I think that will help Trump. — frank

So, do you think if Trump is convicted in the January 6th Trial, where he's charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, obstruction of an official proceeding etc, and sentenced to prison (pending appeal), that he will nevertheless remain a viable candidate? (The trial is scheduled for 4th March this year.)

So, do you think if Trump is convicted in the January 6th Trial, where he's charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, obstruction of an official proceeding etc, and sentenced to prison (pending appeal), that he will nevertheless remain a viable candidate? (The trial is scheduled for 4th March this year.) — Wayfarer

The New York Times says yes. Being convicted doesn't automatically disqualify him. If the majority of states wanted to disqualify him they could, but they won't. That means he'll probably be the Republican candidate, whether he's convicted or not.

Leaving aside the fact that the Constitution doesn't disqualify candidates on the basis of them being convicted of a felony (a major oversight in my view), do you think he'd be a viable candidate? Do you think the electorate and the Party would be willing to put that aside and vote for him anyway?

Do you think that if he is convicted of those crimes there's a possibility that the Supreme Court will uphold the Colorado Supreme Court judgement of 'disqualification because of insurrection'?

Leaving aside the fact that the Constitution doesn't disqualify candidates on the basis of them being convicted of a felony (a major oversight in my view), do you think he'd be a viable candidate? Do you think the electorate and the Party would be willing to put that aside and vote for him anyway? — Wayfarer

I really don't know. He won't take the popular vote, but as for the electoral college, it comes down to what the swing states do. Biden is the incumbent, and the economy is doing ok. Both of those give him an advantage. The voters turned against Trump in 2020. It's possible that they'll do that again. It will be close, though.

It will be close, though. — frank

I’m just praying you come out of it still a democracy! Sorry, but I’m just saying what many other people around the world are thinking about, some rubbing their hands together and waiting with smug looks on their faces, thinking that it’s only a matter of time, and others, like me, praying you lot pull together because we could really do with you putting your differences aside and showing a united front right now! Okay, rant over. (I’m still quietly praying though.)

praying you lot pull together because we could really do with you putting your differences aside and showing a united front right now! — Beverley

Could you explain why?

Could you explain why? — frank

Because we would really like you to stay our democratic ally.

Because we would really like you to stay our democratic ally. — Beverley

I see. :up:

Assuming the Romney/Manchin ticket does not materialize. If it does, all bets are off.

I would vote for them. — jgill

If only ranked choice voting were possible! That would make such a ticket truly viable - no one would fear wasting their vote on a candidate with virtually no chance of winning.

So I guess Biden / Dems rigged the Iowa Caucus because Criminal Defendent/Sexual Predator/Fraudster-1 only got 51% of the vote. :mask:

if 51% went to Trump, that means 49% of Republican voters picked someone else.

It's meaningless because the caucus had the lowest turn out since 2000 due in part to brutally frigid weather and yet about two-thirds of the voters are right-wing Evangelical (i.e. faux) Christians. Next week in very Independent / libertarian, much better educated New Hampshire, which is an open primary in which non-Republicans can also vote in the GOP primary, Loser-1's margin will be very slim (or he'll lose outright, which is quite possible). He'll kill Haley in her home state of very evangelical, less educated South Carolina after that though.

Please stop talking about "brutally frigid weather". Spells of below-zero F temperatures (and lower wind-chill) are not abnormal in this part of the world. Indeed, it's refreshingly normal after months of abnormally warm to brutally hot weather. Trump's Iowa win was not a cold day in hell -- it was entirely expected. The cold day in hell would be his second inauguration. Hopefully he will be locked up in solitary by that time.

:ok:

The last three GOP primary candidates for president who have won the Iowa Caucus before Loser-1's victory yesterday:

Mike Huckabee - 2008
Rick Santorium - 2012
Ted Cruz - 2016

None of them went on to become the GOP nominee for president. :up:

Next week in very Independent New Hampshire, which is an open primary in which non-Republicans can also vote in the GOP primary — 180 Proof

That’s my plan.

None of them were previously President either though - the entire situation is novel.

None of them were previously President either though — AmadeusD

And none had to run for president just to stay out of prison because they had been indicted with 91 felonies, or had been found civilly liable of sexual assault (rape in most other jurisdictions) or had been sued by their home states and found civilly liable for massive tax, bank & insurance fraud either. :mask:

Yup - the entire situation is novel. Exactly as i said.

Unfortunately, even if Trump loses, America politics are going to remain incredibly broken. The US cannot even follow through on its commitments to Ukraine/Europe despite the fact that the overwhelming number of lawmakers from both parties support more aid for Ukraine.

We've reached a new low, where even the few areas of agreement between the parties end up getting wed to hit button domestic issues. Now aid to Ukraine has been made contingent on an immigration deal during an election year (one packed with administrative poison pills as well), making it 50/50 at best if anything gets passed before November. Unfortunately, this is going to have very real consequences on the battlefield, especially as air defense munitions run low.

The adults in the room are going to need to recognize that they have to be willing to pass legislation without their party's most radical members or America's already battered credibility as a partner (or even an adversary) on the world stage is completely ruined.

At this rate, it's only a matter of time until the country defaults on its debt, sparking a huge crisis. If anything, the GOP losing big over the next 10 years or so will probably only make this more likely, as they lose any share in wanting to see success.

The only consolation is that, given how polarized things are, it seems fair to assume that very few voters are going to switch parties for the Presidential ticket. Demographics being what they are, this probably means Trump loses by 9-11 million votes this time instead of just 7.5 million, although this hardly precludes him taking office again. That's probably the worst case scenario, especially if there are some Florida in 2000 style shenanigans surrounding his victory.

At this rate, it's only a matter of time until the country defaults on its debt, sparking a huge crisis. — Count Timothy von Icarus

I'm not so sure. No Democrat wants to see a debt default. I would guess most independents don't, either. Same with moderate Republicans. For the foreseeable future, there's going to be enough Democrats and moderate Republicans to avoid a default.

Unfortunately, even if Trump loses, America politics are going to remain incredibly broken. — Count Timothy von Icarus

I don't want to believe that. I mean, it is easy to believe, but at the same time, this forthcoming election may well be a circuit-breaker. I'm convinced that Trump will loose, even if he is the nominee, which I think is highly dubious. The 'Red Wave' never materialised at the half-terms. The Republicans now have a majority of only three after Santos' expulsion, it's conceivable that the Democrats might win the House, Senate and White House. And the House Republicans are basically split between moderates and the MAGA fringe, who are detested by a lot of people on both sides.

Despair and cynicism are part of the MAGA narrative - 'everything is broken, only we can fix it'. If I wanted to go and do the research on Biden's legislative and economic wins, I'm sure I could find it, although I don't want to spend the time. And yes, they're doing a very poor job of communicating those wins, but then Trump continues to suck all the oxygen from the room.

Agree the Ukrainian stalemate is disgraceful, and I'm sure there are Republicans who agree with that, but they're over a barrel held by halfwits like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan. The rot really set in with Gingrich and the Tea Party fundamentalists, and they are carrying it forward. But I refuse to give up hope.

The good news is that I imagine most voters don't like Trump and believe he's a danger to democracy. The bad news is that I don't know how much that will drive them out to vote in November. The Democrats aren't really doing a great job of convincing them, particularly since they're running a candidate who's arguably as unpopular.

I know, I know. But I like to think that Biden is unpopular in a different way.

He's seen the same on the othe rside. Dishonest, manipulative, fraudulent, hell-bent on harming America and f**king with elections etc...

But it's objectively untrue. You know the MAGA have been trying to pin crimes on him - just one! - for the last three years, they have found absolutely nothing. He's been a dedicated public servant all his career. You need to be more discriminating, there is not a moral equivalence at work, it is not 'both sides are to blame'.

Absolutely not, no, while I also understand what you're getting at - Facts don't care about feelings, haha. But sources matter - and each decides their source is reliable, despite pretending tha t there's an absolute answer - it's all spin. It's all paraphrasing, interpolating and media horsecrap from top to bottom - eg, its extremely shaky ground to attribute inflation changes to Biden during this term. From 2020 onward, so many machinations of hte world would outstrip the ability of governmetn action to affect things like employment and inflation. You may disagree, but having watched from afar this seems inarguable. It's happened everywhere. But i'm sure there are plenty of articles claiming its Biden's doing (which is patent, inarguable nonsense).

Additionally, Biden has been found to have fabricated his educational history in public, among other things. There is absolutely no basis to be pretending Biden is a clean-handsman. He made plenty of utterly absurd votes throughout his career, including opposing desegregation efforts that were working.

https://www.mic.com/impact/the-moments-from-joe-bidens-political-career-that-have-aged-the-worst-22914332

https://macleans.ca/politics/washington/taking-stock-of-those-47-years-of-joe-biden-that-trump-keeps-mentioning/

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-10-worst-things-president-biden-did-in-2023/

I may have to duck out, because you are clearly committed to a certain view, and while i respect that, I don't, overall, respect approaching politics in the way you are. It seems to be counterproductive, and at times outright ridiculous (not you; the approach). My take; that's all. I can conceive of choosing to lionise a politician. If, for whatever reason, you are convinced Biden is not, as a career politician, an absolute crank, I don't know what to say.

Ftr, i think both are precluded from being reasonable candidates. They are both, for different reasons, completely inadequate to be in charge of anything reasonably important.

I have successfully predicted the outcome of every US presidential race since Van Buren other than my one embarrassing misstep in the James K. Polk match up against Henry Clay, so consider those credentials as you will, but I see a Trump victory. No one is getting out of bed to vote for Joe, not even Joe.

Don't kill the messenger. I too wish things were different.

:lol:

I have successfully predicted the outcome of every US presidential race since [ ... ] I see a Trump victory. No one is getting out of bed to vote for Joe, not even Joe. — Hanover

Yeah well, I just can't help but seeing things a little differently (or clearly), making me a broken record predicting the coming Biden blowout ...

(June 2023)
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/819018

(June 2023)
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/819276

(Nov 2023)
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/851623

(Dec 2023)
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/865050

Unfortunately, even if Trump loses, America politics are going to remain incredibly broken. — Count Timothy von Icarus

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/820342 (i.e. the way the investor class prefers things)

At this rate, it's only a matter of time until the country defaults on its debt, sparking a huge crisis. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Not in our lifetime, Count. IMO, the sovereign wealth of the G-20 nations (including the BRICS) and their IMF, World Bank & GATT-affiliated central banks – the investor class (bond market-makers) – won't "allow" a petrodollar-denominated US default. Probably not in our grandchildren's lifetimes either. Bretton Woods still has all of the world's major economic powers by the short-n-curlies. :eyes: :mask:

No one is getting out of bed to vote for Joe, not even Joe. — Hanover

Octogenarian Politicking at it's finest LOL