There is no deep state. — frank

Of course there is. The US is corrupt down to the bone. The "deep state" is, for example, whoever is paying off your politicians to start and market wars that nobody asked for.

If lobbies have the power to push the United States to war with entire regions of the world (eg. the US response to 9/11), then how does that not fit the idea of an elite class that has gigantic political influence that circumvents and/or manipulates the democratic process?

It's been noted (by the reddit crowd) that tariffs can't bring in revenue and simultaneously increase incentives to manufacture in the US. — frank

Well, if tariffs give incentives to domestic manufacture, then Americans wouldn't buy imported good, so how would then tariffs bring tax revenue? And if the tariff revenues are so large that they can for example help in balancing the budget, I don't think that then Americans will have any domestic alternative for the imported goods. Hawaii cannot produce your coffee, for example.

So I think that this isn't just a reddit crowd, this is just common sense.

Besides, if everything that is imported is for Americans will be at least 10% higher, how would that help the economy, where the American consumer already has doubts about the future?

Anyway, I think that Trump's tariff stupidity and clear disregard at all trade agreements simply creates distrust towards the US. This might start with tariffs, but end in a debt crisis and a dollar crisis.

Hawaii cannot produce your coffee, for example. — ssu

Yea. Americans will just pay more for coffee. We're going to have that coffee though. We can't function without it.

So I think that this isn't just a reddit crowd, this is just common sense. — ssu

Yes, but they're like economics professors, so a tad more reliable than average.

Besides, if everything that is imported is for Americans will be at least 10% higher, how would that help the economy, where the American consumer already has doubts about the future? — ssu

The point wasn't to help the economy. Do you remember what Trump actually said the point of the tariffs was?

4. If FDI does decline it will result in lower growth, weaker dollar, austerity or inflation and loss of global influence. It's not strategic at all. — Benkei

It does seem to be an element of the market that protectionist policies keep colliding with. None of the "balance of trade" talk performed so far by the Administration incorporates that as a factor.

US lifts sanctions against key Orbán ally accused of corruption (Apr 16, 2025)

Meanwhile Orbán is enacting... crackdown on non-government/foreign-funded organizations and media, so alleged threat to sovereignty can be (ab)used to silence critics; loss of Hungarian citizenship if they have other citizenship as well and allegedly undermine sovereignty; state of emergency can be declared indefinitely from the current maximum of 180 days; additional moves against trans-genders and homosexuals.

Room for corruption up, democracy and civil liberties down, political imposition against whatever cultural trend gets them fired up today, ...

Retardation pandemic?

What do you mean "down"?

Well in a nutshell, all the measures of success in an economy going in the wrong direction.
I was reading about stagflation, it’s sort of like having long Covid.

From Wiki;

Stagflation presents a policy dilemma, as measures to curb inflation—such as tightening monetary policy—can exacerbate unemployment, while policies aimed at reducing unemployment may fuel inflation. In economic theory, there are two main explanations for stagflation: supply shocks, such as a sharp increase in oil prices, and misguided government policies that hinder industrial output while expanding the money supply too rapidly. The stagflation of the 1970s led to a reevaluation of Keynesian economic policies and contributed to the rise of alternative economic theories, including monetarism and supply-side economics.

In the Keynesian model, higher prices prompt increases in the supply of goods and services. However, during a supply shock (i.e., scarcity, "bottleneck" in resources, etc.), supplies do not respond as they normally would to these price pressures. So, inflation jumps and output drops, producing stagflation.

Now Trump has introduced a supply shock. A sudden end of imports from China and a little from all the other countries facing tariffs. Also he is introducing a labour shortage by sending Latinos back. Both of these are inflationary because demand is not being met.

He intends to increase U.S. production of those products in short supply, which will be expensive, produce more expensive goods and produce another labour shortage. Again both inflationary.

And tariffs are naturally inflationary, as the tariff itself is an increase in cost

So I think I can confidently predict that there will be strong inflationary pressures.

To counter this Trump will need to dampen growth in the areas he wants growth to increase in. Or increase the workforce to reduce wage increase pressures. Both of which work in opposition to what he wants to do. Because, to dampen growth will cause stagnation in the economy and he is ideologically opposed to importing cheap labour.

So he’s going to fail to increase domestic production of the restricted goods (there will be some exceptions), he’s going to cause shortages of lots of consumables, raw materials and minerals. Causing inflation which will be very difficult to stop, while not improving the income of U.S. workers, not growing the economy, which will stagnate and making everyone feel a lot poorer.

A classic case of stagflation, which will be very difficult to break out of.

Not to mention people all around the world boycotting U.S. goods and other countries imposing counter tariffs on U.S. exports.

I can’t see any good news in there apart from those few exceptions where there will be some growth in U.S. production.

You can't have stagflation and a labor shortage at the same time. What could happen is an inflationary recession, where the US economy contracts due to poor consumer confidence and supply chain issues. That would be terrible, especially for the generation whose start in life was impacted by the pandemic. All we'll need is a serious war after that, and we will have another "silent generation" (a generation that could never catch a break).

Trump prides himself on his ability to free hostages held in foreign prisons, yet he presents himself as helpless when it comes to bringing back Abrego Garcia — even though we are paying El Salvador to imprison deportees. — Nicholas Kristof, NY Times

Arturo Suárez Trejo, 33, a musician, was snatched off the street in Raleigh, North Carolina, by ICE, and became one of the 238 Venezuelans deported to a hellhole prison in El Salvador under the Alien Enemies Act, previously only ever used to imprison citizens of countries with which the US was at war, on the pretext of being a criminal gang member. There is no record either in the US or any other country of any crimes committed by Suárez, but regardless, Kristi Noem, Trump's Homeland Security Secretary, said he and the others swept up in the arrest should “should stay there for the rest of their lives". They're now out of American jurisdiction and subject to the mercies (or should we say whims) of Trump's fellow dictator, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, who was cordially hosted by Trump in the Oval Office earlier this week.

This arrest and deportation is the one that has is subject to an injunction heard by one Judge Boasberg of the Washington Federal Court, and the one that looks likely to provide the constitutional crisis that has long been forecast, when the Trump administration begins to openly defy the judiciary.

A NY Times investigation into the 238 detainees found that 32 had committed crimes of various kinds, two dozen more lower-level misdemeanours - but scant evidence of the actual gang membership which provided the pretext for their arrest and deportation, with no right of appeal or any process for them to appeal their fate. (One was said to have been arrested because of a tattoo which looked like those attributed to the gang in question.)

So let's all spare a thought for Arturo Suárez Trejo, who's quest for the American dream has delivered he and his compatriots into a dystopian nightmare.

That’s worse than stagflation, it’s starting to sound like a South American economy.

it’s starting to sound like a South American economy. — Punshhh

What's wrong with South American economies?

Yea. Americans will just pay more for coffee. We're going to have that coffee though. We can't function without it. — frank

Take a picture what the coffees cost now in your local coffee shop and compare it to the prices same time in 2026. Take also a measurement of the coffee cup that is medium or large. Now, do you think the price and the cup size will stay the same until April 2026?

The point wasn't to help the economy. Do you remember what Trump actually said the point of the tariffs was? — frank

I thought the reason was to have domestic manufacturing come back to the US and the US "not to be ripped off by foreigners". (Whatever that second thing means)

You can't have stagflation and a labor shortage at the same time. — frank

Notice that every recession starts from high point of last economic boom years. Large scale unemployment is the issue that comes later. Just look where unemployment was in 1929 and 1930. It was well under 5%, and times with full employment, which means a huge labour shortage:


Took years back then to rise to 25% unemployment.

Let's remember that changes in the economic cycle take time. So we cannot be certain what will happen. Only many months into a recession we will understand how bad it will be.

Take a picture what the coffees cost now in your local coffee shop and compare it to the prices same time in 2026. Take also a measurement of the coffee cup that is medium or large. Now, do you think the price and the cup size will stay the same until April 2026? — ssu

It will cost 10% more.

The point wasn't to help the economy. Do you remember what Trump actually said the point of the tariffs was?
— frank
I thought the reason was to have domestic manufacturing come back to the US and the US "not to be ripped off by foreigners". (Whatever that second thing means) — ssu

So helping the economy wasn't the point.

Let's remember that changes in the economic cycle take time. So we cannot be certain what will happen. Only many months into a recession we will understand how bad it will be. — ssu

Yes. You still can't have stagflation with a labor shortage. That doesn't make any sense.

It will cost 10% more. — frank

Want to bet on that? Perhaps one virtual coffee? Especially something like coffee can be tricky. :chin:

So helping the economy wasn't the point. — frank

Yes. When one doesn't understand the basic reasons why the US has had a long standing trade deficit and when one thinks that "Trade is bad", then your actions likely won't help the economy. Especially when you have around you only sycophants and nobody to limit your harmful ideas.

You still can't have stagflation with a labor shortage. That doesn't make any sense. — frank

In general, of course some special fields can still have a labor shortage, but that is because of a mismatch between the existing labor force and what labor is needed.

Want to bet on that? Perhaps one virtual coffee? Especially something like coffee can be tricky — ssu

I think your assessments are based more on sentiment than on facts.

What's wrong with South American economies?

They were historically volatile. Countries like Argentina and Venezuela are what I was thinking of.

The thing about stagflation, is it is different in different circumstances. Also an inflationary recession is like stagflation, only with a contracting economy. It might contract and then stagnate.

I’m not convinced that a labour shortage can’t happen while an economy is stagnating. In the circumstances I’m referring to the shortage (a limited shortage in certain areas) is happening alongside a so called stimulation of the economy (the purpose of introducing tariffs). So the stimulation will fail due to a labour shortage. Hence a stagnating situation.

The thing about stagflation, is it is different in different circumstances — Punshhh

By definition, unemployment is high during stagflation. It's very rare. As I'm sure you read, it baffled economists when it happened in the 1970s. They ended up re-engineering parts of the standard economic view to accommodate it.

Also an inflationary recession is like stagflation, — Punshhh

Correct, but there wouldn't be a labor shortage during a recession, which by definition includes high unemployment.

I’m not convinced that a labour shortage can’t happen while an economy is stagnating. In the circumstances I’m referring to the shortage (a limited shortage in certain areas) is happening alongside a so called stimulation of the economy (the purpose of introducing tariffs). So the stimulation will fail due to a labour shortage. Hence a stagnating situation. — Punshhh

Ok. I'm not familiar with any cases where a limited labor shortage has any significant impact on the economy.

Many, if not most, maga voters just weren't paying attention, and now –

"Instant karma's gonna get you ..." :victory:

I posted that in my story about Suarez (above) but the mods removed it. Too sad, this young guy just trying to make a life, swept up into that dreadful hellhole.

I think your assessments are based more on sentiment than on facts. — frank

Now there are no facts on how much one coffee will be next year.

Now there are no facts on how much one coffee will be next year. — ssu

:grin:

In an act of sweet revenge, it looks like Letitia James is getting treated the way she treated Donald Trump. Now she’s being investigated for mortgage fraud. I’m under the mind that she’s getting what she deserves.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/nyregion/trump-letitia-james-mortgage-fraud.html

Until she's charged nobody cares.

I care. The investigation is the punishment in American jurisprudence. It can bankrupt people.

care. The investigation is the punishment in American jurisprudence. It can bankrupt people. — NOS4A2

I did not know that. Why would it bankrupt somebody?

So according to NY Times it turns out that the letter of demands sent to Harvard which triggered this huge conflict was sent by mistake.(“Trump Officials Blame Mistake for Setting Off Confrontation”.) It was supposed to be an internal discussion paper. Another staggering example of Administration incompetence, as if any more were needed.

it shouldn't make a difference because it should be about responsibility and not incompetence.

It was supposed to be an internal discussion paper. — Wayfarer

That's bullshit. It was formulated as a letter, not as a topic for discussion. Unless perhaps, they use AI to write up their discussion topics.

Imagine that, thy could even use AI to discuss their discussion topics, and decide which letters to send out. No wonder Musk quit the team, he saw his worst nightmare coming true, he was being replaced by AI. Next step, the AIs would be producing offspring for him.

This user has been deleted and all their posts removed.

That's bullshit. It was formulated as a letter, not as a topic for discussion. Unless perhaps, they use AI to write up their discussion topics. — Metaphysician Undercover

Likely is bullshit.

But the stupidity of the administration should never be underestimated as this administration has severe difficulties in communication in general:

(CNN, 21st April 2025) Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared detailed plans about a military operation against the Houthis in Yemen on a second Signal group chat, this one on his personal phone and including his wife, lawyer and brother, three people familiar with the chat told CNN.

The chat was set up during Hegseth’s tumultuous confirmation hearing process as a way for his closest allies to strategize, two of the people familiar with the matter said. But Hegseth continued using the chat, which had more than a dozen people in it, to communicate after he was confirmed, the people said.

-

Similar to the first Signal chat, which was revealed publicly by The Atlantic after its editor was mistakenly included by national security adviser Mike Waltz, the military plans Hegseth shared in the second chat were about strikes against the Houthis, the people said.

Good that the wife, the brother and former colleagues on Fox got the launch times of those air strikes too. Hey, some of us just have being a reporter in our blood! We have to spread the good news.

The Hegseth issue continues to fester, as he's plainly, utterly incompetent for the role of CEO of the largest organisation in the world. But, hey, since when do facts matter for Trump? Besides, he won't give the media the satisfaction of a resignation. He'll dig in with the usual fire hydrant of mendacity.

On another topic, the vexed question of illegal deportations of immigrants also continues to fester.

“We cannot give everyone a trial, because to do so would take, without exaggeration, 200 years,” Trump added in his Truth Social post. “We would need hundreds of thousands of trials for the hundreds of thousands of Illegals we are sending out of the Country. Such a thing is not possible to do. What a ridiculous situation we are in.”

I've often mused in the past that one of the major problems with unauthorised immigration, is that when a subject arrives in, say, the United States, they are automatically granted certain rights, not on the basis of being citizens, but because they're humans. Among those rights are habeus corpus and the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. So returning them to countries which don't recognise human rights is a violation of their rights! It's a kind of osmosis.

This is a highly inconvenient truth, as far as Trump is concerned. He's right in saying that the process of giving all these unauthorised arrivals their due is highly impractical and he's saying that completely over-riding their constitutional rights is, therefore, justified. That is what is at issue. i think this will be the arena in which the impending constitutional crisis in the form of defiance of the Courts will manifest.