Probably, but I don't think it matters. Taiwan is not important enough to US national interests to risk going to war there. I guess the best argument in favor of our continued support is that it will undermine the US's credibility to dump Taiwan.

Taiwan is not important enough to US national interests to risk going to war there. — T Clark

Taiwan produces around 90% of the world's most advanced ICs. It is very much in the iinterest of the US and other countries that such manufacturing capabilities are not taken over by China.

The real question is if China would try to occupy militarily Taiwan, which other countries would assist the US, if the US opted to intervene. Would Japan commit? Would South Korea commit? Apart from those two, the other countries have not much to give in sea warfare. What would Australia do?

Japanese Navy is back with combat aircraft...

Is China really willing to start a war with Taiwan in order to make it part of China? — dclements

Yes, it is. Chinese culture is a Warrior culture to the core. We cannot understand it because, in that sense, we are barbarians compared to them. The East has been civilized for far longer than the West, and they have had many more wars.

Yes, of course. Taiwan is, after all, "a part of China", but the political class in Taipei are just living in denial. Like Cuba (or Canada :sweat:) in relation to America. I think the more germaine question is: Will the US abandon Ukraine (& Eastern Europe) to Russian aggression and thereby give the PRC a green light to invade Taiwan without risking a catastrophic (world) war? :monkey:

Taiwan produces around 90% of the world's most advanced ICs. It is very much in the iinterest of the US and other countries that such manufacturing capabilities are not taken over by China. — wonderer1

Hey, no fair knowing more than I do. But still, I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to go to war with China. Will China having control of Taiwanese chip manufacturers be more disruptive than a war with the US's active participation? I don't think they have any more interest in the world economy falling apart than we do.

I've changed my mind - I'm pretty sure it's not a good enough reason.

I think the more germaine question is: Will the US abandon Ukraine (& Eastern Europe) to Russian aggression and thereby give the PRC a green light to invade Taiwan without starting a wider (or world) war? :brow: — 180 Proof

I think the most germane question is "What could possibly go wrong?" The US doesn't seem to have a good record of figuring that out in recent decades. Maybe no one has.

I think the most germane question is "What could possibly go wrong?" The US doesn't seem to have a good record of figuring that out in recent decades. Maybe no one has. — T Clark

No one has. Indeed. Think of that, this way: everyone involved in that problem is operating with partial information. No actor there has complete information of the overall situation. Therefore, they make guesses, to the best of their ability. And, like any guess, it could turn out to be wrong. And in fact it has, many times.

Exactly!

And, like any guess, it could turn out to be wrong. And in fact it has, many times. — Arcane Sandwich

I find I am almost always wrong when I try to predict what will happen next in politics or foreign affairs. The lesson I take from that is not to do much, which may be a brilliant strategy or a highway to hell.

:up:

I find I am almost always wrong when I try to predict what will happen next in politics or foreign affairs. — T Clark

I believe that is because we, the public, are also trying to think through this problem under complicated conditions, because we don't have all of the information of the overall situation either. We make educated guesses, but sometimes we get it wrong. It's understandable, given the nature of incomplete information relative to a situation that involves us.

China is probably willing to use military force (aka war) to force Taiwan into union with the PRC.

True, Taiwan produces a large share of advanced chips. (The Netherland produces a large share of the advanced machines which make the advanced chips.). Presumably, the PRC would find the equipment blown to bits and of no use to them.

We could preemptively move Taiwan's industry to Wisconsin -- machines and necessary personnel.

Outside of chips and dips, how much does anyone in the US care about Taiwan? Know anyone from Taiwan?

How committed to Taiwan's defense is the US? Japan? Korea?

I'd prefer to see Taiwan continue on as an independent country.

It's understandable, given the nature of incomplete information relative to a situation that involves us. — Arcane Sandwich

It's not primarily incomplete information. The best informed of us don't know what's going to happen and to get to the position of being a decision maker in these situations you have to have bought into your country's nationalistic ideology.

you have to have bought into your country's nationalistic ideology. — T Clark

Or on the payroll of a multi-national corporation.

If China Invades Taiwan, It Would Cost World Economy $10 Trillion

A China-Taiwan War Would Start an Economic Crisis.

China will in all likelihood not resort to military means to incorporate Taiwan. It probably feels there is no immediate need to force the issue, and over time political options will become available to reach unification without bloodshed.

However, if Taiwan were to declare its independence a Chinese intervention is all but a guarantee.

I wonder opinions and thought people on this forum have in regards whether or not China is willing to invade Taiwan or not in order to make it part of China. — dclements

They certainly want Taiwan, but they might end up destroying all they've accomplished in the last 50 years. Trying to predict what China will do is difficult. I think the chances of a war in the next five years are about "50 50," but that's just a guess. I'm sure China would like to have TSMC, but that factory will probably be blown up if they invade. That said it's probably a matter of pride for them to get Taiwan. China could do a blockade because Taiwan imports just about everything. However, if they blockade Taiwan, the U.S. and its allies would have time to bring more force to bear.

If I was China, I would attack before the U.S. had time to build up long-range missile inventories. The U.S. is trying to build inventories as we speak. The carriers are going to have to stay about 1000 miles away or risk getting sunk. China could be stopped but the price would be high in lives and ships. Is it worth it? If the U.S. does nothing, then Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, etc., are going to start wondering if the U.S. will protect them if China wants to expand its influence. I hope it doesn't happen, but who knows?