No, it isn't.Probability is about expectations.
That is not what the condition is. It is {AWAKE}, which is can also be written as ~{HEADS&Tuesday} or {HEADS&Monday,TAILS&Monday,TAILS&Tuesday}.it sure does look like the design of the experiment involves conditioning heads on ~Tuesday,
"Random" is not a property of what you are looking at in an experiment. It is a property of what you know about it, but can't see. Either because the experiment hasn't happened yet, or it has but you can't see what happened.One thing I'm generally uncertain about is how strongly to lean on "what day today is" being random.
Still some things to puzzle through, but I'm convinced. My sojourn in the land of halferism is at its end. — Srap Tasmaner
I do still disagree about how to interpret this thing though. The failure rate of my tails-guessing Beauties is still 1/2, no matter how much they pat themselves on the back. The argument you give here totally justifies conditioning on being interviewed, so the epistemic issue isn't there; it's in this conflict between the two ways of measuring success. — Srap Tasmaner
If you take a step back, SB looks a bit like a fucked up way of doing two trials of a single experiment. (No worries about the single coin flip -- the trial is asking different subjects for their credence.) But whichever way you split, by toss outcome or by day, it's not two trials: it's one trial each for two different experiments and which experiment is being run is determined by the coin toss, and is thus the source of Beauty's uncertainty. — Srap Tasmaner
Welcome back! — Andrew M
But she isn't asked for her confidence in that situation, so this argument is a red herring. A very appealing red herring, as you go on to describe, but irrelevant nonetheless.In standard SB, on (H & Tue) our Beauty receives no information at all. — Srap Tasmaner
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