Trump's war in Venezuela? Or something?

ssu

Sinking of "narcoterrorist" ships, staging of large amounts of naval asset and news of covert operations inside Venezuela are signs of Washington playing it's games in America's back yard again. What makes this ominous is the resignation of key military commanders, starting from the SOUTHCOM head, admiral Alvin Holsey, who was basically responsible for this playground in the world for the US armed forces. Military commanders can either follow the orders from the political leadership or resign, so when they start resigning, it tells something.

Yet this is the Trump presidency, which makes it quite hard to estimate just what is comes out of this? Will the "Department of War" live up to it's name or will this fade later into the background, just as with invading Greenland, Panama or Canada happened? Likely US territory won't be enlarge by pieces of Venezuela, but the question is just to what level will this conflict develop. Will it be:

a) The same as now, sinking of "narcoterrorist" vessels and few clandestine operations.
b) Surgical strikes and then a declaration that Maduro isn't a threat anymore. (Like bombing of Iran)
c) Overthrow of the regime... somehow.
d) a longer and wider war

First of all, Trump doesn't create alliances or set any real international agenda for other countries to follow. His approach in Latin America is more like "bully everyone", which actually only makes the US weaker in it's own continent in the long run. But things like that Trump doesn't care shit about. For Trump's own base, that works, because they either don't care a shit about relations with Latin America. When some leader of a Latin American country say or does something that Trump doesn't like, his first reaction is to have punitary tariffs on the country and stop any aid to the country. This basically is a recipe for making Latin American countries to feel like Canada when it comes to the US. Then there's the short attention span of the senile President. Trump lives off from being in the media and in the center stage of everything, which naturally changes a lot. There is no long term plan followed faithfully from one year to the next.

The US has enjoyed the Superpower status basically because it's alliances and good relations with other countries, a thing that the average Trump supporter is totally ignorant of, because the populist line is that everyone has unfairly benefited from this. This isn't so. A case example are the US-Columbian relations. The US systematically helped the country to fight the drug cartels of the country and also helped to deal with the leftist insurgency threat. Columbia ought to thus in good terms with the US, but not so in the Trump era.

Perhaps the only bright light here is that at least Guyana, which likely will avoid any hostility from Venezuela at this stage now. A small fact, which just tells how hideous the Maduro regime actually is.

But what do you think what will happen?

Metaphysician Undercover

↪ssu

A conviction for smuggling drugs does not produce a death sentence in the USA.

c) Overthrow of the regime... somehow. — ssu

Since the leader of Venezuela has been designated a narco-terrorist, I think that goal is clear. But viewing poor drug runners as dispensable pawns, for the purpose of inciting conflict, is pathetic.

ssu

Since the leader of Venezuela has been designated a narco-terrorist, I think that goal is clear. But viewing poor drug runners as dispensable pawns, for the purpose of inciting conflict, is pathetic. — Metaphysician Undercover

Trump doesn't care if the reasons are pathetic, which they are. As a populist he doesn't care. Everything opposing his actions is just basically "liberals whining" for him.

Punshhh

↪ssu

Trump only wants regime change because Maduro is a “leftist”. If he were on the right, Trump would be inviting him to have tea at the White House.

ssu

↪Punshhh

The left-wing populism of Hugo Chavez (which Maduro tries to continue) is quite similar to right-wing populism of Trump. Few do notice the similarity (or do want to accept the similarity), yet it is totally obvious.

Quite fitting to the moment:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/I-2r-qJcxKc

Sir2u

Sinking of "narcoterrorist" ships, staging of large amounts of naval asset and news of covert operations inside Venezuela are signs of Washington playing it's games in America's back yard again. — ssu

I live quite close to all of this and we are to a certain degree involved with the drug runners. Honduras' governments have long been accused of aiding the drug lords of south American countries. One such president is currently a guest of the federal penitentiary service in the USA. Sinking a few of these boats is not going to make that much of a difference. Cars, trucks, shipping containers, drones and even horses carry more than a few boats could ever move.

Personally, I would have thought that trump, being such a good business man, would know about the rules of supply and demand, The only reason drug lords exist is because there are drug users.
Would it not be better to go after the users within their own borders than to be picking fights with foreign countries?

Metaphysician Undercover

Personally, I would have thought that trump, being such a good business man, would know about the rules of supply and demand, The only reason drug lords exist is because there are drug users.
Would it not be better to go after the users within their own borders than to be picking fights with foreign countries? — Sir2u

Trump uses drug trafficking as a reason to declare "national emergency". This declaration gives the government the power to avoid congress. He used fentanyl smuggling from Canada (estimated less than .01% of American fentanyl comes from Canada) as his excuse to declare a national emergency, allowing him the power required to impose tariffs on Canada.

ssu

As @Metaphysician Undercover noted above, the drug war has been more of an excuse to do something with totally different objectives, not the actual reason. To deal with something like the drug trade the military isn't at all the best options, but it's a flashy way to show off that you are doing something.

Yet here does lie a major problem: just what is the military objective here? Just how is it thought to be reached? If one assumes that with naval and air power regime change would be obtained, then that objective is very optimistic indeed. Likely any airstrikes will just reinforce the support of the regime. It's not at all obvious that even killing Maduro that the regime would collapse. What about the opposition? Basically I've noticed nothing done in that sector and when Trump is already hinting the willingness to have talks with Maduro, that willingness totally undermines the support for the opposition. And anyway, many of those people against the Maduro regime have already left the country.

Hence this is more like a show of gun diplomacy and if then some strike is implemented, the result will be similar as when attacking Iran. Trump will just declare that the strikes have been successful and the Maduro regime will continue just like the Iranian regime continued on. Any contrary finding will dealt with firings, so the success of a military strike is as obvious as that there is absolutely no inflation in the US under Trump now. :wink:

Metaphysician Undercover

Basically I've noticed nothing done in that sector and when Trump is already hinting the willingness to have talks with Maduro, that willingness totally undermines the support for the opposition. — ssu

It's possible that Trump is trying to pressure Maduro into negotiations, like he does with the tariffs. The bully tactic he's known for. I think he actually likes Maduro, and wants to force him into alliance, or more likely allegiance.

Sir2u

Trump uses drug trafficking as a reason to declare "national emergency". This declaration gives the government the power to avoid congress. He used fentanyl smuggling from Canada (estimated less than .01% of American fentanyl comes from Canada) as his excuse to declare a national emergency, allowing him the power required to impose tariffs on Canada. — Metaphysician Undercover

And failed miserable in his attempt to make a profit. But how do you think he is going to win anything when the tariffs he has against Venezuela, and the countries that import oil from there, have been in place for a while now and nothing has changed.

trump is just digging holes all over the place to shit in, but then he will come back and put his foot in the hole.

Metaphysician Undercover

↪Sir2u

Probably he's after oil. He seems to be extraordinarily obsessed with keeping the price of fuel in the US low. I think he believes this will guarantee him the title of best president ever. The fuel in Venezuela could be the cheapest in the world.

Sir2u

Probably he's after oil. He seems to be extraordinarily obsessed with keeping the price of fuel in the US low. I think he believes this will guarantee him the title of best president ever. The fuel in Venezuela could be the cheapest in the world. — Metaphysician Undercover

Always a possibility I suppose, but I don't think that will work out for him. I would need a full scale invasion and take over of the country, not just removing the president. To just set up a puppet leader in the country in hopes of getting favorable prices would probable start a civil war. Not everyone is against Maduro, but those that are will want a lot from trump to stop the drug trade. It is too important to a lot of peoples economic stability.

Metaphysician Undercover

Not everyone is against Maduro, but those that are will want a lot from trump to stop the drug trade. — Sir2u

I don't think Trump gives a flying fuck about stopping the drug trade. He just uses it as leverage. You know, he'll keep up the attack, rationalizing it as being an attack on the drug trade, even threatening to take Maduro out if necessary, until he gets what he really wants from Maduro, in negotiations. That's the way he works, through bullying.

Sir2u

I don't think Trump gives a flying fuck about stopping the drug trade. — Metaphysician Undercover

Everyone knows that, why he is doing it though is another question.

He just uses it as leverage. You know, he'll keep up the attack, rationalizing it as being an attack on the drug trade, even threatening to take Maduro out if necessary, until he gets what he really wants from Maduro, in negotiations. — Metaphysician Undercover

That is one possible reason for doing it. But, just maybe he learned something from the Romans, keep the people happy and distracted with the circus. He does have a lot to cover up and he definitely needs the sheeple distracted from his future plans.

That's the way he works, through bullying. — Metaphysician Undercover

Yep, but not everyone fears him, in these parts he his seen as a bit of a clown. A clown with a big stick, but still a clown. And we still have to see how far he is going to be able to push the good people of the USA. He might just start a rebellion at home.

Metaphysician Undercover

But, just maybe he learned something from the Romans, keep the people happy and distracted with the circus. — Sir2u

The Romans? When can we have them over to the White House?

Yep, but not everyone fears him, in these parts he his seen as a bit of a clown. — Sir2u

That's the thing. You can only push so far.

Sir2u

The Romans? When can we have them over to the White House? — Metaphysician Undercover

There is already a contingent of their ideological brothers there. Their motto is "Keep the people busy watching the side shows and they will not notice you using the powers of state to increase your personal fortunes.

That's the thing. You can only push so far. — Metaphysician Undercover

And I don't think he is that capable. He couldn't push back against Putin with the whole world in his favor so I doubt that he will get far without international backing against Venezuela.

AmadeusD

I don't think Trump gives a flying fuck about stopping the drug trade.
— Metaphysician Undercover

Everyone knows that, why he is doing it though is another question. — Sir2u

Jesus Christ.

The level of omniscience people in the Lounge have, specifically about Trump makes me laugh a little less haughtily at TDS.

Metaphysician Undercover

↪AmadeusD

I think that's what the lounge is for, a place to put to use our omniscience. That practice can be called omnipotence.

What does TDS stand for, Testosterone Deficiency Syndrome?

ssu

It's possible that Trump is trying to pressure Maduro into negotiations, like he does with the tariffs. The bully tactic he's known for. I think he actually likes Maduro, and wants to force him into alliance, or more likely allegiance. — Metaphysician Undercover

Actually Maduro would be totally open for talks.

(BBC) Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has said that he is willing to hold face-to-face talks with representatives of the Trump administration as US pressure on him grows.

Maduro made the comment hours after US President Donald Trump said he had not ruled out deploying ground forces to the South American country.

But here I think you have to notice that Venezuela is here on a totally different position than let's say the threat posed by Trump to Denmark (with Greenland) or Panama. Covert operations are already underway.

Perhaps Maduro should just try to attempt to bribe Trump. Give that Trump presidential library some oil wealth.

Seriously, the Swiss got their tariffs lowered by giving Trump lavish gifts including a beautiful gold bar. So some small percentage of that oil wealth and then just wait a couple years that Trump isn't in power so you can tell it was a joke. After all, how long did Putin and the Russians have Trump oogling for them for a possible hotel build in Moscow? And we all remember how enthusiastic Trump became, when Ukrainians offered mineral rights to him.

Metaphysician Undercover

↪ssu

Yeah, I think Trump really likes gifts, it makes him feel special. Qatar gifted him a 747.

Sir2u

↪AmadeusD

I think that's what the lounge is for, a place to put to use our omniscience. That practice can be called omnipotence.

What does TDS stand for, Testosterone Deficiency Syndrome? — Metaphysician Undercover

Ditto, what he said. :lol:

Punshhh

↪Metaphysician Undercover

I think that's what the lounge is for, a place to put to use our omniscience. That practice can be called omnipotence.

What does TDS stand for, Testosterone Deficiency Syndrome?

No, that’s omnimpotence.

Metaphysician Undercover

↪Punshhh

Sure, but @AmadeusD just laughs at this very serious problem.

Sir2u

After seeing the piece of shit deal trump is offering the Ukraine, I think that maybe he just wants to make up with putin so that he can march into Venezuela without interference. He would then have his 51st state to brag about.

Trump's war in Venezuela? Or something?

Welcome to The Philosophy Forum!

Categories

More Discussions