• Brendan Golledge
    183
    Suppose that the quality of a civilization is dependent on some average qualities of the population that supports the civilization. One of these qualities is probably IQ, although there are probably others too. For any given population, there is an average level of civilization that can be supported which occurs frequently, and fringe cases that occur infrequently.

    The average IQ (and other necessary qualities) of the human population increases slowly with time due to biological evolution. Increased technological knowledge also increases slowly with time.

    Due to slow increases either in the underlying quality of the population, or of their acquired resources (such as technology), the average quality of civilization increases with time, but always with fringe cases that are better and worse than average.

    Suppose that once an AGI is developed, it improves at a pace much more rapid than human civilization can develop, and it significantly alters (possibly destroying) human civilization after it is developed.

    Given all these assumptions, we ought to expect that the most likely outcome is that AGI will be developed only once at close to the earliest possible time it could possibly develop. This AGI will be developed by a fringe-case civilization which achieved its success by accident. This civilization doesn't understand what sustains it or how it created the AGI, because much of its success came just by accident. If this civilization hadn't created the AGI, it would probably collapse to a simpler state anyway, because most of the population does not understand the causes of its own success.

    A highly stable and successful human society is not likely to produce the AGI, because then it would presumably have been able to make the AGI many times over again, but AGI only needs to be created once in order drastically alter the nature of human societies.

    This hypothesis seems to me to fit with the observed reality. We live in the most advanced society that has ever existed, we seem possibly to be on the cusp of creating AGI (and even the people doing it don't fully understand how it works), while at the same time, society is decaying because most people don't understand how it got here and don't understand what it takes to maintain it. As a group, we are unworthy of the civilization we have inherited, which is why the younger generations today have less than their grandparents.

    Even without the existence of AI, if one accepts that there's probably an average way for humans to live, then if one finds oneself in unusually good circumstances, then one ought to expect a reversion to the mean.
bold
italic
underline
strike
code
quote
ulist
image
url
mention
reveal
youtube
tweet
Add a Comment

Welcome to The Philosophy Forum!

Get involved in philosophical discussions about knowledge, truth, language, consciousness, science, politics, religion, logic and mathematics, art, history, and lots more. No ads, no clutter, and very little agreement — just fascinating conversations.

×
We use cookies and similar methods to recognize visitors and remember their preferences.