Gosh, 4 million is a lot, I don't think my spare bedroom is big enough. But back to the WTO, that unaccountable undemocratic overwhelmingly foreign organisation imposing its trade rules on us. Let's take back control, Leave the WTO! — unenlightened

I find it rather amusing that the UK has more representation on the WTO than it does on the EU Commission.

That's because it is even more undemocratic than the EU. But the British people were never consulted about joining the WTO, and we demand a referendum.

We're British! We play by no rules!

That's because it is even more undemocratic than the EU. But the British people were never consulted about joining the WTO, and we demand a referendum. — unenlightened

I also find it deeply amusing that UK is forced to be a member of WTO by the EU, yet still manages to have more representation on WTO than the EU Commission.

After Brexit, UK will effectively have to re-join WTO as an independent member.

UK citizens already have to register their residence in Finland — Inis

Looking at the timid plea asking people to register, I'm not so sure how adamant the authorities have been of this with Britons as members of the EU. You see, in our small northern country, Britons make only a tiny community. It was earlier reported that there are 4 000 Britons living here. Then the figure climbed to 4 500 and now the number has gone up to 5 000. A 25% increase tells that the numbers weren't so exact in the first place.

Britain, of course, which has to put up with hordes of Finns coming here to take advantage of the wonderful happy life that we all lead here with our super-generous benefits system and state of the art health service. — unenlightened

Of course! In your Island Kingdom there are 20 000 of our lazy freeriders with Finnish passports enjoying your benefits and just idling around and drinking beer. Just like my best friend, who works there in a managerial position at BP. Hope you throw all those bums out and among them my friend, who then perhaps has to take the job offer from the Norwegian Statoil. He just dismisses the whole Brexit thing as a non-event, so rudeness from his country of residency would be good for his cocky attitude.

And as the EU messes up everything (where the EU, there a problem) and your politicians seem not to be better, a total fiasko is possible. Looking at it positively, it would be nice that we would go back to old time travelling days when not only did you need a passport, but also a visa to enter a country. And what else to get people more happy than to make a huge immigration chaos and demand people to apply for residence permits everywhere. I can imagine all those over one million Britons living in the continent and those millions of EU citizens in your country waiting in line in overcrowded immigration centers along with the Iraqis, Syrians and Afghanis.

Here the applications from Britons for Finnish citizenship has gone up over +200%. Yet what better thing to do than create a problem for a group of foreigners that really in no way have been a problem here. Here's one story:

Originally from Manchester in England but now living in Tampere, Andrew Frankton is just beginning the process of applying for Finnish citizenship. Having lived in Finland for 22 years, he certainly meets the residency requirement - but his application is currently hindered by his poor Finnish language skills.

“If you put a gun to my head and said ‘speak Finnish’, I would just say ‘pull the trigger’,” jokes Frankton.

Undeterred, he has been attending Finnish language courses and he is determined to reach the proficiency level required to pass the YKI language test required for all applicants to qualify for Finnish citizenship. Without Finnish citizenship, his status as an EU national resident in Finland could be in question.

Unfortunately, my friend might be correct that not much if anything happens with a no-deal Brexit on the surface. Even the EU Comission has urged to take easy with Andrew Frankton and with other Britons here.

When it comes to Brits living in Finland, the Commission says the government should “take a generous approach to the rights of UK citizens” and “should take measures to ensure that UK citizens legally residing in the EU on the date of withdrawal will continue to be considered legal residents”.

I'm convinced that May will find a way to wiggle out of the Brexit that she never wanted and blame someone else for it. She's good like that.

Can’t be followed through without consequence either. And as I’ve said before, my crystal ball is telling me that the consequences of Brexit - especially a No Deal Brexit - would be worse than the consequences of revoking Article 50. — Michael

Well, I agree with your first sentence, and like I said, a No Deal Brexit is the worst case scenario, so yes, revoke Article 50 if it's a last resort to prevent a No Deal Brexit. I still don't think that we'll end up in with a No Deal Brexit, though.

I rather think we will end up with no deal brexit, because whatever happens will be very unpopular, and anyone who blinks will lose their own support without getting any new support. If May softens, the Tory party will split, if Corbyn supports a referendum Labour will split, and uniting around a horror of no deal does not amount to an agreement to act to stop it, in the face of the baying mob.And without an agreement in parliament on a change of course, even a delay is unlikely.

And then some civil unrest, economic collapse, the break up of the Union and we'll all wake up, those that survive, to find ourselves serfs on the Rees-Mog estate and grateful for it M'lud.

I'm convinced that May will find a way to wiggle out of the Brexit — Baden

Have you seen her wiggling ability? I don't believe she could wiggle her way out of a cornfield.

I'm convinced that May will find a way to wiggle out of the Brexit that she never wanted and blame someone else for it. She's good like that. — Baden

Brexit can be delayed with EU permission, but there are mixed signals from EU whether they would give permission and for how long. They have already allocated some of the UK MEP seats to other countries, and are unlikely to want their parliament turned into a farce if UK returns a load of eurosceptic MEPs in the May EU elections.

If May wants to stop Brexit altogether, she is going to need primary legislation, and I'm unaware of any on the horizon.

The EU has offered a free trade deal in return for Northern Ireland.

She wiggled her way out of supporting a hard Brexit by dumping her red lines in the Irish sea. As a consequence there was a leadership challenge which she wiggled her way out of losing by promising to step down at the next election. Then she wiggled her way out of having to support the soft Brexit she didn't really want either by conspiring to lose the vote on it by a record margin. Next she'll wiggle out of no-deal by extending the deadline or some other such maneuver by getting the moderates in her party to rebel against her. And finally she'll find a way to wiggle out of any Brexit at all by getting Labour or some cross-party alliance to leave her no other choice. That's a lot of wiggling for someone stuck in a cornfield.

Nah, she is stuck with the leadership of a party that unanimously despises her, but wants to keep her in place to take the blame, and she is stuck trying to implement a policy she does not believe in, and that nobody wants. As a consummate wiggler myself, I would in her shoes force both sides to support me by threatening to resign and thereby make someone else have to take the blame - ideally Corbyn. My real nightmare scenario for Labour is that she calls a general election, delays brexit and contrives to split the Conservatives, forcing a Labour win. And then it will all be their fault.

Well, call me a Pollyanna, but I still reckon Jacob Mouse-Mugg is more likely to get eggs Benedict all over his face rather than the Bulldog's breakfast of Brexit he so covets.

Well, call me a Pollyanna, but I still reckon Jacob Mouse-Mugg is more likely to get eggs Benedict all over his face rather than the Bulldog's breakfast of Brexit he so covets. — Baden

How can Brexit be stopped? By law, EU treaties cease to apply to UK on 29th March.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/eu-could-extend-brexit-deadline-if-london-provides-good-reason-11130682

There is provision for extending the A50 notice in the Withdrawal Act. But how long would the EU be willing to grant the extension for? And, as far as I can ascertain, such an extension can only happen once.

Would make the EU elections in May very interesting.

But how long would the EU be willing to grant the extension for? — Inis

I don't know, but a no-deal is not inevitable nor is any Brexit at all (though some kind of Brexit is more likely than a no-deal imo). And I don't expect a no-deal because I expect economic concerns will trump ideological ones.

This is the best Brexit diagnosis I've seen. The right historical context, the usual suspects identified.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html?fbclid=IwAR2sgBKxor3h21jsmofR6fnFF4RcMyMPY8neibY5MITliUbf6mKOYxsZLOk

This is the best Brexit diagnosis I've seen. The right historical context, the usual suspects identified. — unenlightened

Hysterical claptrap. UK trades profitably with the rest of the world under WTO, and many countries lining up for a trade deal, including USA, Japan, and Commonwealth countries. UK's problem is its £95billion deficit in traded goods with EU. An economic disaster.

I don't know, but a no-deal is not inevitable nor is any Brexit at all (though some kind of Brexit is more likely than a no-deal imo). And I don't expect a no-deal because I expect economic concerns will trump ideological ones. — Baden

Under UK Law, a no-deal Brexit is the default, and will happen, unless something better is agreed. 700,000 German jobs depend on selling goods to UK.

Hysterical claptrap. — Inis

A knock down argument as always.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World

Chances of official Brexit by the deadline currently hovering at around 25% according to those with skin (i.e. hard cash) in the game. Even that's generous, I'd say. Read a bit more about parliament's power to thwart Brexit and anti-Brexit Tory rebels like Oliver Letwin and you'll see why.

E.g. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/cross-party-alliance-of-mps-tells-may-we-will-stop-no-deal-brexit

Chances of official Brexit by the deadline currently hovering at around 25% according to those with skin (i.e. hard cash) in the game. Even that's generous, I'd say. Read a bit more about parliament's power to thwart Brexit and anti-Brexit Tory rebels like Oliver Letwin and you'll see why. — Baden

How do you think Brexit might be stopped?

Brexit is a criminal conspiracy against the British people.

Cameron was a eurosceptic who sabotaged his credibility, and lost on purpose for Remain.

He cancelled an EU-ID card scheme in 2010, and his Home Secretary Theresa May presented the bill to Parliament. The same year he made a bizarre immigration pledge - adding, "or vote me out" - which Theresa May failed to deliver in spectacular fashion.

Cameron announced there would be a referendum in 2013, in defiance of the expressed will of Parliament in 2011, who rejected a referendum by 485/111. Cameron then made it a manifesto commitment the Commons could not block, and the Lords could not amend. So Cameron DICTATED there would be an in/out referendum on the EU.

The EUID card could have given UK government exact numbers on who came and went, how long they stayed, and - as allowed under EU law, remove them if not employed after three months.

Instead, 330,000 EU immigrants in 2015, figures published during the campaign period.

Add to that Cameron's "renegotiation" weeks before the vote - that was predestined to fail because it asked for things that would require EU treaty change. It served to educate the public - with all the coverage it got in the media, but had no genuine purpose.

As soon as he touched back down on UK soil, he appointed himself chief advocate for Remain - and appointed his aide, Craig Oliver, to oversee the Remain campaign.

When Cameron resigned, Craig Oliver was recommended for a knighthood. May was promoted to Prime Minister - and is pushing on with brexit based on a crooked referendum, a marginal vote, rejected by MP's, and rejected by the House of Lords, regardless!

It's a criminal conspiracy.

Brexit is a criminal conspiracy against the British people. — karl stone

How would you characterise the Soros funded campaign by the elites to undermine democracy?

So what could actually prevent a no-deal Brexit on 29 March? Here are all the options:

1. If the deal is ratified – approved – by the UK Parliament and the European Parliament without conditions or amendments. In this case, Brexit under the terms negotiated by Mrs May proceeds.

2. If the deal is ratified by the UK Parliament with conditions or amendments. These would then need to be agreed with the European Council, consented to by the European Parliament, and the Council of the European Union will need to conclude the deal acting by qualified majority. It is questionable whether there is time for this, so this option may need to be combined with 3(a) below.

3. If the UK and the EU27 agree to delay the date that the UK leaves the EU, while one of the following takes place: a) Further negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement or the Framework for the Future Relationship; b) A general election; c) A second referendum.

4. The UK rescinding its notification under Article 50 and remaining in the EU.

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/can-mps-actually-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-from-happening/

I just can't see Parliament getting its head far enough out of its arse to manage any of this. I think 2 would require 3 for definite, and 3a has been ruled out by the EU. 1 would require a climb-down of huge proportions that seems very unlikely -115 MPs changing their minds.

The chances of settling on a referendum seem small at the moment, a general election might be more attractive, but it's hard to see how it can be arrived at.

4. Is simple enough to be doable, but since the whole thing is about the mismatch between politicians and electorate MPs will be much frit.

So I conclude that No deal is the most likely result because politicians are weak, irresponsible and incompetent.

Brexit would very likely lead to breaking of UK, Scotland preferring EU as independent and Northern Ireland preferring EU as member of Ireland. Tory leadership (unlike Tory and UKIP voters) most likely considers EU membership as lesser evil that UK breaking up and only England and Wales remaining. This, most likely, is the decisive, fundamental calculation.

Next, tactical question for Tory leadership, how to avoid Brexit and put the political blame of remaining on the opposition? As it seems, the tactic seems to be to botch up the "deal" on purpose, and leave it to majority of House of Commons to take initiative to last minute revoke of article 50 nominally "against" the May government, to avoid threat of no deal Brexit, but de facto doing exactly as planned. And majority of the public opinion wrath goes against Labour.

Brexit is a criminal conspiracy against the British people.
— karl stone

How would you characterise the Soros funded campaign by the elites to undermine democracy? — Inis

I'd have to ask - when you say "democracy" what on earth are you referring to?

I'd have to ask - when you say "democracy" what on earth are you referring to? — karl stone

Well, in the specific case of Brexit, democracy is embodied in the referendum, its result. and the government's promise to implement the result. This culminated in the EU (Withdrawal) Act which became law in June 2018.

The well-funded attempts by the Establishment, the Elites, and Corporatists to undermine the democratic process, will have repercussions far beyond Brexit, if they succeed.

I don't know, but a no-deal is not inevitable nor is any Brexit at all (though some kind of Brexit is more likely than a no-deal imo). And I don't expect a no-deal because I expect economic concerns will trump ideological ones. — Baden

Yes, regarding a no-deal, I'm actually looking forward to the "I told ya so!" moment. But if it ends up being another scenario like the last presidential election, I'm going to be pissed. Hopefully the world hasn't gone completely mad.

Thus far, I like the way that the opposition parties and rebels within the governing party have forced the weak and unstable government's hand on a number of Brexit related issues. Theresa May threatens a no-deal, but would she actually go through with it? She was a Remainer, and doing that would turn a lot of people against her and potentially ruin her career, which is already hanging on the edge of a knife.