I myself will allways opt for Brussells rule to Moscow rule. The cacophony of the EU is far better than the single voice of Mr Putin. You see, all alone we'd have to listen to Vlad. — ssu

How connected is Putin to Brexit?

The issue is about sovereignty. How much country loses sovereignty in being in the EU. The fundamental question in Brexit.

Finland being in the EU can have a totally different foreign policy towards the Russia if it would be not a member of the EU. As a EU member it can refer to EU policies: "We're part of EU, so we have to do these sanctions". Just compare Russia's "Near Abroad": Baltic States (EU members, NATO members) to those which aren't either in EU or NATO (Ukraine, Georgia). Ukraine's and Georgia's sovereignty has been truly challenged by Russia... far more than the EU would do.

Hence my sentence my preferment to "Brussels rule than Moscow rule".

So single market is out. That means a bespoke agreement on trade tariffs. That's not going to happen in the remaining 11 months. That automatically means that it's in both parties best interest to identify what industries have the highest priorities for them and see whether some agreement can be reached. And there we might stumble on another piece of national politics in the UK. It's pretty clear the financial services industry is the most important sector in the UK. But Johnson opens himself up to a lot of criticism if that is the first thing he's going to negotiate. — Benkei

Financial services it is then: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/11/barnier-tells-uk-dont-kid-yourself-about-financial-services-deal

They've correctly identified the most important sector and the sector that has the most to lose. UK companies can still sell goods into the EU even without a deal but at increased costs that are relatively straight-forward. UK financial companies simply won't be allowed to operate in the EU after the transition period without an agreement to the contrary. That will require staffed subsidiaries, two regulatory regimes to adhere to setting up parallel risk management systems, etc. etc.

Yes, financial services is going to be disastrous for the negotiations, when it comes to the fore. Yesterday Michael Gove gave a speech laying out the governments policy to abandon any efforts to maintain frictionless trade. They are starting plans to have customs checks on all imports into the country from the EU. I expect they had already abandoned any hopes that there wouldn't be customs checks for goods leaving UK bound for the EU. Just in time supply chains are going to be difficult to protect now and manufacturers who rely on such supply chains are going to be planning to move their factories to the EU now.

All this was vehemently denied by the Leave campaign (government), indeed up to a few weeks, or days, ago Johnson swore blind that we will secure frictionless trade.

More evidence of the dishonesty and duplicity of the PM and his government.

Sajid Javid, the chancellor of the exchequer, the second highest office in the government has resigned this morning. Having been given an ultimatum requiring him to dismiss his key advisers and accept some others appointed by No10.

Or in other words he refused to take direction from Johnson and Cummings. Interestingly he has been replaced by Rishi Sunak, who has had a meteoric rise recently, a talented hawk, who is married to the daughter of Indian billionaire Nagavara Ramarao Narayana Murthy.

More evidence of the new administration consolidating power in order to push forward a hard right agenda. Or it is a sign of the paranoia of Johnson and Cummings, turning inwards and demanding to hold all the reigns from the centre.

More evidence of the new administration consolidating power in order to push forward a hard right agenda. Or it is a sign of the paranoia of Johnson and Cummings, turning inwards and demanding to hold all the reigns from the centre. — Punshhh

The latter I think. Like any demagogue populist leader Boris wants yes-men in his cabinet. Unlike Trump he has the wit not to lose his temper publicly with those who stand up to him.The NI secretary Julian Smith also went, despite universal praise for getting the assembly working again. His crime? Having some thoughts of his own. Cummings seems to be becoming drunk with power, almost Rasputin-like. I wonder how long before he goes off the Boris-rails?

Nice summary. Yes I expect Cummings to be found unconscious in some gutter somewhere around Fleet st, worse for wear.

There is talk about the border poll in Ireland and that it is a requirement of the Good Friday Agreement that the pole be held should public opinion in Northern Ireland demand it. This is under international law. Next Scotland, these are unstoppable forces and Johnson knows it, but he is prepared to throw the Union under the buss to get his term in No10 and save the Party*.


* I reiterate my view that there is a wider agenda than this. That it is imperative for the Tory party to do this on the back of Brexit to force the country to the right, while demonising Labour in order to secure Tory dominance for another generation. Because they have looked over the edge of the abyss of a turn to the left and socialism.

What is the root cause of all of these right wing party takeovers of Western democracies?

I see it as a reaction to the subprime mortgage crash of 2008. The dominance of Capitalism was put under question, to restore the economies and the remedy the problem socialism might be in order. The trouble is the powerful vested interests within the establishments are becoming protectionist, they will fight against any move towards socialism, because it weakens them both politically and financially.

To them, the privileged, more equality feels like repression, a loss of that privilege and they will fight to keep their privilege even if it is bad for the economy, or the country. The answer in their eyes is populism.

I think the Syrian refugee crisis was a big factor, at least in Europe.

What is the root cause of all of these right wing party takeovers of Western democracies? — Noah Te Stroete

People are getting smarter about the left? :smirk:

The left is in a bad place. It's losing it's traditional supporters in the working class by going woke, leaving the immigration issue only to the right as it condemns the discussion on immigration to be racist and xenophobic. With a condemnation you won't get far in a debate, especially if the issue is important to the voters. And if any criticism of EU is also portrayed to be nativist/xenophobic/racist, then again you are leaving the field to the right. Here also the right has had it's problems, but it has been far better in engaging the issue. Hence if you have only the old rhetoric added with silly wokeness, there's not much you are giving. And of course, not many people work in the factories and the coal mines anymore.

And if you ever have noticed, right wing parties have been in power. I think Sweden is one of those examples of where the left has been in power for a long time in a Western democracy. Sweden is the perfect example of what a genuine leftist non-Soviet style pro-free market social democracy looks like. Yes, the last sentence sounds like an oxymoron, but it really isn't.

What is totally amazing is that after a long time in power in the UK, the conservatives could get such a huge victory in the elections. They'll surely be now happy with Boris.

What is totally amazing is that after a long time in power in the UK, the conservatives could get such a huge victory in the elections. They'll surely be now happy with Boris. — ssu

I'm afraid I blame the blinkered left-wingers in the Labour party for this catastrophic dereliction of duty. In the '80s Labour swung left and spent a decade in the wildnerness. Now they've done it again under Corbyn. What is the definition of a fool? Someone who does the same thing twice and expects different results. (Or is that 'insanity'? I forget). If there's one thing to be said for populism it's that its politicians do listen to the voters. Boris has won on that simple realisation..

There is talk about the border poll in Ireland and that it is a requirement of the Good Friday Agreement that the pole be held should public opinion in Northern Ireland demand it. This is under international law. Next Scotland, these are unstoppable forces and Johnson knows it, but he is prepared to throw the Union under the buss to get his term in No10 and save the Party*. — Punshhh

This is Sinn Fein sabre-rattling isn't it? It's not clear whether the poll they favour would involve the Irish voters too (if they get to decide, it will). Doesnt the GF agreement stipulate a poll for NI voters alone?

This is Sinn Fein sabre-rattling isn't it? — Tim3003

Yeah but no but. N Ireland has to vote for unification, but that becomes possible with Brexit together with the change in demographics. The rest of the UK would be fairly comfortable with a united Ireland, except for the encouragement it would give Scotland. But the people who will hate it are the, ahem Conservative and Unionist Party. So there is at least a chance that when the breakup shit hits the brexit fan, the Tories themselves will find it convenient to dump Boris. He's well hated already. Tory leaders quite often end up on the sacrificial altar.

I'm afraid I blame the blinkered left-wingers in the Labour party for this catastrophic dereliction of duty. In the '80s Labour swung left and spent a decade in the wildnerness. Now they've done it again under Corbyn. What is the definition of a fool? Someone who does the same thing twice and expects different results. (Or is that 'insanity'? I forget). If there's one thing to be said for populism it's that its politicians do listen to the voters. Boris has won on that simple realisation.. — Tim3003

And do notice how much hatred there is for Blair. Centrism is abhorred, yet centrism has gotten the left to power. From the graph below you can see that UK has been dominated by conservative governments and the labour governments have been the exception:



The real problem is that political parties are stubborn to realize when they have gone wrong, because there is constantly a power struggle going on. If the leadership would accept that it has made serious mistakes, then naturally it couldn't continue (there isn't so much forgiveness in politics). So it's easier just to blame the media, the Russians, whatever,... than to admit that the course of the party hasn't been the optimal one.

That these problems are noted in leftist circles and debated can be seen for example from this interview:

Yes, this is the issue. The traditional Labour voter has largely disappeared, due to social economic changes. Blair only got in because he managed to court the middle ground and moderate Tory vote, while the Conservatives were in a mess. So the majority is in the middle and soft right and has been so since Thatcher.

The demographic is changing though now. There is little support for the Tory's in the young and they have no strategy to win their support. There is an existential crisis around the corner for the Tory's and they know this. Which is why we have been conned into Brexit and a hard right agenda to try and force the country to the right.

Somehow I don't think it is going to succeed.

The demographic is changing though now. — Punshhh

Yes, there is the demographic transition. British (as Europeans) aren't having many babies anymore with the fertility rate being 1,8 so only immigration is making the population grow.

There is little support for the Tory's in the young and they have no strategy to win their support. — Punshhh

This is something similar to the US. Simply put it, as nobody under 29 has lived when there was the Soviet Union, the 20th Century left is only a vague history, which every older leftist can now brush aside. When you listen to Bernie Sanders or even Zizek, they aren't your classic marxist-leninists. What you people have experienced from the "left" has been is basically been a centrist agenda done by leftist parties. For young people, Thatcher and Blair seem to be quite same: both have been part of the establishment.

There is an existential crisis around the corner for the Tory's and they know this. — Punshhh

Two things. People grow old and change their views and voter can be dismayed by poor performance. Only a few hippies stayed hippies. A lot of the radicalized youths later came yuppies and middle class. And that existential panic is actually good for any political party. One shouldn't rest on one's laurels.

There is little support for the Tory's in the young and they have no strategy to win their support. — Punshhh

Given the last election they don't need the support of the young to win.

The traditional Labour voter has largely disappeared, due to social economic changes. — Punshhh

This! The working class used to be something to identify with/as. Real men with real jobs, salt of the earth, aspirational, and wielding a collective power.

Nobody wants to identify with the foreign, the downtrodden the sick, the disabled, the unemployed, the insane, the useless takers of society. Especially not those who are any of those. They'd rather vote for a fantasy.

Two things. People grow old and change their views and voter can be dismayed by poor performance. Only a few hippies stayed hippies. A lot of the radicalized youths later came yuppies and middle class. And that existential panic is actually good for any political party.

This crisis is real, it's deep and they can't see a way to avoid it. The younger generation is saddled with student debt and can't buy their own houses. They have become financially disenfranchised from the older, baby boomers, who benefited from the good times in the 1980's and 90's and the big increases in house prices. Not only this, but they have seen through the capitalism promised by the Tory's and can see how they represent the greedy and privileged. They look at the crises in public services and the lack of management of them by the Tory's. What is in it for them if they vote Tory?

The younger generation is saddled with student debt and can't buy their own houses. — Punshhh

Student loan debt isn't real debt.

Given the last election they don't need the support of the young to win.

Give it a little time. The Tory's do now have to deliver on all those promises.

Yes I know that student debt can be seen that way. But try getting a mortgage and say that to your broker.

This crisis is real, it's deep and they can't see a way to avoid it. The younger generation is saddled with student debt and can't buy their own houses. They have become financially disenfranchised from the older, baby boomers, who benefited from the good times in the 1980's and 90's and the big increases in house prices. Not only this, but they have seen through the capitalism promised by the Tory's and can see how they represent the greedy and privileged. They look at the crises in public services and the lack of management of them by the Tory's. What is in it for them if they vote Tory? — Punshhh

Then the talk ought to be about the issues they face.

I'm starting to think that all the wokeness is noise to distract the left. An evil conspiracy to get the people entangled into some culture war and not to face real issues. And it might be working.

Not only this, but they have seen through the capitalism promised by the Tory's and can see how they represent the greedy and privileged. They look at the crises in public services and the lack of management of them by the Tory's. What is in it for them if they vote Tory? — Punshhh

The cringe-making film of the new Cabinet's first meeting, reciting Boris's mantra of '40 new hospitals, 20,000 new police officers,' etc like kids in kindergarten answers that. Removing the obstruction in the Treasury to the new bribe-the-new-Tory-voters policy makes it clear to me what Boris's 'govt of the people' will prioritise. We will probably soon have Tories criticising this wreckless spending. How ironic!

Congratulation to Brexit. I hope we soon have an Itaxit, Spexit, Swexit, Fixit, and more.
Let Merkel and Macaron enjoy their lovey dovey relationship in their shrunken empire.

Well Brexit is going to be interesting from Thursday when the government is going to spell out its negotiating position.

Today the NFU (National Farmers Union), has woken up from its slumber following the fact that the majority of farmers voted for Brexit. The Brexit scales have fallen from their eyes now that reality bites. Today they have asked for an exemption of 70,000 low wage EU seasonal workers to help bring in the crops. When the government announced that there will only be an allowance of 10,000. They have also had a wake up call following the widespread floods and the damage to crops and farmland caused by the new weather. Slowly they are realising that once there is regulatory and tariff divergence from the EU, that many farmers will have tariffs of around 40% imposed from their main markets. And that when the lower US food standards flood the market with cheaper food, which has been acknowledged this week by the trade secretary. The farmers will be unable to compete and most of them will go out of business.

It's unfortunate that the government doesn't care about such smallfry and is going full steam ahead to a low regulation, low tariffs race to the bottom, so as to make Britain great again.

I presume you are in the US?, as you don't sound to be familiar with European politics.

American food is like dog food compared to what you guys eat.

For real.

from the EU, that many farmers will have tariffs of around 40% imposed from their main markets. And that when the lower US food standards flood the market with cheaper food, which has been acknowledged this week by the trade secretary. The farmers will be unable to compete and most of them will go out of business. — Punshhh

Well, if the EU wants to impose punishing tariffs, you might want to blame the EU for that and not your government. And mentioning the highly bureacratic EU in the same sentence as "free market" is a bit strange.
Fwiw, I am not against the original EEC. I am against the EU with its imperalistic overreach.

I presume you are in the US?, as you don't sound to be familiar with European politics. — Punshhh

Presume what you want; that is not an argument. But since we are speculating.... I presume you are a consumer of the BBC, Guardian, Independent and CNN? Your talking points sound pretty familiar.