Where I disagree with Popper is that something needs to be falsifiable in order to be valuable on pain that history is not falsifiable, and that this is the only way we understand how science works — Moliere
That is why I like the modern systems approaches to history. Fukuyama for example offers the counter-examples that would inform this debate about how hierarchical social order should pan out.
There are horses for courses. But then also the deeper balancing principles show through.
So paraphrasing Fukuyama, he says the growing agrarian inequality within a Europe moving towards a continent of nation states and organised capital/property rights – a phase transition in terms of societies organised by the polarity of taxed masses and paid armies – sees a triadic balancing act with the king as its fulcrum.
The king is meant to do the double job of being the chief decider of the day to day but also God's representative of the long-term good here on Earth. There was not yet a proper institutional division of these powers that suited the new sovereign nation political formula – taxing agriculture for the surplus to feed the king's now centralised military. So kings struggled with this legitimacy problem and had to play off the aristocracy against the common folk.
Simply put, the dialectic balance from the king's point of view was deciding whether to side with the down trodden peasants or the entrenched aristocracy. Sweden and Denmark saw kings side with peasants when aristocrats were weak in 18th C. They pushed through land reform. But monarchs went the other way in Russia, Prussia and other parts east of the Elbe from 17th C. This saw the rise of serfdom with the collusion of the moneyed state.
Or giving a finer grain – more hierarchically fleshed out account – he says that during the general period of European state formation, the peasantry didn’t really count as it wasn't organised. The monarch just faced the three levels of social power in the nobility, gentry and the third estate. That is, the lords, small landowners and the city rich. So a four legged balancing act was emerging as industry joined agriculture as the new entropic driver of a nation and its taxable surpluses.
Fukuyama then details the four outcomes of this more complex industrial phase transistion happening even as the agricultural one was still playing out.
First was weak absolutism like the French and Spanish kings. Their nobility kept them in check. Russia manage successful absolutism as the nobility and gentry were tied into the monarchy in way that allowed the upper class to ruthlessly enslave and tax the peasant class.
Hungary and Poland he classes as failed oligarchies where the aristocracy kept the king so weak he couldn’t protect the peasants, who again got exploited to the hilt.
Then England and Denmark developed strong accountable systems with effective balances. Managed to organise militarily while preserving civilian liberty and property rights.
Beyond that, the Dutch republic, Swiss confederation and Prussian monarchy all add to the variety of outcomes seen.
So history does offer its retrospective test in that we can apply a dialectical (or rather triadic systems) frame on what occurred and find that it is all the same general dilemma getting solved in a natural variety of ways.
As the systems view emphasises, developmental histories are not deterministic. They are just constrained by the requirement to stabilise their entropy flows through optimising balances. Accidents of place and time just get either smoothly absorbed into the general outcome, or that particular historical offshoot goes extinct – absorbed into someone else's general entropic flow.
As to Prussia more particularly, Fukuyama says it makes the point that it matters which comes first, the state building or the democracy. Prussia was an example of a strong autocratic state arising before then opening up to modern democracy.
The UK and US were instead democratic ahead of becoming statist, so in fact had a lot of corrupt patronage until they both found social coalitions that could enforced reform. The US heard business complaining about the state of public administration, farmers complaining about the railways, urban reformers complaining about public infrastructure. All coalesced to force institutional change.
Fukuyama says Italy and Greece are soft states that got democracy without a matching internal competition to drive out corrupt public service tendencies.
Or for the fun of it, I will tack on a larger chunk of my notes from his masterful trilogy. The point is that dialectics might be a start. But where we want to end up is being able to see the dialectical difference at the hierarchical or systems level of what is truly general and what is properly accidental in a logic of evolutionary development. And a close study of history does reveal that in terms of the evidence of a set of counterfactuals.
Fukuyama on Hegel’s Prussian bureaucractic state….
The unification under Bismarck led to a stronger model of French state control. No democratic accountability but the Kaiser was only in charge through the filter of national law. Property rights and execution of justice were impartially enforced. This set conditions for rapid German industrialisation. Business could flourish in a stable regulatory setting.
Germany emerged out of a long struggle of fiefdoms, like China’s original Qin dynasty story. War was the organising need that led to meritocratic state order. Business is local in nature, but war is global driver.
Germany had become a fragmented landscape of “stationary bandits” - junkers - living off local peasants and fighting with hired mercenaries. In Prussia, a series of kings gradually centralised control after they started to maintain a standing army.
So control over money and command needed, and that caused the development of an efficient bureaucracy. Prussia became known as the army wth a country. King’s Calvanist puritan creed also a big influence as it led to state education and poor houses. Austerity imposed from the top.
But as Prussia tamed its neighbourhood, favouritism began to replace merit. Prussia lost its 1806 Battle of Jena-Auerstadt to the more modern Napoleonic army. Hegel saw Napoleon ride through Jena and said it was the arrival of fully modern rational state. Human reason become manifest, according to Phenomenology of Spirit and The Philosophy of Right.
In 1807, Prussia’s Stein-Hardenberg reforms saw noble privilege abolished and commoners allowed to compete for posts via public exams. The new aristocracy was based on education and ability over birth. Universities became the pathway to office.
So reforms like France, and like Japan’s Meiji Restoration. Commoners could now buy protected noble property. Social mobility created. The German notion of Bildung, or moral cultivation and education of the self, distilled Kant and other German rationalism.
Prussia was an autocratic and technocratic society, like Singapore. While it had a king, the new legal distinction between public and private meant that the sovereign ruled in the name of the global state - the wish of the people - in an abstracted sense that was enshrined in a scalefree national bureaucracy.
The bureaucracy became its own institutional statehood, with Royal line coming to be marginal. Hegel saw this as the rise of a universal class that represented the whole community.
Prussia’s unification of a Germany achieved in 1871 under chancellor Bismarck. His rule resisted both control by the Kaiser and also the calls for actual democracy. A technocracy in charge.
This became a problem after WW1 as the change to a federal democracy was weakened by the entrenched bureaucracy with its right wing and conservative character. This paved way for Hitler to take the reins. The military had become an isolated caste and stayed outside democratic control, used to being accountable to a Kaiser alone.
In the end, the bureaucratic service survived even the Nazis. Most Prussian civil servants were party members and got purged by the allies. But then had to be rehired to get post-war Germany going - p78.
So Germany - like Japan - got rational state ahead of democracy. Fukuyama says that works better and leads to sturdy, low corruption, tradition. Their industrial base also seems crucial though.