Since Beauty has no available information distinguishing the three states from her point-of-view, she is simply indifferent about which state she is currently in, and so assigns a probability of 1/3 for each awake state. — Andrew M
The probability of first awakening is 0.5 + (0.5 * 0.5) = 0.75. — Michael
My calculation is that expecting that profit is the same as if there were a single $1 bet at even odds that the result of a coin toss will be tails and the coin had a 3/4 probability of coming up tails. To see this, note that in that case the expected profit is
$1 x 3/4 + (-$1) x 1/4 = $0.50 — andrewk
By betting tails, I get to double what I risk only when my profit is guaranteed to double. — Srap Tasmaner
Bet H T Toss H 1 -1 T -1 1
Bet H T Toss H .25 -.25 T -.75 .75
Bet H T Toss H 1 -1 T -1 2
Bet H T Toss H .5 -.5 T -.5 1
The probability that it's Monday given the fact that it's heads/tails — Michael
So put your money where your mouth is. What should you bet? I say bet £1 on heads. — Michael
Sure, but it doesn't mean that tails is twice as likely to occur as heads, which is why these betting examples miss the point. All the betting examples show is that it's better to bet on whichever outcome provides more payouts, which is obvious. — Michael
What I'm saying is that there is no reason for her to have a greater belief that it was tails than heads. When she's asked what her belief is that it was heads the rational answer is 50:50. — Michael
in interpreting the term 'degree of belief' it seems reasonable to make it the probability of tails when betting on a single flip of an unfair coin — andrewk
This is Betting Game 2 from this post. — andrewk
Game 2: At each interview, Beauty bets $1 to guess what coin came up, and loses that dollar if wrong or wins $2 if right. — andrewk
My calculation is that expecting that profit is the same as if there were a single $1 bet at even odds that the result of a coin toss will be tails and the coin had a 3/4 probability of coming up tails. To see this, note that in that case the expected profit is
$1 x 3/4 + (-$1) x 1/4 = $0.50
Hence, in interpreting the term 'degree of belief' it seems reasonable to make it the probability of tails when betting on a single flip of an unfair coin, at which one would have the same expected profit. So under this interpretation of 'degree of belief', the answer is 3/4 for tails, and hence 1/4 for heads. — andrewk
Can you please expand on it — andrewk
1 point for each would also be a Dutch book wouldn't it? — Michael
1 point for successfully guessing heads and 0.5 points for successfully guessing tails (because you get two opportunities — Michael
When awakened Beauty does not know if it is Monday or Tuesday. — Jeremiah
Do you mean that if both people who are asked if it's tails correctly guess tails then that should only be counted as 1 success rather than 2? — Michael
These cases are different because being asked (again) provides you with additional information, whereas it doesn't in the original case. You're going to be asked regardless, and you have no idea if you've been asked before. — Michael
Would you consider the 2/3 debacle an argument against the 1/3 argument and for the 1/2 argument? — Jeremiah
and in the case that it's tails it's only her bet on the last day that's accepted — Michael
The trouble is that we cannot use conditional probabilities. — andrewk
Mon Tue Heads A S Tails A A
But we do not use natural language identities to say non-informative tautologies but to make identifications between words (synonymy relation) and a word and an object (reference relation). — Belter
The Russell predicate most definitely picks out a class: the class of all things that are not members of themselves. This class just doesn't happen to be a set. It simply turns out to be the case that some collections defined by predicates are sets; and others are not. — fishfry
there is no class (as a totality) of those classes which, each taken as a totality, do not belong to themselves. From this I conclude that under certain circumstances a definable collection [Menge] does not form a totality
Let w be the predicate: to be a predicate that cannot be predicated of itself. Can w be predicated of itself? From each answer its opposite follows. Therefore we must conclude that w is not a predicate.
West Cupcake Weekly Advertiser. — Bitter Crank
Kind of my issue with Frege - the assumption is that syntax and semantics is the whole story for natural language, whereas it is not (although it might be for formal languages). — MetaphysicsNow