So you've seen the light, that's a weight off my mind.

But have you told Trump about this? Because obviously they need to know.

I dont see the point, I can't see any way out of this for Trump. Well apart from his accepting that Iran will become a nuclear power, perhaps he can live with that. I doubt Israel can.

I'm not partisan, I'm over the pond. My interest is how the Middle East is going to kick off. My only concern is that there isn't a nuclear conflagration in the region. Its looking more likely now. Especially if this is the beginning of the US moving out of the region. — Punshhh

I'm an old, as the kids say. In grade school -- full disclosure, this was during the Eisenhower administration -- we used to talk about current events. The Middle East was about to blow up. I remember something we all agreed in class: That when WWIII starts, it will start in the Middle East.

Now it's all these many years later, and the Middle East is still about to blow up and we all agree that when WWIII starts, it will start in the Middle East.

You have a good insight about the bloody mess that's going to follow when the US leaves. That's the problem. I'm a peacenik and we never should have gone in. I think we should leave tomorrow morning. But when we do, things are going to be really really bad. And the US will be blamed. Colin Powell said about invading Iraq: "You break it, you bought it." And we broke it. We're screwed if we stay and screwed if we go. That is the legacy of Bush's war, aided and abetted by the NYT, Hillary, Joe Biden, and the rest of the Democratic establishment. No wonder there's a populist uprising, imperfect as its leader may be.

I agree, that it was Bush and Blair who ramped it up over there. But the meddling in the region goes back a long way. As I see it, the US has always taken to hard a line, had they worked more constructively with Iran following the gulf war and with some respect things would be just fine by now. It was always going to be a struggle to prevent them getting a nuclear bomb, but I do think the region could have been calmed down and the way forward positive by now. But the US always takes this tough line and rubs proud leaders in the region up the wrong way. Now Trump has lobbed a stink bomb in there for what appears to be purposes of electioneering. Also he is endorsing Israel which is getting increasing paranoid and tetchy.

Have you ever considered the events of the last few days between America and Iran showing a greater understanding and appreciation of each other than ever before?

ow Trump has lobbed a stink bomb in there — Punshhh

For what it's worth I supported Obama's Iran deal, imperfect as it was. For someone who wants to get us out of the wars, Trump's Iran policy has been counterproductive IMO.

Trump and the those hotheads with that missile. Perhaps they were given the nod by the leaders, who then put out the press reports that it was an engine fire, afterwards. — Punshhh

It now seems that it was the air defence system that mis-identified the flight as a hostile, which does seem plausible.

However I agree that Trump's policy towards Iran is incoherent and motivated mainly by his hatred of Obama.

Hillary said she'd obliterate Iran. — fishfry

...in response to an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel.

It now seems that it was the air defence system that mis-identified the flight as a hostile, which does seem plausible

Plausible until one considers that the missiles where positioned, or at least covering the flight path of domestic flights in and out of the airport.

Have you ever considered the events of the last few days between America and Iran showing a greater understanding and appreciation of each other than ever before?

I must admit, I really don't know what to say now.

For what it's worth I supported Obama's Iran deal, imperfect as it was. For someone who wants to get us out of the wars

Agreed, it was imperfect and did perhaps give Iran to much space to get involved in the proxy wars and enrich some uranium. But I thought it was as good as it was going to get. Iran was become more prosperous again and would at some point become more moderate on their own. Rubbing them up the wrong way as Trump is doing is uniting them against him. The US may now have to withdraw from the region.

Have you ever considered the events of the last few days between America and Iran showing a greater understanding and appreciation of each other than ever before? — Brett

Oh you mean like JFK and Nikita Khrushchev had after the Cuban missile crisis, where we were going to WW3?

Cold War continued afterwards with quite a lot of intensity. In 1983 the Soviets were really thinking that Reagan was contemplating an out-of-the-blue sudden nuclear strike on the Soviet Union.

(I think it's well known that Iranians can be reasonable, if you just put aside the Middle Eastern death rants intended for the domestic crowd. And then again, Americans can be reasonable too.)

I think it's well known that Iranians can be reasonable, if you just put aside the Middle Eastern death rants intended for the domestic crowd. And then again, Americans can be reasonable too.) — ssu

I know the Shah wasn’t too popular, but people forget what Iran was once like.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-4148684/Stunning-photos-reveal-life-Iran-revolution.html

It now seems that it was the air defence system that mis-identified the flight as a hostile, which does seem plausible. — Wayfarer

I don't think that's plausible at all. Modern anti-air systems have all sorts of mechanics in place to avoid that from happening. For example, civilian aircraft broadcast their position and ID continuously. They have Identification Friend-or-Foe (IFF) systems. Furthermore, they fly at speeds and altitudes that make them easy to identify.
Additionally, these systems require well-trained crews to operate. It is not like one gets behind the wheel and starts shooting.
The scenario of accidentally shooting down an airliner with modern anti-air equipment is very unlikely.

I know the Shah wasn’t too popular, but people forget what Iran was once like.

This is geopolitics, America shouldn't have meddled in Iran in the first place.

I noticed you linked to The Daily Mail, one of the worst bigoted racist gutter rags in Britain, it should be burnt in the streets. I appreciate you probably didn't know this, my rant was not personal, or directed at you. People who don't live in the UK should be aware of the gutter press we have to put up with. I note Meghan Markle is moving to Canada now.

You’re very good at missing the point. It doesn’t matter what the newspaper was, it’s the photos that were important, which you completely ignored, and what Iran was once. It was about the people of Iran. Did you bother to look at them?

I answered the point in the first sentence. The second paragraph was an off topic criticism of a newspaper.

Going back to the point. I know what Iran used to be like and I felt the pain in 1979. But the US had become involved by that point and it may have been unsustainable, the imposition of western values in these countries. If the US had treated the Iranians with respect in the interim as they deserved, they might be best of friends by now, I know this is a big if. But the distrust, duplicity and superior arrogance of the US has not gone down well in the region. This may now be the end game.

The problem being what happens next if the US pulls out?

[q

I'm a peacenik and we never should have gone in. I think we should leave tomorrow morning. — fishfry

The problem with this perspective is that once you've carried out an action, and determined that it was a mistaken action, you cannot simply undo the mistake. So "we never should have gone in" does not justify "we should leave". When you put yourself into such a position, as having made a mistake, you are forced to live with the consequences, and the consequences of such a mistake are retributive requirements. It is utterly wrong to walk away from a mistaken action pretending that it didn't happen.

In fairness, you take a lot of flak on Trump from just about every angle and manage to stay remarkably good-natured about it, which is admirable. And with 15 small businesses, I imagine you have headaches enough on your plate. — Baden

Thank you kindly Baden :flower:

At the moment on Iran, I'm at the thank-fuck-nobody-else-had-to-die stage. Hope it stays like that for the forseeable. — "Baden

From your lips to God's ears :pray:

I'll ask you what I asked NOS4A2 and didn't get much of an answer, how will Trump prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb? — Punshhh

I believe that it would be naive to think that Iran does not already have a nuclear bomb. Knowledge obtained can rarely be eliminated.

I believe that it would be naive to think that Iran does not already have a nuclear bomb. Knowledge obtained can rarely be eliminated.

Yes, I had considered that, the Russians could have given them one. I don't see why they would not want to tell the world about it. Because the main purpose of nuclear bombs seems to be to waive them in other people's faces.

The problem with this perspective is that once you've carried out an action, and determined that it was a mistaken action, you cannot simply undo the mistake. So "we never should have gone in" does not justify "we should leave". — Metaphysician Undercover

In practical terms I agree. If we left there would be a bloodbath. This is how we stayed so long in Vietnam. We didn't want to "waste" all the lives and money already lost. So we wasted plenty more before Congress finally had enough and cut off funds for the war.

So as I said, we're screwed if we stay in Iraq and screwed if we leave. The disaster was inevitable the day we invaded. No way out.

Hillary said she'd obliterate Iran.
— fishfry
...in response to an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel. — Wayfarer

True, but she received a lot of criticism at the time, including from Obama. Her warmongering is what cost her the Dem nomination. So yes, she was making a hypothetical point. But her language revealed her character. If you criticize me for taking her remark out of context, would you level the same charge at Obama?

Obama: Clinton's 'obliterate' Iran statement too much like Bush

https://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/04/dems.election/

As per my latest fit of POTUS (Piece. Of. Totally. Useless. Shit.) Derangement Syndrome:

:roll: :grimace:

On January 3, 2020, in a WH statement from Mar-a-Lago, President tRUMP claimed (sole) credit for ordering the assassination of the world's "number-one terrorist" ...

As President, my highest and most solemn duty is the defense of our nation and its citizens.

Last night, at my direction, the United States military successfully executed a flawless precision strike that killed the number-one terrorist anywhere in the world, Qasem Soleimani.

[ ... ]

For years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its ruthless Quds Force — under Soleimani’s leadership — has targeted, injured, and murdered hundreds of American civilians and servicemen ... — Individual-1

... US-ally against ISIS/Daesh in Iraq & Syria since 2014 (BBC) AND former(?) tRUMP Organization business partner - from as far back as 2012 - as reported on in April 2017. According to the PATRIOT ACT and title 18 of the United States Code, sections 2339A and 2339B, providing material support for terrorism is a Federal crime. :point: Read it - die Lügenpresse? :monkey: - and weep, lil MAGAts.

:scream:

UPDATE:

In order to get elected, @BarackObama will start a war with Iran. — @realDonaldTrump, Nov. 29, 2011

Projection. (Hater's gotta hate.)

Mr. Trump, after the strike, told associates he was under pressure to deal with Gen. Soleimani from GOP senators he views as important supporters in his impeachment trial in the Senate ... — WSJ, Jan. 9, 2020

Self-interest at the expense (risk) of the National Interest (i.e. Abuse of Power).

:shade:

@ArguingWAristotleTiff

The scenario of accidentally shooting down an airliner with modern anti-air equipment is very unlikely. — Tzeentch

The Americans did it in 1990-something, to an Iranian 747.

//correction - airbus//

Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai via Bandar Abbas that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by an SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes, a guided-missile cruiser of the United States Navy. The aircraft, an Airbus A300, was destroyed and all 290 people on board were killed.[1] The jet was hit while flying over Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf, along the flight's usual route, shortly after departing Bandar Abbas International Airport, the flight's stopover location. Vincennes had entered Iranian territory after one of its helicopters drew warning fire from Iranian speedboats operating within Iranian territorial limits.[2][3]

The reason for the shootdown has been disputed between the governments of the two countries. According to the United States government, the crew of USS Vincennes had incorrectly identified the Airbus as an attacking F-14 Tomcat, a U.S.-made jet fighter that had been part of the Iranian Air Force inventory since the 1970s.

*

Apparently the Iranians have admitted to shooting the airliner down. I must say that surprises me. Their air defenses must either be old or its operators incompetent. User error is the reason stated.

I think the country was in a state of startled chaos, anything could have happened. It doesn't bode well for when they get their nuclear bomb.

Baden, President Trump is a personality that I think you misunderstand. If you listen closely you will hear that he "streams of conscious" when he speaks. — ArguingWAristotleTiff

I missed this. Such an interesting comment. If people could get over their bias they might be able to observe a very interesting historic figure in their own time.

Yes, I can see the kogs turning behind his eyes. I am familiar with stream of consciousness and what I see is someone who is not reciting a prepaired speech, but improvising. That is not stream of consciousness.