An interesting look into the lead-up to the Ukraine conflict through analysis of WikiLeaks documents:



Main talking points:
- Were Western politicians aware of the risk of conflict in Ukraine?
- Was Ukraine's ascension into NATO really planned?
- Russian and German viewpoints.

Again what is revealed is that a) NATO isn’t a rubber stamp for US policy, which again and again has disappointed Washington and b) a lot has happened since 2010.

After all Sweden is the other example of how NATO is an international defence pact and not simply the extension (rubber stamp) of US policy. If it’s hard for Sweden, it surely is for Ukraine.

Besides, in the next NATO summit we can observe if Sweden finally gets in and Ukraine gets the path to NATO. (When there is kind of cessation of hostilities)

Actually Putin’s weakness can change things.

In my opinion it clearly shows the West's culpability in this conflict.

A simple show of force by Russia would have put Ukrainian aspirations to NATO into limbo. Just like the Turkey’s aspirations into EU are.

NATO isn’t the rubber stamp of US policy as you think.

And Sweden and Finland would not have joined (or tried to join) NATO if not for Feb 24th invasion.

Russia attacked Ukraine to annex territory, not to offset NATO enlargement, because it didn’t have to attack Ukraine for that not to happen. NATO enlargement is for Russia here as is spreading democracy is in US foreign interventions. A rosy reason for aggression (as if it would have been for self defense).

And if Russia succeeded in absorbing/subjugating Ukraine, it would then have four more NATO countries at its borders!

Yes, haha, that’s the perpetual problem in pushing your borders further for ”protection” and ”safety”.

A simple show of force by Russia would have put Ukrainian aspirations to NATO into limbo. — ssu

Russia provided that show of force the same year NATO proclaimed its intention to incorporate Ukraine and Georgia. So I guess it's not that 'simple'.

And if Russia succeeded in absorbing/subjugating Ukraine, it would then have four more NATO countries at its borders! — SophistiCat

There's no evidence that the Russians intended to absorb or subjugate Ukraine.

Since 2008 the Russians have argued for a neutral Ukraine, and even as recently as March/April 2022, during the peace talks which the United States shut down, a neutral Ukraine was still on the table.

Russia provided that show of force the same year NATO proclaimed its intention to incorporate Ukraine and Georgia. So I guess it's not that 'simple'. — Tzeentch

That talks before Feb 24th show this quite obviously. It wouldn’t have been Hungary, it would also have been Germany. Just as a decade earlier the Wikileaks papers told how US official saw ”a lot of work” to be done then with Germany. Well, that field of work existed prior to the full invasion also.

It is that simple.

You said it was "as simple" as a show of force. The show of force was provided, and the Americans pushed ahead with their plans anyway. Your premise is nonsense.

Since 2008 the Russians have argued for a neutral Ukraine, and even as recently as March/April 2022, during the peace talks which the United States shut down, a neutral Ukraine was still on the table. — Tzeentch

You seem to have forgotten that in the meantime Russia took part of Ukraine (Crimea) by force, breaking the Budapest Memorandum. Have it not occurred to you that annexing a teritory of another country somewhat lowers the possibility of that country remaining neutral to you?

Ough.

Russia reducing its presence at nuclear plant, says Ukraine
^{— Luke Harding · The Guardian · Jun 30, 2023}

The agency’s chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has alleged Moscow has approved a plan to blow up the station and has mined four out of six power units, as well as a cooling pond. Last week Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Russia was plotting a “terrorist attack”.

The Kremlin does have a thing with radioactives.

Comments in brief:

More Russians Questioning Putin After Wagner Revolt
^{— Veuer via NBC · Jun 30, 2023 · 1m:11s}

Maybe the blogger should ask whether the Ukrainians really are "our enemies". (Or were at least.) Speak up. The Kremlin is Russia's. Russia ain't Putin's.

‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord
^{— Andrew Roth · The Guardian · Jul 1, 2023}

Here we go again (again), on time ...

Russia's top diplomat Lavrov sees no reason to extend Black Sea grain deal (news version)
Russia's top diplomat Lavrov sees no reason to extend Black Sea grain deal (article version)
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Michelle Nichols, Andrew Osborn, Grant McCool · Reuters · Jun 30, 2023}

The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative last July to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine - something it calls “a special military operation” - and its blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

If the Black Sea Initiative ceases to operate, we will provide grain deliveries of a comparable or larger size to the poorest countries at our own expense, free of charge. — Lavrov

If they can and are willing to send the food free of charge, then I'm confident no one will stop them. Free to go ahead. :up:

OK, as food exports go, there was a bit of commotion a few months back, but Poland Hungary Slovakia aren't likely to get in the way here. (WSJ · Sep 17, 2022, Al Jazeera · Apr 19, 2023.) :)

As mentioned, it's just the Kremlin standing in the way of the Ukrainian food shipments. Without Crimea, they might have less capability to do so, yet likely retain those food shipments (free of charge or not).

The (sort of) ultimatum put forth by the Kremlin seems to list two options:

• no blockade of Ukrainian food shipments: reconnect Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT; restart Tolyatti-Pivdennyi ammonia pipeline; resume supplies of agricultural machinery and parts to Russia; lift restrictions on insurance and reinsurance; unblock assets + accounts of Russian companies involved in food + fertiliser exports
• Russian blockade of Ukrainian food shipments; Russia exports some grain free of charge

The United Nations on Friday said it was concerned no new ships had been registered under the Black Sea deal since June 26 - despite applications being made by 29 vessels - and called on all parties to “to commit to the continuation and effective implementation of the agreement without further delay.” — Reuters · Jun 30, 2023

Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met
^{— EURACTIV and Reuters · May 26, 2023}

The ("outrageous") sanctions were put in place due to the (outrageous) invasion, hence of (other) relevance.

Prigozhin's mutiny smells so much as a Russian feint and exquisite irony that the "US ordered Ukraine not to use mutiny in Russia to stage provocations, says Lavrov" https://tass.com/politics/1640025

Seems you have no understanding of how NATO works.

- "ordered" :)

A very good, detailed synopsis of what just happened:



Also goes well through what a coup is (which has been debated here) and also gives a good description of the actual combat that took place.

"ordered" doesn't sound unexpected from Lavrov, the rest does. Especially if one takes the Amerikans to be warmongerers and this attempted coup as something staged by the Russians.

There's no evidence that the Russians intended to absorb or subjugate Ukraine. — Tzeentch

Here is how people focused on security concerns reason over "intentions":
During his annual review of Russia's foreign policy January 22-23 (ref B), Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed that Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO, particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military threat. While Russia might believe statements from the West that NATO was not directed against Russia, when one looked at recent military activities in NATO countries (establishment of U.S. forward operating locations, etc. they had to be evaluated not by stated intentions but by potential.


Security concerns can be triggered by potential not just by "intentions" (BTW among Mearsheimer's offensive realism tenets there are "States can never be certain of the intentions of other states" and "States are rational actors, capable of coming up with sound strategies that maximize their prospects for survival" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_realism). History, ambitions, military capability, economic leverage and aggressive attitude of Russia especially under Putin inside and outside Russia were enough to trigger security concerns.
Talking about intentions (the initial march toward Kiev's intentions, Putin's intentions, Prigozhin's mutiny intentions) is not all that matters. Also the US intentions were to spread democracy in the rest of the World.

On a backdrop of supposed NATO-phobia, deNazification, ongoing bombing of civilians, ...

Moscow says 700,000 children from Ukraine conflict zones now in Russia
^{— Lidia Kelly, Michael Perry · Reuters · Jul 3, 2023}

In July 2022, the United States estimated that Russia "forcibly deported" 260,000 children, while Ukraine's Ministry of Integration of Occupied Territories, says 19,492 Ukrainian children are currently considered illegally deported.

The Children Russia Kidnapped ^{(cache)
— Lauren Wolfe · The Atlantic · Jul 1, 2023}

Ulyanovsk and Krasnoyarsk (different regions) have a new political candidate:

"Merchant of Death" Viktor Bout, Russian arms dealer freed in swap for Brittney Griner, is running for office
^{— Haley Ott, Caitlin Yilek · CBS · Jul 3, 2023}

Mr. Bout said in a recent interview from his jail cell: “If you are going to apply the same standards to me, then you are going to have to jail all those arms dealers in America, who are sending the arms and ending up killing Americans…it’s a double standard. It’s hypocrisy.” — The Legal vs. the Illegal Arms Trade (Harvey Morris · New York Times · Apr 6, 2012)

Maybe he has a point there.

Motyl opines:

America’s leading ‘realist’ keeps getting Russia wrong
^{— Alexander J Motyl · The Hill · Jul 4, 2023}

There really do seem go be good guys and bad guys in this conflict. Russia, China, and Iran are the Axis powers, while U.S. and other democracies are the Allies.

, long ago, the thread established that all are bad. ;)

Some recent moves:

Homemade or imported - France and Germany have different strategies on air defence systems
^{— euronews · Jun 29, 2023 · 2m}
Neutral Switzerland and Austria will join European air defense project
^{— AP · Jul 4, 2023}

Proceeding from the UN ^{Mar 2014, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Feb 2023} ...

If Ukraine declares a no-fly-zone in their airspace (except for whatever they approve), then it's more or less settled, although there aren't any "higher authorities" to enforce that. Others may acknowledge or otherwise follow suit (like neighbors, the EU, NATO, the UN).

Sticking strictly to Ukrainian airspace, maybe it's time to take an enforced no-fly-zone seriously, bring it up seriously among those capable of doing so? Keep the Ukrainian skies (and just those) clear of uncleared attackers invaders bombers rockets, destruction from above?

What remains is risk assessment, implementation details, whatever. As far as I can tell, the only deterrent has been fear of what the Kremlin might do (risk assessment). We've now seen a year's worth of what the invader does, and the UN + the international community have spoken (repeatedly). Implementation details could likely be discussed for a long while, e.g. what if someone launches a surface-to-air missile against an enforcing plane? What say you? Forget it? Worthwhile taking up among the capable? ...?

Looks like the Kremlin is taking over Wagner's lucrative businesses.

‘It is like a virus that spreads’: business as usual for Wagner group’s extensive Africa network
^{— Jason Burke · The Guardian · Jul 6, 2023}

Putin Wants Fealty, and He’s Found It in Africa
^{— Roger Cohen · The New York Times · Dec 27, 2022}

This would effectively cement what one Western ambassador called the Central African Republic’s status as a “vassal state” of the Kremlin.

Today, the Wagner shock troops form a Praetorian Guard for Mr. Touadéra, who is also protected by Rwandan forces, in return for an untaxed license to exploit and export diamonds, gold and timber from virgin forests and from Russian mining interests in the country’s central region.

France this month completed the withdrawal of all of its forces from the Central African Republic. Six years ago, they numbered more than 1,600.
Asked about this decision, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces sent a statement blaming Central African authorities for choosing to work with a “nonstate actor, the Wagner Group, that regularly commits violence and abuses toward the civilian population and is a for-profit enterprise whose business model is based on the plundering of local resources.”

No longer quite a "nonstate actor".

So the Russians have mined the nuclear power plant. Luckily winds can blow to the east and northeast.

But if Putin really wants to create a wasteland…

Since the beginning of this, I'm more confused about what's going on over there. Is this going to be like a hundred years war where eventually nobody remembers how it started?

Misc news...

Xi Jinping warned Vladimir Putin against nuclear attack in Ukraine
^{— Max Seddon, James Kynge, John Paul Rathbone, Felicia Schwartz, Joe Leahy, Nian Liu · Financial Times · Jul 5, 2023}
Kremlin: We can't confirm report that China's Xi warned Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Jul 5, 2023}

He-said-she-said :D

‘You can never become a Westerner:’ China’s top diplomat urges Japan and South Korea to align with Beijing and ‘revitalize Asia’
^{— Nectar Gan · CNN · Jul 5, 2023 (some comments by Joel Atkinson)}
Don’t try to be like Westerners – China’s top diplomat
^{— RT · Jul 5, 2023}
China dismisses criticism of top diplomat’s comments appearing to push for race-based alliance
^{— AP · Jul 5, 2023}

No matter how blonde you dye your hair, how sharp you shape your nose, you can never become a European or American, you can never become a Westerner. We must know where our roots lie. — Wang Yi

Don't Yi's comments carry some implicit admissions/implications?
Not sure why Koreans and Japanese would want to "become Westerners" (they should feel free to do whatever, join the Uyghurs or talk democracy if that's their thing).
There are other reasons at play.
Apologies for the side-track.

As one can say that the war started in 2014, it’s still quite some time to be as long as the 30-years war. But likely the high tempo of this conventional war means that this war now will be measured in years and months. Not decades.

Insurgencies and other low level conflicts can endure for centuries. Like just how long have the muslims in the Phillipines, the Moros, fought against occupiers? It has been the Spanish, the Americans, the Japanese (briefly) and now the Phillipines government who have fought against them. Hopefully now peace could prevail.

Apologies for the side-track. — jorndoe

It’s an interesting issue, but perhaps on another thread about US-Chinese tensions.

Hope we don’t have a thread like ”The war in Taiwan” in the future.

Lukashenko says Prigozhin is in St Petersburg.

I think this mutiny hasn’t reached it’s conclusion yet.