Some thoughts: maybe the coup in Niger (after the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso), will make France less hesitant against the Russians now. So either hit back in Niger and try to take down the Wagnerites (maybe by drawing more of them from East Europe first), or contribute more in Ukraine? https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/18/russian-mercenaries-are-pushing-france-out-of-central-africa/

maybe the coup in Niger (after the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso), will make France less hesitant against the Russians now. — neomac

If either France or the US will say by a high ranking diplomat or official that Wagner and Russia has been involved, that surely would show that they are on the warfoot with Russia in Africa. If they don't say that, it tells something also.

And as Wagner is a private company and the members are mercenaries, it's not an escalation to attack them as would be let's say Russia military advisors of the armed forces or deployed Russian troops. This happened with Wagner and US forces coming into blows in a fight on an Conoco oil installation in Syria.

Intensive military preparations are underway in the West; enormous sums of money are being invested in this. It is necessary to understand that, in the capitalist world, nobody will tie their assets up in [long-term investments in costly] weaponry and in beefing up the ranks of the army for nothing. So, one can make an unambiguous conclusion: The possibility of a direct military clash with NATO in the future is becoming more and more evident. — Viktor Khrenin · TASS · Aug 15, 2023

Well, considerable resources have gone to Ukraine. Weaponry production has been up'd here and there due to supplying Ukraine. (The providers haven't particularly moved toward wartime-alike economy.) Various democracies, the UN, and NATO officials have condemned the invasion and taken steps to help the defender.

It is no accident that the Republic of Belarus is considering returning tactical nuclear weapons to its soil as a potent element of strategic containment. — Viktor Khrenin · TASS · Aug 15, 2023

"A direct military clash" with Ukraine was already initiated by the Kremlin, which has consequences. :shrug: The Kremlin and Minsk are hardly the victims here. Should Belarus become a genuine democracy, where political opposition wouldn't have to be in exile, the situation would likely be different.

The sanctions announced today are in addition to sanctions previously imposed on 13 Belarusian individuals and entities, including Belarusian Minister of Defence Viktor Khrenin, who have played a role of significant strategic importance to Russia by allowing Russia to launch attacks from Belarus.
The Belarusian Government allowed Russian military forces to train in their country for weeks ahead of the invasion. Since then, it has allowed Russia to fire ballistic missiles from Belarus into Ukraine, enabled the transport of Russian military personnel, heavy weapons and tanks into Ukraine, provided refuelling points in Belarus for Russian military aircraft and stored Russian weapons and military equipment. — Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs · Mar 25, 2022

any aggression against Russia's neighbour and close ally Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia — Putin (paraphrased) · Reuters · Jul 22, 2023

Much emanates from the invasion; ironically, Putin's Russia has breathed some life into NATO. I suppose NATO and Russia/Belarus could still "clash" due to the invasion of Ukraine despite much tiptoeing. (And an attack on Poland Finland Lithuania Romania would be a "clash", for example.)

Russia opens a criminal investigation into a leader of a prominent election watchdog
^{— AP · Aug 17, 2023}

Nothing new I guess, "foreign agent" and "undesirable" have become go-to's for doing away with transparency and opposition. Regress. They're a democracy-monitor, how dangerous can they be?

There are no and never have been any grass roots opposition movements in Russia and it's near abroad. None. Everything is CIA/Western backed covert operations for Putin. And when you repeat the lie again and again, you will start to believe it yourself. What else could you admit to yourself later?

:) (where's that photo from anyway?)

Conversely, Ukraine had (and has) international and domestic monitors. I guess that would end if they were to be assimilated by Russia.

(where's that photo from anyway?) — jorndoe

That's actually from Putin's firm ally, Belarus. And people there not being happy about their leader. But now I guess everything is fine.

Conversely, Ukraine had (and has) international and domestic monitors. I guess that would end if they were to be assimilated by Russia. — jorndoe

If Ukrainian elections would be rigged, yes, we would know about it. I'm pretty confident about that.

And in Ukraine the war has done something which the WW2 did in Finland, it ended the political quarrel about language. And also the real threat from the far right (which actually was the worst prior to 2014) has in my view subsided to a Russian talking point (and even the Russian's aren't talking about denazification so much).

Perhaps in my view the only real obstacle is for Ukraine is to do away with the corruption. You see, a lot of money is now pured to the country and if (when) the war is over, the West will likely help with the reconstruction effort. Here lies the possibility of a problem: if this is done without supervision, it will just creat rampant corruption as all the money poured into Afghanistan did. If Ukraine is left to itself, this might be the hardest problem afterwards. And as someone observed: if Russia then stay basically where it is now, who will genuinely invest in the country? The fear of the war reigniting will be there. Hence Western security guarantees will be needed then.

Drennan opines:

Only one thing will bring Putin to ceasefire: Crimea
^{— Patrick Drennan · The Hill · Aug 17, 2023}

At least a fairly straightforward account of what's been going on.
Worth adding that Stalin (in office 1922-1952) paved the way rather effectively by replacing locals with Russians in Crimea (called ethnic genocide/cleansing by some). ^{1, 2, 3, 4}
Incidentally, Mearsheimer and Drennan agree that Crimea is important to Putin.

Crimea is worth much more to Russians than to Ukraine. On the other hand, militarily it will be easier to take back Crimea than Donbass. So I would not be surprised if the final treaty involves swapping one for the other.

2,001 respondents throughout non-occupied Ukraine aged 18 or older took part in the survey

Analytical report based on the results of WAR, PEACE, VICTORY, AND FUTURE SURVEY
^{— OPORA · Jul 27, 2023}

78% of Ukrainians share the idea that all Russians are accountable for the aggression against Ukraine :/ (bad, and differs from how Zelenskyy has pointed at Putin + team explicitly — growing hate)

70% of Ukrainians consider it crucial for all the territories to be liberated from the enemy to call it a victory in the war

57% of Ukrainians want to punish everyone who was directly involved in planning, approving, arranging, and committing the war crimes

68% of Ukrainians think that the prosecution and punishment of the criminals should be subject to the national and international laws

95% of Ukrainians expect that the state will insist on Russia compensating for the losses caused during the war

40% of Ukrainians believe that reparations will actually be paid (that seems optimistic, yet many Ukrainians are optimistic in other questions as well)

Crimea is worth much more to Russians than to Ukraine. — Jabberwock

How so?

With Crimea, Russia can easily block (as it does) sea routes Ukraine is quite dependent, as we have seen. You see, the route from Odessa and other ports (and we have to forget ports in the Azov sea) and any sea route to them is easily inside the range of even the land based K-300P Bastion anti-ship missile system.

Yet the Black Sea isn't the only route to global sea trade for Russia and even without Crimea, Russia still would have it's ports in Novorossiysk among others in the Black Sea.

The Novorossiysk port in Russia (proper) on the Black Sea. Quite large, actually:


And the Russian fleet has a military naval base there already:


If your argument is that Russia needs Crimea for it's imperial domain, then I agree. For Russia to show that it can unify all Russians living now in various other sovereign states back to mother Russia, sure, Crimea is great achievement in furthering this ideal. Especially for Putin it was the victory he can boast about. But once you get something, usually the appetite grows and there's many Russians still out of Russia. Comes to mind how Hitler viewed the Volksdeutsche and had the policy of Heim ins Reich.

Among all, it would be simply a humilitian for a country that think of itself as an natural Empire. Yes, that would be difficult for a country that thinks it's still a Superpower.

On the other hand, militarily it will be easier to take back Crimea than Donbass. — Jabberwock

Well, to literally get landforces into Crimea is difficult. In this map triangles show where Russia has built fortifications. A lot of trenches and dragons teeth in the Crimea too now.

With Crimea, Russia can easily block (as it does) sea routes Ukraine is quite dependent, as we have seen. You see, the route from Odessa and other ports (and we have to forget ports in the Azov sea) and any sea route to them is easily inside the range of even the land based K-300P Bastion anti-ship missile system. — ssu

I am assuming that the treaty actually ends the war (i.e. Russia cannot continue it in a near future, at least not until Ukraine is in NATO). The population in Crimea is mostly Russians, so it would be quite difficult to integrate after the war. As you write, for Russia it is a prized jewel of the empire, losing Sevastopol would be a hard blow; for Ukraine not so much.

Well, to literally get landforces into Crimea is difficult. In this map triangles show where Russia has built fortifications. A lot of trenches and dragons teeth in the Crimea too now. — ssu

But if you have Zaporozhia, it is quite easy to cut off supplies from Crimea - just take down the Kerch Bridge. That is what the current offensive is about.

Crimea is important also for its underwater resources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/world/europe/in-taking-crimea-putin-gains-a-sea-of-fuel-reserves.html
https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2014/05/27/the-energy-dimensions-of-russias-annexation-of-crimea/index.html

I mean, the CIA probably has given at least some sort of minor support to most of these movements but that hardly means it's decisive or even moved the needle. It's like Russia's whopping $117,000 in shitty anti-Clinton ad buys in 2016 (which they paid for in roubles, lol, that'd be like 200 million roubles now too, their currency is tanking hard). Ok, so they did it, but it probably did fuck all. (Whereas the DNC email hack was actually effective.)

Just another day in Ukraine.

Seven dead including six-year-old girl as Russian missile hits center of Ukraine’s Chernihiv city
^{— Maria Kostenko, Sarah Dean, Sophie Tanno · CNN · Aug 19, 2023}

A Russian missile hit right in the center of the city, in our Chernihiv. A square, the polytechnic university, a theater. — Zelenskyy

Ukrainian air force reportedly shot down 15 of 17 Iranian-made Shahed drones overnight. ("sitting ducks with some repellent")

Not military target.
Plain intimidation (however deadly)? Spite?
One target-picking method has been reported before: Jun 28, 2023.


(nah, don't expect insurance to cover the damaged cars :grin:)

In continuation from an Aug 17, 2023 comment...

Bulgarian minister: 'We cannot rule out' clash between NATO, Russia in Black Sea
^{— Martin Fornusek · The Kyiv Independent · Aug 18, 2023}

We cannot rule out such an option. We are working to prevent it. Russia constantly provokes NATO. — Todor Tagarev

... Sea, ground (e.g. Wagner), air, public statements.

:/

putin's sputnik rocket sputtered out and crashed into the moon: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66562629

Everything's coming up Milhouse.

I am assuming that the treaty actually ends the war (i.e. Russia cannot continue it in a near future, at least not until Ukraine is in NATO). — Jabberwock

Or if Ukraine is in NATO, that would be a guarantee that Russia doesn't the war after rebuilding it's offensive capacity.

As you write, for Russia it is a prized jewel of the empire, losing Sevastopol would be a hard blow; for Ukraine not so much. — Jabberwock

As you write, the whole war hasn't been much of a blow for Russia, but for Ukraine it surely has. A few drone strikes basically on military installations and the sanctions aren't anywhere close to what Ukraine is going through.

But if you have Zaporozhia, it is quite easy to cut off supplies from Crimea - just take down the Kerch Bridge. That is what the current offensive is about. — Jabberwock

To have Crimea under siege isn't similar to occupying it. In this situation Russia can simply transfer all the non-crucial people out of Crimea and still hold on to it. Remember the siege of Leningrad.

I mean, the CIA probably has given at least some sort of minor support to most of these movements but that hardly means it's decisive or even moved the needle. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Actually, it has been the Department of State, not the CIA, which at the present has been most successful. And of course there really are NGOs, or simply rich people like Soros. Of course Putin just puts them all into the same basket as there is only one basket in Russia: his basket. As in an earlier discussion about the subject, one PF member reminded that actually the US supported the opposition (to further democracy) in France when there was a social democratic administration there. France asked formally about the issue (what the hell?) and the humiliated US had to acknowledge that someone in the government apparatus had done such a thing.

But here's the issue: the best success of this kind of aiding the opposition happened in Serbia (to ouster Milosevic) and was done by the State Department. With little money and effort Milosevic was ousted and his regime crumbled. The CIA really wasn't involved and neither the military. And at that time, the US was quite open about it. Yet is Serbia in NATO? No, Serbia is a close friend to Russia. It isn't at all close to the US. And we know the reason: if NATO bombs the country, the people surely won't be happy about it.

Yet this is what the anti-US crowd seem to forget: countries are independent actors, and so are the politicians and groups of these countries. Some opposition movement or general can accept US support, but that doesn't make him a puppet of the US.

The puppets we have seen are like the former President of Afghanistan, who since high-school had lived in the US and made an stellar career in Washington and in international organizations. Anywhere else than in Afghanistan, that is. Hence it's no wonder that this guy, after been told to leave by the Taleban, abandoned his country and government with likely hundreds of millions of dollars and didn't put up a defence like Zelensky. But for some an Ukrainian administration that has nothing to do with the 2014 revolution are CIA backed nazis.

Not the Zelensky approach:

Poland’s leader says Russia’s moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, shifting regional security
^{— AP · Aug 22, 2023}

Russia said it would maintain control over those it sends to Belarus.

More or less Russian forward bases in Belarus. As someone has noted, the Kremlin is confident that Lukashenko will maintain power/grip for the foreseeable future. (*psst* now is a cool time for Belarus to swiftly oust Lukashenko :wink:)

Would the Kremlin be capable of handling a free Belarus while warring on Ukraine?

If the Belarusians were determined, I have some doubts they could maintain "two fronts", but they'd surely try/intervene and their confidence suggests they're deeply embedded in Belarusian power structures already.

‘Silence is killing me:’ A firefighter on Ukraine’s frontlines yearns to be back at work
^{— Kostyantin Gak, Nick Paton Walsh, Brice Laine · CNN · Aug 22, 2023}

I agree there are normal adequate people anywhere, on each side. But I will hate them until the end of my life. — Dima

More of that hate :/

Neverending Russian feints:
https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash

A feint as opposed to getting killed?

What a surprise

What's the feint?

Mutiny feint? Russian aircraft shot down feint? The mutineer then killed feint? :roll:

Destroy this, destroy that:

This night alone, the export capacity of the port of Izmail was reduced by 15%. Russia is systematically hitting grain silos and warehouses to stop agricultural exports. In total, 270,000 tonnes of grain have been destroyed in a month of attacks on ports. — Oleksandr Kubrakov · Reuters · Aug 23, 2023

Four educational workers were killed and four other people were hurt in a Russian attack on a school in the city of Romny in northeastern Ukraine on Wednesday, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.
“The school building was destroyed, and this is just before the school year, which unfortunately will never start for some,” Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Telegram. — Reuters via Al Arabiya · Aug 23, 2023

Yet, the same old self-victimizing crud:

Russia wants to end war unleashed by West in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin at BRICS
^{— Sahil Sinha · India Today · Aug 23, 2023}

↑ Script got old some time ago. Give it up already.

Opinion: Russia’s neighbors have a message for Putin
^{— Frida Ghitis · CNN · Aug 23, 2023}

Latvia’s bravado is made possible by the safety of belonging to NATO. [...] As in Estonia, Russia’s 21^st century assault on Ukraine brought echoes of Russia’s 20^th century subjugation of Latvia. [...] When I asked her [Galina Domenikovska (53)] about former President Donald Trump, she winced, and told me she is afraid he will come back to office.

Some share Domenikovska's concern. :)

, these two sentences have a kind of...similarity to them... :)

• Prigozhin died in plane crash
• Putin had Prigozhin killed

Mutiny feint? Russian aircraft shot down feint? The mutineer then killed feint? :roll: — ssu

Not sure if they wanted us to believe he is dead but he isn't, or that he's only presumed dead but he is, or that he was supposed to be in Russia but in reality he is still in Africa or in Belarus, or neither, because he is in Ukraine. Dead or alive.
This reminds of a famous line from Shakespeare's Hamlet: "There are more feints in Russia, dude, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

There are many possibilities and schemes to consider.

But as that Austrian psychologist once said: "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

*hah* I have a feeling this will p¡ss off the Kremlin, and I haven't seen the trailer. :D
"CIA Propaganda!" "Hollywood Lies!"
Then the crew might be sanctioned, it'll be banned anywhere within Putin's reach (except he'll watch it), and he'll tell the FSB to look for someone to create a "counter-movie".

Sean Penn's Ukraine documentary 'Superpower' premieres at Berlin International Film Festival
^{— Mark Armstrong, AP · Euronews · Feb 18, 2023}
Sean Penn's 'Immersive' Ukraine War Documentary Previewed in New Trailer
^{— Kimberlee Speakman · People · Aug 23, 2023}
Superpower (2023)
^{— IMDb}

If Prigozhin is indeed dead, then the cause of death is quite obvious: he thought he made a deal with Putin.