldflannel jesus

    I think you're confusing me with someone else.