1. If an advanced alien civ discovers a nearby advanced civ, the probability there's another nearby advanced civ increases dramatically. — RogueAI
2. It follows from (1) that the probability of there being a more powerful nearby alien civ also increases.
3. Advanced alien civs are likely to be keeping an eye on things in their local neighborhood.
4. Therefore, advanced alien civs that come in contact with each other have to assume it's very possible a more advanced civ is observing how the interaction plays out. They have to think it's entirely possible they're playing to an unseen audience.
5. Planets are sitting ducks, and it would be trivially easy for a powerful advanced alien civ to accelerate an asteroid/comet/swarm of projectiles to, say, 10% the speed of light, and hit your planet with it. Powerful advanced alien civs, therefore, are potential existential threats.
6. Existential threats are to be avoided at all costs.
7. Acting aggressively increases the probability that an unseen powerful alien civ would respond negatively to such aggression.
8. Non-aggression, therefore, is the best strategy, if continued survival is a high priority.
I don't see why this is necessarily so.
Again - I don't see why this is so.
Maybe, but it's based on a couple of assumptions I don't necessarily think are valid.
I posted a long reply, went to edit it, and the whole thing disappeared. — RogueAI
The probability the only two advanced species in the galaxy are near each other is very low. Therefore, it's probable there are more than two advanced species in the galaxy. If you run into a nearby one, you can conclude there are probably a lot, which raises the possibility of one nearby you. — RogueAI
If the probability "advanced alien life exists" increases to essentially 1, then the probability "alien life more advanced than me exists" also increases. — RogueAI
They're safe assumptions. — RogueAI
An advanced alien civ is going to be concerned with self-preservation and will have the tech and means to send probes out to nearby interesting planets and keep tabs on any lifeforms there. The art of war won't be any different for aliens, and a first principle is "know your enemy". — RogueAI
This doesn't make any sense to me.
I don't think so. They seem more like fantasy to me.
The probability the only two advanced species in the galaxy are near each other is very low. Therefore, it's probable there are more than two advanced species in the galaxy. If you run into a nearby one, you can conclude there are probably a lot, which raises the possibility of one nearby you.
@RogueAI
This doesn't make any sense to me. — T Clark
This is why Oxford University philosopher Nick Bostrom says that “no news is good news.” The discovery of even simple life on Mars would be devastating, because it would cut out a number of potential Great Filters behind us. And if we were to find fossilized complex life on Mars, Bostrom says “it would be by far the worst news ever printed on a newspaper cover,” because it would mean The Great Filter is almost definitely ahead of us—ultimately dooming the species. Bostrom believes that when it comes to The Fermi Paradox, “the silence of the night sky is golden.”
I don't have any opinion one way or the other, but you might want to check this alternative approach: Dark Forest Theory
No, I don’t think going by a strictly probability based method is the BEST strategy. Its A strategy, but it will always better to make a data based decision. These aliens would be much better off if they kept looking after finding a nearby habited planet, to make sure they don’t have to worry about bigger badder aliens interfering.
And what other data would be helpful? Whats the first planet like? Worth conquering? Is trade a better option if there is a resource they need?
The wisest approach is never just a probability calculation.
What has all this got to do with finding life on Mars? Consider the implications of
discovering that life had evolved independently on Mars (or some other planet in our
solar system). That discovery would suggest that the emergence of life is not a very
improbable event. If it happened independently twice here in our own back yard, it
must surely have happened millions times across the galaxy. This would mean that the
Great Filter is less likely to occur in the early life of planets and is therefore more likely
still to come.
If we discovered some very simple life forms on Mars in its soil or under the ice at the
polar caps, it would show that the Great Filter must exist somewhere after that period in
evolution. This would be disturbing, but we might still hope that the Great Filter was
located in our past. If we discovered a more advanced life‐form, such as some kind of
multi‐cellular organism, that would eliminate a much larger stretch of potential locations
where the Great Filter could be. The effect would be to shift the probability more
strongly to the hypothesis that the Great Filter is ahead of us, not behind us. And if we
discovered the fossils of some very complex life form, such as of some vertebrate‐like
creature, we would have to conclude that the probability is very great that the bulk of the
Great Filter is ahead of us. Such a discovery would be a crushing blow. It would be by
far the worst news ever printed on a newspaper cover.
So, you have a 1 in 3 chance to be right.
When two alien civs discover each other, each will have to deal with the following disjunctive proposition: "Either there are only two advanced races in the galaxy who happen to find themselves right next to each other OR there are more than two advanced races in the galaxy". They can't both be true, and since the probability "two advanced races in the galaxy happen to find themselves right next to each other" is exceedingly unlikely, the disjunct is therefore exceedingly likely: "there are more than two advanced races in the galaxy". — RogueAI
Makes sense to me. Independently evolved advanced species in close proximity supports a prediction that the population of advanced species in the galaxy is relatively large (relative to a scenario where distances between advanced species is great). With a large population and without evidence that our civilization is more advanced than the norm, it is reasonable to expect other advanced civilizations in the vicinity and that the distance to the nearest civilization more advanced than us is relatively short. — JosephS
Ah, but suppose there is something unique to our little sector of the galaxy which makes it the only habitable place for advanced life. In that case, two alien civs bumping into each other wouldn't seem so remote. Is this little patch of the Milky Way we're in that special? — RogueAI
Ah, but suppose there is something unique to our little sector of the galaxy which makes it the only habitable place for advanced life. In that case, two alien civs bumping into each other wouldn't seem so remote. Is this little patch of the Milky Way we're in that special?
— @RogueAI
No, you've misunderstood how things work on the forum. Here's the way it's supposed to work - You tell me I'm wrong, and then I make up lame excuses why I'm right after all. — T Clark
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