I think the chart has very bad maths. For the 2.5 rate of infection, I make total infected at thirty days to be about 3715 people, not 406. Anyone want to accept the challenge of verifying how many are infected on those parameters?

I don't have the article to hand right now, but I think Ibuprofen was one. I don't recall prednisone being mentioned.

don't have the article to hand right now, but I think Ibuprofen was one. I don't recall prednisone being mentioned. — Baden

A steroid would diminish immune function. But ibuprofen? That's wacky.

In the absence of further info on how their calculation was done, I make it 244. Remember, it's every 5 days, not every day.

Day 1: 1 case + rate of spread = x 2.5 in 5 days.
So,
Day 5: 1 x 2.5 = 2.5
Day 10: 2.5 x 2.5= 6.25
Day 15: 6.25 x 2.5 = 15.6
Day 20: 15.6 x 2.5 = 39
Day 25: 39 x 2.5 = 97.6
Day 30: 97.6 x 2.5 = 244

I'll check it when I dig up the article.

@frank

Can't find the article. There's this too: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

Mentions Ibuprofen. But I'm finding conflicting advice online tbh.

its not saying x are affected every 5 days only the first 5... hoping a math nerd will further explain. :mask:

I know, I'm just making the simplest inference. Gives me a result not too far off.

I'm working at home now. I finished my day and went out to smoke a cigarette on my porch. A very drunk man walked by, looked up, made eye contact, and moved toward me. There was snot running down his nose. He asked for a cigarette after a while. I gave him one, outstretched hand. Then he asked for a lighter. I lit his cigarette instead.He said 'god bless' He left, fell down, cigarette went out, and walked back. I lit it again. He said 'god bless' He left and fell down again. I didn't move to help him up. He said 'Man this sucks"

That was the bleak moment. All in All, there's actually a giddy feeling of camaradarie I've noticed. I almost prefer it, tbh.

Its completely bizarre. I'm on Cloud 9. Like being in a movie.

This just from the alcoholism :rofl:

Think I would have thrown him the pack and ran away. What you did was good too though.

Like this, with some rounding.

....................................5 days..........10 days..........15 days.........20 days..........25 days.........30 days
Pt. zero.....infects.........2.5...................5..................7.5.................10...................12.5................15
pts. 2.5......infect..................................6.25.............12.5................19....................25..................32
pts. 11.25..infect.......................................................28...................56....................84..................112
pts. 48.......infect.............................................................................120..................240.................360
pts. 205.....infect.....................................................................................................512...............1024
pts. 873.....infect...........................................................................................................................2183
.....................................................................................................number infected at 30 days = 3826

I think you can see how this works.

I haven't been reading this thread because until last night I've been completely unaffected by coronavirus and trying not to worry about it because I've just finished up a year of near-constant existential dread and didn't want to spiral back into it again over "what's probably nothing really, just the usual world-is-ending news cycle".

In my county there's still only been one confirmed case, and they're in quarantine. Life around me continues as normal. It's a beautiful spring, even though it's raining unusually much for this time of year. All kinds of birds and bunnies and butterflies and flowers everywhere.

I work from home normally, and all of my coworkers have the option to do that, so even if we did have to do social distancing, I thought, that won't affect my line of work.

Then yesterday (Monday) instead of the usual start-of-the-week slam, we only had 20% of the normal workload. Because since so many other people can't go to work, they don't have any money to spend, which means other businesses have less money to pay their employees, so those people get sent home or laid off, and then they're not spending money which means the same process repeats elsewhere, until eventually even my tiny isolated otherwise-unaffected company loses all our customers as the whole economy shuts down.

So at the end of the work day yesterday, the boss cut all our hours (and thus pay) in half indefinitely, as a desperate measure to buy the company a few months until this all blows over.

I've been setting aside a third of my take-home income for a down payment on a house for years and so I've got a big income cushion and a pile of money to fall back on, so if I end up just having to tread water (or sink slowly) for a few weeks or even months to get back to my old life, that's fine with me, and I know I've got things way, way better than a whole lot of other people in that regard. But I'm really terrified that the business might not be able to hold out for that as long as I can, and I might not have the opportunity to get back to my old life at all.

The business that will boom in the future is psychology and psychiatry. People will need help to feel normal again once things act more normal again

Mentions Ibuprofen. But I'm finding conflicting advice online tbh.

I keep hearing doctors saying that Ibuprofen shouldn't be a problem because it is a mild anti inflammatory and doesn't suppress the immune system. But there has been a scare in France, so as a precaution people are being advised to use paracetamol instead.

That's interesting. The pillar image is creepy!

Yes, I've got conflicting info on that. Reserving judgement for now.

Why didn't I follow your instruction then? If I "need" others to tell me what to do?

Seems your theory doesn't link predictions to observations. Maybe time to junk your theory because it's not validated by what you can see with your very eyes. If I "needed" people to tell me what do to, I would have done what you say, thankful that you took the lead on this issue. — boethius

Like I said in the rest of the post that you cherry-picked, if you don't like people telling you what to do, you're a Libertarian and don't even know it. In other words,

Don't tell me what to do bro. — boethius

...spoken like a true Libertarian.



Your "theory" entails not using your eyes to read the rest of someone's post before responding to it. :roll:

A steroid would diminish immune function. But ibuprofen? That's wacky. — frank

It's not completely wacky. Ibuprofen is an anti-inflammatory, and inflammation is an immune response.

Any bets on what the word of the year will be this year? I’m guessing either self-isolation or social distancing.

WHO Now Officially Recommends to Avoid Taking Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Symptoms

Good thing I managed to find paracetamol yesterday (searched half a dozen shops). All I had is ibuprofen.

I've already found the way it will be referred to.

Before Corona, BC.
After Corona, AC.

Good thing I managed to find paracetamol yesterday (searched half a dozen shops). All I had is ibuprofen. — Michael

My recommendation is that you call paracetamol either Tylenol or acetaminophen so that someone might know what you're talking about.

Which country are you in?
You should get financial support from your government and for your company.

Peculiarly I am going to be ok, I have just secured a big contract for a years work. Which will go ahead regardless, unless my clients die, they are retired though. Even without that contract I will be financially secure. My concern is more for some vulnerable parents.

My recommendation is that you call paracetamol either Tylenol or acetaminophen so that someone might know what you're talking about. — Hanover

The only people who won't know what I mean by paracetamol are Americans and Americans don't matter.

The only people who won't know what I mean by paracetamol are Americans and Americans don't matter. — Michael

Then why did God put America in the center of the universe?

United States. And you’re right that we should get that support. It remains to be seen if we will. Shockingly, even Republicans seem to be considering a temporary Universal Basic Income as a possible solution.

It's all about the curve. Voluntary and enforced social distancing worked in China and now, looking at today's figures, seems to be working in Italy. Pretty simple folks, shut up and copy what works. — Baden

In the Nordic countries Sweden looks to have opted for a somewhat different approach than Norway, Denmark and Finland.

It has kept it's schools and borders open (although it has urged against non-essential travel) and is more thinking of that "herd immunity" option. As people are already taking precautions, I think the effect on the actual epidemic may not differ so much, but the economic impact might differ. (From the historical viewpoint, Sweden usually has took a lot more care of it's economy than my country.)