At the same time, the question arises - what next? What is the path? What will be next? What can be offered in return? — Astorre
No wonder the US is now run by a multiply bankrupt property developer and casino owner who then spent 14 years posing as a titan of industry on a reality show where yuppie talent is pitted against itself in a largely arbitrary death match with the worst possible prize of supposedly working for the idiot boss figure. — apokrisis
You see where strong disagreement gets us? Clarity on your question now emerges.
What came after liberal democracy as a pragmatic social enterprise? Oligarchy and idiocracy. Two forces in some kind of systemic balance. But one that is itself completely confused about how that is now meant to work its way through to some new state of world order. Pax Trumpiana. The Nobel for which Donald yearns.
The history lesson goes that two world wars and a great depression created a need for whatever came after the imperial empire world system. Europe and its colonies. The centres of capital and power coupled to its far-flung resource-capturing net and its network of military bases to keep a lid on the native politics. The UK in particular mastered this delicate art of imperial balance. But by the 1940s, its world system was in tatters.
The US had emerged as the world manufacturing giant and so had the capacity to step in and takeover. War had resulted in a new deal at home. Walter Scheidel did a nice book explaining how big wars are always the "Great Leveler" that result in the breaking down of wealth and redistributing it back to the people. So the US had instituted a new notion of social democracy where there was high taxes, big infrastructure investment and the creation of social safety nets.
Corporations were allowed to do their predatory thing and even approach monopoly ownerships – oligarchy – but also they had to be good citizens. Play nice with the trade unions. Clean up after themselves with environmental protections. Become benevolent organisation caring for workers in factory towns, and generally acting with the wider interests of the US community in mind as much as that of their shareholders and desire to extract profit.
This new corporate benevolence could then be the model for the new imperial empire. The UK had already had to make that kind of balancing act during its own reign. That is how it could rule the world by straddling the chokepoints of the world's shipping lanes with a handful of military bases and a small colonial service. The US could update this model by taking over the world's reserve currency from the UK, and its network of bases, then telling the world to go and free trade. Form their own democracies in the corporate mould. The US would run its central political institutions like the UN, World Bank and IMF, sit back and cream off the profits from running the world money system, take care of the job of being the world's policeman and so also controlling that side of the show, and let the world focus on its trade and social development.
Of course existential challenges to this post war accord emerged swiftly. The Cold War and then the oil wars. And also the US couldn't resist squeezing more juice from this imperial lemon. Nixon and Kissinger dropped the gold standard and made the dollar a debt-backed instrument. It tamed the oil producers by turning them into petrodollar investors in the US system. And it reacted like a scalded cat to the Soviet military threat, and that was only partly political theatre given that nuclear power trumps even hydrocarbon power when it comes to its energy density and explosive potential.
Anyway, this was the liberal democratic world order much as we knew it. American getting so rich on dollar hegemony and humming factories that even the working class felt that heady entropic power surging through their veins. Everyone could drive a gas guzzler, feast at the take away, holiday at Disneyland. The rest of the world, bobbing along in the US's wake.
But then things started to come apart in bigger ways. Neo-cons turned up the heat on the communists and their regimes to varying degrees collapsed. The oil trade wars became oil real wars as running a resource economy is the kind of monopolistic enterprise that sets an oligarchy against its people. Autocrats have to found so the wealth can get properly plundered.
Neo-liberalism also followed as the oligarchs demanded that the global political restrictions on capital – ie: debt creation – should be lifted in the the same way that the local political restrictions on resource exploitation were being systematically dealt with.
So the capitalist beast was constantly evolving. The US working class had been the winners of a phase of greater social democracy. But the US oligarchy eventually shed any pretence of a social conscience and financialised its own people too. The US debt was allowed to explode. House ownership became leveraged speculation. Life became whatever minimum wage would get you, or how much the new financial recklessness felt you could afford to borrow.
All this sets us up for the modern day. The true coming apart of the oligarchs vs the idiocracy.
The fall of Communism saw Russia turned into an autocrat-run oil exporter with a new oligarch class who had stolen the state infrastructure for its monopolistic profits. Putin was KGB and had just done his 1997 doctorate on oil politics. Literally. "A degree in economics at the Saint Petersburg Mining University [where his thesis was] on energy dependencies and their instrumentalisation in foreign policy." Putin had a political vision and his gang of thieves.
This oligarchy had its own idiocracy in the form of information autocracy. Putin just had to make his voters believe that they lived in a well-run country, with an ancient identity, and where the vote wasn't rigged, the media not managed.
China went a more traditional route based off its own long history. Trade it understood. Manufacturing it could learn. Financialisation was right up its street and it was quite happy to run up a national debt at a rate way exceeding even the US. Oligarchy was sort of managed by kinship relations and purges. Then the same kind of informational autocracy was practiced, backed by relatively competent rather than wildly corrupt secret policing.
The US meanwhile was not a mere natural resource play, nor a Johnny come lately manufacturing play. It was now a full on capital play. And on top of that, an information technology play. The US citizen, and indeed the world citizen, was there to be tapped for their debt creation and now their personal data. There was a virtual world being born where anything was free to be the case. An apparently costless and frictionless world where money and resources no longer really mattered.
The price of entry was only the tiniest fraction of a few cents, or teaspoons off a barrel of oil. But the catch was that it was now a price extracted across the entirety of absolutely everything that was making you feel like a private and free individual – a paid-up member of the liberal democratic compact. Social media in particular gets to grab your body and soul. And the new super-oligarchs were the ones who had those information tech monopolies.
So the US has the dollar and that – as debt creation – drains the wealth out of every area of life it touches. We live in housing developments and eat at fast food joints that are as drained of social capital as they are of physical substance. Then tech comes in over the top of that with its promise of the new infinite frontier of a cyber reality. It becomes predatory even on the financial level of oligarchy as any kind of sensible stock market pricing and CEO salary setting gets tossed out the window. Wall Street gets taken for a ride and crypto currency mops up the rest.
And so the new politics of the idiocractic state come into view.
Russian and China have informational autocracies where the citizens must to some genuine degree believe in the world as it is being painted for them. Incredible competence is required to maintain the collective fiction that as a society, it is winning bigly. And something has to be delivered for real as evidence. In China's case, actual economic power in return for a shittier life – although one still much freer and more prosperous than that of its recent memory under Mao. And in Russia's case, a few decades of US investment in jacking up its oil fields coupled to a steady rebuilding of its suddenly abandoned Soviet empire, until Ukraine became the step looking like the one that went too far.
But the US is in a quite different position. Sure, it also has always been a propaganda state. It had to cement its own identity having been started rather abruptly without a solid history. It had its founding myth of being the home of the free and the dispossessed. Raise the flag and swear your allegiance.
It rode the liberal democratic good times and grabbed the reins from Imperial Britain when it really didn't even have another sensible choice. It struck a deal stacked in its own favour, and off things went for another 50 years.
The post-war paradigm of responsible corporations and unionised labour gradually evaporated. The ownership of the world financial and military apparatus started to fall into the hands of a new oligarch class – a mindset with its own political and social theories. The information revolution was now in full swing and out-pacing the manufacturing revolution. What the US debt was financing now was not merely a world based on consumers, but on a world based on an influencer and drop-shipping economy.
Life lived as a reality show. Life as you would live it in a costless and frictionless Universe. Life lived where violent polarisation was the daily entertainment rather than a rationally-framed dialectic. The life lived as an idiocracy of opinions and alternative facts. A life drained of the pragmatic realism which had been connecting the two sides of the existential equation – the physical energy consumed for the social meaning extracted – in some degree of flourishing balance.
So the current recipe is oligarchy and idiocracy. Life as unbounded resource extraction and a soul-devouring reality show. A disconnection that looks fatal, but which could run on for as long as a big enough narcissistic incompetent fool can be found to front it. The illusion of a strong man in charge.
Putin was a strong man with a vision of how to glue things together. Pump the oil and don't alarm the voters. As long as they believe that it is only oligarchs now falling out of windows, and the state barely touches on their lives as the oil and gas gets piped abroad, then the system ticks along in some sort of stable equilibrium.
Xi is another strong man – although rumours of his demise grow daily – who tightened up on China's mercantilist exploitation of the US's 1940s free market play. And competent implementation keeps that show on the road. Manufactured goods flow freely and China's population has full bellies. Things work on a level that is tolerable, and the scope of dissent severely limited.
Trump is then exactly what a idiocracy might wish for. Although his oligarch backers didn't quite bargain for his actual level of incompetence, and all those that he would appoint to jobs in his second term.
But then also, the US oligarch class is itself marked by its own grave incompetence. Whether tech bro left or Christo-fascist right, it lives in the same idiocracy. The same detachment from the pragmatic reality of what actually makes for a well-functioning society. We see this in Musk and Vance. We see this in the Supreme Court. We see it in the guy who sells pillows and all the other idiots who suddenly get promoted to multi-billionaire hood by the simple fact of living in an economy structure to be a wealth and debt ratchet. The idiots who never had a clue feel they get to have the super-sized vote on how the world ought to be run.
And why not if you believe that reality is a costless and frictionless realm? Your hopes and fears are what become must populate that limitless landscape. Idiocratic society where narcissistic incompetence become something that works. Something that is fast becoming implemented over all scales of US society as hierarchy theory says it must.
Trump is just giving away the Imperial US Empire you would think. And why not? Idiocracy seems the bigger prize now. The costless and frictionless landscape where polarisation drives the clicks. The new owners of the means of production are getting rich beyond imagination as the cost and the friction has been matchingly shrunk below the level of popular comprehension.
The reality show is eating the voters alive. The real world still exists somewhere in the middle of all the information and entropification. But capital flows and the entropic flows are now a dance taking place over the socially-shared horizon. The cost and the friction can't be seen. And that creates the stability – at least for a while – of a collective state of delusion.