or at least capitalised on the short selling which led to the banking crisis — Punshhh
↪Tim3003
I am not so convinced about the numbers in parliament, the DUP's 10 votes are gone and I doubt there will be more than 5 Labour rebels. This deal is far worse for Labour as it leads to a greater divergence from the EU than May's deal did, leading to a Singapore like destination. I can't see Labour rebels wanting to be blamed for pushing that over the line. Also Tory rebels like David Gauke, or Dominic Grieve are not going to be happy.
Also there may be some spartans who think it's a betrayal in the other direction. It will be interesting to watch how the support builds, or wanes over the next couple of days. — Punshhh
I would agree with you if the they win the vote tomorrow, although I wouldn't expect such a large majority in the election. However if they lose and it's looking to be by about 10 short at the moment. Then I doubt Johnson will have so much traction during the campaign. He will still have the same problem, if he runs on the deal he's got, or a similar deal he will not drain support from the Brexit party because they think it is not leaving, Farage said as much this morning. Whereas if he runs on a no deal, he loses a sizeable chunk of support who don't want a no deal. So we are back with the infighting in the Conservative side of the argument ( I am regarding the Brexit party as an extreme wing of the Conservative party here). — Punshhh
That's not quite how I see it, I think there is a high likelihood that the Tory's will win the most seats though. But if they don't have a majority, who would they negotiate a confidence and supply arrangement, or a coalition with?There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.
↪Tim3003
There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.
That's not quite how I see it, I think there is a high likelihood that the Tory's will win the most seats though. But if they don't have a majority, who would they negotiate a confidence and supply arrangement, or a coalition with? — Punshhh
l can't see a way to avoid it, at least if there is a coalition of the opposition they will enact their plan and the deadlock will be broken by a public vote, a referendum. I put the stalemate down to the inept performance of the government, they should have reached across the isle following the referendum and formed a coalition across the house for a way forwards on such a fundamental change in the future of our country. But they put their own narrow party interest before that of the country.Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?
There is a risk, the EU might not grant the extension, or they might say there must be a democratic event, or the meaningful vote must be held first, in which case we might see more chicanery. It's an unknown — Punshhh
Possible, but I think the EU's political leaders probably have enough political acumen to realize that they'd be playing into Johnson's Hands if they did.
Already I hear that Johnson sent a photocopy of the letter unsigned, with an accompanying signed letter saying that the first letter is not his words, but those of Parliament and that any delay would be harmful to both Britain and Europe. I wonder if there are threats included. He insisted that he will continue pushing his deal through parliament and will leave by 31st.
I know that they have the measure of him, but if you have a petulant child, it is difficult to manage them without having to step over any red lines. — Punshhh
↪Tim3003
Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?
l can't see a way to avoid it, at least if there is a coalition of the opposition they will enact their plan and the deadlock will be broken by a public vote, a referendum. I put the stalemate down to the inept performance of the government, they should have reached across the isle following the referendum and formed a coalition across the house for a way forwards on such a fundamental change in the future of our country. But they put their own narrow party interest before that of the country. — Punshhh
Nice, it will really hang Johnson out to dry though and play into Corbyn's hands.Takes Johnson’s threat of ‘no deal’ as a bargaining chip, and turns it right back on the Brits
↪Tim3003
But it's look now that there is going to be a confirmatory referendum tacked on. Or failing that a confidence vote in the last week of October. An accidental no deal at the end of October is not looking likely now as Oliver Letwin is happy and doesn't think he will be bringing any other amendments, so Corbyn will be lining up for the no confidence vote now. — Punshhh
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