Putin vs Assad

Linkey

These two dictators are very similar:

1) Both came to power rather by accident;

2) Both showed themselves as relatively secular, not fanatical, maybe even pro-Western;

3) Both started their rule quite liberally;

4) In 2021, according to official data, Assad "got" 95% of votes in the first tour of the presidential election. Putin "got" 87% in the first tour in 2024.

The next point is that any dictator benefits from the situation when the population have a little choice - either this dictator or a civil war. Please tell me if anyone knows how Assad did it in Syria. Currently I understand how Putin does this in Russia:

1) Now Chechnya is in fact an independent state, with a monarchical form of government, currently as an ally for the Russian Federation. But this "union" has to be paid for. Kadyrov has always shown himself to be anti-liberal; and if the next president starts democratic reforms )a thaw_, then Kadyrov will say that he and the Russian Federation are not on the same path, and this president will have to start a third Chechen war;

2) Until recently, another such figure was Evgeniy Prigozhin. He has always positioned himself as an extreme anti-liberal, and while he demanded to ban YouTube and turn Russia into the DPRK, Putin favored him and allowed him to grow;

3) One more such figure now is Viktor Zolotov, a chief of RosGuardia. As far as I understand it, he has his own army with armored vehicles and artillery.

Paul

Putin made his country far less secular than it was before him, so they're opposites in that respect. And in their whole personalities and histories they're really opposites. One was a doctor who wanted nothing to do with power until it was thrust on him, one was a spook who was always working to secure power even if it was for others. One consummate professional, one more of a party boy. One wants to restore a former glory, the other just wanted to maintain the system he was born into and depended on.

The only real commonality is that both briefly hoped to befriend the west as a way to secure their status, but found that unworkable and so had to turn in other directions. But it's not a matter of liberalism vs. anti-liberalism, since only Putin turned to conservative forces to secure himself (unless you count Assad turning to Iran, but Iran wasn't asking him be more conservative).

And I disagree with those figures being the most important conservative forces for Putin. The Orthodox church is his most important conservative ally and the fundamental reason for Putin's conservative turn. It's leverage over the masses, and actual popularity. Kadyrov couldn't care less if the rest of Russia goes liberal if they let him do what he wants in his territory.

jgill

1) Both came to power rather by accident; — Linkey

Yeltsin groomed Putin for his political ascension. Then resigned. No accident.

Linkey

Yeltsin groomed Putin for his political ascension. Then resigned. No accident. — jgill

If I am not mistaken, firtly Eltsin planed to support another man, Stepashin, but then choosed Putin because Stepashin did something wrong.

ssu

1) Now Chechnya is in fact an independent state — Linkey

I would really not use the term independent here. Chechnya vassal state run by one man with dictatorial powers, I would say. Here Russia followed the well known way to win an insurgency: put former insurgents as leaders of the country (like UK did with the Boers of South Africa).

If I am not mistaken, firtly Eltsin planed to support another man, Stepashin, but then choosed Putin because Stepashin did something wrong. — Linkey

Budyonnovsk hospital hostage crisis happened, when Chechen fighters ordered to destroy a helicopter base didn't make it there and preferred to take a hospital instead. Stepashin btw had been also a director of the FSB, just like Putin. Both are siloviki.

But yes, there are a lot of similarities with the Putin and Assad governments. Putin's regime can collapse too. Just remember where his allies where when Wagner staged their run for Moscow. Nowhere to be seen, just waiting to see who is on top when the dust settles.

Putin vs Assad

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