none of those directly translate to probabilities. Raw quantities are not probabilities.

I mean hell, your probabilities don't even make basic sense. They add up to more than 100%. There's a more than 100% probability that this person's eyes are blue, brown or green by your given probabilities. How is that possible?

Then I don't know how to answer your puzzle.

have you seen the canonical answer?

On this island there are 100 blue-eyed people, 100 brown-eyed people, and the Guru (she happens to have green eyes). So any given blue-eyed person can see 100 people with brown eyes and 99 people with blue eyes (and one with green), but that does not tell him his own eye color; as far as he knows the totals could be 101 brown and 99 blue. Or 100 brown, 99 blue, and he could have red eyes. — flannel jesus

You said that there are 100 blue eyed and 100 brown eyed yet the green eyed sees 101 brown and 99 blue? Are there 200 or 201 people?

All the shaman has to say is "if you have counted 100 people that have blue eyes leave, you have brown eyes".
"If you have counted 99 people you have blue eyes, stay for the tonight after party."

How I solved it:
This is basically X=C-A where C is brown eyed and A is blue eyed, so to solve it we require just C and A. Knowing that logisticians counted each other except themselves we get X=C-A where X= colour of your own eyes and C-A is the other people. So its two simple equations(or one?).

All the shaman has to say is — Illuminati

Nobody asked you what the shaman has to say though. I told you what the shaman says. You've solved a question that isn't being asked.

Nobody asked you what the shaman has to say though — flannel jesus

The Guru is allowed to speak once — flannel jesus

Guru=Shaman, you are being overly pendantic, yes a shaman is not a guru.

I'm not being pedantic. Read the whole original post. I don't care if you call her a shaman or guru or whatever, that's not the point of what I said. Whether you call her a shaman or a guru, if you read the whole post, you'll see that it's given what this person says. That's not the question.

Right at the end:

"I can see someone who has blue eyes."

Who leaves the island, and on what night? — flannel jesus

Aaah yes, you are right, the guru is allowed to speak only once. not once every noon, thats what I got wrong. I thought he/she speaks daily and we are supposed to figure out what to say in order to get out of the island in groups.

I googled the puzzle to understand it so now I know the answer and the puzzle is ruined for me, I cant answer.

what do you think of the answer? I think it's really weird that someone can say something everyone knows, and it still be used as if it were new information.

I dont like it mainly because I dont like un-intuitive puzzles and I find them hard. Wish I didnt know the answer to try again hopefuly to find it.

Well, one last interesting thing with this puzzle is: why is it so counter-intuitive? Why is it that most people, myself included, think the solution is in error at first blush?

I think there are two factors:

1. The level of indirection. In daily life, you might sometimes think on a level of "I know, that you know, that he knows" but a couple of levels of indirection like that is usually sufficient for most things. It feels weird to reason that "He will reason that, he will reason that, he will reason that...x99"...we aren't used to it
2. The premise of everyone knowing everyone else is perfectly logical. Pretty easy to say, but pretty alien in practice. We rarely have the privilege of knowing how others will reason.

Some would say that the key thing is that it seems like pointing out someone has blue eyes isn't adding new information of course. And that's true, but I think that flows from (1) and (2) above. Most people can figure out that the logic works in the 2 or 3 villagers scenarios, even though for those cases everyone already sees at least one person with blue eyes.
So I'd say it's more a symptom of the confusion, rather than the cause.