Based on your reading of the article, how lethal do you think it is? — petrichor

Less than we thought.

:cool:

Sepia and puce.

In a dream lastnight, death walked into the room, as I was staring to see him, the lights were extinguished. In the total darkness I felt helpless and woke up with a fright.

Based on your reading of the article, how lethal do you think it is?

It's not lethal to the human species, it will just clear out some of the dead wood. Wheather it is civilised is another question.

Less than we thought. — frank

How about a rough guess? Give me a number.

Are you saying that since the number of known cases in US now is 4,500 and deaths 88, that if we multiply the knowns by 5 to 10 and divide 88 by that, that the real death rate is likely between 0.2% and 0.4%?

Does the mentioned Chinese data gathered after testing became widespread support such a conclusion?

From the data we have, mortality rate is about 3%, and that consisting mostly of elderly, no? Yes, it is bad but it is not the end of the world. — Nobeernolife

3% is higher than the original estimate of 2%.



I suspect that this thing is eventually going to kill members of my family. Many are older and are smokers and otherwise unhealthy. I'll likely live, as I am relatively healthy, but much pain is coming. End of the world? No. But possibly devastating to me personally.

Are you saying that since the number of known cases in US now is 4,500 and deaths 88, that if we multiply the knowns by 5 to 10 and divide 88 by that, that the real death rate is likely between 0.2% and 0.4%?

These figures don't show the true figure, firstly some of the infected people who are going to die, haven't died yet, they're still in life support. Secondly the Hospitals haven't been overwhelmed yet. So the patients are getting the best intensive care at the moment. But later on scarce resources will be triaged and given to those patients who have more of a chance of survival and those who don't will be left to die, with minimal treatment. So the mortality rate will go up.

Let's hope not.

We had a pretty decent speech yesterday from the Prime Minister. The goal is maximum control so that our health system can cope. They want to avoid a full lock down because not getting any sick means next time corona passes by your have the same problem. So get people sick while the health care system can cope and get some level of group immunity, hopefully the first time it passes through the Netherlands.

The numbers officially reported for the Netherlands are way off, except the deaths of course. The test is not accurate when you don't show symptoms because of low viral load so they decided to not test many people early on. I suspect over 10.000 infected here.

In a dream lastnight, death walked into the room, as I was staring to see him, the lights were extinguished. In the total darkness I felt helpless and woke up with a fright. — Punshhh

Did you really dream that?

Yes, that's what happened. I do need to qualify this, it was a dream, so imaginary, also I can't be entirely sure that it was death who walked in, but all the emotional triggers were tripped. I have encountered this before, so am familiar with the signs.

I do have a history of premonitions in dreams, I think this was a premonition, but it is not clear at the moment if it was, or what it indicated.

These figures don't show the true figure, firstly some of the infected people who are going to die, haven't died yet, they're still in life support. Secondly the Hospitals haven't been overwhelmed yet. — Punshhh

I think you are pointing at the real problem here. It is not just the Corona itself, but the ripple effect. What do you do if all the hospitals are clogged with Corona patients? If so many people need hospital care at once, the system will reach capacity. Better not break your leg while this is going on.

In a dream lastnight, death walked into the room, as I was staring to see him — Punshhh

So death is a he? How sexist. :-)

So death is a he? How sexist. :-)

Which way, discriminatory against women, or men?

I realised that when I was typing, for for artistic effect I decided to go with he.

This disease is no where near as lethal as it originally appeared to be. — frank

It originally appeared to have a case fatality rate of around 3%, which would suggest an actual mortality of 0.3 to 1%.

However, Italy is experiencing a CFR of above 7.5%. So as far as the numbers are concerned, it's actually more lethal. Of course, conditions in Italy are bad and tests are probably limited to severe cases. But it's still an indication that the virus can indeed be at least as dangerous as initially suspected.

Nah, that's def a British accent.

Just checked and he's from north Wales which is why it doesn't sound like an English accent.

My gym is closing now until further notice. :confused:

do have a history of premonitions in dreams, I think this was a premonition, but it is not clear at the moment if it was, or what it indicated. — Punshhh

You'll know after it happens? Cool.

Contacted by Reuters, a spokeswoman for the German Health Ministry said: "We confirm the report in the Welt am Sonntag."

Welt am Sonntag quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists' work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, "but only for the United States.

Such a great guy. :confused:

Such Fake News and misinformation.

Such Fake News and misinformation. — NOS4A2

CureVac say one thing, the German health minister another. Which is the fake news? How am I, the independent third party, to figure that out?

CureVac say one thing, the German health minister another. Which is the fake news? How am I, the independent third party, to figure that out?

Don’t listen to just one side of the story, especially from unidentified sources.

The German health ministry are obviously a more trustworthy source than some random corporation, I would say. And, of course, NOS our local Whitehouse spokestroll, would say that.

It’s not an unidentified source. It’s the German health minister. His name is Jens Spahn.

It’s not an unidentified source. It’s the German health minister. His name is Jens Spahn.

That’s not what the article you posted said.

“ Welt am Sonntag quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists' work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, "but only for the United States."

The goal is maximum control so that our health system can cope. — Benkei

I think this is in many countries the policy. The objective is to curb the epidemic not hitting everybody at the same time, but that it will be more of a slow burner that the health care system can deal with the patients.

"Contacted by Reuters, a spokeswoman for the German Health Ministry said: "We confirm the report in the Welt am Sonntag."

Contacted by Reuters, a spokeswoman for the German Health Ministry said: "We confirm the report in the Welt am Sonntag."

“ A German Health Ministry spokeswoman, confirming a quote in the newspaper, said: "The German government is very interested in ensuring that vaccines and active substances against the new coronavirus are also developed in Germany and Europe."

"In this regard, the government is in intensive exchange with the company CureVac," she added.
Welt am Sonntag quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists' work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, "but only for the United States."

CureVac issued a statement on Sunday, in which it said: "The company rejects current rumors of an acquisition".

The firm said it was in contact with many organizations and authorities worldwide, but would not comment on speculation. It rejected "allegations about offers for acquisition of the company or its technology."”

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/15/world/europe/15reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-usa.html

What's ironic about this is that while calling for others not to trust "one side" of the story, you immediately describe it as "fake news". As far as I'm concerned, it's very plausible, but I wouldn't fully commit myself one way or the other.

:lol:

What's ironic about this is that while calling for others not to trust "one side" of the story, you immediately describe it as "fake news". As far as I'm concerned, it's very plausible, but I wouldn't commit myself one way or the other.

You went on repeat quotes that either did not appear in the article or was removed. Were you sharing real news?

Don't tell me what to do bro. — boethius

But if you're a socialist, you need others to tell you what to do. You need the govt to tell you to wash your hands and to maintain social distancing, and not to go out in large groups. You're like a little worker ant who gets all its instructions from its Queen Mother.

Libertarians don't need to be told what to do. So you're a Libertarian and don't even know it.

Take Michael's quote up with Michael. My point stands. You function here as a government spokesman/Trump spin provider. Nothing more. You're not in a position to talk about unbiased judgements.

But if you're a socialist, you need others to tell you what to do. — Harry Hindu

Why didn't I follow your instruction then? If I "need" others to tell me what to do?

Seems your theory doesn't link predictions to observations. Maybe time to junk your theory because it's not validated by what you can see with your very eyes. If I "needed" people to tell me what do to, I would have done what you say, thankful that you took the lead on this issue.