It seems quite possible to me that China will eclipse the USA as the dominant world hegemon in the near future but that gives me no joy. — Wayfarer

I have the same feeling. China may eventually produce more GDP than the USA since it has a larger population. China, however, suffers from problems such as corruption, no freedom of speech, etc., so it will produce less GDP per capita.

I think the US will contract into a Western Hemisphere alliance (including Greenland) and leave the rest of the world to themselves except for the occasional nuclear war.

It will eventually, but probably not in our lifetime. — frank

I'm not confident that I will be dead before things spiral out of control, and I'm an old man.

2) My claim is this should not be interpreted as backsliding but rather as an overestimation of the percentage of the world population who embraced liberalism to begin with. — Joshs

I don't know much about the over-estimation of the world's liberalism, but that is certainly the case for the United States.

It might seem like liberals had super-majorities in congress during the Roosevelt administrations, and in some other decades, but only if one mistakenly equates "Democrat" with "Liberal". Democratic majorities were possible because the illiberal solid-south Democrats had pretty much complete control over southern state politics. It became more difficult for Democrats to control congress after the illiberal Democrats switched and became illiberal Republicans. That's one thing.

States in the midwest and west coast have always held strong conservative constituencies along side liberal districts (usually urban). Minnesota illustrates this well, sending a mixed conservative and liberal representation to Congress. Minnesota was a consistently religious place, with strong "family values". It less religious now, less traditionally family oriented, but still has about the same mix of conservative and liberal. California, the home of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan et al, has had some remarkably illiberal episodes.

If you take a random sample of Americans, I would expect the majority to express a mix of values which can't be taken as resoundingly Liberal. That doesn't mean that the majority are on the edge of fascism, but far right leanings make up substantial group (the "MAGA base").

Pundits are saying the Democrats don't know what to do to win elections. I don't think that is true -- they know how as well as the Republicans. The problem with the presumably liberal Democrats is that their liberalism isn't deep or strong enough to motivate them, to the same extent that the far right Republicans are motivated. They seem to be having difficulty clearly articulating the liberal cause.

The failure to articulate and hold the liberal center allows for growing encroachment on the political center by far right wing thinking and 'left of liberal' thinking on the left side. MAGA and some of the so-called Democratic Socialists both pose problems for central liberalism, whether rounding up 10 million illegal immigrants or abolishing the police.

I'm not confident that I will be dead before things spiral out of control, and I'm an old man. — BC

Have you ever known a time when things weren't on the verge of spiralling out of control?

I agree, excluding the occasional nuclear war.

I agree, excluding the occasional nuclear war. — MoK

People absolutely have to provoke one another to see if nuclear warheads will show up. They can't just sit there and act like they have some sense.

People absolutely have to provoke one another to see if nuclear warheads will show up. They can't just sit there and act like they have some sense. — frank

Einstein said that there is no end to human stupidity! I hope he is wrong.

Realism is great, but it isn't democracy or liberalism (per se) that gets you there. If one wants to use democracy or liberalism to achieve realism, then they need a particular flavor of democracy or liberalism. The flavor of liberalism has to do with a focus on the individual and inalienable rights. The flavor of democracy has to do with a relatively autonomous demos (which is probably no longer possible in our internet age). — Leontiskos

So you don’t see realism assumed as a foundation of the social package but rather an optional flavour? Institutions such as independent courts and a free press aren’t envisaged as basic?

I would say it is more correct that it is realism that gets you to democracy and liberalism. A public concern for the real facts, the real truth, is the precondition.

Of course we can have our sophisticated debates about the epistemic reality of realism given we are socially-constructed creatures. But that too rather proves the point.

Einstein also said the Fourth World War would be fought with rocks, there being nothing else left to fight with after the Third World War.

The failure to articulate and hold the liberal center allows for growing encroachment on the political center by far right wing thinking and 'left of liberal' thinking on the left side. MAGA and some of the so-called Democratic Socialists both pose problems for central liberalism, whether rounding up 10 million illegal immigrants or abolishing the police — BC

I agree with your overall analysis. I would say that in order for liberals to gain the ascendancy again in the U.S., what is needed isnt so much an articulation and holding of a liberal center but its creation. That is, a movement needs a critical mass in order to deserve the label of ‘center’. There simply isn’t a large enough percentage of the country identifying with liberal values right now to produce such a critical mass. Achieving this will rely less on the strategies of political leaders than on the slow process of social evolution.

He is correct if any form of life is possible, shortly after the Third World War.

Illiberal leaders in previously liberal countries do not justify their authoritarianism or interventions in opposition to liberalism. In general, they position themselves as saviors of liberalism

Likewise, dictators across the world still feel the need to have rump legislatures, to hold votes on reforms, etc. They still feel the need to hold sham elections. Even Assad did this during the civil war. They still go by "president" or "prime minister" instead of "king," "emperor," "emyr" or "shah." When they attack the West, they normally do so while tacitly accepting the values of liberalism. They deride the West as not being truly democratic, as having become an oligarchy, or just as often, as having fallen into a sort of technocratic socialism. Such criticisms accept liberal values however. When they attack "Western values" such a LGBT issues, they do so using the same language used by conservative liberals within the West, speaking to "freedom to differ" and "freedom of religion" or "freedom for traditions."

Yet they decidedly do not recommend some sort of alternative ideology the way the Soviet Union did. — Count Timothy von Icarus

I prefer ‘philosophical perspective’ to ‘ideology’. Ideologies lend themselves to empty slogans abstracted away from how people actually understand themselves in their pragmatic relations with others politically, economically and ethically. Positioning oneself as a ‘savior of liberalism’ or calling one’s party ‘National Socialism’ are examples of marketing slogans that mask the profound philosophical differences that separate, say, adherents of MAGA from social liberals. What’s important is not whether two competing groups use the same language, but how far apart the meaning those concepts is in their actual use by those groups.

I am not sure whether the existing liberal center should be likened too an avocado (no), a peach (maybe), or several little apple seeds (I hope we're better than that). A really big solid avocado core would be nice. A peach pit might be all we can get in the near future. Or, maybe we are stuck with little apple seeds?

We need more energetic and articulate people like Elizabeth Warren. Bernie Sanders may consider himself a Democratic Socialist, but he is also energetic and articulate (but aging). I don't want to see Harris or a Clinton or the like taking the lead.

I have a history of further-to-the-left-than-Democratic-Socialist, and I know from experience that it is very difficult to arrest the attention of the ordinary man in the street, let alone build their interest, enthusiasm, and commitment into action (like voting). "Liberal democracy" should be a significantly easier sell than socialism. After all, liberal democracy, free enterprise, and all that are not asking anyone to lay their life on the line, give up their career, sell their property, or forgo a new iPhone. Nobody is even asking gun owners to repent and turn in their guns.

I mean, the core values of liberal democracy are not strange:

The core values of liberalism are individualism, liberty, equality, and the rule of law, emphasizing the rights of the individual and the consent of the governed. Other essential principles include private property, freedom of speech and religion, and a representative democracy supported by a mixed or market economy. I would add "the truth of science", given Secretary of Health Robert Kennedy, Jr. shitting on the truth of medical science and the administration's denial of climate warming.

However, the dichotomy between "developed countries" and "developing countries" seems quite accurate to me. — Astorre

I disagree with the vise versa part. X is defined as Western values and Western narrative, and then Y is defined as not-X. The vise versa doesn't work, because then you would be defining X as not-Y, and there would be nothing to establish the relationship to Western values. So there is no vise versa in the definitions, there is X which is Western values, and there is Y which is not-X. X cannot be defined as not-Y or you lose reference to Western values.

However, the dichotomy between "developed countries" and "developing countries" seems quite accurate to me. — Astorre

This is not the dichotomy you have defined though. You have defined Western and non-Western. The dichotomy of Western and developing, is very outdated. That is because many non-Western societies are fully developed, but simply do not have the same values as the Western. We ought not class developed non-Western together with developing non-Western, and name them all together as "developing countries. That would be a mistake.

So, you have proposed a dichotomy of "Western" and "non-Western". In no way does this equate to developed and developing. It appears like you want to include non-Western, yet developed countries, in your category of "developing". Or you just want ambiguity. Why?

I wasn’t thinking of the the American voter particularly, as this is a global problem (I’m in the U.K.). I agree about the complacency of the American voter and that there is a deep political crisis playing out there.

So you don’t see realism assumed as a foundation of the social package but rather an optional flavour? Institutions such as independent courts and a free press aren’t envisaged as basic? — apokrisis

I don't see why independent courts or a free press lead ineluctably to realism. There are different ways to conceive of liberalism, but are any of them inherently bound up with realism?

I would say it is more correct that it is realism that gets you to democracy and liberalism. A public concern for the real facts, the real truth, is the precondition. — apokrisis

I am not convinced of that either. Part of the difficulty is that trying to entangle realism with democracy or liberalism presupposes moral realism (which in this case is a moral-political realism), and the democratic sentiment of the West now generally opposes moral-political realism—where the general opposition to moral-political realism is a large part of what liberalism has come to mean.

So even if the is-ought distinction is false, the fact that a large percentage of Westerners believe it to be true itself militates against the thesis that realism and democracy go together.