• Eugen
    702
    Lionel Messi (one of the best football/soccer players) will live forever and he has as an aim to cross a sitting motionless ball once/day, every day. The procedure is extremely banal for almost anyone of us, let alone Messi! So here are the premises:
    1. Messi’s individual skills remain in the same parameters (with ups and downs). Same his mental and physical health.
    2. His motivation to hit the ball every time is high, and one miss is considered a very grave act by Messi, which will do anything he can to avoid repeating the shameful mistake.
    3. Finally, the natural environment will remain in the same parameters as those we have today.
    So in this conditions, Messi has to hit (avoid crossing besides the ball) the ball once/day for an eternity. Trivial! Even though the probabilities to miss the ball are insignificant, he will miss the ball for sure. Very rare, but he will. Actually, the theory says he’ll miss the ball 100 times in a row, a 100000000 times in a row and even more. Here’s the point where it gets problematic, because the situation becomes too counter-intuitive even for a case that involves the infinite and probabilities.
    On one hand it is so hard to believe that such a great player, or for that matter of fact even us, with a high motivation, health and no super-natural phenomena around can do such a hudge mistake. A trillion times in a row!!! On the other hand, can we ever say that there’s a point where 0% probability of missing the ball is reached?
    I refused to add numbers to this equation because, in contrast to dices or coins issues, here we add more relative elements, like the players’ skills or motivation, but after all we talk the same about some parameters and intervals, even that we cannot add them a specific number.
    My intuition says that there might be some superior and inferior limits (eg. Messi will miss no more than 2-5 times in a row)and maybe this is related to the causal-deterministic aspect induced by man. What do you think? I would like to know as many opinions as you can have.
  • SophistiCat
    2.2k
    You are making two mistakes:

    1. Suppressed premises. You are assuming that your scenario is a stochastic process with a non-zero probability of failure on each trial. It doesn't have to be. There is no law of logic or nature that says that it has to be this way. It's just an assumption. It could be, for example, that your footballer cannot ever miss more than twice in a row. It's a more complicated model, to be sure, but it's a possible model.

    2. You are over-awed by your intuitions. Our intuitions are passable for everyday, familiar occurrences, but when faced with something as incomprehensible to the imagination as infinity, your intuitions are of little help. Trust your reason, not your gut feelings.
  • Eugen
    702
    I have to admit that your answer was intriguing and the fact that I reply so late is that I wanted to lay on sheet an outlined idea. So I’m going to begin with point 2 of your reply. It is not about my gut feelings. I can accept the idea of a billion tails in a row because nothing limits this possibility, but when it comes to other things, like the example I’ve mentioned, it’s different – if a big motivated player who scores in big competitions and wins titles can’t hit the ball in the back of his yard for ten years in a row simply because probabilities rules sounds nuts and I simply don’t believe it. Not in a bllinfinite! After all it is a paradigm shift and a contradiction; he could be one of the best players in the world, but he cannot touch a ball (contradiction). So it’s not about the talent and hard-working, it is about probabilities (paradigm shift).
    Now, you might say (and you did at the point 1) that it might not be a stochastic system at all. Well, that was the intriguing part for me but I’ll talk about it a bit later.
    Meanwhile, I’ve been thinking to some systems. E.G.:
    1. Tossing a coin – it’s all about probabilities
    2. Poker game. Well, you can have the best poker player in the world losing a billion times in a row against a rookie, simple because his adversary had a first hand of full aces a billion times in a row (100% winning hand).
    3. Let’s go back to coins. Let’s presume that someone’s tossing a coin infinite, but this time his purpose is to have tails all the time.
    In order to achieve this aim he has to develop a throwing technique - e.g. coin spins twice in air and obtain tails -(presuming this is possible like in sports), so he starts training and eventually he becomes a professional at tossing coins. Now, my first query is which of the following statements is right?
    a) We say that he’ll improve his chances of being successful by training, meaning he’s getting the chances of hitting tails are getting higher. The player is never going to be perfect, so he’ll eventually reach a limit in his potential. In this case he will evolve from 50% chances at every try to 99,9%. in an infinite throwings, he has no limit in missing.
    b) But my opinion is that this is not about the chances anymore and by improving the technique actually translates in having a success rate. Let’s say, in his worst day he can’t miss more than 3/10. Not being perfect though, he’ll miss 1/10. So, if his value oscillates between A (worst shape), B (best shape), implies results between C (7/10 success) and D (9/10 success) - limits in infinite.
    My second question would be why a) or why b)?
    Back to the intriguing part. After all, if we have just 99% knowledge about the state of the elements of a system, isn’t fair to say 1% is in the hand of chance and that system is stochastic one as in the poker game for example?
    I’ll repeat the questions:
    1. Improving chances (probabilities) or reach a success rate?
    2. What are the arguments for you choice?
    3. Aren’t all the systems where we don't have 100% information about the present elements in it a stochastic one?
    4. If you choose ,,success rate” and your questions 3’s answer is yes, than how can limits survive in a stochastic system?

    NB: I exclude quantum mechanics and probabilities dictated by subatomic randomness.
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